CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[GGG]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think everyone needs to make a case for themselves of why they are town. What actions and voting patterns demonstrate that you are town.

Also if you all could do this before the end of the day tomorrow that would be great. I pretty much have to vote tomorrow based on holiday plans.

I accidently edited this thought I was quoting, bolded is the added section

[Oling_Roachinen]

Vote: Squiggs96

Nevermind, I'm sure Squiggs96 is host. I don't see any possibility he isn't. I'm hoping the other 5 or 6 town come with me on this.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think everyone needs to make a case for themselves of why they are town. What actions and voting patterns demonstrate that you are town.

Well for almost the whole game I have been actively hunting but lately it's been tough because I feel there is a lot of inactivity from people. I screwed up with leading the charge on Girly and should have let you deal with her. I have been trying to get Mrkajz lynched for days now unsuccessfully, I feel I have given some pretty good evidence a couple times but I feel like it was lost in the shuffle for the most part. I've been trying to find the hosts based on looking at all the lynches with the know town removed trying to find them that way.

Day 1 the activeStick vote we didn't have much to go on
Day 2 the Girly lynch I lead the charge
Day3-5 I voted Mrkajz, trying to lay out my case against him
Day 6 I voted peanut because I didn't feel like Timbo's actions were consistent with being a host

If you want clarification on anything let me know and I can dig up some examples of my posts.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think everyone needs to make a case for themselves of why they are town. What actions and voting patterns demonstrate that you are town.

-The main point my fan club (generally you and bizarro) has against me is that my play style changed over the course of the game and that I've been coached by host teammates. I've argued against this to the point of being blue in the face, figuratively speaking. Now that Timbo is confirmed town I'm going to point out that at least one confirmed townie called you out on that inference:

Originally Posted by Timbo

Well after over 1600+ posts to learn from I'm kinda sure he clued in as to how the game works don't you think?

We are now approaching 2300 posts so if you didn't believe it then, maybe you might be inclined to believe it now?

Bizarro also tried to claim that I've learned the game too quickly because I used the term "WIFOM". Of course once I quoted Seb using that term back on day 1 he's shut up about it. Here it is again in case you missed it:

Originally Posted by Puxlut

If PE were scum, would his scum buddies let him make a rash counter vote? Having not been a bad guy before, don't they usually talk it out first?

Originally Posted by SebC

If we assume that scum would not do scummy things, then everything becomes WIFOM. Noise.

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Ultimately everything everyone says could become WIFOM. Like the "vanilla" comment. I think sometimes you just have to go with your gut.

So there, that's the best evidence I have to counter the allegations of me being coached.
__________

Second of all, I think the voting record stats I've been posting in an objective manner are invaluable to the town as it provides unbiased facts about everyone's voting records. Sure, it's evidence that anyone could easily dig up on their own and even manipulate, starseed-style by putting themselves in as confirmed town, but the process for me has been very time consuming and because of that I think it's helpful for some of the lazier and/or less time committed townies to have everyone's stats laid out in front of them.

__________

Third and last is my voting record. My total TVR is 4/11 while my final TVR is 4/6. As everyone who has been lynched has been town, 7 out of 11 of us have an above 50% record of voting for confirmed townies (I'm talking final TVR here, noise votes lower everyones total TVR vs their final). Even if we assume that there are 2 turned right now that still means everyone with a high voting record can't be on the scum side. I've pointed out in my TVR analysis posts that there has been very little statistical deviation between players so the scum have, in my opinion, done a very good job of blending in with the town in terms of voting records. From this I've suggested that at least one host is disguising themselves in the low TVR group.

As for the specifics of my voting - I've moved my vote quite late twice, and both times I regretted it, the first time more so than the second. On the ECF vote I didn't like the way the votes moved off my then top suspect HG to mrkajz who wasn't really on my radar, so I followed along with Seb, the sort-of known townie at the time, and helped to make a case against ECF. I convinced myself that he was host, as did a number of others, and got burned.

I don't regret the devo vote as much because I changed my vote to avoid a tie. At least lynching devo provided us with some information as opposed to the disaster that was the day 4 no lynch. And I may have inadvertently helped with lynching the spore holder if we're to believe devo had it at the time.

I've been in favour of the agent reveal (so thank you for that) and even stated as such on day 6. I didn't like Timbo's opposition to it or his campaign agaisnt Oling, so I voted for him. At the time he wasn't my first choice for scum, but I did have him as potential scum in my list. Linked text because they're very long posts, but the info is all there. Timbo flipped town, but his day 6 actions were anti-town and I disagreed with him so that's how I voted.

