Major Water Main Break in Bowness Area

[Locke]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I guess I have a hard time understanding why we hadn't moved on to the "urgent replacement" plan after the first time the line failed. How was there an entire year of slack in that schedule?

If I had to guess, and I am guessing, I'd say 'because it failed.'

So...a couple things, first of all any replacement is inevitably going to come with a period of water restrictions, something the populace is already fatigued with, so you gotta give them some time.

Secondly, as with almost any repair, it feels like you bought time. A repair incurs expense but it also generates the feeling that it is now possible to kick the can down the road a bit because the problem has been patched up. Its no longer ultimately urgent because the repair should hold...at least for a bit.

Whether that is true or not.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I guess I have a hard time understanding why we hadn't moved on to the "urgent replacement" plan after the first time the line failed. How was there an entire year of slack in that schedule?

That was my first thought, but then I remembered they'd planned to start this spring. There is probably a load of prep work to be done, and I suspect a lot of that was already mostly ready, so moving actual construction up was one change, but they couldn't have done that a year ago.


What has changed is the timeline, and I suspect funding increased to match urgency. Perhaps this was always part of the plan. If no more leaks occur, a slower two year lower cost replacement was the first choice. But if a leak occurred, they'd increase budgets and get it done sooner.


Tough to fault any decisions on this without really knowing some of the details.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Locke

If I had to guess, and I am guessing, I'd say 'because it failed.'

So...a couple things, first of all any replacement is inevitably going to come with a period of water restrictions, something the populace is already fatigued with, so you gotta give them some time.

Secondly, as with almost any repair, it feels like you bought time. A repair incurs expense but it also generates the feeling that it is now possible to kick the can down the road a bit because the problem has been patched up. Its no longer ultimately urgent because the repair should hold...at least for a bit.

Whether that is true or not.

Not true. This new line is being buried at 30m and construction will not interfere with the existing one. So as long as no more breaks occur, we shouldn't have restrictions. Think of it as an additional line, not a replacement(in the short term).

[Titan2]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I guess I have a hard time understanding why we hadn't moved on to the "urgent replacement" plan after the first time the line failed. How was there an entire year of slack in that schedule?

Ah, new to government projects, I see? Why spend today what I can claim I saved in the next election?

Good on Council and/or Farkas for moving this up. This is the type of decision we expect from our leaders so it is nice to see for a change. Between this and Carney's speech, I may have a glint of hope left.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Titan2

Ah, new to government projects, I see? Why spend today what I can claim I saved in the next election?

Good on Council and/or Farkas for moving this up. This is the type of decision we expect from our leaders so it is nice to see for a change. Between this and Carney's speech, I may have a glint of hope left.

Which will make watching that slight ember of optimism being brutally snuffed out so much more satisfying...

[Titan2]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Not true. This new line is being buried at 30m and construction will not interfere with the existing one. So as long as no more breaks occur, we shouldn't have restrictions. Think of it as an additional line, not a replacement(in the short term).

Buried 30 metres?

Wow. That seems really deep. What would be the maintenance plan for something like that? The pit would look like the oil sands to get to a leak at that depth.

Alternatively, at that depth, maybe a 'breach' can't happen due to the weight of the earth around it? Who cares if some water leaks into the surrounding soil?

It might be time for a deep dive into YouTube on how water pipes are made and installed.

[Titan2]

Originally Posted by Locke

Which will make watching that slight ember of optimism being brutally snuffed out so much more satisfying...

Like a cat and mouse. Break a couple of legs and then let it struggle around, thinking I am still alive, maybe I can get away...then the cat smacks it again.

The universe is a giant cat.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Titan2

Buried 30 metres?

Wow. That seems really deep. What would be the maintenance plan for something like that? The pit would look like the oil sands to get to a leak at that depth.

Alternatively, at that depth, maybe a 'breach' can't happen due to the weight of the earth around it? Who cares if some water leaks into the surrounding soil?

It might be time for a deep dive into YouTube on how water pipes are made and installed.

They are using tunnel boring machines, and the point is you don't dig it up. Let's be realistic. "A leak will occur at some point in the future. That point in the future is mostly likely far enough away that none of us will care" is what they probably said in the 70's too. And they were right! So lets just go with that.

[Titan2]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

They are using tunnel boring machines, and the point is you don't dig it up. Let's be realistic. "A leak will occur at some point in the future. That point in the future is mostly likely far enough away that none of us will care" is what they probably said in the 70's too. And they were right! So lets just go with that.

As long as they have a plan I guess...

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Titan2

As long as they have a plan I guess...

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face...

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Titan2

As long as they have a plan I guess...

That's why they are the experts and we are just common sense internet commenters.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Titan2

What would be the maintenance plan for something like that? The pit would look like the oil sands to get to a leak at that depth.

For all the mains in the older neighbourhoods they've been epoxying/sleeving them from the inside - no digging. Pretty cool, but the whole area smells like Testors model glue while they're doing it.

[Shazam]

Somebody put a bet on Polymarket for next the major water break on that line.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I guess I have a hard time understanding why we hadn't moved on to the "urgent replacement" plan after the first time the line failed. How was there an entire year of slack in that schedule?

There's a real answer here in technical terms.

I don't intend to say I'm an expert at this, but I definitely work on similar stuff in my career. I also only have public information.

During the first break, I remember reading tons of media coverage about wire breaks and how they were using acoustic tools to find areas where wires were breaking. This was because when they got to the rupture site, it was obvious that the wires were broken previously. They used this as a "fingerprint" to find other weak spots and moved them up for repair.

Once you fix all those spots, the theory is that you've bought yourself a few years to go truly fix the problem. You've mitigated the immediate risk.

This break, while having obviously similar catastrophic results, came at a spot where it did not appear that there were any wires that were already broken. The failure was just the concrete failing around the wires, rather than the wires failing causing the concrete to fail.

I haven't seen any media coverage or public release as to whether they've found any other factors about this site that they could use to determine similarly susceptible spots yet, so my conclusion from their actions is that they're quite unclear on what they could do, and really the only options at this point are:
1) shut the entire system down until the line is replaced
2) hope for the best (perhaps with some mitigations like a flow and pressure reduction) and expedite the replacement

Basically, after the first break, the thought was that you could buy time by fixing the "hot spots" - but now it's clear that the hot spots was not the only indication of failure, which is why the timelines changed so drastically.