Dustin Wolf discussion thread

[Paulie Walnuts]

I think Tkachuk had his mind made up. I don't think he was allowed to be himself under Sutter like he wants to be.

Sutter called him a powerful player who can play as a power forward and I just don't think that is the type of game he wants to play. He has his own style.

[AustinL_NHL]

Oh, and who's tied for first with Kochetkov for the most goalie points this season with 3?

Wolf.

Watching him play the puck is another spectacular part of his game

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

I disagree. I think he would have signed an 8 year $8M deal, bringing him to UFA at 29, which would have given him an opportunity to sign another max deal at whatever salary cap going rate it would be in two years. I think he left millions on the table because he didn't get that 8 year deal.

He wouldn’t have signed that when Marner got $10.9x6 and Matthews got $11.6Mx5 in the same offseasons. Only slight chance in hell that deal ever could have got made is if they signed him a full year out after his second year where he scored 49pts in 68 games as a sophomore but why would he have extended for 8 years a full year early?

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

I think Tkachuk had his mind made up. I don't think he was allowed to be himself under Sutter like he wants to be.

Sutter called him a powerful player who can play as a power forward and I just don't think that is the type of game he wants to play. He has his own style.

Gaudreau leaving was definitely part of the decision making process. Straight from a guy I know who actually interacts with the players. Tkachuk still might left but it would have been a harder decision.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Sign that man to max term. 25-33 will take him through his prime, or at least most of the "goalie" prime.

Well unfortunately his age is a big reason he may want to bank on himself and not take a 7 or 8 year deal, as he would likely want to sign one more 8 year, massive deal near the end of his 20's. I understand that goalies are different and often play well in their mid 30's still, but not all of them and he may not want to bank on that happening. So back of napkin math on his options


Sign 8 years in Calgary at say $7.5mil, then hope that you haven't had injury issues or just plain drop off in play as goalies often do and can't secure much of a next contract at 33 years old. Total $60mil + one more small contract, or;

Sign 3- 4 years in Calgary at $6mil then bank on being a superstar goalie that is now a free agent in the league at 28/29 years old and with the cap rising significantly in that 3- 4 years and full free agency you may be the highest paid goalie ever like $16-$18mil over 7 years. Now you're looking at like $140mil in career earnings after banking on yourself.

[Groot]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Sign 3- 4 years in Calgary at $6mil then bank on being a superstar goalie that is now a free agent in the league at 28/29 years old and with the cap rising significantly in that 3- 4 years and full free agency you may be the highest paid goalie ever like $16-$18mil over 7 years. Now you're looking at like $140mil in career earnings after banking on yourself.

Do you honestly believe that in 4 years any goalie is going to sign for >$16 million per year? You don't really, do you? Shesterkin just signed for what should be 12.4% of the cap if it goes to $92.4 as projected by Bettman.

[jayswin]

Point being it will likely be quite a bit higher than what it would be today for a UFA goalie.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I still think Tkachuk would have stayed if Gaudreau stayed. That was the real turning point IMO.

Looking back, I really wish the Flames had accepted Johnny’s offer to come back after UFA began.

Either Tkachuk would’ve stayed, or we could’ve done the Huberdeau trade and it would’ve made sense because we’d just play him with Gaudreau and Lindholm.

2021 Huberdeau and 2021 Gaudreau together would’ve been some saucy hockey.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by Groot

Do you honestly believe that in 4 years any goalie is going to sign for >$16 million per year? You don't really, do you? Shesterkin just signed for what should be 12.4% of the cap if it goes to $92.4 as projected by Bettman.

When Markstrom signed his $6m X 6 deal four years ago, did you expect that any goalie would be signing for $11.5m? I didn't, but the cap is going up and teams are putting a premium on goalies again.

If the cap goes up 5% a year after next, the equivalent is around $14m. It's an interesting point and likely one that Shesterkin's agent and any other agent negotiating right now is making to push for the big contract (or hold out for the increasing cap).

I do think the team's relationship with Wolf is good and they'll both want to have some security... Wolf also understands that this may only be his one shot at hitting big, as other goalies have done well to start their careers and fizzled out.

