US Election Prediction Thread

[indes]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Can't believe I under-estimated the EC. I figured one of the swing states would go Harris (Wisconsin), but apathetic Democrats didn't vote. The rubecube effect (if you're not going to do everything I want I'm not going to vote!) hit us hard and will allow all of the damage those various voters were so concerned about to be accomplished anyway.

You didn't like Harris' position on Israel? Well Trump is about to let Bibi unleash hell. You didn't like the lackadaisical approach to women's reproductive rights by the Dems? Well Trump will now hammer through a national abortion ban. You didn't like the immigration system? Well Trump is about to open hunting season on asylum seekers. You weren't enthused by Harris? Well Trump is about to reshape government and the courts so any freedoms you thought minorities held (especially LGBTQ) are certain to be eliminated all together. But you stood on your principles and didn't vote! Yeah, you sure showed everyone... what a ####ing idiot you are and how badly you don't understand how the political process works.

This is the problem with spending too much time pandering to minorities. The obvious fact is that they're the minority, the less obvious fact is that a lot of people who are minorities don't look in the mirror and say "I'm a minority and I need the government's help". There's a reason "middle class" gets thrown around so much in politics, it's because everyone thinks they're middle class.

The liberals in Canada are more of the same. Just because a lot of people will get on the internet and claim to be outraged about how a fringe group of people are getting treated, doesn't mean they want their policies shaped by it. Focus on the minority, get the minority of the vote.

https://democrats.org/who-we-are/who-we-serve/

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

My prediction is Diddy somehow kills himself under suicide watch sometime in January. How do I place a bet on that action?

https://polymarket.com/markets/pop-culture?_q=Diddy

You can bet on if Biden will Pardon him.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Dems didn’t lose because progressives and minorities stayed home, they lost because they failed to connect with middle America and the working class, again.

But keep screaming at the minorities you hate but pretend to like when you think they’re useful to you and see where that gets you.

I don't see him screaming at minorities.

I think middle America and the working class like Trump's message. They like protectionist policies, hate the move to EVs, are scared of the immigrant bogeymen, are scared of the transgenders and anything that resembles DEI.

The unions are more or less in favor of those things as well.

Is there a message the Democrats can convey without selling their soul?

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

Clearly the demonizing and labeling everyone who disagrees with the Democrats as dumb, racist, fascist, misogynistic, etc. is a terrible strategy. Turns out when you call people names and try to minimize their views, they don't want to vote for you.

"Has it ever worked to reduce >50% of the electorate to hateful bigots?"

"No...




And I'll be labelled all those names just for mocking this strategy, despite hating Trump on record for many years on CP.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Dems didn’t lose because progressives and minorities stayed home, they lost because they failed to connect with middle America and the working class, again.

But keep screaming at the minorities you hate but pretend to like when you think they’re useful to you and see where that gets you.

This.

I'll say it again. Minorities know that they're minorities, they know that whites built America, that's why they want to come to America. Yes, they don't want to be discriminated against and want a fair opportunity but they don't want minorities running the place either just because they're not white. Again, this was a clear message against the overcorrection that's been happening.

It was about the economy and security. Latinos who are American are scared of Latinos who are undocumented moreso than anyone else.

[The Fonz]

Nvm

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I don't see him screaming at minorities.

I think middle America and the working class like Trump's message. They like protectionist policies, hate the move to EVs, are scared of the immigrant bogeymen, are scared of the transgenders and anything that resembles DEI.

The unions are more or less in favor of those things as well.

Is there a message the Democrats can convey without selling their soul?

That’s because he’s just saying the same thing you think, I’ve seen your little meltdowns about progressives, too.

If you think that’s all middle America and the working class is, then your type of thinking is pretty much indicative of why the Dems lost this time and will continue to struggle until that changes.

What’s the “soul” of the Democratic party? Because I see a party that scrambles trying to pay lip service to everyone from progressives to neocons.

What’s the “soul” they need to sell to appeal to people who are just trying to get by?

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

That’s because he’s just saying the same thing you think, I’ve seen your little meltdowns about progressives, too.

If you think that’s all middle America and the working class is, then your type of thinking is pretty much indicative of why the Dems lost this time and will continue to struggle until that changes.

What’s the “soul” of the Democratic party? Because I see a party that scrambles trying to pay lip service to everyone from progressives to neocons.

What’s the “soul” they need to sell to appeal to people who are just trying to get by?

You twist our words on that one. Neither of us have said that minorities are not going out to vote in their best self interest. We just have a belief that there are progressives without much skin in the game are ok sitting this out at the expense of these minorities. I don't know if is widespread, and doesn't seem to be a big factor in this election. There does seem to be some glee from progressives when non-progressive democrats lose.

I didn't say that was all that the middle class and working class is, but Trump's message won over the majority of them this election.

I don't know what a winning counter message would even look like. Trump's message was filled with false hope, lies, xenophobia and racism, and it was a winning message.

Pete's message that we should embrace the future of EVs and strive to catch up and pass China is both good for labor jobs, and the future of our planet should have been a good message. For whatever reason the opposite message is the winning message right now.

[KelVarnsen]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

We’re ####ed. That’s my prediction.

Nailed it

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I don't see him screaming at minorities.

I think middle America and the working class like Trump's message. They like protectionist policies, hate the move to EVs, are scared of the immigrant bogeymen, are scared of the transgenders and anything that resembles DEI.

The unions are more or less in favor of those things as well.

Is there a message the Democrats can convey without selling their soul?

Democrats economic policies are actually pretty popular. Most Americans want more public funding for health care, social security, and schools. They support government spending on infrastructure. They support higher taxes for the wealthy (though they have wildly differing notions of what ‘wealthy’ means).

On immigration, most Americans support immigration so long as it’s controlled. Democrats need to be able to present as strong on border security if they want to sustain support for immigration.

On DEI, most Americans support bias training and outreach to under-represented communities. However, they don’t support hirinq quotas, or race playing a role in college admissions.

Most Americans are tolerant of adults choosing their gender. It’s a different story when it comes to medical intervention in minors. And allowing transgendered women to perform in women’s sports or serve sentences in women’s prisons is extremely unpopular.

Climate change policies that impose costs on the end consumer are unpopular.

Decriminalization of hard drugs is unpopular.

Pro-choice remains a vote-winner for Democrats in most of the country.

So the question is would Democrats abandoning unpopular stances on those issues mean ‘selling their soul.’ And even if Democratic party strategists and elected leaders publicly reject unpopular stances, will they still be burdened with them, because in the eyes of many voters progressive activists = Democrats.

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by Acey

Legitimately asking... she was up only one point nationally, Trump has been up one point in GA and PA was dead even. All the predictions of Harris landslide just assumed the polling was massively off?

That was my take for sure. Figured the mid-terms were the bellwether.

They weren't.

I clearly overestimated the intelligence / lack of racism of the average American voter.

My bad.