CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by starseed

He was vocal about not working with mrk before, but has voted multiple times to save him. See the mrk hunt post I made yesterday.

Day 3 - it was 7-5 mrk over ECF until PE interrupts the four-player mrk vote train for ECF, followed by devo's switch to ECF, then peanut finally clinches it at 8-6 ECF.

Day 4 - 2 votes for peanut, then squiggs switched to mrk and timbo follows, then after you vote for PE it is:

PE - 3 (you, me, biz)
me - 2 (Oling, peanut)
mrk - 2 (squiggs, timbo)
devo - 1 (pux)
HG - diss voted, then unvoted

So then mrk voted for me to bring me into a tie with PE, followed shortly by PE voting for me to take me into the lead. HG had also voted for mrk between them for a 3-way tie before PE voted me into the lead.

Eventually mrk, PE, and peanut held their vote for me until the tie happened. IMO at this time they were not being too vocal in campaigning for me just in case biz or oling had voted for mrk. (could oling have been turned by then and not known which of us were scum, and played it safe by letting the tie happen?)

I can see biz working with mrk elsewhere in the game, including day 3, and maybe the late vote was intentional on day 4, but I think that is not as likely as PE working to prevent mrk's lynch. HG, on the other hand, has not been working with mrk as far as I can tell (that does not necessarily indicate that he is certainly town, but I doubt scum would have voted for mrkaj rather than at least a third party on day 4)

This is the main reason I have Hockeyguy in the town camp. His relentless attacks on mrkajz don't seem likely from a scum to me. It's been too pushy to be staged, imo, although if GGG feels HG is the best choice I'll defer to his judgement. I'm an engineer, and I've not always been adept at judging whether people are angry or joking, so if GGG is confident...

The lack of heat on HG15 and the townie cred he should have got for this are what makes me suspect him as a potential turned, as he might have been a good spore target.

That's pretty much how I feel about squiggs. I thought he was suspicious, but his drag-it-out brawl with oling doesn't feel staged to me. So since oling was turned squiggs is town. However, I think if we assume the scum controlled the spore last night squiggs would have been where they sent it. Strong player who just got a huge boost of townie cred.

So I have HG and squiggs as probable town who may be turned. We can't have more than 2 turned, obviously.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

I took hockey guys vote lists and declared Diss town. Then selected Squiggs as a suspect and worked through the possibilities. His votes were everywhere. He didn't pair well with any scum team.

With oling and Squiggs both town and oling tunnelling hard and bizarrely wanting to give voting control over to me. (Something town oling wouldn't do as he would be confident enough in his choice of lynch to vote in spite of my opinion). This meant oling turned and Squiggs town

With that decided oling wouldn't be pushing me unless he figured he was confident I wouldn't vote scum.

I had a party, Squiggs, peanut on the scum lists so I figured max 1 can be right and looked elsewhere. What started to be noticeable from the votes was peanut protecting mr,Kajz. Those to work as scum perfectly together and should be today's vote.

This logic seems sound to me. Oling wouldn't have deferred to you unless he was confident. He tried pretty hard to sway your choice towards squiggs, but he would have also had a backup plan. It seems likely that only one of peanut and party elephant are host/turned. I think we should go with party. His suggesting that voting for mrkajz yesterday somehow absolves him of the previous link is ridiculous, as it was 100% obvious that your choice was getting lynched. That feels to me like grasping at straws from a scum who claims to have figured out the game. He can't defend the voting record on the link.

I'd also be willing to go Peanut here, as that's a reasonable backup choice. She hasn't done anything I find especially scummy, but that could just be an "under the radar" thing. If we do go peanut and she flips, I want to lynch diss tomorrow.

Her voting diss after diss votes her feels like more than a revenge vote. Once GGG declared peanut today's suspect, if she's scum they would know she was numbered considering what happened yesterday with mrkajz. Diss is in a good place right now, so he could win the game alone. Him getting in front of a peanut vote train helps his town cred, and peanut revenge voting him would also help his town cred if she flips town.

So I think this information keeps party in my top choice, but adds a diss qualifier to my peanut wildcard.

[bizaro86]

These are mrkajz's picks from his death post.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

My top picks for scum are clear. HG is my top pick, he clearly has an agenda and was likely saved by scum movement on the Day 3 vote. Watch for how he stars subtly steering tomorrow.

