[News] With the 34th overall pick the Flames select G Mason McDonald

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GGG

If we have 256 coin flippers flip a coin 8 times and try to get heads and get a binomial distribution you woukd have 1 flipper with 8 heads and 1 with 8 tails.

Is that one coin flipper really good or just lucky. The draft could be the same way. All scouts are roughly equally good so their performance relative to eachother may be random.

One area that is random is picking stocks. No one year over year picking stocks can consistantly outperform random chance.

One needs to be careful about the conclusions they come to. It is completely conceivable that someone could in fact consistently beat the stock market.

What the statistics are telling us is that we can't distinguish between luck and skill. That doesn't preclude skill from existing, just that we don't have enough information to tell.

The same is true with the draft. Detroit may in fact draft better than Edmonton. The problem is that we will never acquire enough information to be reasonably confident that it is skill and not luck.

(and by the time enough info was gathered, the management would have all changed and the info would be irrelevant anyway)

sorry to derail the thread

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by getbak

Now, go to the second round. There were 38 players chosen in the second round. 29 have played at least 1 NHL game; 16 have played at least 100 (11 of whom were still in the NHL last season); and 7 have played over 400 (plus two goalies over 200).

Question, out of curiosity, how did so many players get drafted round 2?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by the2bears

Question, out of curiosity, how did so many players get drafted round 2?

Short answer: No salary cap.

Slightly longer answer: Under that CBA, the league was still handing out second-round picks as compensation for losing UFAs. Therefore, when the rich teams raped and pillaged the poor teams, a lot of extra picks got created.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Flames nab best goalie in the draft? I'm good with that. No issue whatsoever with this selection.

[Vulcan]

I wanted McDonald or one of the Finns. Taking him at 34 was maybe earlier than expected but if that's the guy they want, take him while you can.

[Rick M.]

McDonald was the goalie I wanted. I had hoped we'd take him in the 3rd, but given the run on goalies in the second (a reflection of the quality of the draft?), I'm glad we took him in the 2nd. Maybe I overvalue him, having seen him live a number of times, but I really like his calm manner. He plays no differently whether he is ahead or behind. He has great skills and I rate mental toughness in goalies high on my list of attributes.

[King Theo]

I will start this by saying I am no scout. But I got to watch him play last year 3 times. He got traded to the Islanders mid season and the team changed how they played. They trusted the goalie.
The only other goalie I seen play like this was Cory Crawford when he was in Moncton.

[loob job]

And i will add what I posted earlier in this thread. My friend coaches in the Q against this kid and says he is the real deal. He has seen him play numerous times.

[albertGQ]

Originally Posted by transplant99

What are you talking about?

Off the top of my head there is Patrick Roy, Martin Brodeur, Terry Sawchuk, Glen Hall, Grant Fuhr, etc etc....all current or future HOF goalies who played in the NHL at ages 21 or younger.

Or am I misunderstanding what ever point it is you are making?

Yeah, that was an odd post. You can add Tom Barasso to the list too

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by getbak

Are you saying that you think the rule should be changed so that goalies aren't draft eligible until they are 20, or that you believe teams should never draft a goalie.


.

I thinks that the draft should be changed so that anyone under 19 (or maybe 20) drafted has to be signed to a 3 year 3m deal and be included in the NHL cap as soon as they are drafted no matter where they played. Any 19 year old would have a minimum 1M 3 year deal to be counted against the NHL cap as soon as drafted. (adjust the first year contracts to reflect the overall cap)

That way Mackinnon and Monahan (s) would still be drafted as 18 year olds but basically anyone after the top 5 or 6 18 year olds would not get drafted. Adding another year or two of of development would make the draft far more certain and be a better distribution of talent.... Almost all of the first round picks would be NHL ready right after they were drafted.


Most years there would not be any 18 year old goalies drafted at all. Why draft someone into a professional organization when there is less than a 1% chance that they will be even ready for the AHL?? and have no chance to play in the NHL

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

So, 20 games is an acceptable metric by which to determine the line between a "bust" and a "success"? I don't think your recital of numbers does anything at all to counter FDR's assertion.

Drafting an 18 year old who gets a look at the NHL as a 20 year old is a significant accomplishment. The Flames picks in 2011 were Wootherspoon and Grandlund.... I am pretty sure that they have more value than almost any 20 year old goalie prospect.

Right now would consider Grandlund and Wootherspoon successful draft picks even if they do not get in 100 NHL games.

[ricardodw]

Wasting basically what is a really late 1st round pick (#34) on an 18 year old goalie is bad asset management.




A goalie prospect that exceeds exceptions is still only worth a 2nd round pick at most when they are 20-22.

What would the acceptable return for Ortio and /or Gillies? I don't think that they would bring back a #34 draft pick.

St. L. picks up NHL ready Reto Berra for a late 2nd round pick (#54) and everyone here at CP says the Flames won that trade easily. Berra is 90% certain to play in more NHL games than Mason MacDonald.

What are the Leafs going to get for James Riemer (26 years old 140 NHL games). would have #34 gotten him?

The leafs got 23 year old Bernier....possibly the best 23 old goalie on the planet for a 2nd round pick in 2015, a journeyman goalie scrivener (worth the Oilers 3rd round pick) and a Frattin who was a #6/7 D-man on LA.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Wasting basically what is a really late 1st round pick (#34) on an 18 year old goalie is bad asset management.




A goalie prospect that exceeds exceptions is still only worth a 2nd round pick at most when they are 20-22.

What would the acceptable return for Ortio and /or Gillies? I don't think that they would bring back a #34 draft pick.

St. L. picks up NHL ready Reto Berra for a late 2nd round pick (#54) and everyone here at CP says the Flames won that trade easily. Berra is 90% certain to play in more NHL games than Mason MacDonald.

