The Playoff Hunt. Flames Vs Wild Vs Blues

[united]

The Athletic’s update after last night. Win and hardly move.

- The Flames are at 13% (+2%) to make playoffs.
- The Flames' median finish is 92 points, 6 points out of the playoffs assuming the Blues hold the tie-breaker.
- The Flames are once again most likely to pick 16th overall (-1).
- The Flames are projected to finish 10 points out of the top 10 (illustrative only as cannot finish top 10 at this point).

[Robbob]

Obviously the game tonight is huge. I think Minny has to be the target because we have that head to head with them still . Even with the Blues playing COL, WPG, and EDM in their next 3 games, they are hitting all the right buttons right now.

A 3 game losing streak by both MIN and STL would really make the end of the season interesting.

[Paulie Walnuts]

It kind of feels like do or die. A Wild loss and Flames win makes it 3 points. A Wild win and Flames loss makes it 7 points and lights out pretty much.

[Duffalufagus]

Only chance is for the Wild to go 2-4 or worse over their next 6. If they go 3-3 the Flames will have to go 6-1, which is not going to happen.

We need a Wild collapse.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

It was over before the season started haha.

You just knew it would be:

1. No playoffs
2. No top 10 pick
3. Give away the best of our three 1sts
4. Finish with more points than some eastern playoff teams

Flames fandom. Its not for the weak hearted.

There is no doubt that the final outcome of the season is very Calgary Flames finishing out of the playoffs and drafting in the mid-teens but this season was different than past failed seasons. In the past the Flames had more talented rosters that just wilted down the stretch to finish just out of the playoffs. This season they were expected to be a bottom 5 team and overachieved their way into this unenviable situation. Little doubt this is probably worst case scenario in relation to the draft but I suppose we have to take the positives in that the coaches did a fine job, Huby and Kadri played to the levels of their contracts for the most part, and the long term solution at the goaltender position looks to have been solidified. It's going to sting at the draft watching the Habs pick ahead of the Flames but there's nothing that can be done about that (Treliving can no longer hurt this organization) and we just have to hope the Flames scouts can unearth a few good players.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

It kind of feels like do or die. A Wild loss and Flames win makes it 3 points. A Wild win and Flames loss makes it 7 points and lights out pretty much.

If they can get to the Apr 11th head to head game and be close then that game will be the difference. Flames, Blues and Wild all play 3 games leading up to that head to head on the 11th.

CGY has games LV, @SJ, @ANA
STL has games COL, @WPG, @EDM
MIN has games @NYI, DAL, SJ

Flames go 2-1 and the others go 1-2 it will bring the magic number down to 5 for the Flames for each team. The Flames win that H2H in regulation and it goes down to 3 with Flames having 3 games left and the Wild 2.

Half glass full me can see a path there. Blues would need to go 0-3 or the Flames 3-0 in this next stretch, I think, to be brought back into the conversation.

[LokiMotion]

Originally Posted by united

The Athletic’s update after last night. Win and hardly move.

- The Flames are at 13% (+2%) to make playoffs.
- The Flames' median finish is 92 points, 6 points out of the playoffs assuming the Blues hold the tie-breaker.
- The Flames are once again most likely to pick 16th overall (-1).
- The Flames are projected to finish 10 points out of the top 10 (illustrative only as cannot finish top 10 at this point).

Its crazy that because of the Blues' insane run that the wildcard is now projected at 97/98 points! Has that ever happened?

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Simple solution, in the event of a east-vs-west series (other than the final), game 6 happens in the higher seed's city to cut down on travel.

They tried the 2-3-2 format in the late 80's in the Stanley Cup. But the argument against it is that if the first 2 games get split the lower seed than get's 3 straight home games. So the higher team potentially loses a home date be it in a win or a loss if it's a 5 game series, and there's risk that if you're down 3-1, you face game 5 on the road where you have a better chance of losing. So to an owner that will matter because if you're the Capitals and you wax the Flames in 5...but than Carolina kicks your ass in 4. You got 4 home games instead of 5...and that cost you more revenue than a middle class lowlife like me will earn in my life. Whereas if you play a team like Montreal, you still only made one trip it was a lot shorter and you got an extra home game. So that is why it's not going to happen.

[Duffalufagus]

Originally Posted by Robbob

If they can get to the Apr 11th head to head game and be close then that game will be the difference. Flames, Blues and Wild all play 3 games leading up to that head to head on the 11th.

CGY has games LV, @SJ, @ANA
STL has games COL, @WPG, @EDM
MIN has games @NYI, DAL, SJ

Flames go 2-1 and the others go 1-2 it will bring the magic number down to 5 for the Flames for each team. The Flames win that H2H in regulation and it goes down to 3 with Flames having 3 games left and the Wild 2.

Half glass full me can see a path there. Blues would need to go 0-3 or the Flames 3-0 in this next stretch, I think, to be brought back into the conversation.

