Craig's List 2014 Prospects

[ignite09]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Not sure why centers are more important early in a rebuild. Defencemen take longer to develop. You don't want to wait until the latter stages to draft them.

They aren't more important, but they are just as important. Also the stats of the past decade or so show that it is more likely for a top 5 defenseman not to reach his projected potential then it is a center. Either would be a huge pickup for this team, but Ekblad should be noticably better then Reinhart if we're going to pick him with both on the table.

[Caged Great]

Reinhart is almost guaranteed to become a top two line center.

Ekblad is more likely to become a version of Dennis Wideman than he is to become Doughty.

That's literally the only reason why I would take any of the forwards unless we are picking 4th or 5th and Ekblad is there.

Really, you are just as likely to get a D-man that's good in the late first, the second, or even third round. That is why I would take the forward be it Reinhart, Dal Colle, Bennett, or Draisaitl. You are more likely to get two really good players if you take the forward and then spam D-men with the remaining picks in the top 3 rounds, where if you take Ekblad alone, you have only a 50% chance of getting an average top 4 guy, and could possibly get someone that busts as likely as you are to get a really good one.

It's the safer route to go forward than it is D, and it's not like we couldn't use some star calibre skill on this team.

[herashak]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Reinhart is almost guaranteed to become a top two line center.

Ekblad is more likely to become a version of Dennis Wideman than he is to become Doughty.

That's literally the only reason why I would take any of the forwards unless we are picking 4th or 5th and Ekblad is there.

Really, you are just as likely to get a D-man that's good in the late first, the second, or even third round. That is why I would take the forward be it Reinhart, Dal Colle, Bennett, or Draisaitl. You are more likely to get two really good players if you take the forward and then spam D-men with the remaining picks in the top 3 rounds, where if you take Ekblad alone, you have only a 50% chance of getting an average top 4 guy, and could possibly get someone that busts as likely as you are to get a really good one.

It's the safer route to go forward than it is D, and it's not like we couldn't use some star calibre skill on this team.

Your crystal ball has swayed me to wanting reinhart

[Robbob]

The other thing about picking up a Reinhart is that bumps (eventually if he makes his projections) Monahan down to the second line giving a great one two punch.

As much as Ekblad intrigues me, at this point if you are draft first first you go Reinhart. Although if Burke can somehow trade the pick (as long as the team stays in the top 3) for a kings ransom, I would be okay with that.

[dammage79]

Ekblad. That is all.

[Table 5]

Drafting history over the last two decades has shown time and time again, that picking the forward (and specially Center) is the no-brainer way to go when you have the top pick. Short of freak years like 2003 where the crop is amazingly deep, true elite #1 Centers are almost non-existent outside of the Top 5. There have been plenty of elite d-men picked out of that range...often times outside of the 1st round altogether. Even in Doughty's year (where he was #2), there were some really solid d-men picked after him in Pietrangelo and Karlsson that one could build a d-core around. Doughty might be the best d-man picked this decade...but I doubt you'd find many GM's who would take him over Stamkos (picked #1 that year).

Yes, we need Dmen. But we still need Centers too. Most Cup contenders have two great centermen... and as much as I like him, I think Monahan is the type of guy who would be that great 2nd line guy on a Stanley Cup winner. While I don't think he's the second coming of Stamkos, Reinhart might be that #1. While we all hold out hope for McDavid next year, it would be foolish to try to wait for that to happen.

I think it's pretty easy. If you have the #1 pick, ignore the hype and the noise, and go for the Forward. You always go for the Forward.

[$ven27]

May be a stupid question, but why is it that picking the Dman in the top of the draft is such a risk compared to the forwards? Is it simply because their game is harder to translate to the NHL level?

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by $ven27

May be a stupid question, but why is it that picking the Dman in the top of the draft is such a risk compared to the forwards? Is it simply because their game is harder to translate to the NHL level?

