Alberta Provincial By-Elections - Fall 2014 Editions

[octothorp]

One last take-away from Elbow last night: over a quarter of the margin between Dirks and Clark came from the five mobile seniors-centre polls (Dirks: 255, Clark: 39 in those five polls). No surprise that PCs did great there, but even the Liberals did better than the AP, with 60. Perhaps one of the biggest obstacles with the AP is going to be any sort of traction with the older generations.

[c.t.ner]

My take on the Alberta Party is that they went all in too soon. While I understand that the temptation was there to win a seat and it was a great opportunity, I feel like they needed a bit more time to build a stronger base across the province. I think we can all agree that having at least one seat can be a big boon for a party (See Wildrose in 2008 and The Green Party in 2011), but it's a major risk and if it doesn't work you end up stuck in the backwaters with nothing to show.

While the average voter won't care, the decision to rest their hat on Carter I think backfired a bit. I know that the average person doesn't really care who Carter is, but his tactics are great for the short term, but horrible in the long term. Things like painting Dirks, Prentice and the PC Party as homophobic without clear Huntsberger like evidence left a bit of a stain on the party. Playing up a mistake by a volunteer on voter information as a conspiracy to sway votes was another childish call.

While the Alberta Party can spin a second place finish into a win, it's going to be hard to deal with 87 other ridings where nobody really knows who they are.

[ben voyonsdonc]

If Chima was the Liberal candidate, on the other hand, he could hold the riding for the Libs.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Because Clark will run in Elbow again and Chima will take Buffalo.

Interesting, I thought that Chima was looking to jump on the federal Liberal bandwaggon? Given that the Alberta Party and Provincial Liberals don't really get along, I'm not sure that would help him in that respect.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I don't see the Alberta Party having any appeal at all in rural areas. At the moment they appear to be a strictly urban party. Of course you can still get a majority with only the urban vote, but I just don't think they will get much traction beyond the cities.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

Things like painting Dirks, Prentice and the PC Party as homophobic without clear Huntsberger like evidence left a bit of a stain on the party.

Well, at least in Dirks's case, he really painted himself as homophobic, both from his past words/actions and by being the only candidate to refuse to wear a rainbow sticker at a campaign event.

I don't see how anyone could legitimately call Prentice homophobic, though. He was one of a very small number of federal Conservatives to break ranks with Harper and support the Liberals' gay marriage bill back in 2005.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I don't see the Alberta Party having any appeal at all in rural areas. At the moment they appear to be a strictly urban party. Of course you can still get a majority with only the urban vote, but I just don't think they will get much traction beyond the cities.

Isn't that true for any progressive party?

[Ozy_Flame]

Alberta Party came second in Calgary-Elbow? That's shocking.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Isn't that true for any progressive party?

I'd give the Liberals and NDP a chance at least, even if a minor one. Alberta Party has no name brand recognition (even if the Liberal and NDP brands aren't well received, at least they're known).

[Minnie]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I don't think the WRP is stupid enough to bring Anders into the party and let him run in any riding. Putting him up for leadership would be the stupidest decision ever and would kill the party.

Bringing Anders in would Sarah Palin the WR so fast.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Well, at least in Dirks's case, he really painted himself as homophobic, both from his past words/actions and by being the only candidate to refuse to wear a rainbow sticker at a campaign event.

I don't see how anyone could legitimately call Prentice homophobic, though. He was one of a very small number of federal Conservatives to break ranks with Harper and support the Liberals' gay marriage bill back in 2005.

This I agree with. I don't think Dirk's will do anything to hamper the LBGQT community in Alberta, there's really no strong evidence of which from his time on the CBE. But he really could have easily squashed those questions with a few more small gestures.