Starseed is not contributing like he did last game and did a great job showing up and just blending in. His predecessor Lego liked to do full town lists, and not really focus on anyone.

Timbo likes to pick apart posts, but he tends to do it by twisting words. It seems he knows he can't quite put the logic together, so a small "misinterpretation" of words helps the cause.

Diss loves to stand up and shout "look at how I am acting like the model townie"! He makes sure you know he is doing town things, almost to convince himself that he is acting how a townie would.

I am convinced 2 of those 4 are scum. Hunt them down.

I agree with GGG who said that a death post list would probably have mostly town with 1 scum/turned in it. We know Timbo isn't, so that would leave one of HG/Starseed/Diss. I wonder if mrkajz was bold enough to tell us the truth that 2 of those 4 were scum. That would be a suprise to most people, and since said it in the last line we'd assume it was a lie and maybe lay off the remaining scum in the list if we got one. That would kind of fit with mrkajz thinking he's the smartest person in the game, which was kind of the vibe I got from him. That might also be part of the plan for him to protect diss, who voted for him previously at a critical juncture, which has been protecting diss. It seems to me that mrkajz and diss are almost conveniently separated based on those couple of days.

Mrkajz also noted that HG15 had been his top suspect for awhile, and that fits with his actual actions, where he called HG out for "not being equally suspicious of mistakes." It doesn't seem likely to me that the scum on the list is the person who he was actually attacking. After all, probably his top attack suspect wasn't scum, I doubt he'd actively be trying to get his scum teammates lynched, in case his pick caught on. He had to put HG on there or the list wouldn't have been consistent, and he was also trying to save his life here.

Since we know Timbo is town, if we assume HG15 is also town (at least at this time) based on this, then that leaves at least one of starseed and diss as scum, and potentially both. I'd rank starseed slightly more suspicious than diss, based on the thoughts in my previous post.

[bizaro86]

There. I've tried to put each thought into its own post as much as possible so they can be quoted and discussed. Part of my goal here was to post my list, check my thoughts with past posts, and generally spur discussion, as I agree we've been too quiet.

One final thought. One of party's defenses of himself was how handy his TVR stats that he's been keeping are. I agree that's useful information to have, but it doesn't seem to have any probative value towards alignment to me.

If we lynch him, I'll commit to continuing the stats when he flips host/turned.

vote: party elephant

[GGG]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

GGG, was this "oling is unturned" stuff misdirection to protect your plan for a night kill and get more information out of oling before his death? If not I'm confused as to what changed your mind.

This was misdirection. If Oling was turned night 5 and a uncoverted towny given the spore night 6 it was important that the host did not know that I considered oling a suspect as they could recall so the spore wouldn't go to pux.

[Peanut]

Back from vacation. Busy day at work. Will post tonight, including current list.

[squiggs96]

Day 8 seems like the quietest day so far. How much of it is from:

• Holidays, weather, Stampede, etc.
• People getting worn out from the game
• Hosts happy to let a few people talk while they all sit silently
• Not much is happening, so if you are a reactionary poster, then you don't have much to react to if no new or more hotly discussed theories aren't being put out there

I'll update the lists once we get a couple more in, and then give some analysis. bizaro has posted his, but we are still waiting for Peanut, Pux and PE. What is with you P letter names?


Pux was on CP earlier today, posted in one thread and viewed others. I don't want to be that guy who monitors you, but at this point of the game and the game day, you need to be here a couple times per day. PE is on NZL time, so his posting won't always match up with our work day. I haven't seen Peanut yet either.

[GirlySports]

Vote Count

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 3 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn't Voted (7):, squiggs96, Puxlut, GGG, Party Elephant, starseed, Hockeyguy15, dissentowner

Voted
dissentowner (1): Peanut
Party Elephant (1): bizaro86

The deadline is Tuesday, July 7th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

[GGG]

vote bizaro86. I'm ready to go.

[squiggs96]

He's my #1 suspect.

Vote bizaro86

I gave my thoughts yesterday. I have the same townies as you guys for the most part, but the rest of you, I don't trust.
I've voted biz before. I can get on it again.

Would you like to do a death post Biz?

