Craig's List 2014 Prospects

[Komskies]

The Islanders are basically the only team that can finish higher than us now of the current bottom 4 teams, and I don't see Calgary catching the Carolina/Winnipeg/Nashville cluster of teams, so there is a very good chance that we'll be drafting either 4th or 5th overall. I'd be happy with any of Reinhart, Bennett, or Draisaitl although it'll probably be just Bennett or Draisaitl left by our pick.

[djsFlames]

Very good chance Florida drop below Edmonton in the final 2 weeks. Only a point ahead and tanking hard right now.

But if Edmonton does stay in the bottom 2, I have to ask what people would hate more, the Oilers ending up with Ekblad or Reinhart?

(hope they get neither, but just hypothetically..)

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Very good chance Florida drop below Edmonton in the final 2 weeks. Only a point ahead and tanking hard right now.

But if Edmonton does stay in the bottom 2, I have to ask what people would hate more, the Oilers ending up with Ekblad or Reinhart?

(hope they get neither, but just hypothetically..)

Oilers will get a good player. No way around that. However it's debateable whether that player will be able to aid in changing their culture as their issues are deeper than just talent. There's entitlement issues, poor work ethic, lack of leadership, etc.

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Very good chance Florida drop below Edmonton in the final 2 weeks. Only a point ahead and tanking hard right now.

But if Edmonton does stay in the bottom 2, I have to ask what people would hate more, the Oilers ending up with Ekblad or Reinhart?

(hope they get neither, but just hypothetically..)

I'd be pretty miffed either way but I'd be slightly more upset if they got Ekblad. If they get Reinhart, he'll probably manage to win some games himself, enough to give them less of a chance at the McDavid/Eichel sweepstakes next year.

If they get Ekblad and McDavid, I will slap a #####

[nik-]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Very good chance Florida drop below Edmonton in the final 2 weeks. Only a point ahead and tanking hard right now.

But if Edmonton does stay in the bottom 2, I have to ask what people would hate more, the Oilers ending up with Ekblad or Reinhart?

(hope they get neither, but just hypothetically..)

I'd prefer Edmonton end up with Ekblad. I'm sure it will be easier for them to ruin him than Reinhart. They love the hype and they won't be able to resist tossing that star D prospect in over his head. Reinhart they can at least slightly shelter because they still think Nugent Hopkins is a number 1 center.

[saXon]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

I'd be pretty miffed either way but I'd be slightly more upset if they got Ekblad. If they get Reinhart, he'll probably manage to win some games himself, enough to give them less of a chance at the McDavid/Eichel sweepstakes next year.

If they get Ekblad and McDavid, I will slap a #####

At this point, any top 5 player the Oilers get is a pissoff. They don't deserve squat and shouldn't be allowed top 5 for the next 3 years.

3 first overall, one 7th overall, and another chance at 1st overall? Potentially 2nd overall?

There aren't enough 4 letter words to describe them or that situation.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Komskies

The Islanders are basically the only team that can finish higher than us now of the current bottom 4 teams, and I don't see Calgary catching the Carolina/Winnipeg/Nashville cluster of teams, so there is a very good chance that we'll be drafting either 4th or 5th overall. I'd be happy with any of Reinhart, Bennett, or Draisaitl although it'll probably be just Bennett or Draisaitl left by our pick.

However there is a still a chance we finish with the 5th pick and a team behind us wins the lottery bumping us down to #6.

#5 most likely
#4 somewhat likely
#6 can happen if we get unlucky
#1 small chance

Gawd I just thought about EDM winning the lottery, that'd be puke worthy.

[Komskies]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

However there is a still a chance we finish with the 5th pick and a team behind us wins the lottery bumping us down to #6.

#5 most likely
#4 somewhat likely
#6 can happen if we get unlucky
#1 small chance

True. Thankfully we have better odds of finishing 5th and drafting 1st overall than finishing 5th and drafting 6th overall.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by saXon

At this point, any top 5 player the Oilers get is a pissoff. They don't deserve squat and shouldn't be allowed top 5 for the next 3 years.

3 first overall, one 7th overall, and another chance at 1st overall? Potentially 2nd overall?

There aren't enough 4 letter words to describe them or that situation.

They shouldn't get another top 5 pick until they make the playoffs. So never.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Komskies

True. Thankfully we have better odds of finishing 5th and drafting 1st overall than finishing 5th and drafting 6th overall.

Not quite:

30th place: 25.0%
29th place: 18.8%
28th place: 14.2%
27th place: 10.7%
26th place: 8.1%
25th place: 6.2%
24th place: 4.7%
23th place: 3.6%
22th place: 2.7%
21th place: 2.1%
20th place: 1.5%
19th place: 1.1%
18th place: 0.8%
17th place: 0.5%

If the Flames stay in 26th (and we ignore the Devils' spot in the lottery): there's a 68.7% chance someone in 27-30 wins the lottery and Flames pick doesn't move; there's an 8.1% chance the Flames win the lottery and pick first; and there's a 23.2% chance someone in 17-25 wins the lottery and the Flames move down.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Komskies

True. Thankfully we have better odds of finishing 5th and drafting 1st overall than finishing 5th and drafting 6th overall.

Actually I don't think that's true. Assuming I found the right odds:

Finishing 5th last we'd have a 8.1% of moving up to #1
Finishing 5th last there's a combined chance of 23.2% that a team behind us wins the lottery and bumps us down to #6

Finishing 4th last we'd have a 10.7% chance of moving up to #1
Finishing 4th last there's a combined chance of 31.3% that a team behind us wins the lottery and bumps us down to #5

EDIT: Not sure how NJ affects things so my calculations don't exclude them.

I'm sureLoss will post the percentage numbers again after tonight's games since they will affect things quite a bit.

[Komskies]

Thanks for clearing that up. I assumed without looking that the odds dropped off much more drastically that that after the top 3 picks.

[sureLoss]

Former Stars AGM does a mock draft (pay article)

http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/story...-first-overall

his top 7:

1. Buffalo: Reinhart
2. Edmonton: Ekblad
3. Florida: Bennett
4. Islanders: Dal Colle
5. Flames: Fleury
6. Hurricanes: Kapanen
7. Jets: Nylander

Had Draisaitl going 9th, Ritchie going 11th, Perlini 15th


edit: Virtanen 8th

[Gaskal]

Wtf? It's like that guy had a brain aneurysm after 4th overall

[neo45]

I think Fleury is a distinct possibility and wouldn't be that upset. The guy seems like a top 4 D and the Rebels usually produce good defenseman

[ForeverFlameFan]

That mock draft could possibly be going by needs too, not in regards to the BPA.

[The Fonz]

We need to trade up to get into that top 3.

[saXon]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

We need to trade up to get into that top 3.

The League needs to kick the Oilers out of the top 5.

[sureLoss]

His justification for the Flames taking Fleury was that Burke likes to build his teams from the blue line out.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

EDIT: Not sure how NJ affects things so my calculations don't exclude them.

Someone said somewhere that NJ still has a lottery percentage but if they win then the order doesn't change. Don't know if that is true or not.