I leave it to you GGG.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

What? Where did I say list.

Right here, after you created your list:

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Do your own,

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

My issue was that you considered one scenario that a person was turned last night that didn't include the counterpart...that he wasn't turned. You considered an option where a coin had to flip heads, but not that the coin flipped tails. It was another mistake.

I love what you consider a mistake. Once again, just because I didn't think of it, doesn't mean I should have, or that it was a mistake. We all have different ways of thinking. I was the only one who thought the Captain killed Seb. It turned out I was the only one who was right.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

If they do, I hope it's 7-4 and the spore doesn't turn anyone. That would mean tomorrow would be 6-4 and they still have a shot. I still believe that the far and away best bet is allowing Puxlut and GGG decide the vote. Afraid of giving townies the power? Why would you do ....oh yeah, I remember now.

I am in no way afraid of giving my fellow townies power. I'm afraid that you'll try manipulating whatever comes out. You've even done it already. You said you'd vote with them, and you've already voted for me. Your vote doesn't bother me, but the fact that you lied did. 7 minutes after you declare something, we find out it's a lie. You were giving similar concrete reasons on why everyone should vote for Timbo. You were completely sure, and then another dead townie turned up. The same dead townie who you said has been linked to me for quite a few weeks. Not surprisingly, you failed to comment on that.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I can understand why a host like Squiggs96 would be afraid of giving the power to a strong townie like GGG though.

You can understand perfectly that we are seeing through your schtick. I even enjoy how you are trying to flatter GGG by complimenting him. You've already abandoned your plan to give your vote to GGG and Pux. You seem to be posting quite a bit today for someone who has limited ability to write. I'm impressed by your commitment to the cause.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Right here, after you created your list:

Okay, that was more do it in your head or however you wanted. The point was there is a possibility of 6-5. If that's the case all the townies NEED to vote with GGG and Puxlut. Yet you tried to discourage that by saying it was a way so I wouldn't have to take blame. No, it's the only way town has a shot if it's 6-5.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Once again, just because I didn't think of it, doesn't mean I should have, or that it was a mistake.

Yes you should have, and yes it was. You come up with all these elaborate scenarios, have one scenario that ends with someone flipping heads, but don't consider the exact same scenario where someone flips tails. It's impossible to do that. I'm concerned that some of the stronger players have not commented on that as well. That's a mistake that hockeyguy15 should have picked up and went hard for in my opinion.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I am in no way afraid of giving my fellow townies power. I'm afraid that you'll try manipulating whatever comes out. You've even done it already. You said you'd vote with them, and you've already voted for me. Your vote doesn't bother me, but the fact that you lied did. 7 minutes after you declare something, we find out it's a lie.

I really feel you are host. I get the option to change my vote to whatever GGG and Puxlut do anyways.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

You can understand perfectly that we are seeing through your schtick. I even enjoy how you are trying to flatter GGG by complimenting him. You've already abandoned your plan to give your vote to GGG and Pux. You seem to be posting quite a bit today for someone who has limited ability to write. I'm impressed by your commitment to the cause.

I can change my vote, are you willing to vote for who GGG picks though? Waiting until he says who he is shows that you are concerned he is afraid of picking a host.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think everyone needs to make a case for themselves of why they are town. What actions and voting patterns demonstrate that you are town.

Also if you all could do this before the end of the day tomorrow that would be great. I pretty much have to vote tomorrow based on holiday plans.

I have been playing this game with the best interests of the town in mind. I have stood up for players I believed to be town (ECF and Timbo) and voted against who I thought to be a host or turned. My biggest mistake was pulling my vote off of mrkajz on Day 4, which helped lead to the no lynch. I believe if mrkajz was lynched that day, the town would be in a much better state right now.

I will defend my actions, myself and the town until this game is over. I have acknowledged when I was wrong, and proceeded when I thought I was right. I have come up with creative scenarios, some of which have been proven correct. I have continued to hunt hosts, and will continue to do that until the game is over. I listen to others and take their points of view into consideration when I'm thinking of ways to out the scum.