It is very simple actually. If the Wild have anything better than a .500 record over their next 6, it is over.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by LokiMotion

Its crazy that because of the Blues' insane run that the wildcard is now projected at 97/98 points! Has that ever happened?

Right now I have both the Blues and Wild pacing around 96 based on their season to date numbers. The reason the Snake is at 96 is because no team that's finished with 96 points has missed yet. There's been 9th place teams at 95 where the 8th place team was 97. The Flames are looking at likely being a 92 point team which more years than not will land you outside the playoffs.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

It is very simple actually. If the Wild have anything better than a .500 record over their next 6, it is over.

Take it one week at a time. I actually think after the April 9th games we should know where things are and if that head to head will mean anything. If it does, and the Flames win, MIN has 2 games left with one of them the next day on the 12th in Vancouver.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

They tried the 2-3-2 format in the late 80's in the Stanley Cup. But the argument against it is that if the first 2 games get split the lower seed than get's 3 straight home games. So the higher team potentially loses a home date be it in a win or a loss if it's a 5 game series, and there's risk that if you're down 3-1, you face game 5 on the road where you have a better chance of losing. So to an owner that will matter because if you're the Capitals and you wax the Flames in 5...but than Carolina kicks your ass in 4. You got 4 home games instead of 5...and that cost you more revenue than a middle class lowlife like me will earn in my life. Whereas if you play a team like Montreal, you still only made one trip it was a lot shorter and you got an extra home game. So that is why it's not going to happen.

I'm not suggesting 2-3-2. I'm suggesting 2-2-3. Higher seed gets 5 of the 7 games at home.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

I'm not suggesting 2-3-2. I'm suggesting 2-2-3. Higher seed gets 5 of the 7 games at home.

Teams would never agree to that based on revenues

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Teams would never agree to that based on revenues

Really? A team that normally wouldn't make the playoffs at all now suddenly gets 2 home games and more if they advance? Who would refuse that?

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Really? A team that normally wouldn't make the playoffs at all now suddenly gets 2 home games and more if they advance? Who would refuse that?

I could see higher seed teams not liking the travel. Say the Kings have to play the Bruins because of a wild card cross over and end up losing. Than the Sharks and Ducks was the other series and now that team is in a 7 game series that's a 4-3 format instead of your 5-2. The winner of that series than plays the central team who's never left that time zone.

So I don't see owners wanting to do this to accommodate the 15th and 16th best teams in the league. Most owners who make the playoffs are hoping that they get 3 home playoff games in every series. So the idea of fewer good rich teams getting more home playoff games through the playoffs likely isn't popular league wide.

So are owners going to agree the higher aee

[Paulie Walnuts]

A crossover between east and west outside of the finals is a stupid idea. If you can't make the playoffs in your conference you don't deserve to make it, pretty simple. Plus, most of the series end up being divisional anyways.

It works for the CFL because they have 9 teams, and the crossover game is usually 1 game.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Au contraire, I think it's a great idea - provided teams sign off on it, and strictly for wildcard positions.

If you're a top 16 team, you're a top 16 team. Teams shouldn't get cut because they play in a stronger division.

Make WC positions interchangeable across the league. Then there's more intrigue in the other conference down the stretch. More eyeballs on games.

There may be 10 western teams ahead of where Montreal finishes and they'll see playoffs. This needs to end!

Also every one is getting sick of the in-division match ups for the first two rounds. Watching Edmonton and LA play each other, and Toronto facing either Boston or Tampa Bay every single year is getting old.

Back to 1 v. 8

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

It works for the CFL because they have 9 teams, and the crossover game is usually 1 game.

It would be two at most, and since it's a single game all it does is make the home team play a better team who had to travel further, and one of the teams has a bye anyways. So it doesn't hinder the better home team at all.

In best of 7 with both teams travelling and 4 rounds of playoffs like this...it's way more complex.

[FBI]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

It isn't totally bleak.

1. Found goalie of the future
2. 4 first round picks in the next two drafts
3. Defense prospect pool looks really good
4. tons of cap space looking at the future

Don’t forget no more worrying about giving away our stupid 1st round pick anymore and trying to figure out some dumbass conditions.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I could see higher seed teams not liking the travel. Say the Kings have to play the Bruins because of a wild card cross over and end up losing. Than the Sharks and Ducks was the other series and now that team is in a 7 game series that's a 4-3 format instead of your 5-2. The winner of that series than plays the central team who's never left that time zone.

So I don't see owners wanting to do this to accommodate the 15th and 16th best teams in the league. Most owners who make the playoffs are hoping that they get 3 home playoff games in every series. So the idea of fewer good rich teams getting more home playoff games through the playoffs likely isn't popular league wide.

So are owners going to agree the higher aee

Hmm. If the Flames get 95 points and miss, while the Habs make it with 90 or fewer points, I'm going to have a hard time being convinced that there shouldn't be a crossover spot.

Our boys taking on Ovi & the Caps in round 1 sounds a lot more exciting than early tee times.

I don't think travel is as much an issue as some make it out to be. As long as there's travel between the cities no more than twice during the series.