Alberta Politics Thread v2

[Manhattanboy]

So we can agree that the Notley NDP and the Trudeau Liberals have screwed Alberta 1000x worse than imagined?

[Muta]

Depends who you ask. My day-to-day life has not changed at all when either PCs or NDP were in power. Not sure how either party can really do anything regarding the global price of oil either, if that's one's concern (which is not mine). All I know is the following things: one, I'm not voting for either of those parties; two, I'm definitely not voting for the federal Liberals, and three: the PCs in power in this province didn't do anything for 30 years to diversify our economy and that was so incredibly short-sighted it's astounding.

[DiracSpike]

They spent thirty years pushing the "Profit From Natural Resources" button but never pushed the "Diversify Economy" button when it was right there the whole time! The fools, damn damn fools.

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

They spent thirty years pushing the "Profit From Natural Resources" button but never pushed the "Diversify Economy" button when it was right there the whole time! The fools, damn damn fools.

If only we could have taken advantage of the government diversification programs offered in NDP-led Saskatchewan, Cuba, or Venezuela!

[Muta]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

They spent thirty years pushing the "Profit From Natural Resources" button but never pushed the "Diversify Economy" button when it was right there the whole time! The fools, damn damn fools.

LOL. Pretty obvious to start planning for diversification instead of putting all your eggs in one basket, no? Particularly with the advent of advanced technologies through the 90s? Oil and gas has always been volatile, you don't have to look far into your crystal ball to understand that.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Muta

LOL. Pretty obvious to start planning for diversification instead of putting all your eggs in one basket, no? Particularly with the advent of advanced technologies through the 90s? Oil and gas has always been volatile, you don't have to look far into your crystal ball to understand that.

Can you post year by year the % of the economy related to oil in gas in Alberta from 1990 to present. The graph may surprise you.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Muta

LOL. Pretty obvious to start planning for diversification instead of putting all your eggs in one basket, no? Particularly with the advent of advanced technologies through the 90s?

The 90s were the start of the massive Chinese economic boom, which also resulted in the greatest energy boom in history.

Oil and gas has always been volatile, you don't have to look far into your crystal ball to understand that.

But over a longer period of time, always a great generator of wealth. And while Buffet referred to investing, I think it's very valid for economies as well:

And I can guarantee that going into a seventh one instead of putting more money into your first one is gotta be a terrible mistake. Very few people have gotten rich on their seventh best idea. But a lot of people have gotten rich with their best idea.

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by GGG

Can you post year by year the % of the economy related to oil in gas in Alberta from 1990 to present. The graph may surprise you.

Would also love to see examples of government funded diversification success stories to compare with.

These fictions need to stop.

[Jacks]

They provided a business friendly environment with reasonable regulations, low taxes, and a healthy educated workforce, what more can you do to attract business?

Was the problem facing new industries that the resource sector sucked up most of the talent? Maybe.
If that is the case what was the government supposed to do about it, tell the resource sector to stop growing?

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

Would also love to see examples of government funded diversification success stories to compare with.

These fictions need to stop.

A few examples here:

https://www.wd-deo.gc.ca/eng/19682.asp

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

A few examples here:

https://www.wd-deo.gc.ca/eng/19682.asp

That's a list of where the Canadian government has spent money. There's basically nothing in there to show if, or how, successful any of that spending has been. One of the major projects listed is OIL AND GAS.

I'm looking for a comparison or summary of diversification of economies over a similar time period. What's the GDP impact?

[Muta]

Originally Posted by GGG

Can you post year by year the % of the economy related to oil in gas in Alberta from 1990 to present. The graph may surprise you.

Did it go down? If so, it still isn't enough.

Also, if O+G is so lucrative, why is the NDP / Calgary Economic Development trying to divest now? Why wasn't this done years ago? Edmonton is booming relative to Calgary right now and it's because they've got a more diversified business portfolio than Calgary does.

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by Muta

Did it go down? If so, it still isn't enough.

Also, if O+G is so lucrative, why is the NDP / Calgary Economic Development trying to divest now? Why wasn't this done years ago? Edmonton is booming relative to Calgary right now and it's because they've got a more diversified business portfolio than Calgary does.

You've got a source for this, I assume?

[Flamenspiel]

Originally Posted by Muta

Did it go down? If so, it still isn't enough.

Also, if O+G is so lucrative, why is the NDP / Calgary Economic Development trying to divest now? Why wasn't this done years ago? Edmonton is booming relative to Calgary right now and it's because they've got a more diversified business portfolio than Calgary does.

Diversified? Lol, you mean like moving people from the private sector to the public sector, there is a reason why the NDP is so popular in Edmonton. I think your being very naive.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by Muta

LOL. Pretty obvious to start planning for diversification instead of putting all your eggs in one basket, no? Particularly with the advent of advanced technologies through the 90s? Oil and gas has always been volatile, you don't have to look far into your crystal ball to understand that.

