Who should replace Ryan Huska as Flames Head Coach?

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Those heat maps seem to have little correlation to winning. Look at the Columbus and Philly games as examples.

I think it’s because they measure location of the shot but not quality in terms of time and space.

It's becoming increasingly obvious that advanced stats, as they relate to Flames, are almost useless.

Some of our worst players when you watch the game, are darlings in advanced stats.

'High danger chances' are silly. Lobbing the puck into the goalie's crest from ten feet is not the same a short handed break away with tons of time and space. Maybe there needs to be a 'Really, really high danger chance' stat?

When guys like Coronato and Yegor have great games, you won't need to refer to the advanced stats to know. Matty's game against CHI with 11 shots including some dandies, for example. His advanced stats were just OK.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Yeah Huska's biggest issue remains his utilization of the forwards.

Huberdeau - Frost - Coronato: I've actually liked this line since it was put together. 3GF, 1GA, 63.9% xGF

Honzek - Kadri - Zary: Bit of a reimaging of Pospisil - Kadri - Zary line.

Sharangovich - Backlund - Coleman: Sharangovich has has success on this line, he's not suited for centering the 4th line.

Farabee - Kerins - Klapka: A more skilled and more talented 4th line that still has grit but can contribute offensively too.

In the end the lines can be whatever - but it's clear the team need to take Lomberg out. He's limiting the roster now and how it can be used, even if he's not the biggest problem in terms of performance.

Kids will generate their own energy when they get their swagger back, just like purple gatorade.

They don't need Lombo to bring the energy, as much as we love him. Or they can get it from other guys that play serious minutes.

For team tank, this team can score 2-3 goals a night and still will struggle to reach .500. If you open up the offence, we will surrender more. So no need to worry.

[SuperMatt18]

Generating quality is an issue for this team though and a big part of that is what the coach is asking them to do I think.

At 5v5 They rank:

Corsi For: 62.53/60 - 7th

Low Danger Corsi For: 38.79/60 - 5th
Medium Danger Corsi For: 14.98 /60 - 19th
High Danger Corsi For: 10.75 /60 - 20th

Shots For: 29.42 /60 - 4th

Low Danger Shots For: 14.47 /60 - 2nd
Medium Danger Shots For: 6.38/60 - 21st
High Danger Shots For: 6.84 /60- 22nd

xGF: 2.54/60 - 22nd

Was trying to figure out if there is a way to measure efficiency in translating total shot volume to actual chances and Flames don't perform well there at all.

Flames rank 29th in terms of High Danger Chance to Total Corsi ratio - 17.2% of their Corsi Attempts are High Danger. Only the Bruins, Oilers, and Kraken are lower this year.

They rank 31st in terms of xGF to Total Corsi ratio - 3.87% - with only the Kraken being lower.

So yeah this high volume of shots and just get traffic and bodies to the net strategy the coaches are asking for does not work for this team at all. And is leading to very inefficient offensive zone time.

And TBH I don't think you even need the stats to prove this one out - it's painfully obvious when you watch them play IMO. Lots of zone time, no real quality of chances. Cycle, back to the point, point shot. Maybe a rebound. Rinse. Repeat.

Edit: Going to put this in it's own thread I think actually.

[Heavy Jack]

Hahahahaha that the oilers have a lower High Danger Chance to Total Corsi ratio versus the Flames, that is friggen hilarious.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

Hahahahaha that the oilers have a lower High Danger Chance to Total Corsi ratio versus the Flames, that is friggen hilarious.

Oilers offense has been abysmal at 5v5.

Lower xGF/60, HDCF/60, etc etc than the Flames.

They are at about 2.8 xGF per 60 with either of the wonder twins on the ice right now...and 1.8 xGF/60 when they are both off the ice.

In the three seasons prior to this one they were closer to 4.0 xGF/60 with both on the ice, 3.5 with one of them on the ice, and 2.5xgf/60 with neither of them on the ice.

Their offense has really been an issue this season, but all the blame is on the goaltending.

[DeluxeMoustache]

The Flames play ugly hockey. There should really be no dispute

Looking at that link Gio provided, I don’t see a lot of good shots through a screen fromWeegar. I do see that the volume of shot attempts from over 50 feet out were something like 20-8 Flames

Huberdeau got 115 points with Florida who scored a lot off the rush, often utilizing the D who effectively jumped up as F4. There have been good video breakdowns of what happened with him. He tried making some creative plays like that when he got here and the Flames just don’t play that way

He is a good guy, does what the coaches ask, and has made the transition from an elite playmaker to a second tier power forward. And now people say the Flames don’t have skill players and need to play the way they do. Marvellous

This style of hockey is barely tolerable as a viewer when the team is winning, and in a race. But that is guys busting their asses to squeak in (or just miss by a tiebreaker). I am not sure that was the achievement / defiance of expectations they were going to buy in to, and build on. Very easy to look at it as they have it all they had and fell short.