[GGG]

I don't think we have anything to gain. He's laid out his suspects pretty clearly.

Just hoping for someone to completely snap pre-lynch. Who did it last game? That was awesome.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

I gave my thoughts yesterday. I have the same townies as you guys for the most part, but the rest of you, I don't trust.
I've voted biz before. I can get on it again.

Would you like to do a death post Biz?

Can you give a list of your town, turned and hosts? Saying it's for the most part doesn't cut it when our lists are all slightly different. There are people on some people's town lists that are on other's host lists.

Peanut needs to post too.

Top choices for scum: Biz and Party
Turned: IDK SS?

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Day 8 seems like the quietest day so far. How much of it is from:

• Holidays, weather, Stampede, etc.
• People getting worn out from the game
• Hosts happy to let a few people talk while they all sit silently
• Not much is happening, so if you are a reactionary poster, then you don't have much to react to if no new or more hotly discussed theories aren't being put out there

I'll update the lists once we get a couple more in, and then give some analysis. bizaro has posted his, but we are still waiting for Peanut, Pux and PE. What is with you P letter names?


Pux was on CP earlier today, posted in one thread and viewed others. I don't want to be that guy who monitors you, but at this point of the game and the game day, you need to be here a couple times per day. PE is on NZL time, so his posting won't always match up with our work day. I haven't seen Peanut yet either.

For me it's because july is the month where #### hits the fan at my work. My sales volumes more than doubled pretty much overnight, I haven't had a day off in quite some time and my shifts are typically of the 11-12 hour variety. Back in may i figured the mafia game would be over by now, how naive i was.

I didn't come here to moan about my work though, I came here to
vote: bizarro86
because I've had enough of him. I don't really have the time or the energy to do a long quote-filled post like this one but I'm even more frustrated now than I was back then with him. It's pretty obvious he saved mrkajz with that awkard fumble to cause a no lynch (hmmm let me wait just long enough to vote so it's past the deadline...). I regret not immediately voting for him like I suggested at the time. And he has the nerve to say I saved mrkajz. The only time I unvoted mrkajz was to prevent a tie the next day, which he immediately tried to turn back into a tie. I should have known.

So long biz, I look forward to meeting you in the PGT. Now if you'll all excuse me, I really need to get some sleep.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

It's pretty obvious he saved mrkajz with that awkard fumble to cause a no lynch (hmmm let me wait just long enough to vote so it's past the deadline...). I regret not immediately voting for him like I suggested at the time. And he has the nerve to say I saved mrkajz. The only time I unvoted mrkajz was to prevent a tie the next day, which he immediately tried to turn back into a tie. I should have known.

Firstly, he didn't save mrkaj. The sudden death thing was being discussed beforehand, and they would have known that Oling was an unturned town who would have prevented a tie and voted with biz.

Originally Posted by GGG

I also don't have a good idea on who the 1 or possibly 2 turned are.

So far we have the spore going:

Night 0 - oling unturned
Night 1 - girly unturned
Night 2 - no one
Night 3 - Seb turned
Night 4 - devo unturned
Night 5 - oling / other turned
Night 6 - other / oling turned
Night 7 - other - ???

I checked the following (keep in mind if I check a person night 5 and they get the spore night 5 I do not kill the,)
Night 1 - party
Night 2 - oling
Night 3 - Seb
Night 4 - Bizaro
Night 5 - Dis
Night 6 - Hockeyguy
Night 7 - oling

Secondly, you have been voting with mrkaj more than just that time. Your switch on day 3 was timed perfectly to save mrkaj. You voted day 4 with mrkaj right after him to put votes onto me to save mrkaj. The next day you immediately started back on me again.

Biz's only suspicious move was being the fifth person to vote ECF when mrkaj had 3 votes. The last minute mrkaj vote on day 4 had to have been a mistake, and he probably would not have even done it if he were scum. I think HG was turned by Oling, and HG listed biz and diss, who are not in my host list.


I think it's lynch or lose. I still think it is PE and peanut. I am holding my vote until later today.

[Hockeyguy15]

vote bizaro86

[starseed]

Good game.

For what it's worth,

Vote: party elephant

[Hockeyguy15]

Since we are waiting I thought I would ask, Starseed why do you think I'm turned now?