You know what's not obvious? How to just diversify your economy. It's really hard, and not magic. I've had this discussion with you before and you failed to give any examples of what should have been done that wasn't besides vague government subsidy programs, or how allowing a oil and gas boom to happen was "putting all the eggs in one basket". You play the hands you're dealt, have you looked around and noticed that there are no big cities around anywhere besides Calgary and Edmonton? Sask, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, all of BC except for Vancouver...that's not an accident, it's hard to generate an economy when you're way out in the West away from the coast or any waterbody.

As others have mentioned creating a low tax environment is basically all you can do, and that's what the government did off the back of resource revenue. We'll never be on the coast or close to eastern population but you are in control of tax rates and business environment. And as others have mentioned the dependence on O&G has gone down but that doesn't happen overnight, the "Diversify Economy" button doesn't exist despite you claiming constantly that the PC's should have been pushing it.

And Edmonton is "booming" right now thanks to 60,000 government jobs the NDP have created out of thin air since getting in.

[Muta]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

You've got a source for this, I assume?

Yeah, my own work experience. The amount of city projects going on in Edmonton versus Calgary is night and day, and has been for the last several years. In my industry, the amount of projects a city undertakes - particularly the small to medium ones - is usually indicative of how well the local economy is doing given tax revenues.

For example, there's only been two city RFPs for buildings I've seen issued in Calgary over the last three years. Edmonton, on average, is releasing a new RFP a week, and they're for projects we wouldn't even DREAM of building right now in this city.

[Fuzz]

Remember last year when we diversified into cryptocurrency mines? Ah yes. good times.

[Muta]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

You know what's not obvious? How to just diversify your economy. It's really hard, and not magic. I've had this discussion with you before and you failed to give any examples of what should have been done that wasn't besides vague government subsidy programs, or how allowing a oil and gas boom to happen was "putting all the eggs in one basket".

Link please.

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

As others have mentioned creating a low tax environment is basically all you can do, and that's what the government did off the back of resource revenue. We'll never be on the coast or close to eastern population but you are in control of tax rates and business environment. And as others have mentioned the dependence on O&G has gone down but that doesn't happen overnight, the "Diversify Economy" button doesn't exist despite you claiming constantly that the PC's should have been pushing it.

And Edmonton is "booming" right now thanks to 60,000 government jobs the NDP have created out of thin air since getting in.

The PCs should have had some foresight and invested in diversification years ago. Instead, they handed out useless 'Ralph bucks' and acted like the oil revenues would never end.

Edmonton is attracting the tech industry and has been for several years more than Calgary; they have a much larger tech scene there. This is an industry that Alberta cities should be looking at going forward given it's global reach.

EDIT: Edmonton Journal article: "'Edmonton's an obvious choice': Google acknowledges surging tech industry, offers digital skills training to entrepreneurs"

https://edmontonjournal.com/business...-entrepreneurs

[Ozy_Flame]

Regarding diversification:

I do think government's can help create conditions for better business - and I do think creating funds can help get new businesses and industries developed (e.g. the recent investment of $100 million to help attract and build AI-based companies in Alberta),

But if we need to diversify because people needs jobs and protection from unemployment, then I suggest people go into non-commodity industries with skill sets that can go between industries when needed. Healthcare, law, tech, accounting, etc.

And if you can't get a job in Alberta because it's a one trick-pony, maybe it's time to consider getting re-trained or move to other provinces or countries. Or perhaps swallow some pride and accept underemployment until conditions improve.

Looking out for #1 is the best way to protect against a province that can't diversify.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Muta

Did it go down? If so, it still isn't enough.

Also, if O+G is so lucrative, why is the NDP / Calgary Economic Development trying to divest now? Why wasn't this done years ago? Edmonton is booming relative to Calgary right now and it's because they've got a more diversified business portfolio than Calgary does.

I’m going to be lazy here and just quote Wikipedia. There are better graphs out there.

In 1985 36.1% of Alberta's $66.8 billion GDP was from energy industries. In 2012, "the mining and oil and gas extraction industry made up 23.3% of Alberta's GDP."[2] By 2013 Alberta's GDP was $331.9 billion with 24.6% in energy. The energy industry provided 7.7% of all jobs in Alberta in 2013.[3]

But I have seen numbers that range from a 30% to 50% reduction in the portion of GDP provided by the resource sector depending on how you slice the numbers.

The only problem with O+Gs portion of the economy is how much of the government revenue is dependant on O+G royalties. When 20% of government revenue is dependant on Royalties in addition to the corporate and personal taxes people pay impacts to the sector grossly impact the governments ability to pay for services. The AB gov has a revenue and spending problem not an economic diversification problem. More diversification is always good but the keys to getting that are a young educated workforce, attractive taxation, low salaries, low cost of living. The O+G booms in many ways make us too expensive to support other industries and that is a tough thing for the government to fix.


Also if your argument is Edmonton is still booming relative to Calgary hasn’t the previous Provincial governments done a good job diversifying?