[News] LeBrun/Dreger - Flames open for Business

[Vinny01]

Retaining for 5+ years is not ideal at all. I bet they use all 3 slots this year but would be surprised if they carry dead cap for multiple years.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Which is also why Vanecek with an extra year was already having me squirm because I know Edwards likely isn’t for it.

Can’t they just keep Vanacek? Amos can be sent down without waivers so no need for the flames to take another goalie back especially one that has a decent sized NHL contract.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Retaining for 5+ years is not ideal at all. I bet they use all 3 slots this year but would be surprised if they carry dead cap for multiple years.

Yeah you're better off using those retention slots to maximize on 3 of the UFAs you're trading this year.

Then in the offseason maybe you could retain on one of the longer term deals but even then I think it would be more likely that it's a bad contract coming back the other way.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Jiggy

They've bought out players in the past which is the same thing as retaining on a trade.

Well I'm not exactly sure about that. Buyouts save the team 1/3 of the remaining salary to be paid (assuming none of it is paid in signing bonuses) so it effectively saves the team money on that player.

You can say that the team will then just go out and sign another player for the cap that is saved. That would be correct, but they still have to operate within the salary cap.

Retaining salary effectively allows teams to buy cap space. Buyouts do not do that.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Steinberg mentioned a week ago that he heard retention is on the table if it improves trade value.

Well that should then not only increase the return but also increase the amount of potential trading partners = bigger market and more competition.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Well I'm not exactly sure about that. Buyouts save the team 1/3 of the remaining salary to be paid (assuming none of it is paid in signing bonuses) so it effectively saves the team money on that player.

You can say that the team will then just go out and sign another player for the cap that is saved. That would be correct, but they still have to operate within the salary cap.

Retaining salary effectively allows teams to buy cap space. Buyouts do not do that.

You shouldn't assume that with buyouts that Calgary will still spend up the salary cap, as the actual dollars spent does matter to Calgary.

One of the reasons why the Lucic deal was done by Calgary was it saved a lot of actual dollars, which allowed Calagry to spend to the cap that year.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Even there St.Louis had a 3rd, 4th and a 5th overall plus a bunch of other players that were first rounders.

So, again, just like virtually every team in the League who has also not won the Stanley Cup in the last 20 years. The Flames presently have a #3, #5, #6, #7, #16, and two #24s in their lineup.

[Harry Lime]

This thread has made me 100% sure that it's vladar getting moved.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

You shouldn't assume that with buyouts that Calgary will still spend up the salary cap, as the actual dollars spent does matter to Calgary.

One of the reasons why the Lucic deal was done by Calgary was it saved a lot of actual dollars, which allowed Calagry to spend to the cap that year.

I'm not even sure what we're discussing anymore.

[NewFan]

This season:
Trade Lindholm, Hanifin, Tanev & Zadorov. Use all 3 salary retention to increase return.
Next season:
Trade Kadri, Weegar, Mangiapane, Markstrom. Retain some salary for Mangiapane & Markstrom
Third season:
Trade Backlund, Coleman.
Fourth year:
Give Coronato or Pelletier C and start fight for playoff spot.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Missing is Detroit, who won in 2008. And while Boston won in 2011, their selection of Tyler Seguin the previous summer was arguably irrelevant to this discussion, having played only 13 playoff games. The same holds for the Anaheim Ducks. So, that is actually five out of the last twelve Cup winners who either did not draft in the top-two, or whose top-two selections had nothing to do with their championships.

When ever this conversation comes up about rebuilds, what is almost missed is that most of those cup winners got extreme value from picks outside the top of the draft.

Bruins hit on late picks with Lucic, Marchand, Bergeron, and Kreji. The later 3 were the top 3 scorers on the team on their run.

Tampa probably doesn't get their cups without the contributions from late picks like Kucherov, and Point. Both years they were top scorers.

Off the top of my head, Pittsburgh is one of the few teams that you look back to and can say that the top 3 picks, they selected, carried the team. Maybe Chicago as well, but they also had a bunch of picks outside the top of the draft that contributed.

