Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Johnny199r

I'd much rather have a smaller place closer to the core than a bigger house with a long commute.

Let me guess....no kids?

[Red]

Originally Posted by Slava

Let me guess....no kids?

Most likely. Funny how quickly people move to the burbs and get minivans when life happens

Enjoy the downtown scene while you can guys.

[nik-]

Life happens in different ways for different people.

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Pimco sees Can. Realestate drop 20% in next five years.


http://business.financialpost.com/20...as-much-as-20/

Is there much value in "Canada-wide" analysis when the situation/markets are so diverse and unique (i.e. Calgary versus Vancouver versus Toronto versus ?). Serious question.

[Red]

Originally Posted by nik-

Life happens in different ways for different people.

Yes, but the end result is that there are hardly any kids in inner city. People tend to crave space when there are 5 of them under one roof. Hard to blame them.

[Travis Munroe]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Is there much value in "Canada-wide" analysis when the situation/markets are so diverse and unique (i.e. Calgary versus Vancouver versus Toronto versus ?). Serious question.

Originally Posted by Yoho

Pimco sees Can. Realestate drop 20% in next five years.


http://business.financialpost.com/20...as-much-as-20/

I have read a few articles regarding PIMCO cutting some of their holds. They all seem to range from 10-30%

As tvp said, Canada is so often bunched into 1 category of real estate values when it is so different in each province. Where do they hold most of their real estate? Vancouver & Toronto I would assume as those have been mega hubs and if so, I think it is fair for them to cut some of their holdings. Im surprised it took this long.
On the other hand, how long have we been hearing about a correction and how we are just behind the US and havent seen the worst of it. Surely 1 day prices are going to correct themselves and all these people will come out and say "told ya so" but that's like me predicting the flames winning the stanley cup. One day it will happen and I can make myself sound genius!

[Red]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Is there much value in "Canada-wide" analysis when the situation/markets are so diverse and unique (i.e. Calgary versus Vancouver versus Toronto versus ?). Serious question.

Probably not. What puzzles me is why they keep throwing numbers, 20%, 10% etc. No none can tell. RE is emotional, once it pops there is no end in sight and it usually overshoots. So not sure how they measure how low it will go.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Is there much value in "Canada-wide" analysis when the situation/markets are so diverse and unique (i.e. Calgary versus Vancouver versus Toronto versus ?). Serious question.

"But, it's diffrent here"

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/09/20/wasted-2/

[Travis Munroe]

But it is different.
And that doesnt mean we can escape a correction however the amount of people moving to Calgary is sky high and leading the country. Is it to get a piece of over valued real estate? I think not!

[Johnny199r]

Originally Posted by Red

Most likely. Funny how quickly people move to the burbs and get minivans when life happens

Enjoy the downtown scene while you can guys.

1400sf townhouse vs 2300sq detached home? I'm good with option #1. I'll use the extra money me and my spouse save on taking lrt to work and not having a 2nd car to travel.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Johnny199r

1400sf townhouse vs 2300sq detached home? I'm good with option #1. I'll use the extra money me and my spouse save on taking lrt to work and not having a 2nd car to travel.

Missing the point. There is a lot more to life than money. Especially when you have kids.

Not saying that burbs are better or anything, just pointing out that families move there because it makes more sense for them. They can't all be wrong.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Johnny199r

1400sf townhouse vs 2300sq detached home? I'm good with option #1. I'll use the extra money me and my spouse save on taking lrt to work and not having a 2nd car to travel.

Right, and that's cool. I just think that there are some things that I'm willing to accept now that say a decade ago I wasn't. When I wanted the freedom, a town house condo was awesome. No maintenance, nothing to worry about when I wanted a quick getaway, you know the drill!

My kids are school aged now, and for them that's prime time for them to be outside playing in the yard, and as a result I am willing to give up that freedom and proximity to the nightlife and such to have the space.

It's also important to me to have schools in the neighbourhood, as well as other amenities that say ten years ago I couldn't care less about. Would I prefer to have a 5 minute commute? Of course. But at some stages in life I think you have to prioritize.

[Johnny199r]

Originally Posted by Slava

Right, and that's cool. I just think that there are some things that I'm willing to accept now that say a decade ago I wasn't. When I wanted the freedom, a town house condo was awesome. No maintenance, nothing to worry about when I wanted a quick getaway, you know the drill!

My kids are school aged now, and for them that's prime time for them to be outside playing in the yard, and as a result I am willing to give up that freedom and proximity to the nightlife and such to have the space.

It's also important to me to have schools in the neighbourhood, as well as other amenities that say ten years ago I couldn't care less about. Would I prefer to have a 5 minute commute? Of course. But at some stages in life I think you have to prioritize.

If there's a park down the street and a school not too far away I think it's a win win. I have no interest in nightlife.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Johnny199r

If there's a park down the street and a school not too far away I think it's a win win. I have no interest in nightlife.

But you have no kids, right?

[Johnny199r]

Originally Posted by Slava

But you have no kids, right?

Yes, but when I do, those are big factors. Lots of kids get raised in the core in other cities. I was raised in the suburbs and didn't care for it.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Johnny199r

If there's a park down the street and a school not too far away I think it's a win win. I have no interest in nightlife.

A park down the street doesn't substitute for a fenced back yard of your own. It's a lot complicated than that unfortunately. Just like room for bikes, snowboards, ramps, sleds and various other things you accumulate as a parent.

A cul-de-sac safety, you can actually let your kids out by themselves. Can't do that in the core. Plenty of things that non parents take for granted.

And as Slava already mentioned, schools are a huge deal. And they are not exactly building those in the core. In fact, they keep closing them.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Johnny199r

Yes, but when I do, those are big factors. Lots of kids get raised in the core in other cities. I was raised in the suburbs and didn't care for it.

When you have kids, your wife will twist your arm until you buy her a McMansion in Cranston. Book it

[Table 5]

We have a kid and bought in the inner city. We wanted (needed?) the extra space, yard, garage...and got it. The compromise is that all of that stuff is smaller. It's a fair trade-off I think.

In terms of the bust talk, one of the reasons we bought in the inner-city is that if that correction comes, it's not going to be hit as hard as somewhere out in the boonies...and when things come back, it will likely also be one of the first to bounce back.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Red

When you have kids, your wife will twist your arm until you buy her a McMansion in Cranston. Book it

Not every wife has such poor taste.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Not every wife has such poor taste.

Always nice to chat with inner city folks. They never fail to tell you how ugly the burbs are and how smart of an investment they made.