CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Why would PE and I be content to have one of us lynched, if both of us are hosts? This makes absolutely no sense.

I don't get what you were thinking, because your statements contradict each other. You gave a bunch of reasons for voting Timbo. One of them was you thought the hosts were happy with how the day was going. This would imply that either PE or myself, who were the top two vote getters, were about to get lynched. If PE and myself are both town, then yes the hosts would want this. In your post when you voted Timbo, you said the hosts were happy with this. You voted Timbo to try and move the votes away from both of us, because you said the hosts were content, but then next thing I know you call PE and I hosts.

Since then you have gone on diatribes about how PE and I are both hosts, with Peanut being the third. If you really thought this, then why would you think the hosts would have been happy with one of their own being lynched? If you thought PE and I were hosts why would you vote for Timbo, instead of either of PE and I? You've said that PE and I are for sure scum. You've posted "evidence" of it all over the place. In spite of that, you vote for Timbo, and all 7 votes come off of us.

Yesterday, while I listed all of you as my top host suspects, it did not necessarily believe you were working together. If I did, I would have just you three on my list and the other 9 people on town. With Timbo revealing town, as everytime someone dies, I have to go back and reassess things. I do believe you three are and having been working together at this point though because options are dwindling.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Your vote for Timbo baffles me. Instead of you voting for one of your top two scum picks, you go for someone else. Then you try and say you lost the game for the town. Your logic is flawed. The vote is flawed. The end result is a dead townie. You have manufactured the PE element to this. It's because your logic has fallen apart.

It shouldn't baffle you. I laid out exactly what I was thinking in voting Timbo. Certainly more than just the host jumped on the lynch, although I'm also sure that they did as well. If I'm town, exactly what I said was the reason for my vote, and at least a couple townies we're on board. If I'm host or turned, then it's manufactured, but it still needs a reason.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

My best guess on why you voted Timbo, is you didn't want to vote for me, knowing that once you did, and I flip town, that you would be the next to go. You might feel that Timbo is a better player than I am and he can convince the rest of the town to follow him to lynch you. You knew you had enough suspicions on me that it would be easier to vote Timbo on Day 6 and try and get me on Day 7. If you had lynched me on Day 6, I think there would be way more heat on you today. I'm still baffled after Timbo calling for your head, me continuing to do it, that I have gotten basically zero support.

By that logic, I could have just manufactured a much easier sell on Party Elephant, not been the one to actually be his death and sat back. Unless again, we're both scum and I was trying to save him. We could lynch and find out.

[mrkajz44]

Okay - I've got my head above water for now at work, so I can chime in. I'll specifically address GGGs request as to why I'm town.

1) Voting analysis - From early on, I liked to look at the voting and see what I could see in that information. The hardest place for scum to hide is in the end result of the voting. I defended my position on the voting, especially when the heat was on me, with reasoning that attempted to buck the easy "scum would never do that" arguments. I can't do as much vote analysis anymore though, since I have been involved in lots of the voting and I will never trot out the "I know I'm town" argument because it really holds no water when we are all in the dark together.

2) Not afraid to put my opinions out there and specifically name posters - I think everyone knows I'm not a fan of HG (though I see he's doing some great vote analysis right now which I do like), and I was vocal against Starseed and Timbo from about Day 4, after the first vote moved off me. Scum love to blend and not be at the fore-front, especially calling out specific people.

3) I always post a reason for voting or unvoting - while looking at votes is probably the best way to find scum, posting a reason for voting and unvoting is a close second in my books. Nothing is more difficult that someone coming in and saying "well, you know how I feel" and then vote or unvote. It's hard to truly tell the motive for the move and very easy to get lost in the pages and pages of posts that come between the vote and the lynch

4) I try to keep my post count lower and focus on well thought out posts with good analysis in each. I feel it drives conversation a bit better and gets people talking a bit more (well, usually defending, but that's fine too). I avoid lengthy back and forths that go no where - my longest one was probably with HG and that was only 4 or 5 total posts from me. It reduces the walls of text to read and sift through and avoids everyone's conversation from getting lost (read: Oling v Squiggs)

Top three at this point:

Squiggs: I voiced this yesterday quite a bit and still feel the same way today. He has too many posts where he seems to know more than the rest of us. It's not one post in particular, but more like a "death of 1000 cuts". Just too many times he seems to be in the know. He's also filling the thread with the needless back and forth with Oling with a little too much vigor than required if he was town. Everyone gets accused in here, and most people submit responses and then move on. Squiggs just can't let the Oling spat die and that just seems odd. In my opinion someone without anything to hide should just say their piece and move on.