[GioforPM]

One thing about retention v buyouts. The CBA expires in 4 years. A buyout might become easier then. There may be compliance buyouts.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Keep wishing there is another way. There is not . Please tell me the Stanley Cup winning teams that did it another way in the post cap era.

Two out of 15. And we aren’t an expansion team so our path is 1/14. Not odds I would take but hey anything “can” happen if we just hope hard enough !

When did the Flames build a top team post cap era ?

Are you seriously considering two first round playoff series wins in the BT era “building a top team “

We’ll I will have to concede this to you then . If the goal is 2 playoff series wins every decade the Flames can absolutely do that again without a top 2 pick!

Strange that the argument for not needing to tank to build a winning team would be the Flames “success” doing it the other way.

Your guys argument for not tanking and getting a top pick is that it doesn’t guarantee you a cup. No kidding . Nothing guarantees a cup .

But your odds sure are good/improved - 40% of first overall picks in the 15 years after the cap won at least one cup . I would take a 40% chance at winning a cup over that players career on my team ( and it was surprisingly even higher for 2nd overall picks at over 50%) - granted some play on the same team even further showing that multiple top 2 picks exponentially increases the chance of a cup - The Oilers are the only team to not win with multiple top picks

Don’t let Edmontons incompetence cloud the fact it is how you win a championship .

A couple of things regarding the odds. So in order to get those 40% odds you still need to win the lottery. That's about 1/4 at best, so the absolute best case scenario of finishing last gives you a ~10% chance to win a cup.

Another thing you don't account for is when said player wins the cup. Most of them win it much later in their career, after the first 7 years of team control.

Here's a list of first overall picks drafted after 2008 with a cup: MacKinnon! That's it.

A deeper dive:
- Eichel drafted(2nd) in 2015, traded, first cup in 2023
- MacKinnon drafted in 2013, first cup in 2022
- Stamkos drafted in 2008, first cup in 2020
- Hedman (2nd) drafted in 2009 first cup in 2020
- I can't remember who was the top draft pick in STL
- Ovechkin drafted in 2004 first cup in 2018
- Backstrom(4th) drafted in 2006 first cup in 2018

Sid is the exception not the rule. My point is that even if you get a top player like Tkachuk or McDavid, that player will have the option to leave before a team has had enough cracks at a cup.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Robbob

When ever this conversation comes up about rebuilds, what is almost missed is that most of those cup winners got extreme value from picks outside the top of the draft.

Bruins hit on late picks with Lucic, Marchand, Bergeron, and Kreji. The later 3 were the top 3 scorers on the team on their run.

Tampa probably doesn't get their cups without the contributions from late picks like Kucherov, and Point. Both years they were top scorers.

Off the top of my head, Pittsburgh is one of the few teams that you look back to and can say that the top 3 picks, they selected, carried the team. Maybe Chicago as well, but they also had a bunch of picks outside the top of the draft that contributed.

This is the oiler failure. No success after round one.

And of Tampa’s high picks (Stamkos and Herman ) were from the previous bottoming out 10 years before their recent cup wins. That doesn’t really count as part of the rebuild.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

A couple of things regarding the odds. So in order to get those 40% odds you still need to win the lottery. That's about 1/4 at best, so the absolute best case scenario of finishing last gives you a ~10% chance to win a cup.

Another thing you don't account for is when said player wins the cup. Most of them win it much later in their career, after the first 7 years of team control.

Here's a list of first overall picks drafted after 2008 with a cup: MacKinnon! That's it.

A deeper dive:
- Eichel drafted(2nd) in 2015, traded, first cup in 2023
- MacKinnon drafted in 2013, first cup in 2022
- Stamkos drafted in 2008, first cup in 2020
- Hedman (2nd) drafted in 2009 first cup in 2020
- I can't remember who was the top draft pick in STL
- Ovechkin drafted in 2004 first cup in 2018
- Backstrom(4th) drafted in 2006 first cup in 2018

Sid is the exception not the rule. My point is that even if you get a top player like Tkachuk or McDavid, that player will have the option to leave before a team has had enough cracks at a cup.