I was willing to talk about the spore, voting patterns, lists, posting styles, etc. Some people were wanting to shut down ideas right away. Some didn't want to talk about them. I always wanted to talk about different scenarios. I feel the more talking about the game the better. I encouraged others to become more active when I felt they weren't posting enough. I'm here for the town, and I'm looking forward to a town victory in this game. We need to lynch a host this Day 7. I feel I've led us to one, and have gotten enough clues on at least one other. I was right on my intuition last game, and I see enough that I believe I'm right again this time.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Yes you should have, and yes it was. You come up with all these elaborate scenarios, have one scenario that ends with someone flipping heads, but don't consider the exact same scenario where someone flips tails. It's impossible to do that. I'm concerned that some of the stronger players have not commented on that as well. That's a mistake that hockeyguy15 should have picked up and went hard for in my opinion.

Impossible? I proved it was possible. I'm not sorry I thought up a complex solution that was proven correct. Continue struggle with a tic tac toe game.

It's humorous you continue to harp on about something that I was proven right about. I look forward to you wasting your keystrokes on this. I'm not wrong.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I can change my vote, are you willing to vote for who GGG picks though? Waiting until he says who he is shows that you are concerned he is afraid of picking a host.

Why would I ever be concerned that GGG would be afraid of picking a host? He should be picking a host to lynch.

I'm willing to vote for you. That's why my vote has been there since the first post of this day. I wasn't waiting around for you to manipulate the town, nor am I hiding behind someone else. I am sticking myself out there and am leading the charge against you. I am not concerned or afraid. I've stated my case against you. I'm very confident I'll be proven correct. I'm zero concerned he picks a host. I'm hoping he does pick a host, and I hope you are the one he picks. If you are not the host he picks, and the town gets on board with him, that'll be good for me too, as we'll have one host gone, and only two (including you) to go.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Everyone in the town should agree now that they need to vote with GGG and Puxlut. Regardless of anything, regardless of who they pick. If your town, let's put our fate in the townies hands. Take back some control, throw the dice. I can understand why a host like Squiggs96 would be afraid of giving the power to a strong townie like GGG though.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Vote: Squiggs96

Nevermind, I'm sure Squiggs96 is host. I don't see any possibility he isn't. I'm hoping the other 5 or 6 town come with me on this.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I can change my vote

If anyone else gave the above scenario you'd harp on it for 15 pages of drivel. You'd call it a mistake, or logic fail, or something else. I think it's hilarious that you say one thing, and then immediately backpedal. Maybe your host buddies gave you crap in your scum thread. Whatever the reason, it shows your true colours.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Why are you assuming someone being sent the spore on night 4 would be turned?

Why couldn't it have been Hockeyguy15, Peanut, Party Elephant etc. about to come on and tell us who they sent the spore to?....Looks like you know something we don't.

Hockeyguy15, can I get your opinion on this. On Day 6 we find out that SebC was killed. Squiggs96 comes up with 4 possibilities of what could have happened here:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=2065

As he has pointed out, one of the four possibilities ended up being right. He is not wrong with what he posted. Except he never left the possibility that we were about to have someone reveal they had the spore. He posted before Dissentowner, Party Elephant and Peanut had posted for the day. (In my post I also said you, but you actually opened the day in posting which I missed). The names aren't really important, the fact is Squiggs96 KNEW there wasn't going to be a spore reveal so he never considered the possibility.

How did Squiggs96 know that Dissentowner, Peanut and Party Elephant were not going to reveal that one of them had the spore? If he's town, he should have left open the possibility that the spore was simply going to be revealed, correct? Yet he didn't list this as an option because he knew it wasn't possible.

He knew no one was going to be revealing the spore (because someone was turned), and forgot that the three of them had yet to check in. He got trigger happy with his post. It would have made perfect sense, and included the right option like Squiggs96 likes to point out, except he didn't wait for everyone to post.

[bizaro86]

Thanks for the reveal GGG, that adds new information we didn't have before. The most interesting piece is that since you didn't kill Seb, the scum did. To me, that means it's pretty likely that devo had the spore when he died. Why would the scum kill a 100% turned to get back the spore when they have nearly a 50% chance of getting a turned if a townie sends it somewhere. However, if they get a whole extra day with the spore that makes more sense.

So, it's reasonable at this point to assume we've lynched two spore carriers, girly and devo. Ironically that is probably what is keeping us afloat right now since we haven't lynched host or turned the whole game. I'm going to go through those votes.

