Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

Anybody know what happens if i sell a house and the fridge craps out before possession date? I would think i would be on the hook for a new fridge of equal or greater value?

I wonder if you talked to their realtor you may be able to work something out where they buy their own and you give them some cash. If it was me I would rather pick my own fridge than have someone else pick for me.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Kavvy

If anyone is bored and feels like wasting sometime to answer my query below, thank you!

The reason why Calgary house prices peaked before oil prices peaked is because of the rise of interest rates from 2006-2008.

I can't give a definitive answer as to why Calgary peaked before the rest of Canada. My guess is that Calgary rose more and faster than Canada so it hit the peak first.

[old-fart]

I think you are correct in that the house has to be in the same condition as it was when it was viewed and the deal struck. If something breaks the day before possession, it would be the responsibility of the seller to return the house to the same condition. In the case of the fridge, I don't think that means you need to put a new fridge in necessarily but you could put a working used fridge in of the same type/quality. If it was a stainless steel side-by-side with ice/water in the door, you couldn't find some old green fridge in someone's garage and slap that in there.

If, as someone said, it crapped out the day after possession, too bad for the new owners I guess. Sucky, but it is what it is.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

Anybody know what happens if i sell a house and the fridge craps out before possession date? I would think i would be on the hook for a new fridge of equal or greater value?

The standard warranty in the AREA contract is that "Attached Goods and included Unattached Goods are in normal working order".

Normally, you would have to repair or replace the appliance with a similar one. Or, the buyer might accept a price reduction instead.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Red

No reason? Something is not adding up. They have to give you a reason and it has to be within the sale conditions.

Reasons were given actually but to me they were more of the made up variety. How hard is it to come up with few grand of repair estimate on any house? My agent's advice was to move on from these deadbeat buyers and to wait for new buyers instead. One time my house was C/S three times before it was sold.

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by kevman

Things, at least for the time being, appear to be fairly stable. Now, summer of 2016 or 2017 could be another story if oil continues to stumble.

You honestly think it will take over a year before the current market reacts to oil prices and layoffs? That is very optimistic. Previous history has showed the housing market lags a few months behind the labour market. I'd say summer 2015 is much more likely. And we did just break the dreaded $50/barrel threshold.

The next big thing to keep an eye on is interprovincial migration.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

You honestly think it will take over a year before the current market reacts to oil prices and layoffs?

Yes.

Previous history has showed the housing market lags a few months behind the labour market.

Has it? Please provide back up.

In my limited experience the housing price declines in 2008 began before the market and oil crash later that year. In fact housing prices appeared to go up slightly in 2009 following the crash before a small decline in 2010 and remained stable in 2011.

Believe it or not most people don't foreclose on their homes and declare bankruptcy mere months after being laid off.

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by kevman

Yes.



Has it? Please provide back up.

In my limited experience the housing price declines in 2008 began before the market and oil crash later that year. In fact housing prices appeared to go up slightly in 2009 following the crash before a small decline in 2010 and remained stable in 2011.

Believe it or not most people don't foreclose on their homes and declare bankruptcy mere months after being laid off.

Oh man. Look at your own data to see the obvious correlation. You're not that lazy are you!?

http://www.bobtruman.com/SFH_DailyMo...e_1869385.html

http://www.forecast-chart.com/chart-crude-oil.html

Peak average price May 2008- 479,xxx
Sept 2008 financial melt down 444,xxx
Dec 2008 oil near $40/barrell, avg price 417,xxx

That's a 13% drop from May 2008 to Dec 2008. The housing avg price then stagnated in the 410,xxx to 435,xxx for the next half year.

Your timeline is obviously way off, peak oil was in June 2008 and it started freefalling in Sept 2008. Just as the Calgary housing market did.

So there you have it, the housing market did not take over a year to correct following the drop in oil. Glad we busted that myth.

[Flamenspiel]

^^Ok, ok already. You are repeating the same things over and over again resembling the Captain Obvious character on the Hotel commercials. Had you predicted this a year ago i would be impressed.

Whats the point right now? Are you trying to somehow accelerate the process so that you can swoop in and purchase some bargains?

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Flamenspiel

^^Ok, ok already. You are repeating the same things over and over again resembling the Captain Obvious character on the Hotel commercials. Had you predicted this a year ago i would be impressed.

Whats the point right now? Are you trying to somehow accelerate the process so that you can swoop in and purchase some bargains?

Umm. Wtf are you on about? I was asked to provide evidence to back up a claim and did.

History: What's the point.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

Oh man. Look at your own data to see the obvious correlation. You're not that lazy are you!?

Not lazy at all. We apparently interpret the data differently.

So there you have it, the housing market did not take over a year to correct following the drop in oil. Glad we busted that myth.

Glad we're already ignoring the seasonal trends.

Averages
September 08 444k
September 09 459k

That's a 3.3% increase year over year following the market crash.

September 07 471k
September 08 444k

That's a That's a 5.7% decrease year over year prior to the market crash.

Median
Year May Dec
2006 383 368 -3.9
2007 421 407 -3.3
2008 395 380 -3.7
2009 400 401 0
2010 390 389 0
2011 400 393 -1.8
2012 412 420 +2
2013 450 463 +2.9
2014 489 478 -2.2

That's a seasonal average decline of 1.1% from September to December over the last 9 years.

