[PGT] 12 straight opening night losses

[genetic_phreek]

As far as I'm concerned regardless of analytics or moral victories, all this stuff about to Flames playing like that they will win more than not....this is how I see it:

Good teams win even when they don't play their best,

Bad teams lose even when they play well.... sounds familiar?

[flames_fan_down_under]

I just worry about where the goals are going to come from for this team.

Monahan is very much an unknown at this stage. Obviously we know he has produced in the past. But now with multiple surgeries, not playing with JG, can he still pot 20+ goals?

Can Backlund get to 20 goals? I am not optimistic on this front, 16 in 70 two years ago, 9 in 54 last year.

The bulk of the offense will have to come from JG, Tkachuk and Lindholm. Two of the three (JG and Tkachuk) often leave me wanting more in terms of effort.

I just see a million unknowns up front.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by genetic_phreek

As far as I'm concerned regardless of analytics or moral victories, all this stuff about to Flames playing like that they will win more than not....this is how I see it:

Good teams win even when they don't play their best,

Bad teams lose even when they play well.... sounds familiar?

Maybe, too early though

No team wins every game, the best teams lose 30 give or take

[Strange Brew]

It's one game, albeit a rivalry game that sure would have been nice to win.

I honestly liked what I saw for the most part and wouldn't be surprised to see them go on a little streak right away.

[dino7c]

Edmonton isn't the Lightning or the Avs...they also aren't the doormats of years past. I guarantee they do this to a lot of teams who take too many penalties (deserved or not) or have a few bad breaks.

McDavid averages 2 points a game, last night was average plus an EN.

Starting on the road, hadn't played in 8 days, they had played...it was a tough matchup.

Now if the same things happen tomorrow night those excuses don't really excuse.

And don't take the Ducks lightly if you are the Flames...they just beat the Jets who I was told were cup contenders

[Sylvanfan]

The Flames will need Markstrom to be better than that if they want a sniff of the playoffs this year. That 4th goal was a real back breaker for a team that's going to have some trouble scoring goals.

Hopefully adding Coleman to the lineup will give it a bit more depth, and let the lines get in sync better. Early on I thought Dube and Mangiapane did look good with Monahan, but as things got mixed up partly due to 11 forwards as the game wore on that wore off and both Monahan and Dube tailed off. Mangiapane looked really good no matter who he played with. Not sure if they'll go with a Monahan/Mangiapane/Coleman second line next game, I wouldn't hate it if they went back to Dube and Mangiapane with Monahan and tried Backlund/Lucic/Coleman with some of the tougher matchups on Monday.

[dino7c]

Coleman needs to be and will be in the top six IMO...he was one of the Stanley Cup Champions best 5 on 5 players

[dino7c]

Coleman, Monahan, Mangi

will be an awesome line IMO

[djsFlames]

Over 82?

Gaudreau will be a 20 goal guy
Lindholm will be a 20 goal guy
Tkachuk will be a 20 goal guy
Mangiapane at his trajectory will be a 20 goal guy
Coleman playing deeper down a roster can score 20

Even without Monahan, there are goals to be found

The trick is having someone that can produce consistently night to night. That's what consistutes game breaking talent. Being able to rely on a goal from that guy or those guys to help swing the game in your favor. Depth is there to supplement from time to time but the top dogs have to put up many more nights than not.

Most of these core guys put up numbers but they're streaky in the way they get there. They pile up multi point games over a batch then go ice cold for a stretch after it. In order to win lots of games, you require consistency from those players. If we're relying on guys like Lucic and even Dube to keep us in games then we're in tough.

Production from the blue line will be down without Gio and Brodie's 40+ points apiece that we used to be able to bank on, so the forwards coming through for us is even more important now. Hanifin may put up 30, but aside from Andersson taking the step we all think he can, offense is pretty dried up back there. And that used to be a strength that helped compensate for our forward group.

[TheScorpion]

Even if all five of those guys score 20, that's only 100 goals. Do the Flames even have another hundred?

[djsFlames]

I think Tkachuk and Lindholm will be much closer to 30 as they have been. I think Chucky is a good bet to hit 30 given his contract year and determination to bounce back.

But yeah, after those five, Monahan and Backlund, I see a lot of guys contributing single digits to that team total.

No one on defence looks poised to hit 10+. Kylington or Andersson taking a step offensively becomes even more crucial.

Teams find ways to put up the totals they need though. Even Seattle has already gotten scoring from a team full of former depth producers.

[Tsawwassen]

Post game links
http://sportsstats.cbc.ca/hockey/nhl...cap139593.html
https://scores.nbcsports.com/nhl/rec...s=3&final=true

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Coleman, Monahan, Mangi

will be an awesome line IMO

Doubt that is what Sutter does.

I think he slides JG down to Monahan with Mangiapane

Coleman plays with Tkachuk and Lindholm.

[---Hatrick---]

Johnny and Mangi together makes a small line, but I am really curious to see how they would do together. When was the last time Johnny played with someone with the motor and wheels Mangi has?

