2016 NHL Draft

[bax]

Matthews
Laine
Puljujarvi
Dubois
Nylander
Tkachuk
Chychrun

Is the order of preference for me I think. I haven't been following this group of prospects as closely as I usually do though

[Par]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

That's going too far, but there's an odd vibe about him, like he's not as good as people thought he would be, and that makes me feel like he might actually be rated lower by many teams than he is in rankings where he's often seen as the sexiest defenseman available. Conroy too was saying that he needs to figure out how to put his tools in order. Depends on how teams feel about that.

I think Olli Juolevi and Mikhail Sergachev have better ceilings and are more sure fire safe bets than Chychrun.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Looks like TSN will carry FIN-RUS coming up at 11 am.

Players of interest for the Flames pick include #9 for FIN, Jesse Puljujarvi (if we win the 3rd lottery), and #2 for RUS, Mikhail Sergachev.

Do you think there's any team out there that might have a d-man ranked higher than Puljujarvi? Not asking which team, but whether it's a foregone conclusion that Puljujarvi goes 3rd.

[Par]

Originally Posted by bax

Matthews
Laine
Puljujarvi
Dubois
Nylander
Tkachuk
Chychrun

Is the order of preference for me I think. I haven't been following this group of prospects as closely as I usually do though

This is also how I have it, if the Flames are able to get into the top 3 that would be huge or even grab one of the Fins.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Par

Chychryn reminds me of Cam Barker, never able to get all his stuff in order.

Eh. Barker didn't have anywhere near the skating Chychrun does. Barker had nice crossovers which apparently wowed some people into thinking his skating was a strength but he just had nowhere near the acceleration and top speed that Chychrun possesses. Chychrun just has some fantastic physical tools. I'm a touch wary of his decision making but lets play a hypothetical here. Imagine Chychrun had Phaneuf level hockey sense at the NHL (worst case scenario IMO) but with Brodie like skating. He'd still probably be a top pairing guy despite the brainfarts. A solid #3 at worst because his skating could get him out of so much trouble. I doubt Chychrun's hockey sense at the next level will be as bad as Phaneuf's. And if his decision making levels out and he becomes most of what scouts expect what is he then? A stronger, more physical Bouwmeester with a better shot? That would be pretty appealing. Maybe my comparables aren't the best but Chychrun has all the tools you'd want in a franchise d-man. And his skating is such an asset, we've seen with Brodie and previously Lydman how much elite skating can add to a defenseman's overall game.

None of these top prospects really worry me. The player I'm most wary of is Nylander because of his slight frame and non-physical style but I'm sure he'll turn out fine in the end with his high end skills. I think the bust potential of the top 9 or so this draft is similar to the bust potential of the top 9 or so in the 2013 draft which is to say very low (Drouin and Nurse have the least played games but both will be above average NHLers IMO.)

[bax]

Originally Posted by Par

This is also how I have it, if the Flames are able to get into the top 3 that would be huge or even grab one of the Fins.

I've said it before in this thread, but I really do have a feeling that the hockey gods finally reward Calgary and we walk away with Laine

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

Do you think there's any team out there that might have a d-man ranked higher than Puljujarvi? Not asking which team, but whether it's a foregone conclusion that Puljujarvi goes 3rd.

It's possible but unlikely IMO. Bob Mackenzie's list had rare consensus at the midterm with every single scout he talked to having Matthews/Laine/Puljujarvi as the top 3. Not a single other player was voted for the top 3. Meanwhile there were 5 players that all got considerations for 4th so consensus diverges quickly after that top 3. We've also seen comments from Benning indicating they'd like a d-man if they aren't drafting top 3, which again indicates those top 3 forwards are considered by most if not at all to be a tier above the d-men this draft.

It's hard to completely rule out possibilities around the draft. Chychrun does seem to be thought of as a potential franchise defensemen by some. And I do think that even if a team has Puljujarvi ahead of all the d-men if they have a dire need for defensemen perhaps there are offers they would consider to move down a spot or two.

But yeah, safe bet is to assume the vast majority of teams have the top 3 forwards in a separate tier above all the d-men.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Par

Tkachuk for some reason worries/scares me.

And what is that reason exactly? You couldn't be more vague so far. I've never found the "for some reason I'm worried about player x" argument particularly compelling. I think he's one of the safest picks at the top end with his work ethic, style of play, solid size, and high skill level. There's literally zero reason to think his game won't translate easily to the NHL. He plays the style of game that coach's love.

