Russia invades Ukraine

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Southside

Given the apparent lack of readiness of all other equipment i couldn't help but wonder if their ICBMs are maintained. I'm sure there is required maintenance on those too?

Now let me preface this by saying I know nothing about their command and control structure, but the thing I've been wondering is if the order is given, whether or not it would even be followed. We've already seen this on smaller scales like during the Cold War with Submarine B-59.

Obviously not something to bank on but a interesting consideration

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Russia isn't going to use nukes in Ukraine so it's kind of irrelevant. Their nukes aren't stopping us from providing weapons or assistance in other ways.

I don't think Putin's threats were that he would use nukes in Ukraine. I think it was more that he would use them on Paris, Berlin, London, Washington, etc... If he is going down, he will taken the world with him.

Whether or not he actually would, I don't know. Does he care about humanity at all, or just Russia? It's not something I would gamble on. The man is a monster as far as I am concerned.

[Harry Lime]

I think that there has to be a line that his Generals won't cross for Putin. Starting a nuclear war, where all of their own families would die, might be the point they say enough.

[accord1999]

Interesting article about the Russian invasion using a wargame. Despite the negative coverage of the Russian performance, by and large they have done what was expected.

Despite a few stark differences, the current Russian offensive is playing out in ways eerily similar to that simulation. By the time the wargame ended, the overall situation appeared very much as it does on the ground in Ukraine, with only two major deviations. First, the Russians have pushed harder out of Belarus to the west of the Dneiper — north of Kyiv — to strike the city from the rear. And secondly, the Russian assault in Kherson was temporarily halted, as the axis of advance in the south for a time turned northeast toward Mariupol.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/th...tacks-ukraine/

It provides background detail on the deployment of Ukrainian ground forces and insight on the Russian movements so far.

In the game, moving away from the line of control proved difficult, as retreats under pressure always are. At least six Ukrainian battalions were overrun, and the remainder endured serious losses to aerial interdiction en route to the Dnieper. In the actual conflict, there are recent reports of Ukrainian units moving off these lines suffering large losses, as the wargame predicted. Still, the retreat was necessary in the wargame to ensure those forces were not encircled from the north and by forces moving out of Crimea. These same concerns appear to be driving the Ukrainians in the real fight.

In the wargame, the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army attacked on an axis aimed at the Dnieper River bend, intent on bypassing Kharkiv to the north while the 20th Combined Arms Army approached the outskirts of Kharkiv. This appears to be exactly what the Russian forces have been attempting in the first 96-hours of the war.

If the Russians bypassed the city, the Ukrainians could have looked for counterattack opportunities after Russia’s leading combat formations had gone past. If they attacked the city in force with the 20th Combined Arms Army, the Ukrainians could have turned it into another Stalingrad. In real life, the Ukrainians appear to have opted to do as our after-action analysis tells us was the best course of action, and Kharkiv continues to hold out against increasingly ferocious Russian assaults.

In the game the Russian advance out of the Crimea was their most rapid and successful operation. When the game ended, the Russians were poised to strike in one or more of three directions — west to Odessa, east to envelop the Ukrainians retreat out of the defensive lines along the separatist regions, or north to dislocate the Ukraine’s defense of the Dnieper line. On the fifth day of the war, we find a similar situation, with the Russian forces having flowed out of the Crimea into close to the same positions they occupied in the wargame, and with the same choices before them as we found in the wargame.

As the wargame ended, the Ukrainians were under pressure in the north, with Russian forces closing in on the eastern approaches to Kyiv and the Dnieper River, while also beginning to cross the border from Belarus into the northwest through the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. In the east, the Russians were starting to encircle Kharkiv and the 8th Combined Arms Army was emerging from the Donetsk area to attack towards Melitopol and the Dnieper River. Again, this is almost precisely what we are seeing on the ground in Ukraine on the war’s fifth day.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

I think we've all vastly overrated Russia's armed forces. Their best stuff is in limited numbers and is probably plagued with reliability issues or isn't in the same league as NATO equipment.

Its a corrupt country, top to bottom, the entire society. Corruption always breeds complacency and a lack of diligence. The haughty Russian attitude that they're the best and everyone should watch out is bull####.