[Ruttiger]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

I've been totally fine with Lucic on the Flames, but I think it's pretty clear he won't engage as needed against the Oilers. The hit against Monahan should have been an immediate fight for Kassian, but Lucic didn't even breath on him the entire game (that I saw). For those who wanted him to be the Captain, he won't play hard against our biggest rival, I think that disqualifies him.

Yeah Edmonton fans noticed the exact same thing when the Oilers played the Kings. It became a real sore spot and you're seeing the same pattern play out from your side now.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

The Flames will need Markstrom to be better than that if they want a sniff of the playoffs this year. That 4th goal was a real back breaker for a team that's going to have some trouble scoring goals.

Hopefully adding Coleman to the lineup will give it a bit more depth, and let the lines get in sync better. Early on I thought Dube and Mangiapane did look good with Monahan, but as things got mixed up partly due to 11 forwards as the game wore on that wore off and both Monahan and Dube tailed off. Mangiapane looked really good no matter who he played with. Not sure if they'll go with a Monahan/Mangiapane/Coleman second line next game, I wouldn't hate it if they went back to Dube and Mangiapane with Monahan and tried Backlund/Lucic/Coleman with some of the tougher matchups on Monday.

The Flames need to be able to score more than 2 goals on 50+ shots (against a very average defensive team) if they hope to sniff the playoffs. I'm so sick of our fanbase ultimately putting the onus on the goalies when making that save was meaningless in the grand scheme of things since, you know, the team can't score. Again.

Mangiapane, Dube, Coleman, Gaudreau and Lindholm are nice top 6 pieces that have certainly taken a positive step this year, but they most definitely need ride shotgun with at least one seriously gifted center in order to make this team a real threat capable of competing with decent playoff level teams.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Over 82?

Gaudreau will be a 20 goal guy
Lindholm will be a 20 goal guy
Tkachuk will be a 20 goal guy
Mangiapane at his trajectory will be a 20 goal guy
Coleman playing deeper down a roster can score 20

Even without Monahan, there are goals to be found

The trick is having someone that can produce consistently night to night. That's what consistutes game breaking talent. Being able to rely on a goal from that guy or those guys to help swing the game in your favor. Depth is there to supplement from time to time but the top dogs have to put up many more nights than not.

Most of these core guys put up numbers but they're streaky in the way they get there. They pile up multi point games over a batch then go ice cold for a stretch after it. In order to win lots of games, you require consistency from those players. If we're relying on guys like Lucic and even Dube to keep us in games then we're in tough.

Production from the blue line will be down without Gio and Brodie's 40+ points apiece that we used to be able to bank on, so the forwards coming through for us is even more important now. Hanifin may put up 30, but aside from Andersson taking the step we all think he can, offense is pretty dried up back there. And that used to be a strength that helped compensate for our forward group.

I'll go through the line up with rough estimates based on their previous years production and age.

Forwards:

Gaudreau - 23
Lindholm - 28
Tkachuk - 25
Monahan - 20
Mangiapane - 28
Dube - 13
Backlund - 16
Coleman - 20
Lewis - 5
Lucic - 10
Pitlick - 8
Ritchie - 4
Gawdin - 3

Defence:

Andersson - 6
Hanifin - 5
Zadorov - 4
Tanev - 2
Kylington - 2
Gudbranson - 1
Stone - 2
Valimaki - 3

That's 228 goals, that's about 2.78 a game. Which is basically right in line with how many goals the Flames scored last year 156 goals over 56 games (2.79 goals/game).

Obviously some guys might out perform those numbers, like Coleman, Dube and maybe Tkachuk. But there will no doubt be injuries along the way.

However I see a team that will average less than 3 goals a game and likely finish 16-18th in the league standings.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

I'll go through the line up with rough estimates based on their previous years production and age.

Forwards:

Gaudreau - 23
Lindholm - 28
Tkachuk - 25
Monahan - 20
Mangiapane - 28
Dube - 13
Backlund - 16
Coleman - 20
Lewis - 5
Lucic - 10
Pitlick - 8
Ritchie - 4
Gawdin - 3

Defence:

Andersson - 6
Hanifin - 5
Zadorov - 4
Tanev - 2
Kylington - 2
Gudbranson - 1
Stone - 2
Valimaki - 3

That's 228 goals, that's about 2.78 a game. Which is basically right in line with how many goals the Flames scored last year 156 goals over 56 games (2.79 goals/game).

Obviously some guys might out perform those numbers, like Coleman, Dube and maybe Tkachuk. But there will no doubt be injuries along the way.

However I see a team that will average less than 3 goals a game and likely finish 16-18th in the league standings.

Those look about right. I'd say a little less for Mangiapane and a little more for Dube.

It is going to be a huge year for the devourer of bread.

[dino7c]

gameday, home opener

time to let game one go

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

I think Chucky is a good bet to hit 30 given his contract year and determination to bounce back.

Correct me if I'm wrong but... he's in line to make $9m/year after this year, regardless of how he plays this year.

I'm strongly hoping that he has a more productive year this year than last, otherwise it's going to complicate things for this team moving forward.