Wolf probably would also appreciate the team building a cup contender around him, and that's the big sell that Conroy will have to make... if he's even looking to lock him up long term at this point.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

Oh, and who's tied for first with Kochetkov for the most goalie points this season with 3?

Wolf.

Watching him play the puck is another spectacular part of his game

For all the tire pumping of Smith and Markstrom's puck handling, I think we upgraded quite honestly.

He picks his spots better and isn't nearly as reckless with the puck.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Not only that, but the goalie market is shifting the last couple years. Teams/agents/goalies are collectively deciding that the position will now be paid just like star players.

Going forward a top tier goalie is going to start with an 8 with the superstar ones getting 11+. Wolf is looking like he'll be top tier minimum, and a good chance he'll be a super star, likely pushing him to 11+ on an 8 year deal.

5 goaltenders in the entire league that make 8+ this year. 6 starting next year with the Shesterkin deal.

2 of those are cup winners.

Wolf hasnt even played a full season yet. He just doesn't have the leverage to squeeze Conroy for that kind of dough.

I agree you ink him this July for as long as he will go for.

Its unlikely. IMO. that the number starts with an 8 though.

[Paulie Walnuts]

If Wolf signs for anything under 8 on a 8 year deal Conroy should be the next prime minister.

[DeluxeMoustache]

I’ll say this. I wouldn’t pay many goalies. Too many have success as a product of the team play

But Wolf is special. His anticipation, fundamentals and lateral movement are elite. Full stop

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by YyjFlames

When Markstrom signed his $6m X 6 deal four years ago, did you expect that any goalie would be signing for $11.5m? I didn't, but the cap is going up and teams are putting a premium on goalies again.

If the cap goes up 5% a year after next, the equivalent is around $14m. It's an interesting point and likely one that Shesterkin's agent and any other agent negotiating right now is making to push for the big contract (or hold out for the increasing cap).

I do think the team's relationship with Wolf is good and they'll both want to have some security... Wolf also understands that this may only be his one shot at hitting big, as other goalies have done well to start their careers and fizzled out.

Wolf probably would also appreciate the team building a cup contender around him, and that's the big sell that Conroy will have to make... if he's even looking to lock him up long term at this point.

There were already goalies signing for $10.5M.

Markstrom signed in a flat cap COVID era, completely unprecedented. You would’ve seen contracts bigger than Price’s years ago if not for that.

Whatever he signs for - $8M, 9M - he’s the same level of set, and I doubt he wants to gamble on a few extra million that his money guy could easily the

. Goalies thrive on stability, so unless the Flames give him a reason to want to bail, I think Wolf signs for max term with the only pro organization he’s ever known.

[Groot]

Originally Posted by YyjFlames

If the cap goes up 5% a year after next, the equivalent is around $14m. It's an interesting point and likely one that Shesterkin's agent and any other agent negotiating right now is making to push for the big contract (or hold out for the increasing cap).

If the cap year after next went up 5% then the cap would go up $4.62 million (5% of $92.4) for a salary cap of $97.02 million. 12.4% of that cap is equal to $12.03 million AAV, not $14. The cap would have to be at least $129 million for a goalie to get $16 million AAV at the same cap percentage Shesterkin just signed ($129 million x 12.4% is $15.996 million AAV).

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

If Wolf signs for anything under 8 on a 8 year deal Conroy should be the next prime minister.

Couldn't be any worse than the current one.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

Couldn't be any worse than the current one.

Hahahahahahahahahahahah!!!!!!

[jg13]

If the Flames make the playoffs this year on Wolf I believe both parties would be happy to sign 8x8 this July.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I’ll say this. I wouldn’t pay many goalies. Too many have success as a product of the team play

But Wolf is special. His anticipation, fundamentals and lateral movement are elite. Full stop

He seems super driven too… the team would know more about that.

[indes]

I gamble on Wolf for sure. It's a risk, but I think it's worth taking with how the goalie market is shaking out. 8yrs at anything under 8.5 and even if he doesn't improve at all, we come out like bandits. If he falls off for some reason, well that'll suck but I think it's better than the possibility of having the highest paid goalie in the league.