In my opinion:

1) It takes longer for a Dman to reach their potential compared a Forward, so you have to project farther into the future. It's even farther out with goalies, who's results are even more erratic. Great forwards tend to transition to the NHL much faster, and start making an impact almost right away. I think picking a Dman at 18 would be like picking a forward at 15-16. Or a goalie at 12, ha.

2) I think it's a much more subtle position, so it's not as obvious to see who will translate well to the NHL. The difference between a great dman and an average one isn't as obviously apparent compared an elite forward vs an average one.

[Johnny Rotten]

I really like Eklab (see article below); everyone talks about his strength (man-child comments), but should a team be concerned that he doesn't have much room for more physical growth? Just a thought, but I hope he's not "maxed-out" now and doesn't get any better.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/world-j...220201290.html

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by $ven27

May be a stupid question, but why is it that picking the Dman in the top of the draft is such a risk compared to the forwards? Is it simply because their game is harder to translate to the NHL level?

It's a very good question.

IMO, a significant factor is that defense - particularly at the NHL level - is more of a learned skill, whereas forwards can rely more on their talent with less to 'learn'.

If so, projecting forwards is more about their skill-set, which is pretty evident, even at 18. Sure, things will change and some guys will develop more, but talented players typically remain talented.

However, despite the fact that they have the tools (like an Ekblad for example) you still have a significant learning curve before they become a top pairing D-man. That is way harder to predict. It also takes more time, and the longer the time frame, the more difficult the projection.

Of course, there are some defensemen that rely mostly on their skills, such as Letang or Karlsson, but IMO they are more the exception than the norm

[Calgary4LIfe]

One thing that can't be overlooked is how important strong two-way centers are. Crosby, Bergeron, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Krejci, Toews, etc. Guys that can get on both sides of the stats sheets - the offensive and defensive sides. Monahan is of that ilk, can you imagine adding another one like Reinhart (who may be even more offensive?).

I really like Ekblad, and he has shown himself very, very well in the world juniors. I don't think you can go wrong selecting him first at all. However, having a Monahan/Reinhart tandem that eats up a bit more than half the game - two players that will do a lot to drive possession - that means a lot moving forward.

Like others have pointed out, it is very rare to get a 1st line player outside the first round, and a 1st line center outside the top 5 picks. Though I won't say it is 'common' to get top pairing defencemen in rounds 2 and lower, I would estimate that it is just as likely than getting them in the 1st round.

Best case scenario for me - Flames take Reinhart 1st. They have a late first and take a defencemen, use a 2nd and a 3rd to take another 2 defencemen (unless of course, there are glaringly better options). Scatter-gun approach seems to work pretty well for some teams - i.e. Nashville - in drafting D. Their games are much more difficult to project, and the first 3 rounds are littered with disappointments and outstanding surprises.

Having another high-IQ, mature, 2-way center who reminds me a LOT of Monahan already on this team would make for a dynamic top 6 that play a full 200ft game. I simply don't think it is a mistake in the slightest to go in that direction, and I think it would be a huge waste of an opportunity if the Flames don't take advantage of it if they end up having that choice. I like Ekblad, and there will be no tears from me if the Flames draft him, but my preference is definitely Reinhart.

[Husky]

In a perfect world, Ekblad this year and McDavid next year.

[Poe969]

I just think there hadn't been a defenseman like Ekblad since Pronger. I see Ekblad as one of the best defensive prospects we will see in a long time. I wouldn't mind Reinhart at all but I think we need a defenseman like Ekblad to build around and they don't alone too often where it seems every year there are a couple of "elite" centers to pick from.

I think Ekblad has it all when it comes to defensemen.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Reinhart is almost guaranteed to become a top two line center.

Ekblad is more likely to become a version of Dennis Wideman than he is to become Doughty.

Lets agree to disagree, to me I don't get the Sam love at all, watching him I don't see an NHL shot and he's extremely soft. I could look past this if I saw really nice stats but at this point he's not far ahead of Max...big pass please.

