2020/2021 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Seems like there is no good market for Johnny right now. We definitely shouldn't trade him to trade him.

If T-B-M was a better first line, then they would be attracting the better defensive matchups and Gaudreau would be getting the left overs by that virtue. They only saw greater success because they were the ones getting the easier defensive matchups.

Johnny has 2 years left until his first crack at UFA. If indications internally are such that he could walk (even if it is 50-50), now, or at the deadline, is the time to move him.

After all, we've seen first hand how well it works out moving a big names with next to no term left. This team can't be left holding it's lunch again with second tier prospects as the only tangible assets coming back for a guy like this.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

We are only a couple years removed from people saying that you could never win with an Ovechkin on your team.

Or you could never win with a Stamkos on your team.

Etc. etc. etc.

Trading a star player for underperforming in small sample sizes is so immensely silly. You build around star players, you don't trade them and try to replace them with lottery tickets and significantly worse players.

That's how you don't even get to the playoffs again for a decade. Just ask Edmonton.

Again though this just isn't about Johnny's performance.
It is about his pending contract situation and maximizing the value of the asset.
Now if the forward trade mark has cratered I fully agree he shouldn't be dealt now.
But I hope the organization has a plan for what's coming. You can't lose the asset for nothing or head into that final year with the risk of a constricted market via his modified trade clause.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Johnny has 2 years left until his first crack at UFA. If indications internally are such that he could walk (even if it is 50-50), now, or at the deadline, is the time to move him.

After all, we've seen first hand how well it works out moving a big names with next to no term left. This team can't be left holding it's lunch again with second tier prospects as the only tangible assets coming back for a guy like this.

Plus he has a NTC next year. It's modified but the condition is heavily in his favour.

[Roof-Daddy]

Ideally I'd like to see Backlund slotted as the 3C, but the guy finished last season with 28 points in 28 games. He's hit or miss, but when he's scoring he definitely puts up top 6 numbers, while being very strong defensively.

I mentioned earlier that Mangiapane had 17 points in his last 19 games after being put in the top 6 with Backlund and Tkachuk.

So while I'd like to see an upgrade on Backs as the 2C, that's not realistic at this point, so for now I am OK with:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm
Tkachuk - Backlund - Mangiapane

...as the top 6. I don't know if they can elevate their play in the playoffs, but they will be just fine in the regular season IMO, enough to get the team to the dance anyways. You can always upgrade this at the deadline too if the team is tracking to a playoff spot.

The bottom 6 is where it gets dicey as hell for me.

Lucic - Bennett - Dube should be an alright 3rd line if they play the way they did in the playoffs, but that remains to be seen, especially with Bennett who hasn't figured it out in the regular season yet. If he does, the 3rd line should be OK, especially if Dube takes a step. Ideally I'd like to see a right shot added here, and then slot Dube to LW and in turn push Lucic to the 4th line. This is where a guy like Leivo would come in handy IMO.

Then you'd have Lucic - Ryan - Youngster/PTO for the 4th line. The best young guy out of Gawdin, Phillips, Pelletier, Zavgorodny, Philp, Ruzicka, Zary, Pospisil, Tuulola or any PTO vet they bring in, maybe a Brett Ritchie for example.

I guess I'm kind of talking myself into being OK with the forwards for now as long as they can add one right shot top 9 option, see how the season goes and maybe look to add at the deadline.


I am however also OK with trading Hanifin for a sweet top 6 forward and then signing a vet left shot D to cushion and shelter Valimaki in the 4/5 slot. A Dman like Mueller, Kulikov, Del Zotto, Hutton or even Chara for example, if he'd come to Calgary.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Again though this just isn't about Johnny's performance.
It is about his pending contract situation and maximizing the value of the asset.
Now if the forward trade mark has cratered I fully agree he shouldn't be dealt now.
But I hope the organization has a plan for what's coming. You can't lose the asset for nothing or head into that final year with the risk of a constricted market via his modified trade clause.

I do not disagree. I am essentially talking about trading off the Flames best asset. A player who is 1 season from hitting 99 points, and trading him from a losing position.

