CP Mafia 2 - Town Square Showdown - Game Over - Page 14 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Hockeyguy15 · 05-01-2014, 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

Here is a crazy theory that I have been working on. It is a risky one but possibly sound.
The goal is to end up with 9 players remaining. Eight mafia and one townie. The townie then reveals himself to be a townie. The two mafia teams have to kill each other off to avoid losing in a sort of prisoners dilemma and the townies win.
Maybe everyone who is a townie reveal themselves as such and we start killing off the townies on purpose to force the mafia to kill each other.

No that won't work, you need more than 1 town person alive to win.

dsavillian · 05-01-2014, 10:12 AM

Revealing who the cop is on day one might be one of the worst ideas I've ever heard in a mafia game

the "everyone reveal that they are townies" is a terrible idea too, but that explanation is too long for me to get into right now.

Hockeyguy15 · 05-01-2014, 10:13 AM

I should add more.

Because if you end up with 1 town and 1 mafia, the mafia automatically wins according to the rules.

DropIt · 05-01-2014, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

Here is a crazy theory that I have been working on. It is a risky one but possibly sound.
The goal is to end up with 9 players remaining. Eight mafia and one townie. The townie then reveals himself to be a townie. The two mafia teams have to kill each other off to avoid losing in a sort of prisoners dilemma and the townies win.
Maybe everyone who is a townie reveal themselves as such and we start killing off the townies on purpose to force the mafia to kill each other.

Doesnt the mafia win if the number of townies is equal to or less than the number of mafia members?

GP_Matt · 05-01-2014, 10:17 AM

But if you end up with one townie and one mafia from each faction going into the night there are three scenarios. The mafia members need to spend their night actions killing the townie so both of them should have that as their goal, but if one kills the townie and the other kills mafia the second guy wins. They both know this and know that the other guy can figure it out so their only move is to kill the mafia and hope he kills the townie. If they both do that the townie wins.

Street Pharmacist · 05-01-2014, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DropIt

Doesnt the mafia win if the number of townies is equal to or less than the number of mafia members?

In one team. That's just because they'll have enough votes to kill the rest of the townies/other Mafia so it's pointless continuing

DropIt · 05-01-2014, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

But if you end up with one townie and one mafia from each faction going into the night there are three scenarios. The mafia members need to spend their night actions killing the townie so both of them should have that as their goal, but if one kills the townie and the other kills mafia the second guy wins. They both know this and know that the other guy can figure it out so their only move is to kill the mafia and hope he kills the townie. If they both do that the townie wins.

or they conspire to both kill the Townie, leaving the game at a stalemate.

Hockeyguy15 · 05-01-2014, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

But if you end up with one townie and one mafia from each faction going into the night there are three scenarios. The mafia members need to spend their night actions killing the townie so both of them should have that as their goal, but if one kills the townie and the other kills mafia the second guy wins. They both know this and know that the other guy can figure it out so their only move is to kill the mafia and hope he kills the townie. If they both do that the townie wins.

I don't really want to pin our hopes of winning on that. The chances of your plan working out are slim a best.

GP_Matt · 05-01-2014, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DropIt

or they conspire to both kill the Townie, leaving the game at a stalemate.

They could, but most prisoners dilemma experiments have shown that they won't.

Anyway, I am not suggesting it as a great strategy, just throwing out ideas right now to see what sticks.

undercoverbrother · 05-01-2014, 10:37 AM

There really is a lot of spinning of wheels, and vote/unvote.

I think I am gonna sit down, go through the thread and decide who I think we should kill.

ineedanother · 05-01-2014, 10:40 AM

I see that my vote brought out more discussion, unfortunately it seems to mostly directed at me. My vote was just to see if activeStick would defend himself, but I do not see him posting much. I waned to get my vote in early, as I believe the Mafia factions would rather wait so that they can target the person who has the most votes and get them out.