I think the biggest thing is when there's no real "Lake of Fire" comment to build off, calling the election a discussion on equality for all when you're a new party would confuse some of the older and more casual voters. For most of them these by-elections weren't about equality or human rights (Most people have no idea of what Section 11.1 or Motion 503 is all about), to them it was about whether or not they think the PCs needed a lesson/statement. It's one thing to paint a new party with a questionable background as homophobic, it's hard to call the siting party with no real persecution of the LBGQT community as homophobic. While that plays well with younger progressive voters who aren't fond of the PCs, calling older people who have voted for the PCs for a good portion of their life homophobic to me is a dangerous call.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Danielle wants to stay on as leader but will submit to a leadership review at the WR AGM. Sounds like a referendum on their other leadership candidates, I can't imagine members are too thrilled with the WR performance as a whole since 2012. Blew the 2012 general election, got shut out in the by-election, and she still polls near 40% unfavourable. Now is as good a time as any to change, unless they don't have anyone better.

[Plett25]

Danielle Smith's talking points included the that the majority of votes were for "not PC"

Maybe that's just the spin, but I wonder if she actually realizes that a bigger majority voted "not Wildrose" and every one of those votes was for parties to the left of Wildrose on the political spectrum.

Then she comments that the 4 recent PC premiers have led to instability in government departments, and that is bad for governance. So... I guess she's in favour of a long-lived Prentice government?

[Resolute 14]

Of course she realizes that. As you say, it is just political spin, and it certainly isn't uncommon. i.e.: Dion, Layton and Duceppe tried to sell the so-called "62% majority" when they attempted their coup in 2008.

[Senator Clay Davis]

She also dropped the "We had to run in ridings that were PC strongholds" card, which

a) No ####, welcome to politics
b) How do you ever expect to be the governing party if you can't win in the opponents stronghold, or make any inroads in the major population centres (i.e. PC strongholds)?

[mariners_fever]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Danielle wants to stay on as leader but will submit to a leadership review at the WR AGM. Sounds like a referendum on their other leadership candidates, I can't imagine members are too thrilled with the WR performance as a whole since 2012. Blew the 2012 general election, got shut out in the by-election, and she still polls near 40% unfavourable. Now is as good a time as any to change, unless they don't have anyone better.

What other leadership candidates?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Per the early conversation about lawn signs, this is from Duane Bratt

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by mariners_fever

What other leadership candidates?

Exactly. If they have anyone better they'll be the next leader (though outside Rob Anderson and Heather Forsyth I couldn't even name you another of their MLAs). But I don't think Wildrose has any chance in the next election with Danielle as leader. She's already blown an easy election and got shut out of a by-election they tried hard to win a seat in. Not sure how happy WR supporters can be with that but if there's no one else, what can they do?

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Per the early conversation about lawn signs, this is from Duane Bratt

I'm sure there will be some better analysis, but overall it looks like a fair predictor of intentions - being in the general ball park. Obviously the biggest challenge is how does do you factor in "shy vote" and "over enthusiasm" factors to make it more accurate.

[Minnie]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Exactly. If they have anyone better they'll be the next leader (though outside Rob Anderson and Heather Forsyth I couldn't even name you another of their MLAs)

Bruce McCallister has some visibility because of his prior career (Global) but whether he has the werewithal for the job is another story. Every time he speaks, he just sounds like DS, and it's clear they need to move away from that vernacular.

ETA: Their current caucus is this:

• Rob Anderson – Airdrie-Chestermere (deputy leader)
• Joe Anglin – Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre
• Drew Barnes – Cypress-Medicine Hat
• Gary Bikman – Cardston-Taber-Warner
• Ian Donovan – Little Bow
• Heather Forsyth – Calgary-Fish Creek
• Rod Fox – Lacombe-Ponoka
• Jason Hale – Strathmore-Brooks
• Bruce McAllister – Chestermere-Rocky View
• Blake Pedersen – Medicine Hat
• Bruce Rowe – Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
• Shayne Saskiw – Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills
• Danielle Smith – Highwood (leader)
• Pat Stier – Livingstone-Macleod
• Rick Strankman – Drumheller-Stettler
• Kerry Towle – Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
• Jeff Wilson – Calgary-Shaw