You don't trade him just to get anything at all. It's poor asset management and sets a very bad precedent on the market for the team.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by New Era

No, its crazy talk when you throw out your list and suggest Backlund and Mangipane are right at home on that list. I mean, seriously, outside of two outliers, these are some of the best players in the game today.

Brayden Point
Artemi Panarin
Brian Rust (halo effect from playing with Sid and Malkin)
Elias Pettersson
Brendan Gallagher (outlier)
Evgeni Malkin
Nathan MacKinnon
Steven Stamkos
Jonathan Huberdeau
Patrice Bergeron

Yeah, I remember when the advanced stats said Ty Conklin was better than Martin Brodeur too.

Your reading comprehension, or perhaps your comprehension of statistics, or perhaps both, are severely lacking. I'll leave it at that.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Your reading comprehension, or perhaps your comprehension of statistics, or perhaps both, are severely lacking. I'll leave it at that.

Maybe your ability to explain WTF you're saying is the problem? I'll leave it at that.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Oh? Which ones? Seems like you enjoy being hyperbolic this because you don't want to put in the time to figure it out.

It was a rather infamous article by mudcrutch, aka Tyler Dellow, who would go on to be hired by the Oilers.
But it was pretty early in the advanced analytics era, and I don't know how much relevance it currently has as a counter to analytics.

[JTech780]

I am looking for cheap value contracts for guys who can possibly play in the top 9.

What's the deal with Jeremy Bracco? He's small but he has put up solid numbers in the AHL. Is he someone that could come in and play RW on the 3rd line for close to league minimum?

Josh Leivo is coming off a major injury, but sounds like he will be healthy enough to play next season. He could be a guy who is looking for a contract that can play on the 3rd line.

Brendan Perlini is a guy who has the size and skills to be a top 9 forward he just hasn't been consistent enough with his effort to earn a coaches trust. I wonder if Ward is a guy who can unlock something there.

Dominik Simon is a guy who can play all 3 forward positions, has good skill.

Conor Sheary might be a bit more expensive but if you can get him at close to league minimum, he would add some offense to the 3rd line.

Drake Caggiula can be a bit of a pest.

[Vinny01]

I could still see a trade with Boston happening involving Hanifin. I think this swap makes sense

To Bruins: Mangipane, Hanifin
To Flames: Debrusk, Carlo

Flames roster

Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm
Tkachuk-Backlund-Debrusk
Lucic-Bennett-Dube
Rinaldo-Ryan-Robinson
Gawdin

Giordano-Andersson
Valimaki-Carlo
Kylington-Tanev
Mackey

Markstrom
Rittich

[Harry Lime]

I think that the general thought is that the UFA forward market has crashed, because 90% of the cap league wide has been allocated. That doesn't mean that there has been a negative effect on the trade market, as long as dollar in and dollar out is something that is being addressed.

[SuperMatt18]

The better way to share what GranteedEV is coming across is by comparing line to line

So as a line last year Mangiapane - Backlund - Tkachuk put up the following numbers

CF%: 54.1%
xGF%: 54.5%
GF/60: 3.76
GA/60: 2.73
GF%: 57.9%

Which is comparable to some of the lines we know as the best in the NHL

Pasternak-Bergeron-Marchand

CF%: 58.6%
xGF%: 59.5%
GF/60: 4.06
GA/60: 2.17
GF%: 65.2%

Point-Kucherov - Stamkos/Palat

CF%: 55.7%
xGF%: 57.9%
GF/60: 4.26
GA/60: 2.05
GF%: 67.5%

Mackinnon-Landeskog -(Sometimes Rantanen)

CF%: 56.2%
xGF%: 60.4%
GF/60: 3.32
GA/60: 2.44
GF%: 57.6%

Granted the Backlund line isn't quite on these lines levels, and it's a smaller sample size at this point but they were pretty elite as a line when together. But under any circumstances a goal scoring rate of 3.76 goals per 60 as a line is quite impressive.

Just for fun here is the Hart Trophy Super Line from up North:

Draisaitl - McDavid

CF%: 46.9%
xGF%: 47.1%
GF/60: 3.7
GA/60: 3.9
GF%: 48.6%

That 3.9 goals against per 60...Barf.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by New Era

Maybe your ability to explain WTF you're saying is the problem? I'll leave it at that.