[Par]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

And what is that reason exactly? You couldn't be more vague so far. I've never found the "for some reason I'm worried about player x" argument particularly compelling. I think he's one of the safest picks at the top end with his work ethic, style of play, solid size, and high skill level. There's literally zero reason to think his game won't translate easily to the NHL. He plays the style of game that coach's love.

One of my biggest worries about him is, well his in your face, bang em up style work in the NHL, there is also the potential for injuries with him and from what I have read is that most his points(assists) are all secondary scoring. I am not professional scout or anything like that, this is just a feeling, Tkachuk might become the best player from draft, for all I know.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I know I would be worried about Tkachuk translating to the NHL... except he has the soft hands, the IQ, the grit and determination, and a host of other factors.

Laine
Mathews

Puljujarvi

Dubois

Tkachuk



Chychrun/Juolevi/Sergachev

Nylander


Nylander's inconsistent offence at times makes me more worried about a potential bust there - but I doubt he will. The only potential bust would be Chychrun based on some too-regularly occurring errors (poor 'toolbox'?), but that may also be from being over-played too much.

I think this is a fairly safe top 7 or 8. There may be some disappointments, but I wouldn't be the least bit worried about Tkachuk. I think he will translate rather nicely to the NHL. He is fairly good at everything, and has that drive and finishing ability.

[greentree]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

My ranking/wish list based off what I have read would be
Matthews
Laine
Puljujarvi
Dubois
Nylander
Tkachuk
Chychurn
McLeod

This is my latest pick list, too, at least down to Chychrun. After that, I'm thinking maybe Jost, based on his U18 play this month.

[Strange Brew]

Interesting trade in the NFL yesterday. Eagles traded up to #2, giving up pick #8, a 3rd and a 4th this year, next years 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder in 2018. They also get back a 4th round pick.

Seeing as how the Flames could easily end up picking around 8th, would you make that trade to move up to #2? It is giving up next year's first rounder that really smarts, but I think I would probably do it. I haven't seen many of the prospects play and tend to rely on other's analysis, but it appears to be chance to nab an elite level talent.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Button video on Nylander

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/nhl-draf...ander%7E851881

Button video on Tkachuk

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/nhl-draf...e-son%7E853275

Tkachuk's comparable is Scott Hartnell... that's pretty much what I peg him as production wise, a ~45-55 point 3rd wheel on a line. Not exactly what I want out of such a high pick.

The concerns about Nylander's skating are kind of worrysome. To be a finesse player without the best skating... sounds pretty much like Jiri Hudler. And I love Jiri Hudler, but I was kind of hoping for a more dynamic all-around player, especially since it sounds like Nylander will need a few years in the minors to get up to NHL speed never mind add the veteran experience in Hudler's book. However the skill and IQ are a bit encouraging. Starting to think he's a better option than Tkachuk.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Tkachuk's comparable is Scott Hartnell... that's pretty much what I peg him as production wise, a ~45-55 point 3rd wheel on a line. Not exactly what I want out of such a high pick.

Stylistic comparison, you can't equate their numbers. And even if you could Hartnell has scored 30, 37 and 28 goals at the NHL level too, with three 60 point seasons. I'd happily take a 30g, 30a power forward out of this draft if we're drafting outside the top 3, who wouldn't? A 30g, 30a power forward is a more useful player a finesse forward who scores slightly more.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

The concerns about Nylander's skating are kind of worrysome. To be a finesse player without the best skating... sounds pretty much like Jiri Hudler. And I love Jiri Hudler, but I was kind of hoping for a more dynamic all-around player, especially since it sounds like Nylander will need a few years in the minors to get up to NHL speed. However the skill and IQ are a bit encouraging. Starting to think he's a better option than Tkachuk.

What concerns about his skating?

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016...-for-2016.html

"He works extremely hard to get back on the backcheck, and it’s helped out greatly by his skating." - Dominic Tiano

"A strong skater, Nylander possesses above average speed and strong change of pace/direction abilities that when combined with his high end puck skills and hockey sense allow him to be extremely shifty and elusive. Most impressive about Nylander's skating is his separation speed. Nylander often catches unsuspecting defenders flat footed when he turns on his second gear, beating the opposition to high percentage scoring areas." - Mike Mackley

"An elusive skater with elite hockey smarts. He is a strong puckhandler and has fantastic vision which makes for great playmaking skills. His agility and fancy footwork allows himself to get out of trouble." - Kathryn Jean

I don't believe skating is a weakness for Nylander. What are you basing that on?

[dammage79]

My imagination ran wild last night where the Flames landed Puljujarvi and traded for Nichushkin. Making the top 6 RW's spots rock solid. Top 9 Rw's of Puljujarvi, Nichushkin and Frolik? That great.