HG: Ever since I brought it up that he was steering, he's settled down quite a bit. I'm not sure if that is because he realized he play wasn't great for town, or his scum buddies to him to back down. Now with his vote analysis, he's fallen a bit more for me in terms of suspicion

Starseed: Lego was always a bit of an interesting read and the fact that he was replaced cannot be overlooked as a scum factor. I feel his input is somewhat lacking and the only post I really remember from Starseed was his mega post on everyone when he was on the block. Other than that, he's just blending in perfectly. Too perfectly.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Squiggs: I voiced this yesterday quite a bit and still feel the same way today. He has too many posts where he seems to know more than the rest of us. It's not one post in particular, but more like a "death of 1000 cuts". Just too many times he seems to be in the know. He's also filling the thread with the needless back and forth with Oling with a little too much vigor than required if he was town. Everyone gets accused in here, and most people submit responses and then move on. Squiggs just can't let the Oling spat die and that just seems odd. In my opinion someone without anything to hide should just say their piece and move on.

Sorry for being smarter than you?

You wouldn't feel it was needless against Oling if you had him constantly bringing up things. How many times do I need to discuss my list that doesn't have Seb? How many times do I need to discuss me thinking the Captain killed Seb? Many, many times I say I've already discussed it. Oling responds that I should say it again, and even mocks me for it. It's odd you think I'm the only one at fault over this. I'm guessing this is because I've put you and Oling as my top two scum suspects.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

HG: Ever since I brought it up that he was steering, he's settled down quite a bit. I'm not sure if that is because he realized he play wasn't great for town, or his scum buddies to him to back down. Now with his vote analysis, he's fallen a bit more for me in terms of suspicion

So I am in your top 3, and the reason for being in your top 3 is because...?

You said I was steering, and in your opinion I have backed off quite a bit now. This points to me being a host?

What else do you have about me that makes you suspicious? It seems like you just threw my name out there because you have been on me all game and are worried if you back off now it will be a red flag. I called you out before because it seemed like you were trying to manufacture a reason to be suspicious of me, are you worried I will do it again?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Sorry for being smarter than you?

You wouldn't feel it was needless against Oling if you had him constantly bringing up things.

ThingS is a keyword here for me though Squiggs96. I'm not just bringing up the point that you didn't have SebC, who was possibly turned, on your "confirmed town list" and had me on it instead.

I'm not just bringing up you trying to cast doubt on Puxlut when it was almost impossible she wasn't town.

I'm not just bringing up you slipping up and calling mrkajz44 town.

I'm not just bringing up you knowing that Peanut, Party Elephant and Dissentowner didn't have the spore (or at least wouldn't reveal).

Every day there's some new post of yours that doesn't make sense from a town perspective to me. When pressed it becomes more about who's asking the questions rather than responding to what they are.

The latest post where you knew no one was going to reveal having the spore, but correctly listed the possibility of the host killing SebC seems like you had this planned but didn't wait for everyone to post they didn't have the spore. From a towns perspective, my first thought each day is whether someone has received the spore you didn't even wait for everyone to check in. If we're in lynch or lose, of course I'm going to press the issue.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

So I am in your top 3, and the reason for being in your top 3 is because...?

You said I was steering, and in your opinion I have backed off quite a bit now. This points to me being a host?

What else do you have about me that makes you suspicious? It seems like you just threw my name out there because you have been on me all game and are worried if you back off now it will be a red flag. I called you out before because it seemed like you were trying to manufacture a reason to be suspicious of me, are you worried I will do it again?

Reasons you are still in the top three:

1) You were definitely steering the ship the early on - the fact that you are no longer doing it doesn't mean you didn't do it before.

2) The agenda still seems to be there, and it was there for sure early on. I don't like how you are critical of some and not others (I guess I don't like your reason that if you think they are town, then everything is okay)

3) You kept using arguments against my possible voting analysis as "all three scum would never do that" or "why would a townie do that". Not real arguments, but people seem to eat those up.