Girlysports Vote
Hasn't Voted (1): SebC

Voted:
GirlySports (9): East Coast Flame, dissentowner, Timbo, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, devo22, Lego Man, squiggs96, Peanut
Timbo (3): GGG, mrkajz44, Oling_Roachinen
Hockeyguy15 (2): Puxlut, Party Elephant
East Coast Flame (1): GirlySports

This day especially you would think scum would want to lynch a townie that didn't have the spore. There were 3 of them and no real evidence, so they should have been able to push the vote. Even though they didn't succeed, I bet they tried. That leaves the following who didn't vote Girly:
GGG, mrkajz44, Oling_Roachinen, Puxlut, Party Elephant, GirlySports, SebC

Taking out Pux and GGG for role claims (and realistically if either of them is host we've lost anyway), Seb who is dead, and girly who flipped town leaves:

mrkajz44, Oling_Roachinen, Puxlut, Party Elephant

Devo Vote

Hasn't voted (1): devo22

devo22 (6): Oling_Roachinen, starseed, Puxlut, GGG, Party Elephant, mrkajz44
mrkajz44 (3): Hockeyguy15, dissentowner, Timbo
Party Elephant (2): squiggs96, bizaro86
squiggs96 (1): SebC
Oling_Roachinen (1): Peanut

Scum probably would have wanted Devo to stay alive to keep the spore. The only other possibility is that my previous link idea was right and both mrkajz and party elephant are host, so the other two main vote-getter were both host, so they were willing to sacrifice the spore carrier. In that case I think its likely that either oling or starseed is also host.

If either one of party/mrkajz are town, the mafia probably would have preferred either of them to lynching the spore carrier, which indirectly cost them a turned to get it back.

The group of people who tried to save/didn't vote devo is:
Hockeyguy15, dissentowner, Timbo, squiggs96, bizaro86, SebC, Peanut, Devo22

Excluding townie flipped Timbo, dead SebC and Devo himself leaves:

Hockeyguy15, dissentowner, squiggs96, bizaro86, Peanut.


Interestingly, SebC is the only person who is on both lists.

GGG and starseed were the only people not on either list, they (or in starseed's case him/his predecessor) voted to lynch the spore carrier both times.

If we assume I'm wrong about the party/mrkajz thing (which isn't my first choice, but for the sake of intellectual honesty) then I think at least two of HG/Diss/squiggs/Peanut are host. Probably the host was trying to play off townie votes, and would have wanted to spread their votes out. I voted for party because he's my top suspect as I've said repeatedly. After I voted for party on that day, squiggs comes out with this:

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Since there doesn't seem to be much action, I feel like injecting some fun. Mafia should be a fun game, and right now we are all kind of just waiting for tomorrow's deadline. That's not fun. No one is close to hammering, so let's see what happens if the vote starts going another direction. If nothing else, it will hopefully help the game pick up. I'll be watching the Giants game on TV tonight, but will be around to discuss and to play.

unvote
vote Party Elephant

Seems like a solid reason for a vote to me. Almost like he was trying to get a vote in without having to defend it, and hoping to see momentum build. If he's scum, he was probably hoping for a repeat of the Active Stick lynch, where he threw out a vote and then I and others picked up the batton with actual reasons and ended up lynching a townie.

tldr; My top choices right now are party elephant or squiggs.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think everyone needs to make a case for themselves of why they are town. What actions and voting patterns demonstrate that you are town.

Also if you all could do this before the end of the day tomorrow that would be great. I pretty much have to vote tomorrow based on holiday plans.

I was planning to do this tonight, but I spent way too long on my post above, I'm going to bed, I will provide an accounting for my actions tomorrow. I hope I can make my case sufficiently, as I'd hate my lack of persuasiveness to be the reason we lost.

[squiggs96]

This Day has been going on for 4 real time days. Pux has two posts. Diss has two posts. Peanut has one post. We need some more contributions from you three.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Seems like a solid reason for a vote to me. Almost like he was trying to get a vote in without having to defend it, and hoping to see momentum build. If he's scum, he was probably hoping for a repeat of the Active Stick lynch, where he threw out a vote and then I and others picked up the batton with actual reasons and ended up lynching a townie.

tldr; My top choices right now are party elephant or squiggs.

You could have also read the multiple posts I've had on why I tried scattering the vote. I even asked if it was better for the town, and you said it was. I don't mind being questioned, but at least read what I've posted on the subject instead of trying to make it look like I haven't talked about it before. That's a scum move.

I don't think it's a coincidence that the person I think is the 3rd host had narrowed his top two choices down to the two people who voted for Oling on Day 7. We both had the same theory that Oling never passed the spore to Girly, although when PE posted it in #2511, I don't think he knew that I've posted that many times throughout the game. PE has removed his vote from Oling at GGG's insistence.