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by dammage79

My imagination ran wild last night where the Flames landed Puljujarvi and traded for Nichushkin. Making the top 6 RW's spots rock solid. Top 9 Rw's of Puljujarvi, Nichushkin and Frolik? That great.

Imagine if Pribyl works out and slots in as the 3L RW moving Frolik to the left of that line. Dare to dream.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Interesting trade in the NFL yesterday. Eagles traded up to #2, giving up pick #8, a 3rd and a 4th this year, next years 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder in 2018. They also get back a 4th round pick.

Seeing as how the Flames could easily end up picking around 8th, would you make that trade to move up to #2? It is giving up next year's first rounder that really smarts, but I think I would probably do it. I haven't seen many of the prospects play and tend to rely on other's analysis, but it appears to be chance to nab an elite level talent.

I think I would do this. I'd hope that next year's pick is in the 15-30 range, but that's the gamble for sure.

Laine and Matthews are on a different level than anyone 3-8 from what I've read and seen.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Good effort by the mostly U17 Russians losing 3-4 to Finland. Puljujarvi had a nice goal and looked especially dangerous on the power play again, showing great vision and playmaking. Such a nice package of size, skating and skill. Sergachev was solid. Very mobile, very good agility but not quite the top end speed of Chychrun. Didn't see his patented slapper but he was engaged in his own zone and moved the puck effectively. Wasn't overaggressive pinching in. Perhaps under-utilized by the coach overall.

CAN-SUI up in a little over an hour from now.

[Vulcan]

Eeli Tolvanen scored a hat trick for Finland to take over the goal scoring lead. The problem is he isn't eligible for the draft until next year and he is kind of small.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Stylistic comparison, you can't equate their numbers. And even if you could Hartnell has scored 30, 37 and 28 goals at the NHL level too, with three 60 point seasons. I'd happily take a 30g, 30a power forward out of this draft if we're drafting outside the top 3, who wouldn't? A 30g, 30a power forward is a more useful player a finesse forward who scores slightly more.

I don't see a Hartnell player in Tkachuk. He's going to have a little bit of fiestiness in his game but I don't see a rough and tumble player in him. I don't see a power forward either. When I watch him I see a little bit of Brian Propp in him, maybe even a little Brian Sutter, but not a power forward like Cam Neeley or Jarome Iginla. If there is a power forward in the making on the Knights I think it's Max Jones. He's shown that power move off the wall more than anyone I've seen this year, and he has a propensity to try and run guys over on his way to the net. Tkachuk is more of a skilled player with an ability to muck it up in the dirty areas.

What concerns about his skating?

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016...-for-2016.html

"He works extremely hard to get back on the backcheck, and it’s helped out greatly by his skating." - Dominic Tiano

"A strong skater, Nylander possesses above average speed and strong change of pace/direction abilities that when combined with his high end puck skills and hockey sense allow him to be extremely shifty and elusive. Most impressive about Nylander's skating is his separation speed. Nylander often catches unsuspecting defenders flat footed when he turns on his second gear, beating the opposition to high percentage scoring areas." - Mike Mackley

"An elusive skater with elite hockey smarts. He is a strong puckhandler and has fantastic vision which makes for great playmaking skills. His agility and fancy footwork allows himself to get out of trouble." - Kathryn Jean

I don't believe skating is a weakness for Nylander. What are you basing that on?

I think the problem here is you're reading thes quotes from scouts and think they apply to his skill at the NHL level. These comments are about his performance against his peer group, which is fine. I think a lot of people are talking about how his game is going to translate and how he's going to do in the NHL against the best players. Nylander is a very skilled guy, but he tends to blend into the woodwork against the best players in his peer group. That isn't a negative and saying he is not a very skilled player, just an observation on his playing style and ability. His skating skill is above average at the junior level, but will it be good enough at the pro level? See Griffin Reinhart for an example of the skill not translating.

Personally I think Nylander's skills are more than enough to make up for any issue his skating presents. My issue is where he will fit in the lineup and the needs of a team. I see him as a 2nd line winger, and probably more likely to succeed in the east than the west. Like it or not, we have to consider style of play and what players have the best chance of success in that context. I'm back and forth on Nylander and Tkachuk, and who would be a better fit for the Flames. I prefer Nylander's skill set, but I think Tkachuk would survive better in our conference. I hope we don't have to decide between the two and we go for a different player, but if we have to take one of them I would probably lean toward Tkachuk at the moment.