Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[gladaki]

So real estate will be dropping soon?

[The Yen Man]

I get that no one knows the future, but for some reason, I feel like sometimes, for the doom and gloom folks who predict crash after crash, it's more wishful thinking than anything else. I guess we'll see what 2015 brings. Sure, there may be a slight correction, but I honestly am not too worried about any drastic decrease. Doesn't really matter much to me though, as I already have a house and am locked in quite comfortably in my mortgage.

[1stLand]

When the Flames win the cup this Spring, everyone will want to move here.
Sending real estate prices skyrocketing upwards

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by gladaki

So real estate will be dropping soon?

Once the mass O&G layoffs begin the dominos will start falling.

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

I get that no one knows the future, but for some reason, I feel like sometimes, for the doom and gloom folks who predict crash after crash, it's more wishful thinking than anything else. I guess we'll see what 2015 brings. Sure, there may be a slight correction, but I honestly am not too worried about any drastic decrease. Doesn't really matter much to me though, as I already have a house and am locked in quite comfortably in my mortgage.

That's good that you've got a"feeling" but when the premier and CEOs of the provinces biggest oil companies are predicting tough times ahead I tend to believe them.

[gladaki]

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

Once the mass O&G layoffs begin the dominos will start falling.

That's good that you've got a"feeling" but when the premier and CEOs of the provinces biggest oil companies are predicting tough times ahead I tend to believe them.

True

[Slava]

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

Once the mass O&G layoffs begin the dominos will start falling.

That's good that you've got a"feeling" but when the premier and CEOs of the provinces biggest oil companies are predicting tough times ahead I tend to believe them.

Just out of curiousity, any predictions from these people when oil was at $100 say 6-8 months ago that we should prepared for $30 oil that they now predict? I'm not saying it won't happen, but more curious as to how much predictive power these guys have or how far into the future they can make these predictions.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Slava

Just out of curiousity, any predictions from these people when oil was at $100 say 6-8 months ago that we should prepared for $30 oil that they now predict? I'm not saying it won't happen, but more curious as to how much predictive power these guys have or how far into the future they can make these predictions.

Doubtful that an O&G CEO or a government official would make such devastating predictions public. Until its too late that is. Then they tell everyone that they knew all along and were prepared.

As far as analysts go, there were some that saw a fall in coming years. There were probably as many that saw it go the other way. That's the problem with analysts, they just state opinions.

[Table 5]

The good news with the economy slowing down, is that maybe I'll finally be able to get a contractor to call me back...never mind do a good job, or on time, or on budget. Call it short-sighted schadenfreude, but if the economy goes downhill, I really hope the development/construction industry in this town gets a nice cold shower.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Table 5

The good news with the economy slowing down, is that maybe I'll finally be able to get a contractor to call me back...never mind do a good job, or on time, or on budget. Call it short-sighted schadenfreude, but if the economy goes downhill, I really hope the development/construction industry in this town gets a nice cold shower.

No kidding. And maybe get some qualified people to take and serve a food order at a restaurant without messing up. It's frustrating that we have such poor service everywhere.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Red

Doubtful that an O&G CEO or a government official would make such devastating predictions public. Until its too late that is. Then they tell everyone that they knew all along and were prepared.

As far as analysts go, there were some that saw a fall in coming years. There were probably as many that saw it go the other way. That's the problem with analysts, they just state opinions.

Yeah, and I get that. I am just reminded of watching Jeff Rubin on BNN in 2008 predicting that the market could fall below 9600 points just as it was crashing into the 8000's on the right hand side of the screen. He was the same guy predicting $200 oil when oil was in the $140's.

Its good TV, and maybe sells some newspapers, but I have a hard time believing these predictions. I will be interested to see the annual reports from some of these companies though.

[chemgear]

We can all sit comfortably here on CP in the meantime with our piles and piles of cash.

Seriously though in terms of seeing things coming, it isn't like US shale production and fracking has been a brand new thing that just started last week.

[flamesfever]

Originally Posted by Slava

Just out of curiousity, any predictions from these people when oil was at $100 say 6-8 months ago that we should prepared for $30 oil that they now predict? I'm not saying it won't happen, but more curious as to how much predictive power these guys have or how far into the future they can make these predictions.

IMO all you can say is the large companies operate on their ability to reasonably predict the long term price, on the basis of supply and demand. However as to the short and medium term, there are so many variables that it is next to impossible to predict.

[Red]

Already in another thread so removing it

[kevman]

Oh great this again....

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Slava

Its good TV, and maybe sells some newspapers, but I have a hard time believing these predictions. I will be interested to see the annual reports from some of these companies though.

There's a difference between being skeptical and burying your head in the sand/being blissfully ignorant.

Hard time believing these predictions? This isn't one lunatic spouting off on TV. These are very connected and educated people predicting very tough times ahead. These are major O&G companies who have put on a hiring freeze for the last 4 months. This is history repeating itself. This is the global financial markets reacting to a global oil glut.

It could be worse, at least we're not Russia.

It's time to wake up and become aware of our current financial situation. Especially coming from a guy working in the financial industry.

Where is that Saddam everything is alright photo when we need it.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

There's a difference between being skeptical and burying your head in the sand/being blissfully ignorant.

Hard time believing these predictions? This isn't one lunatic spouting off on TV. These are very connected and educated people predicting very tough times ahead. These are major O&G companies who have put on a hiring freeze for the last 4 months. This is history repeating itself. This is the global financial markets reacting to a global oil glut.

It could be worse, at least we're not Russia.

It's time to wake up and become aware of our current financial situation. Especially coming from a guy working in the financial industry.

Where is that Saddam everything is alright photo when we need it.

So you are expecting years of cheap oil and massive layoffs then, right? Just want to make sure that you have your prediction laid out.

[ExiledFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Slava

So you are expecting years of cheap oil and massive layoffs then, right? Just want to make sure that you have your prediction laid out.

I'm starting to sound like a broken record. There will be mass layoffs and 2015 will be a very bad year.

If you'd like to post anything at all that suggests otherwise, feel free.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan

I'm starting to sound like a broken record. There will be mass layoffs and 2015 will be a very bad year.

If you'd like to post anything at all that suggests otherwise, feel free.

I'm not making predictions here. I just have no idea why you are posting this over and over when you could be shorting oil at this point and getting ready to count your money? You're convinced its going to happen, so you might as well profit off it?

[chemgear]

It's never as good or as bad as we'll think it is.

Until it actually is.

[flamesfever]

Originally Posted by chemgear

It's never as good or as bad as we'll think it is.

Until it actually is.

This reminds me of a speech from I think the president of Air Canada, taken from an old doctor long ago, "As bad as it gets, it will get better, and as good as it gets, it will get worse".