[dissentowner]

After doing some catch up reading I agree that mrkajz44 looks like a prime target as a host. That is where I think we should vote.

[dissentowner]

I am also fine with voting with GGG and Puxlut if they can come to an agreement on our next target.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Yes you should have, and yes it was. You come up with all these elaborate scenarios, have one scenario that ends with someone flipping heads, but don't consider the exact same scenario where someone flips tails. It's impossible to do that. I'm concerned that some of the stronger players have not commented on that as well. That's a mistake that hockeyguy15 should have picked up and went hard for in my opinion.

Oling this is like round 3 of you two going at it, and honestly most of it is just turning into white noise. Reading through you and squiggs fighting over and over again is getting tough to wade through. If you want to use that as a reason to be suspicious of me then have at it.

I'm not sure why you specifically felt the need to throw my name out, it seems like kind of a scum thing do to. In the middle of an argument with someone else you go out of your way to point your suspicion at me.

[GGG]

Also could you post your top 3 suspects in order that would be great to. When defending yourselves as town if you can include vote analysis on your self like Party did that would be helpful too.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Hockeyguy15, can I get your opinion on this. On Day 6 we find out that SebC was killed. Squiggs96 comes up with 4 possibilities of what could have happened here:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=2065

As he has pointed out, one of the four possibilities ended up being right. He is not wrong with what he posted. Except he never left the possibility that we were about to have someone reveal they had the spore. He posted before Dissentowner, Party Elephant and Peanut had posted for the day. (In my post I also said you, but you actually opened the day in posting which I missed). The names aren't really important, the fact is Squiggs96 KNEW there wasn't going to be a spore reveal so he never considered the possibility.

How did Squiggs96 know that Dissentowner, Peanut and Party Elephant were not going to reveal that one of them had the spore? If he's town, he should have left open the possibility that the spore was simply going to be revealed, correct? Yet he didn't list this as an option because he knew it wasn't possible.

He knew no one was going to be revealing the spore (because someone was turned), and forgot that the three of them had yet to check in. He got trigger happy with his post. It would have made perfect sense, and included the right option like Squiggs96 likes to point out, except he didn't wait for everyone to post.

Here is my issue.

A couple people (biggest being mrkajz) were on me for being 'selective' of who I challenged when mistakes were made, but no one has said a word about it to you.

Lego Man and his XXX makes him suspicious to you
You say Diss' rule mistake makes you believe he is town
Squiggs doesn't mention Seb, he does mention that someone could not be turned and you are going full throttle on him.

I know that this game is about playing hunches, and hammering away on the details when you think something is fishy. You aren't going to think every person is suspicious all the time, and your opinion on them can change which is why you aren't going to hammer every detail or mistake from everyone.

My point is I find it super suspicious that I am the only one being called out for being selective.

Now, ignoring all that yes I think it's weird that squiggs didn't think to mention that the spore holder could have not turned. I also still think it's weird that he called the fact that the captain killed Seb to get the spore back, because I can honestly say that it never crossed my mind. But if we are in a lynch or lose scenario I am not confident with my read on either squiggs or you at the moment, so I would be more comfortable lynching someone else and revisiting you/squiggs when we have more info to go on.

I feel like you both have a history together and sometimes you both let that history influence your thoughts on each other. You've spend days going in circles, and it is sometimes hard to wade through all the posts.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Voted:

activeStick (8): squiggs96, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, Timbo, devo22, Oling_Roachinen, GGG, East Coast Flame
GirlySports (5): Lego Man, Party Elephant, activeStick, mrkajz44, SebC
Party Elephant (1): GirlySports
East Coast Flame (1): Peanut
Hockeyguy15 (1): dissentowner
Lego Man (1): Puxlut


This first vote is interesting.

activeStick and Girly were town, so at no point were any scum in danger of being lynched. Then in you look at the "throw away" votes you have Girly and Puxlut who are both town, leaving Peanut and Diss as the only 2 people not jumping on the leaders.

I'm a little surprised that the hosts didn't take this opportunity to put a couple votes on each other so down the road they could use it to build some town credibility. Peanut voting for ECF doesn't fit that this since ECF was town, and knowing my alignment Diss didn't vote for a host either.

So on the first vote all 3 hosts voted for town, and at best only either Girly or Puxlut having a shot at voting for scum.

With the green being town this really looks to me like the hosts split their vote, possibly all 3 hosts voted for someone different. From my point of view none of them took the opportunity for vote for each other.