I do not see anyone else going on a diatribe against stats like "goals scoring rate when a line is on the ice together"

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

They might, but it’s also possible that they might have been figured out and are unable to adapt. Teams that can play the body on Gaudreau and keep him along the boards with no support, as Dallas did, effectively shut down Monahan for free as well.

I think this is highly unlikely. Gaudreau has scored at an 80-point pace through five seasons prior to last year, and Monahan's average production was 29 goals and 63 points. I think there is a much better chance of seeing the return of an 80-point Gaudreau and a 65-point Monahan in the regular season than there is of a repeat from last year.

There are some legitimate reasons to be concerned that the top line (and by extension, a huge chunk of the Flames’ offence) relies too much on a player whose physical shortcomings are easily exploitable. This pretty much just leaves Tkachuk as the only other offensive threat to worry about.

Yes, you are right about this, but I think this is a bigger concern in the playoffs than it is in the regular season. Ideally, the Flames would find a way to upgrade the top six, but I am also holding out hope that the players/coaches can make adjustments themselves to compensate for these problems. I think a better distribution of the puck between all three players on the first line, as opposed to funnelling everything through Gaudreau all the time would be a positive step in the right direction.

[Funkhouser]

I think it is premature to place Valimaki in the top 4 and Mackey in the top 6...but I don't care. Hanifin is one of our top movable assets, and if the opportunity presents itself, I would jump.

Hanifin & Ryan for Gallagher, Byron and a 1st

Gaudreau Monahan Gallagher
Tkachuk Backlund Lindholm
Mangiapane Bennett Dube
Lucic Gawdin Byron
Robinson

Gio Anderson
Valamaki Tanev
Mackey Kylington
Yelesin

Markstrom
(Rittich would need to get moved for cap purposes I think...so a cheap backup)

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

I think that Backlunds best days as a 2nd C are over, and that Mangiapane has yet to prove that he is an everyday top 6 winger in the NHL.

Improving the second lines scoring potential would help the first line find space. As it stands now teams can load up against the top line, knowing that no other line poses a real offensive threat.

This seems like a very odd claim on the heels of the incredibly strong second-half that Backlund had last year, followed by his most impressive playoff showing ever.

[GranteedEV]

About the only thing wrong with our 2nd line in the playoffs was that Tobias Reider found himself on it after the injury to Matthew Tkachuk. Even guys like Jankowski, Lucic, and Robinson would probably have been a better fit beside Backlund/Mangiapane. Ward should have worked harder to figure out lines. In game 6 though, the Backlund line had Lindholm on it, and they dominated in every area except for goaltending.

[flamesgod]

Originally Posted by Funkhouser

I think it is premature to place Valimaki in the top 4 and Mackey in the top 6...but I don't care. Hanifin is one of our top movable assets, and if the opportunity presents itself, I would jump.

Hanifin & Ryan for Gallagher, Byron and a 1st

Gaudreau Monahan Gallagher
Tkachuk Backlund Lindholm
Mangiapane Bennett Dube
Lucic Gawdin Byron
Robinson

Gio Anderson
Valamaki Tanev
Mackey Kylington
Yelesin

Markstrom
(Rittich would need to get moved for cap purposes I think...so a cheap backup)

I believe Burke said the Flames management see Valimaki as a top 3 D man right now. So I can definitely see Hanifin being shipped out for a forward.

[Erick Estrada]

While I'm sure Treliving tried to improve the forward group I am shocked that he's not made any moves to the top 6. I just don't think it's good enough to make any noise in the playoffs.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

I do not disagree. I am essentially talking about trading off the Flames best asset. A player who is 1 season from hitting 99 points, and trading him from a losing position.

You don't trade him just to get anything at all. It's poor asset management and sets a very bad precedent on the market for the team.

Fully agree, but we've run around this circle about 13265 times since August.

Let's move on to a different debate that hasn't been rehashed to death. Tree won't trade him just to trade him, thats probably not a concern in reality.