Reasons you've slipped:

1) Less steering - you have been much more helpful to the town in terms of conversation in the past few days

2) Good voting analysis - I like that you've gone over the votes day-over-day. Voting analysis is best in my opinion

I am fairly neutral on everyone else, so while I think you've become much more town lately, you were still too scummy early on to completely offset that in my mind. I also have a nagging feeling that you purposefully changed your game specifically to avoid the tells that I called you out on earlier in the game.

[Party Elephant]

GGG, I'm pretty busy at work today so gonna have to make this quick.

My top suspect right now is Oling. He has the single highest TVR so statistically speaking he's the best choice. Statistics aside though, the way he's twisting in the wind today seems like panic. The arguments with squiggs seem more forced than usual. At least one of them is scum, if not both (yes, I'm insinuating that their arguments might be very elaborate posturing, they're both experienced players) but I'm more sure about Oling. I believed him to be town yesterday when he was pushing for the agent reveal but now I feel like I misplaced my trust. This is why I voted for him earlier before we cleared votes off, or at least everyone except those two did.

After that there's a bunch that I'm less sure about. I think one of starseed or mrkajz is host. Starseed because other than when he was on the block, he's been just as quiet as Lego was, and mrkajz because he's had too many narrow escapes to be free of suspicion. I'm not sure about peanut or diss either. Peanut's whole not knowing how the game works play is hard for me to believe as over the month and a bit we've been playing I have a good grasp of it, and I think she should have done the same by now. Diss I lean town for but most of his actions and convictions have hurt the town.

I'm not very sure about anyone but oling so he's who I'm most comfortable voting for, but I'll go along with your choice.

[bizaro86]

I wanted to address GGG's request that we all defend ourselves, as I've gone through my logic for my top choices already.

I've been hunting scum since the start of the game, with detailed posts starting day 1, when I laid out a case for Active Stick, all the way through to today when I did a vote analysis of the new information we got from GGG's reveal. Everything I've done has been to that end.

From a "self-vote-analysis" point of view, I voted Active Stick on day 1, based on my analysis. It was the only true analysis posted that day, so he got momentum and was lynched. Obviously it wasn't correct, and I suppose it makes sense that the scum didn't want to stick their neck out day 1.

On day two, I really felt that girly was the right choice. She had acted odd on day 1, and had the spore. So we at least got the "day without a spore" benefit, and had as good a chance as guessing (which is really the other option on day 2) of getting host.

Day 3 was the HG/dissentowner throwdown day, I voted for Diss but changed to ECF after diss's death post, when the diss vote evaporated. I was following Seb/Pux's initial votes, as well as reacting to ECF's death post, which seemed fishy to me. I also thought he was more likely scum than HG15, who was the other leading choice when I voted.

All three days I voted for a townie after discussing it extensively and posting reasons/attacks. I've been bandied about as a decently strong player (including by yourself, GGG, in your reveal post). At the beginning of the game it's a very high probability that a townie gets lynched day 1, no way I would have stuck my neck out like that if I was scum, but I was trying to drive discussion, which I felt was lacking at that time.

Day 4 was the tie, I originally voted for party elephant (as he was and is my top suspect). I changed to mrkajz after the deadline, as he was my second choice with starseed my third choice. As mentioned, if I was scum trying to engineer a tie I wouldn't have posted at all, I would have pulled an oling and just been "not around."

Day 5 I voted party elephant, my top suspect then and now. I did commit to being around at deadline to make sure we didn't have another tie.

Day 6 I voted Timbo. Timbo basically went off the reservation on day 6, not sure if oling finally got to him or what. Timbo had a weird game, he sort of alternated between new and improved zen timbo and the Timbo-attack version we've come to know and love from past CP Mafia games. It seemed like the most likely cause for that was him being scum/turned. I'd consider voting oling based on how that went down, but I also think it's more likely oling's personality just got under Timbo's skin. That's the same reason I'm partially discounting the oling/squiggs thing. Oling is playing the same way he always does, and squiggs either can't see past it or doesn't want to. My impression is that squiggs has played this enough to see past it, so I'm more suspicious of him than oling.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Is anyone not okay with GGG picking and going with it?

I don't want this to be an exercise in futility if GGG comes and picks so-and-so, and we don't vote him out. If we're 6-5, all it takes is one townie to go against the grain here.