The style of hockey is pretty much unwatchable when they are losing

If the Flames were so fortunate as to draft McKenna, I am really questioning if we want Huska anywhere near him for more than his first season

Kind of wondering if he is Brent Sutter 2.0

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

If you draft McKenna, definitely need to dump Huska next season before he smothers the player with his wet towel ways.

If we do get some honest to god elite talent this draft, then it will need to be able to breathe.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

'High danger chances' are silly. Lobbing the puck into the goalie's crest from ten feet is not the same a short handed break away with tons of time and space.

If you've got the puck ten feet from the goalie, that's a high-danger chance. If you lob it straight into the goalie's crest without even making him move, that's on you for not being able to shoot a puck.

A major purpose of tracking scoring chances in that way is to assess how good individual skaters are at converting those chances into shots and goals. You can't do that if you subtract out all the chances that are flubbed by the shooter.

You want the whole data set so you know that Gus Clusterpuck only gets a SOG on 30 percent of his ‘high-danger’ chances and a goal on 3 percent, whereas Deke McWizard gets a SOG 85 percent of the time and a goal 30 percent in the same situations.

[shutout]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

If you draft McKenna, definitely need to dump Huska next season before he smothers the player with his wet towel ways.

If we do get some honest to god elite talent this draft, then it will need to be able to breathe.

If you draft McKenna you send him back to college next year.
He is not ready for the NHL as an 18 year old.
Give him another year or two and then you bring him into the Flames.

You are good to keep Huska for at least another year if not two.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by shutout

If you draft McKenna you send him back to college next year.
He is not ready for the NHL as an 18 year old.
Give him another year or two and then you bring him into the Flames.

You are good to keep Huska for at least another year if not two.

That would work too. I think 2 years of NCAA would be just right for McKenna.

It would be a steep incline to go from Junior to College to NHL in the span of 3 years. He needs to physically develop and learn to dominate this level first.

That way we can also ensure a high pick next year with the skill dementor behind the bench.

[SuperMatt18]

1st overall picks don't go back to junior or NCAA.

If Ben Kindel can make it work in the NHL than so can Gavin McKenna.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

1st overall picks don't go back to junior or NCAA.

If Ben Kindel can make it work in the NHL than so can Gavin McKenna.

In this system? I have serious doubts. Very serious doubts.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

In this system? I have serious doubts. Very serious doubts.

Well thats more the point.

You're not keeping a 1st overall pick in the NCAA because you don't trust your coaches offensive system.

Gavin McKenna and his agent would not accept going back to the NCAA next year.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

1st overall picks don't go back to junior or NCAA.

If Ben Kindel can make it work in the NHL than so can Gavin McKenna.

While I fully expect McKenna to play in the NHL next year, you only have to go back to 2021 to see Owen Power returning to the University of Michigan for another year after being drafted 1st overall.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Ped

While I fully expect McKenna to play in the NHL next year, you only have to go back to 2021 to see Owen Power returning to the University of Michigan for another year after being drafted 1st overall.

2025: In the NHL Day 1
2024: In the NHL Day 1
2023: In the NHL Day 1
2022: In the NHL Day 1
2021: Not in the NHL Day 1 - Defenceman
2020: In the NHL Day 1
2019: In the NHL Day 1
2018: In the NHL Day 1
2017: In the NHL Day 1
2016: In the NHL Day 1
2015: In the NHL Day 1
2014: In the NHL Day 1
2013: In the NHL Day 1
2012: In the NHL Day 1
2011: In the NHL Day 1
2010: In the NHL Day 1
2009: In the NHL Day 1
2008: In the NHL Day 1
2007: In the NHL Day 1
2006: Not in the NHL Day 1 - Defenceman
2005: In the NHL Day 1

I mean, sure...twice in 21 years. Power is in the minority.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

I think it's different when they're in college. Its a reality good stepping stone league to the nhl that's against men. Makes more sense to return a top player there than to the chl.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

2025: In the NHL Day 1

I mean, sure...twice in 21 years. Power is in the minority.

Never said it happens all the time. But it does happen, rare as it is. And as I said, I don't expect McKenna to go back.

[Enoch Root]

I was going to say, defensemen often don't, but forwards pretty much always do. But then I saw ComixZone's post and he covered it thoroughly.

So I went further. Goalies and defensemen, more often than not, don't play in the NHL on day 1. However, you have to go all the way back to 1991 to find a forward drafted 1st that didn't immediately play in the NHL, when Eric Lindros didn't. And the only reason he didn't was because he was holding out, he absolutely would have if he weren't holding out.

You have to go back to 1989 and Mats Sundin to find an actual candidate. But sure, McKenna might be the 1st in 36 years.

Spoiler: he probably won't be