What are the Leafs going to get for James Riemer (26 years old 140 NHL games). would have #34 gotten him?

The leafs got 23 year old Bernier....possibly the best 23 old goalie on the planet for a 2nd round pick in 2015, a journeyman goalie scrivener (worth the Oilers 3rd round pick) and a Frattin who was a #6/7 D-man on LA.

Berra will have to learn how to use his glove hand if he wants to have an NHL career.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Flames nab best goalie in the draft? I'm good with that. No issue whatsoever with this selection.

And it was in the 2nd round. I have really warmed up to this pick.

Over the past few seasons, we have seen a lot quality goalies get traded for 2nd rounders, so it seems to be the going rate.

I tend to believe that finding quality goalies late in the draft is a good strategy, but if you can get one you think is the best in the draft at #34, then I think it's a good pick for sure.

[wingmaker]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Wasting basically what is a really late 1st round pick (#34) on an 18 year old goalie is bad asset management.




A goalie prospect that exceeds exceptions is still only worth a 2nd round pick at most when they are 20-22.

What would the acceptable return for Ortio and /or Gillies? I don't think that they would bring back a #34 draft pick.

St. L. picks up NHL ready Reto Berra for a late 2nd round pick (#54) and everyone here at CP says the Flames won that trade easily. Berra is 90% certain to play in more NHL games than Mason MacDonald.

What are the Leafs going to get for James Riemer (26 years old 140 NHL games). would have #34 gotten him?

The leafs got 23 year old Bernier....possibly the best 23 old goalie on the planet for a 2nd round pick in 2015, a journeyman goalie scrivener (worth the Oilers 3rd round pick) and a Frattin who was a #6/7 D-man on LA.

The few goalie trades you have thrown out do not paint the whole picture on the value of goaltenders.

1) Schneider and Varlamov are both examples of goalies who were recently traded for first round picks. This means that your picture of goalies being traded for peanuts is not the full picture.

2) Varlamov, Ward, Fleury, Price etc are all goaltenders who were selected with draft picks higher than the #34 pick. This means that several of the number one goal tenders in the league were acquired with a higher pick than the one the Flames used. If Macdonald ends up being a number one, you could even argue that he will have been a steal at 34.

3) For whatever reason, goaltenders do not bring back high value on the trade market. I have no idea why, but it does tend to be true. That does not mean that this is equal to their value. Kipper was had for a second. I am sure any Flames fan would have traded a higher pick than a second for what he turned into...one of the best Flames of all time.

4) While the discrepancy in value between goaltenders and their trade value seems to suggest it would be easy to acquire a good goaltender, history has shown otherwise. Many teams have spent years trying to find the right goaltender without success. Whereas teams that have drafted and developed their own goaltenders eliminate this problem and can deal their excess goaltenders as needs be (LA, Anaheim, Mtl, etc).

You do have an argument about drafting goalies high, as there are lots of examples of it not working out. However, to claim that this was bad asset management is only an opinion which you have heavily weighted with selective examples.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

The only two on that list that I think have the potential to be starters are McDonald and Halverson. Not a fan of the rest at all. Jarry and Comrie would be the next two on my list btw.

Which is it?

This post you say McDonald's 1 of only 2 goaltenders with starter potential taken in the last 2 drafts. That sounds extremely promising to me.

13 hours prior you wrote this:

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Well, this is a disappointment. Both Hunter Smith and Mason McDonald are not that good. Why are we not taking defensemen.

I can understand you may have said that because you'd rather they drafted a dman you liked... but a month ago you said this:

Originally Posted by Caged Great

The two NA goalies that I am hoping we are targetting are Mason McDonald and Brandon Halverson. A pair of 6-4 goalies that are reasonably fast on their feet. McDonald is more rigid in his adherence to positioning, where Halverson is solid in most areas, just inexperienced due to being the backup on his team. MM is more of a late 2nd/early 3rd, where Halverson is probably a 4th/5th rounder (maybe with our last 3rd?)

You were hoping we were targetting McDonald, and you figured he'd be a late 2nd/early 3rd. Obviously he wouldn't have made it to our late 2nd after the run on goaltenders, so we had to grab him with our early 2nd. You should have been happy with the pick??

[Yrebmi]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

I thinks that the draft should be changed so that anyone under 19 (or maybe 20) drafted has to be signed to a 3 year 3m deal and be included in the NHL cap as soon as they are drafted no matter where they played. Any 19 year old would have a minimum 1M 3 year deal to be counted against the NHL cap as soon as drafted. (adjust the first year contracts to reflect the overall cap)

That way Mackinnon and Monahan (s) would still be drafted as 18 year olds but basically anyone after the top 5 or 6 18 year olds would not get drafted. Adding another year or two of of development would make the draft far more certain and be a better distribution of talent.... Almost all of the first round picks would be NHL ready right after they were drafted.


Most years there would not be any 18 year old goalies drafted at all. Why draft someone into a professional organization when there is less than a 1% chance that they will be even ready for the AHL?? and have no chance to play in the NHL

Would making the draft more predictable be a good thing? I rather like the element of risk.
What about teams that want to have an earlier hand in development?

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Yrebmi

Would making the draft more predictable be a good thing? I rather like the element of risk.
What about teams that want to have an earlier hand in development?

The most successful league in the world has a very predictable draft where the players are 95% developed with no input from the team drafting them.

The NFL fully expects the top 2 rounds to make the team and be important players.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Blogger Darren Haynes looks closer at the McDonald pick.

http://flamesfrom80feet.blogspot.ca/

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Blogger Darren Haynes looks closer at the McDonald pick.

http://flamesfrom80feet.blogspot.ca/

Excellent read