This too often gets overlooked.

For Colorado, Tampa, Washington, etc it was generally about 12-14 years after their first top 3 pick that they won the cup. Hawks and Kings won close to their top pick, but had been bad for years before making those picks.

Pittsburgh is the exception (they also won the Crosby lottery) but for the most part but generally the teams are really bad for a while first.

IMO the key is still less about drafting top 3, and more about just drafting well overall. The key for all these teams was strong depth to go along with the star players due to strong overall drafting and player development.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by NewFan

This season:
Trade Lindholm, Hanifin, Tanev & Zadorov. Use all 3 salary retention to increase return.
Next season:
Trade Kadri, Weegar, Mangiapane, Markstrom. Retain some salary for Mangiapane & Markstrom
Third season:
Trade Backlund, Coleman.
Fourth year:
Give Coronato or Pelletier C and start fight for playoff spot.

Fourth year fighting for a playoff spot is likely not paticularlly realistic.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

One thing about retention v buyouts. The CBA expired in 4 years. A buyout might become easier then. There may be compliance buyouts.

I can't imagine that there will be compliance buyout period. I think due to paying back for the Covid seasons, the cap has been suppressed, but we are past that now. In 4 years the cap will probably be 12-16M higher than it is today. I can't imagine a scenario where they will give teams that compliance buyout.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I can't imagine that there will be compliance buyout period. I think due to paying back for the Covid seasons, the cap has been suppressed, but we are past that now. In 4 years the cap will probably be 12-16M higher than it is today. I can't imagine a scenario where they will give teams that compliance buyout.

I can only because the owners will push hard to be able to do it.

I think that 12-16M highr in 4 years is pretty rosy. $3-4M increase per year? (If you are right, buyouts will be far less needed anyway).

[HighLifeMan]

What the longest deal an NHL team has actually retained on? It simply isn't happening with Kadri or Huberdeau. That's just silly.

It's far to valuable to have those retention spots available each year in a cap world for a rebuilding team. Being able to retain money is almost a necessity at this point in order to facilitate trades. That flexibility is crucial and far more valuable than any retention would offer on a long term boat anchor.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

A couple of things regarding the odds. So in order to get those 40% odds you still need to win the lottery. That's about 1/4 at best, so the absolute best case scenario of finishing last gives you a ~10% chance to win a cup.

Another thing you don't account for is when said player wins the cup. Most of them win it much later in their career, after the first 7 years of team control.

Here's a list of first overall picks drafted after 2008 with a cup: MacKinnon! That's it.

A deeper dive:
- Eichel drafted(2nd) in 2015, traded, first cup in 2023
- MacKinnon drafted in 2013, first cup in 2022
- Stamkos drafted in 2008, first cup in 2020
- Hedman (2nd) drafted in 2009 first cup in 2020
- I can't remember who was the top draft pick in STL
- Ovechkin drafted in 2004 first cup in 2018
- Backstrom(4th) drafted in 2006 first cup in 2018

Sid is the exception not the rule. My point is that even if you get a top player like Tkachuk or McDavid, that player will have the option to leave before a team has had enough cracks at a cup.

True I left a 5 year window after being drafted - maybe the real window is 10 years after .

And yea players can leave - however they don’t . Teams ensure they lock them up . In fact there a reason the FA market is usually so bad . Calgarys failure to retain their talent is a historic mistake that GMs will not replicate .

If you look at the list of top picks there’s one that left via trade and went to another team and won the cup . And he demanded a trade.

But the odds are effectively zero if you don’t acquire the top talent . And usually why a team is bad for 3-5 years before building up.

Flames need to be BAD for 3-4 years , have 3-4 lottery shots at a top pick, and also hit on some later round guys . That’s how you win a cup

Does it guarantee a cup ? Nothing guarantees . That’s why it’s called a strategy . You give yourself the the best opportunity to execute the ultimate goal - winning a cup

Or I guess hope Zary turns into McKinnon , Wolfe into Brodeur , and someone into Makar . I know which strategic route make sense to me

The delusion that the Flames in their current form can be competitive any other way astounds me .