As for Ekblad, really bad comparison, Ekblad at 17 years old is already a monster at 6'3 210 lbs. Wideman himself would laugh.

[CliffFletcher]

Yeah, Reinhart looks like he'll be a quality NHLer, but he doesn't scream number one centre. He doesn't have elite speed or power. Doesn't have a great shot. He's not big. Doesn't initiate contact. Doesn't beat guys one-on-one. He's pretty much all hockey smarts and hands. His upside is David Krejci. And there's a good chance he doesn't reach even that level.

If you think d-men are always a risk with a top-three pick, Dal Colle looks like the better bet to me at this point if you take a forward. The guy has all the tools to be an elite scorer in the NHL.

[Roof-Daddy]

The pessimist in me has the following concerns about the "top 2" in this years draft:

1) Sam Reinhart reminds me a little too much of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, skilled but a little too soft/passive.

2) Aaron Ekblad might not have much room left to grow, and if he's close to "maxed out" now, he won't excel against NHLers the way you would hope a top pick would.

Granted, I'm no scout and have had very limited viewings of both players.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by herashak

Your crystal ball has swayed me to wanting reinhart

It doesn't really have anything to do with guesstimating. It's more like playing poker. Forwards in the top 5 over the past twenty years, almost all of them became at least top 6 forwards

93 - Daigle, Gratton, Niedermayer all were .5 PPG players and Kariya was a PPG.

94 - Bonk and O'Neill were greater than .5 PPG and Boisingnore busted

95 - Kilger disappointed but was still a useful 3rd/4th liner, Langkow was a .7 PPG

96 - Dumont was a quality 2nd liner, Volchkov busted

97 - Thornton Marleau and Jokinen were all very good players

98 - Lecavalier is a good first line C, Legwand a quality 2nd/3rd liner

99 - Stefan and Brendl Busted, Connolly was decent before Injuries did him in and the Sedins are borderline HHOF players.

00 - Heatley and Gaborik were both good first line stars for 10 years. Torres has been an adequate 3rd/4th liner

01 - Svitov and Chistov Busted, Weiss was a good 2nd/3rd line C, and Kovalchuk/Spezza have been stars.

02 - Nash is a star player

03 - Zherdev was okay as a 2nd liner before he vanished, and Vanek, Staal and Horton have all been very good players.

04 - Ovy and Malkin are two of the best in the game, Wheeler and Ladd have both been good quality 2nd liners.

05 - Crosby is okay I guess. Ryan is a good top 6 guy, and Pouliot busted.

06 - J. Staal has been a good 2nd liner. Toews, Backstrom and Kessel have been alright.

07 - Kane is one of the top players in the NHL, JVR and Turris are coming into their own as good top 6ers as well.

08 - Stamkos is okay.

09 - Tavares and Duchense are both top line forwards, Kane and Schenn are decent 2nd liners.

10 - Hall Seguin and Johansen are all coming into their own this year, Niedereitter is performing at a .5 PPG level this year.

11 - RNH and Lando are both looking like top line guys, with Huberdeau and Strome having the potential to get there.

12 - Yakupov and Galchenyuk are both 1st liners in the making.

13 - All the forwards save Horvat taken in the top ten all look like potential 1st liners.

Out of all of that, 5 players busted outright, and about 10 only became role players. The rest have become key players on their teams. In that same time period, only 5 or so D-men picked in that zone became legit stars.

From simply a mathematical take on it, you are vastly more likely to benefit from a pick in the top 5 being used on a forward than you are a D-man.