If we are 6-5 and we believe GGG and Puxlut are townies, they would a 5/9 chance of picking correctly just randomly out of the remaining names. Add in their suspicions and I'm down for anyone they want.

Squiggs96, would you vote Peanut if GGG chose her?

Bizaro86, would you vote Mrkazj44 if GGG chose him?

[Hockeyguy15]

I'm fine with GGG picking the target if he's fine with it and confident with his choice, I think he has a good read on the game. It's not like the vote splitting and deadline flip flopping has worked out that well, so time for a new approach.

[dissentowner]

I am on board with that as well

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

What if the reason they killed Seb was because they gave Puxlut the spore to remove her immunity? Then by killing Seb they get the spore back and remove her immunity to it. She has nothing to report because she was never asked to pass it because it was recalled?

That way if any of us get the spore and pass it to her we think we are safe when we really aren't. They then have an inside man if she is turned, and if she isn't she isn't any wiser about it.

I asked maz about a similar thing

At the start of the night the unturned with the spore is notified they have it

During the night the captain recalls it and sends it out.

So i dont think what you propose is possible

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

I asked maz about a similar thing

At the start of the night the unturned with the spore is notified they have it

During the night the captain recalls it and sends it out.

So i dont think what you propose is possible

So let's say I'm passed the spore and not turned, the next night I pass it to Puxlut but the captain recalls it and sends it somewhere else?

So if I say I passed it to Puxlut the next day, but it never gets there I look suspicious?

[Oling_Roachinen]

If a turned dies and GGG didn't kill him/her, then we would at least know they took back the spore.

[Oling_Roachinen]

It gets tricky if GGG targets the same Turned the captain kills, or GGG himself is the target and is turned.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

If a turned dies and GGG didn't kill him/her, then we would at least know they took back the spore.

That's true for after the reveal, but before I wouldn't be.

Anyways at least I feel better about Puxlut still being town now since she hasn't been told she has the spore.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

That's true for after the reveal, but before I wouldn't be.

Sorry, not following.

Say tonight you get spore and send it to Puxlut.

But before it goes to Puxlut, Captain kills Turned and gains the spore.

Tomorrow we wake up, you say that you sent spore to Puxlut. GGG says he didn't kill Turned, if we believe everyone we realize the Captain took the Spore. Puxlut may or may not have the spore, you don't look any more suspicious than a normal Spore Carrier, in fact it helps you because we know that the Turned were willing to steal the Spore from you at the cost of a Turned.

Now though, the other risk is they took it from you and sent it to GGG who turns and he says he killed Turned, when Puxlut doesn't get Spore you would look shady. That's a 1/4 chance at the cost of a Turned.

Or GGG says he kills Turned, because he did, but Captain also killed Turned. In that scenario, maybe we could use a rule clarification from Mazrim. Would GGG be notified that he killed Turned and because Turned is already Turned the Host couldn't get back the spore by killing Turned. Or would the Captain already have killed Turned when GGG investigates he's notified no one is there?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Sorry, not following.

Say tonight you get spore and send it to Puxlut.

But before it goes to Puxlut, Captain kills Turned and gains the spore.

Tomorrow we wake up, you say that you sent spore to Puxlut. GGG says he didn't kill Turned, if we believe everyone we realize the Captain took the Spore. Puxlut may or may not have the spore, you don't look any more suspicious than a normal Spore Carrier, in fact it helps you because we know that the Turned were willing to steal the Spore from you at the cost of a Turned.

Now though, the other risk is they took it from you and sent it to GGG who turns and he says he killed Turned, when Puxlut doesn't get Spore you would look shady. That's a 1/4 chance at the cost of a Turned.

Or GGG says he kills Turned, because he did, but Captain also killed Turned. In that scenario, maybe we could use a rule clarification from Mazrim. Would GGG be notified that he killed Turned and because Turned is already Turned the Host couldn't get back the spore by killing Turned. Or would the Captain already have killed Turned when GGG investigates he's notified no one is there?

The "I" in my post was supposed to say "it". So if GGG hadn't revealed then there would be no one to say the captain killed the turned.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Okay, a situation like that probably would have forced his hand.

[Hockeyguy15]

But before GGG's reveal doesn't really matter now, since that situation can't happen anymore.