If a $100 crash in oil prices resulting in an immediate 2.7% deviation from the norm is the doom and gloom you're predicting everything is probably going to be ok in the near term...

I'm not saying house prices in Calgary are not impacted by oil prices. They absolutely are. I just believe there happens to be a lag.

1. Oil crashes
2. People lose jobs
3. Immigration slows down
4. Housing demand weakens
5. Housing devalues

This doesn't happen overnight.

[kevman]

WTI was ~$65 in June 2007
One year later it was ~$135 in June 2008
An increase of 107% in a year
http://www.fedprimerate.com/crude-oil-price-history.htm

In that same time Calgary house prices fell 7% from a median of 439k to 408k.

Where is the immediate correlation there?

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by kevman

WTI was ~$65 in June 2007
One year later it was ~$135 in June 2008
An increase of 107% in a year
http://www.fedprimerate.com/crude-oil-price-history.htm

In that same time Calgary house prices fell 7% from a median of 439k to 408k.

Where is the immediate correlation there?

Honest question. Do you understand what a crash is? I'm not trying to be a dick.

[4X4]

EFF, seriously, just chill the F out already. I know you're on suicide watch, but can you please take it somewhere else? We get it. The world is about to end. Thanks for the fricken update. You've warned us. REPEATEDLY.

WE GET IT. Now run along, please.

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by 4X4

EFF, seriously, just chill the F out already. I know you're on suicide watch, but can you please take it somewhere else? We get it. The world is about to end. Thanks for the fricken update. You've warned us. REPEATEDLY.

WE GET IT. Now run along, please.

You've got serious anger issues bud. I can see your hypertension acting up as you typed that. Spend more time in the meditation thread and less time in the doom and gloom thread.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

...Spend more time in the meditation thread and less time in the doom and gloom thread.

Well, this is NOT a doom and gloom thread. This is a discussion about real estate predictions. You've made your feelings quite clear a month ago:

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

I'm starting to sound like a broken record. There will be mass layoffs and 2015 will be a very bad year...

You've had a response at that time:

Originally Posted by Slava

...I just have no idea why you are posting this over and over ...

Moreover, there is consensus about the warning signs we all see happening in the O&G industry. But you keep repeating your stuff again and again. Why? It is extremely annoying, don't you see it?

[kevman]

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

Honest question. Do you understand what a crash is? I'm not trying to be a dick.

Evidently I don't. Why don't you try to explain it to me...

No offense but why don't I ask you an insulting question in an attempt to belittle your opinion and prove my point?

Let's recap:

You said the market is cooling significantly and that it's down 5% from June.
I simply said this is typical of any year due to seasonal fluctuations. I backed this up with numbers.

You said the market is oversupplied and sales are down.
I showed you numbers showing this wasn't the case and that sales and supply are consistent for this time of year within the last few years.

I said that I believe that it could take a year or two for house prices to decline as a result of today's oil prices. You replied stating previous history shows otherwise so I requested some proof of history and you failed to provide any. I provided more information showing how Calgary's house prices did not strongly correlate with the 2008 crash.

Did I miss anything? I didn't say the market will not adjust rather that I believe the adjustment will be delayed.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. The low oil prices will likely result in layoffs, reduced immigration and potentially a rate hike. All three of these will put downward pressure on Calgary's housing market but unfortunately for you these things take time.

Now "I'm not trying to be a dick" but why don't you run along and let the adults talk?

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by kevman

Evidently I don't. Why don't you try to explain it to me...

No offense but why don't I ask you an insulting question in an attempt to belittle your opinion and prove my point?

Let's recap:

You said the market is cooling significantly and that it's down 5% from June.
I simply said this is typical of any year due to seasonal fluctuations. I backed this up with numbers.

You said the market is oversupplied and sales are down.
I showed you numbers showing this wasn't the case and that sales and supply are consistent for this time of year within the last few years.

I said that I believe that it could take a year or two for house prices to decline as a result of today's oil prices. You replied stating previous history shows otherwise so I requested some proof of history and you failed to provide any. I provided more information showing how Calgary's house prices did not strongly correlate with the 2008 crash.

Did I miss anything? I didn't say the market will not adjust rather that I believe the adjustment will be delayed.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. The low oil prices will likely result in layoffs, reduced immigration and potentially a rate hike. All three of these will put downward pressure on Calgary's housing market but unfortunately for you these things take time.

Now "I'm not trying to be a dick" but why don't you run along and let the adults talk?

Instead of a post full of condescending nonsense and personal attacks, you could have left it at agree to disagree. Resorting to childish insults does nothing to strengthen your position

[old-fart]

Ya, but what about my conditions being removed... ;-)

[4X4]

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

Instead of a post full of condescending nonsense and personal attacks, you could have left it at agree to disagree. Resorting to childish insults does nothing to strengthen your position

In your "short time" here, you must have the record for accusing other people of 'personal attacks'. I bet if I searched it, there'd be at least 25 posts of yours.

If you're going to come on the big bad internet and clown around the way you do, be prepared for some people to tell you you're a clown.