I am townie but have no way of confirming this. My vote does seem contradicting, as I mentioned that mafia would want to get a quick hammer, to get rid of more townies. But seeing as there hasn't been any obvious voting blocks, it makes it hard to pick out who is townie and who is not.

GP_Matt · 05-01-2014, 10:41 AM

I really don't think we can suss out a mafia guy this round. In my opinion the best we can hope for is to get a lot of posts that can be compared to later looking for patterns.

strombad · 05-01-2014, 10:50 AM

Much like last game, there is absolutely no value in people "revealing" and saying "I'm a townie!"

It didn't help last time, it's not going to help this time. I don't know why people need to rely on the idea of it so much. The mafia lies, if you think the mafia isn't going to say "I'm a townie!" then you should probably just self-kill, because this game is going to be tough on your trust issues.

That said, on top of what ineedanother is saying, I think ActiveStick might be an interesting choice. Last game he stayed very quite until it was near the end, then he attempted to fully control the game. He was the serial killer. It makes complete sense to me that if he were mafia he would once again attempt to lay low until the opportunity to control the game presented itself. At the end of the last game he showed a very clear ability and desire to post frequently and with a lot of ideas. So far? Nothing. It's still early, but having seen him play the game while knowing he was "bad," I'm already seeing a similar pattern.

Lego Man · 05-01-2014, 10:56 AM

I'm going to randomly flip a Loonie. If I flip heads, someone else HAS to vote for Completely.

There you have it.

dsavillian · 05-01-2014, 10:57 AM

vote GP_Matt

Based purely on the poor suggestion that the cop reveal him/herself on day one.

ineedanother · 05-01-2014, 11:03 AM

Yeah I think revealing the cop would be bad. There are only 4 townies with special powers, but 2 are fairly useless this early in the game. The roleblocker is not going to effectively use his ability as none of the mafia seems to have any roles. Only way this helps is if he can roleblock the mafia's night kill. The vigilante is not very useful early as it is hard to predict who is mafia to kill, as they more likely to hit a townie this early if they use their power.

GP_Matt · 05-01-2014, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

Is it worthwhile to make group suggestions for the doctor and cop?
We could ask the cop to come out and have the doctor protect him every night, but that might be fraught with errors.
Is it better to have the cop conduct investigations silently until he has identified a few people and then have him come out under protection of the doctor?

Is it worthwhile to ask the doctor to protect someone in the thread?

I was never suggesting that the cop reveal himself. Merely that we discuss the idea. I think there is a big difference.

Keep in mind that the cop may be a complete beginner so thinking out loud about his role can help him work through strategies.

GP_Matt · 05-01-2014, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ineedanother

Yeah I think revealing the cop would be bad. There are only 4 townies with special powers, but 2 are fairly useless this early in the game. The roleblocker is not going to effectively use his ability as none of the mafia seems to have any roles. Only way this helps is if he can roleblock the mafia's night kill. The vigilante is not very useful early as it is hard to predict who is mafia to kill, as they more likely to hit a townie this early if they use their power.

I think the role blocker can block a mafia kill, but only if he can correctly guess which mafia member will execute the kill. The last game they had to pick a killer from among them to PM the kill. It is a crazy long shot.

Timbo · 05-01-2014, 11:14 AM

This is incriminating...

Does it look like anyone we know?

We have until sunday to poke and prod. And GP-Matt I appreciate your spitballing however your spitballs seem to have an alcohol content of .08%.

Kjesse · 05-01-2014, 11:29 AM

Good discussion going, and there's no need for everyone to jump to conclusions just yet. The analysis is helpful even though I don't agree with all of it.

Time is on our side right now. We have more time to see how people post, and see who posts. We get 1 kill, mafia get 2, so we're going to be down 2 in all likelihood after we drop the hammer, and if we guess wrong, 3. 2 of us are likely gone even if we guess right. And it is a guess despite our best efforts.

I'll provide more analysis later, but for now add this: CBL, while funny, isn't helping the cause. Perhaps give him time to adjust, he can be funny and helpful if he chooses to.