I think it is too early to make such lofty proclamations. It has gone “well” so far, but unless Russia only has 200k troops in total (the number that was lined up around Ukraine before this started), we haven’t seen anywhere close to their entire arsenal.

I sure hope I’m wrong and this is their best… but I just can’t believe it is true.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by btimbit

Now let me preface this by saying I know nothing about their command and control structure, but the thing I've been wondering is if the order is given, whether or not it would even be followed. We've already seen this on smaller scales like during the Cold War with Submarine B-59.

Obviously not something to bank on but a interesting consideration

Just a little bit on the launch protocals.


https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...es-2022-03-02/


I would assume that since Putin has issued the alert and threatened nuclear retaliation, that its extremely likely that the members of the General Staff are loyal to him and would launch without hesitation. Though you could argue that 3 of the 4 scenarios would not be applicable but the fourth the use of conventional weapons against Russia putting the state in jeapordy might be able to be argued if NATO starts attacking the Russian Military in Ukraine.



I also expect that the FSB is very loyal to him and they are probably at the very least have officers posted at nuclear facilities to make sure the troops are loyal.



In the old soviet system subs and naval ships had political officers as did most military units and they were literally the ones that ensured a launch order was carried out.



I would make the assumption right now that if Putin put out a launch order it would be carried out.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by calculoso

I think it is too early to make such lofty proclamations. It has gone “well” so far, but unless Russia only has 200k troops in total (the number that was lined up around Ukraine before this started), we haven’t seen anywhere close to their entire arsenal.

I sure hope I’m wrong and this is their best… but I just can’t believe it is true.

The number of actual troops they have may not be as important as the number of troops they can sustain while being deployed to a war zone. If their logistics can only support a certain number of soldiers in the battlefield, the total size of their force matters less.

It certainly helps that they can keep throwing meat into the field to replace bodies I guess, but as sanctions continue to grip them, I have to wonder how small that will shrink the number of deployable personnel.

[81MC]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

I think that there has to be a line that his Generals won't cross for Putin. Starting a nuclear war, where all of their own families would die, might be the point they say enough.

That’s my thoughts. One madman wants to take the world down, I can’t see those around him feeling the same. Now maybe they’ve done a great job isolating and indoctrinating everyone with the power to make such things happen, but I just don’t see a group of people all willing to jump on the nuclear launch train because someone says go.

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by FormerPresJamesTaylor

How would that work? What would the potential fall out be if any?

Originally Posted by btimbit

Long story short they don't want to escalate

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Because it would lead to a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, and likely a nuclear war. Russia has already threatened the nuclear option if NATO directly interferes.

In fact, the part that worries me is how long it will take before they consider sending weapons and sanctions as a direct act of war.

Could they not have hit that 40 mile convoy with air strikes? Or Russian logistical centers?

My concerns is that if the EU/UK/US is not willing to conduct air strikes or put boots on the ground, there won't be enough of a deterrent for Putin or any other future Russian leader to do this again.

Things have escalated to this point because of Putin. The west needs to push back here.

[CaptainCrunch]

Looks like Russia is re-enforcing which means they intend to take this thing all the way.

There

https://twitter.com/user/status/1499385584028110848

There are ZU-23 Shika's which are very bad news for low flying aircraft and missiles.

It looks like BTR-60's as well. Looks like a motor-rifle division. with an ant-air attachment.


Because this equipment looks older to say the least, this is likely a C Category unit.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

The number of actual troops they have may not be as important as the number of troops they can sustain while being deployed to a war zone. If their logistics can only support a certain number of soldiers in the battlefield, the total size of their force matters less.

I guess without saying it, I was assuming that having more manpower would be accompanied with more equipment, more food, more gas, more weapons, etc. The logistics of having the “machine” work in the field is certainly an important point that I didn’t think about though.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

Could they not have hit that 40 mile convoy with air strikes? Or Russian logistical centers?

My concerns is that if the EU/UK/US is not willing to conduct air strikes or put boots on the ground, there won't be enough of a deterrent for Putin or any other future Russian leader to do this again.

Things have escalated to this point because of Putin. The west needs to push back here.