Top 6 forward - 55/67 = 82%
Useful lower line guy - 7/67 = 10%
Bust - 5/67 = 8%

D-men taken in that same period

2011-2013

Seth Jones, Morgan Reilly, Ryan Murray, Griffen Reinhart, Adam Larsson

Jones, Reilly, Murray are off to a good start, Reinhart hasn't played yet and Larsson look like a decent mid pairing guy

2005-2010
Erik Gudbranson, Victor Hedman, Drew Doughty, Zach Bogosian, Alex Pietrangelo, Luke Schenn, Thomas Hickey, Karl Alzner, Erik Johnson, Jack Johnson

Gudbranson, Schenn, and Hickey all look like 3rd pairing guys at this point. Bogosian, Alzner, Johnson and Johnson are more like #2/#3 guys with Hedman, Pietrangelo and Doughty being the best, Hedman is a #1, but not a star player.

2000-2004
Cam Barker, Jay Bouwmeester, Joni Pitkanen, Ryan Whitney, Rusty Klesla

Barker Busted, Whitney and Klesla are more #4/5 guys, J-Bo and Pitkanen are more #2/3 guys (Bo could be argued a #1 but he's not a good one if labelled that)

1995-1999

Brad Stuart, Brian Allen, Vitali Vishenvsky, Eric Brewer, Chris Phillips, Andrei Zyuzin, Richard Jackman, Bryan Berard, Wade Redden, Aki Berg

Zyuzin, Berg and Vishnevsky were all bottom pairing guys, Jackman busted, Allen was a #4, Berard Brewer Phillips and Stuart were all #2/3 d-men with Redden being the only #1 D-man amongst them and he wasn't a great one.

1993-1994

Ed Jovanovski, Oleg Tverdovsky, and Chris Pronger

Pronger was okay I suppose. Jovo was a #2 for a while, and Tverdovsky was more 2/3/4 type guy.

Top end guys - 9/33 = 27%
Useful depth guys - 14/33 = 43%
Busts or Marginal depth - 10/33 = 30%

The D-men have only a 70% chance at getting someone that's a #4 D-man or better with less than a 30% chance at getting a #1 D-man, which is less of a chance at getting a 5/6 guy or an outright bust.

There is an 82% chance at get a 2nd liner or better, with a large amount of star players in there. 55% of the all forwards picked, I would consider to be top line star calibre talent. That's over 2X more likely that your pick will turn into a star. Add in that if your pick doesn't turn into a Star, you still have a very good chance that they'll be able to contribute in some fashion, even if it's only as a 2nd/3rd/4th liner.

You're twice as likely to get a Star, and nearly 4 times less likely to get an outright bust. That's the reason why I prefer the forwards to the defensemen. I like Ekblad, but I am leery because he is also already filled out. He's looking better against the weaker sizes of the Junior players. He'd fit right in with NHL players size wise, but because he can't out muscle them to the same extent anymore, that tool is taken out of the box somewhat.

Add in that you can find D-men that can emerge into a top pairing guy anywhere in the top 3 rounds, and it makes more sense from an odds perspective to go the route of taking a forward and spamming D-men afterwards.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by T@T

Lets agree to disagree, to me I don't get the Sam love at all, watching him I don't see an NHL shot and he's extremely soft. I could look past this if I saw really nice stats but at this point he's not far ahead of Max...big pass please.

As for Ekblad, really bad comparison, Ekblad at 17 years old is already a monster at 6'3 210 lbs. Wideman himself would laugh.

I'm not high on Reinhart either personally. I much prefer Dal Colle all things being equal. I used Reinhart in my post due to him being the consensus #1 at the moment (although I don't think that will be the case nearer the draft)

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

I'm not high on Reinhart either personally. I much prefer Dal Colle all things being equal. I used Reinhart in my post due to him being the consensus #1 at the moment (although I don't think that will be the case nearer the draft)

Personally I would rather Bennett over any other forward with Dal Colle making a push.

[moon]

Originally Posted by T@T

Lets agree to disagree, to me I don't get the Sam love at all, watching him I don't see an NHL shot and he's extremely soft. I could look past this if I saw really nice stats but at this point he's not far ahead of Max...big pass please.

He is much further statswise than Max.

He was over a PPG at 17 Max didn't get there until 18 and at a lower rate. SAMs 18 year old season much better than anything Max did.