Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[8sPOT]

Would be awesome if Johnny signs say this week and then Treliving can get to work on Tkachuk and as well as plan for some moves at the draft.

Johnny unsigned makes it tough to make any real moves.

[Toonage]

Tre has had a year to prepare for this. The powerpoint is probably nothing short of amazing.

[Monahammer]

I fear that I have made a very, very bitter mistake. I urge everyone to take my edit seriously. If I could delete two pages worth of thread I would.

[Shazam]

Why? It's just another rumour.

[Ashasx]

...so was it bad info or just something that shouldn't have been shared?

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by Shazam

Why? It's just another rumour.

Because you don't want to burn a bridge with a source, and this forum shouldn't want that either. Mods should actually consider a ninja edit, so that next time we can get an interesting tidbit as opposed to the whole enchilada, or absolutely nothing.

[Vinny01]

If that is good info but shouldn’t be shared everyone who quoted the original should edit their post accordingly. If it was bad info I trust it was not intentional and just passing on what the OP thought was truthful.

[saillias]

The leaked offer doesn't sound impressive to me. (Sorry to the guy who regrets sharing but pandora's box is opened) Money seems low. The guarantees of various perks seem tacky and counterproductive to promise.

[Vinny01]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ed-free-agents

Some predictions on what key RFA’s will do. The ones speculated to move are Boeser, and Fiala. This writer has Tkachuk, and Laine signing 8 year 9.5M deals with the Flames and Jackets.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

I think everyone in the league sees that contract as being too high.

Strongly disagree with you there. Ignoring everything else, there's been strong rumours that he turned down more money from the BJs, Islanders and Avalanche to become a Ranger. Even during the off-season we heard that the Rangers weren't budging on their 11.5M offer and were therefore out of the running.

26 year old top tier UFA player testing free agent market. There's been only a handful of players to have reached that point who weren't eligible for 4436 year contracts like Suter and Parise.

The year before Tavares got 11M. He played center but it's not like he was ever a Selke candidate. And he wasn't even the leading scorer for the Islanders when he left (Barzal coming from no where to take that title). Panarin was putting up point-per-game numbers (82 in 81 games) when his linemates had troubled scoring 50 (Dubois had 48 and Atkinson 46). He lead the next highest scorer on his team by 25 points (Seth Jones). Lead the Jackets in playoff scoring for the two years he was with them.

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

The Rangers didn't and as we see every year, over and over, it only takes one team.

BJ's allegedly offered 100M, 12.5M per, to keep him. The Islanders were apparently the favourites heading into free agency with a 7 year contract worth 12.5M per year as well. Freidman reported Avalanche had a 12.5M contract on the table too (Drater had the offer at 11.75M).

I think the biggest thing with Panarin is that he immediately exceeded expectations. 97 points in 69 games? Hart and Lindsay nomination. Since joining the Rangers only McDavid, Draisaitl and MacKinnon have higher point-per-games then his 249 in 186 games (110 points pro-rated to 82 games). And his team is fighting with the repeat defenders and he's obviously instrumental to that.

You can look at Tavares and see reason for disappointment. He was supposed to be the piece to take them over the edge. But four years later and he hasn't been out of the first round yet and they are in cap hell while Tavares is about to be 32 and should be slowing down. A reminder that winning UFA period is far from a recipe to putting a good team together, but Panarin is closer to the antithesis. Unless they do blow that previous 2-0 lead, they were about to fight for the Cup, lots of cap space, lots of young quality players (thanks to lottery and prima donnas) and no reason that Panarin will become an albatross contract by the time its done.

[GioforPM]

^^ notwithstanding the above, I think Panarin’s contract was seen as too high in retrospect, since only Marner has come anywhere close (as a winger, and he only signed for 6 years so less total dollars). Stone was the big fish and he got 9.5 - 76M total. Kucherov: 9.5/76 as well.

Even centres don’t make that dough. Barkov’s extension is 10/80M. Mika Z is 8.5/68

[OptimalTates]

Marner's contract has 4 years of RFA and 2 years of UFA, he will be 27 when it is done. It's comparable to Gaudreau's expired contract, not his next.

And yes, other contracts haven't been as high but I would say the two biggest reasons are pretty obvious. Contracts, previously, had kept going up with the assumption that the salary cap would keep going up. Covid messed with that, but we're looking to be back on track.

More importantly, who have been the prize UFAs in the last two UFA periods? Pietrangelo and Dougie? Which was the last forward at all comparable to Gaudreau? Panarin.

Kucherov signing an 8 year extension as an RFA and staying in Florida on a top team (that would be proven) and low taxes that would require Gaudreau to make much more if he wanted to earn the same in Calgary isn't really a great comparable in my mind.

[OptimalTates]

But even if we ignore Kucherov signed as an RFA in 2018 (75M cap compared to today's 81.5M).

According to this calculator, which is far too simple to look at bonuses and schedules and tax deductions and the like, but $9,500,000 in Florida results in $6,020,150 in take home pay. $11,500,000 in Calgary results in $6,014,500 take home pay.

[Enoch Root]

Panarin was signed pre-Covid, when the cap was escalating quickly and steadily. It was also only 7 years, not 8, and he wasn't yet 28. He will be 34 in his final year. Johnny turns 29 this summer, and would be 36 in his final year.

If you think Panarin and Gaudreau are fair comparables, then something about $1-2M less would make sense.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If you think Panarin and Gaudreau are fair comparables, then something about $1-2M less would make sense.

We are a month away from finding out one way or another.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

But even if we ignore Kucherov signed as an RFA in 2018 (75M cap compared to today's 81.5M).

According to this calculator, which is far too simple to look at bonuses and schedules and tax deductions and the like, but $9,500,000 in Florida results in $6,020,150 in take home pay. $11,500,000 in Calgary results in $6,014,500 take home pay.

RFA contracts are not the difference they used to be. Look at Marner. Taxes - if your agent is simple I suppose they make a difference. But it’s actually not. And none of the teams that can afford Gaudreau and would be interested in him are in tax havens as far as I can see anyway.

Anyway, like I keep saying, players care less about yearly salary than they do total contract value. That’s why year 8 is critical.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

RFA contracts are not the difference they used to be. Look at Marner. Taxes - if your agent is simple I suppose they make a difference. But it’s actually not. And none of the teams that can afford Gaudreau and would be interested in him are in tax havens as far as I can see anyway.

Anyway, like I keep saying, players care less about yearly salary than they do total contract value. That’s why year 8 is critical.

Really?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Really?

Yes. When you hear players talk about a contract they talk much more often about how much it’s worth in total. Which makes sense. These guys are planning for retirement from very early in their career.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by CGY12

So Johnny and his agent have identified exactly what my previous posts are about (if this is true). Johnny knows he's the only one on his line and the team that can do this effectively, every game, at a high level, and he realizes for the team to get to the next level, he needs more support. This may come across as a self pat on the back (o well) but I'm just ecstatic that somebody realizes this is a major issue during playoff hockey.

How do they address this if they are going to keep the line intact? Is this meaning he wants other lines to have good puck carriers or that Lindholm and Chucky need to learn how to do this.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

How do they address this if they are going to keep the line intact? Is this meaning he wants other lines to have good puck carriers or that Lindholm and Chucky need to learn how to do this.

Or they need to acquire a more offensive dman who can carry the puck.

This my guess what he was meaning