Who NATO? That's a quick way to widen the war to be honest. Frankly lets play along with that. NATO starts launching airstrikes into the Ukraine from airfields in Poland, Germany etc. The Russian military has to shut down those airfields, they can't let NATO take control of the air. Plus lets say you go after logistical centers, they're usually parked pretty close to civilian infrastructure. .

[sureLoss]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1499540452466384896

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by calculoso

I think it is too early to make such lofty proclamations. It has gone “well” so far, but unless Russia only has 200k troops in total (the number that was lined up around Ukraine before this started), we haven’t seen anywhere close to their entire arsenal.

I sure hope I’m wrong and this is their best… but I just can’t believe it is true.

It's just not a question of how large the total Russian Army is though, most of it is spoken for guarding other areas, their troops in Syria and Georgia have to stay there or they run the risk of things breaking out their again.

The forces they commit to Ukraine will also be useless after the conflict is over for some time, this is true for any army win or lose, the kit, the tanks aircraft trucks etc used in active service are subject to high levels of stress with poor maintenance in combat, most of it will have to be withdrawn from service for months, vast amounts will be just plain useless even before you count the gear that the Ukrainians capture or destroy, right now the Russian High Command is trying to balance the potential insecurity that being seen to withdraw causes with the actual insecurity committing the vast bulk of its forces to a war that will render it useless for years afterwards causes, there is little point in 'winning' a smoking ruin of the Ukraine if you then find yourself unable to defend Georgia or Syria etc even Belarus from the slightest trouble.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by 81MC

That’s my thoughts. One madman wants to take the world down, I can’t see those around him feeling the same. Now maybe they’ve done a great job isolating and indoctrinating everyone with the power to make such things happen, but I just don’t see a group of people all willing to jump on the nuclear launch train because someone says go.

I wonder what Russia's protocol is for this sort of thing, like what fail safes they have. How many people does it take to make the decision and can one person veto the call to deploy nukes, if the others want to? Does Putin have the ability to do it alone?

I am asking because I honestly have no idea how nuclear strikes work. People talk about "pushing the button", which makes it sound like a really automated process. I assume it isn't really that simple and that "pushing the button" really just puts into motion a chain of events where people have to physically prepare and launch them, but I really don't know if this is true or how many free-thinking humans have to take part in the process. It seems like the more humans involved, the greater chance of the chain breaking down. Then again, maybe the more people along the chain removes any feelings of personal responsibility and makes it easier to pull off.

I am sure there must have been psychological studies on these types of situations.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Southside

Given the apparent lack of readiness of all other equipment i couldn't help but wonder if their ICBMs are maintained. I'm sure there is required maintenance on those too?

It doesn't really matter, because they could destroy basically the entirety of the USA and Europe without firing a single ICBM, with the ~500 or so warheads that are currently ready for use on submarines that are active as we speak.

That of course is to say nothing of the fact that even if a full half of their ICBMs were non-functional for whatever reason, they could still end the human race entirely with the other half.

Originally Posted by calculoso

I guess without saying it, I was assuming that having more manpower would be accompanied with more equipment, more food, more gas, more weapons, etc. The logistics of having the “machine” work in the field is certainly an important point that I didn’t think about though.

More manpower, equipment, gas, weapons, food, all costs money. By holding out, the Ukrainians bleed the bank account, which is obviously in no small amount of trouble at this point. I still haven't read any reasonable estimate as to how long Russia can sustain the spend, other than some people guessing a couple of months. I don't think Ukraine can last that long, but every day they do last is enormously damaging to Russia, not so much militarily, but in broader terms of its stability as a country.

[Knut]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

https://twitter.com/user/status/1499540452466384896

https://twitter.com/user/status/1499527941377732609

Live Camera from there. You can see something on fire and a firefight.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by Knut

https://twitter.com/user/status/1499527941377732609

Live Camera from there. You can see something on fire and a firefight.

This is so surreal to watch

[afc wimbledon]

My guess is as we are reading this there are quiet conversations going on in the Russian High Command as to when and who has to go tell the boss that the Army is on the verge of being non functional if they carry on, that yes they can level Ukraine but after that the whole of Russia will essentially be defenceless as they will have no ability or money to rearm or replace and they may not be able to sustain internal security

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by belsarius

This is so surreal to watch

The semi-good news is that the camera is where the reactors are, the building under attack is an administration/training building.