Coalition Deal To Topple Minority Tory Govt- [Update Parliament Prorogued until Jan]

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by ok, ok,....I get it

Both American's and Christian's are dangerous......

So are apostrophes.



(I kid, I kid... or do I? )

[ok, ok,....I get it]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

So are apostrophes.



(I kid, I kid... or do I? )

I'm n't sur' I underst'nd you're pn't

[Resolute 14]

Don't joke. I know a kid who lost an eye to a falling apostrophe.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Don't joke. I know a kid who lost an eye to a falling apostrophe.

No kidding. I once tripped over an apostrophe while chasing down a predicate in Mexico. Ended up having to get an ampersand surgically removed from my forehead.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

No kidding. I once tripped over an apostrophe while chasing down a predicate in Mexico. Ended up having to get an ampersand surgically removed from my forehead.

If you closely you can see the results of that in the "show us your mug" thread!

[transplant99]

Not to completely re-open this debate, but I saw this polling in today's Herald and thought it would be interesting to look back and see what so many thought the Libs/Cons numbers would be like after the raucos debate of 8 months ago.

Doesn't look like the Liberals will be trying to topple the Conservatives any time soon if these are anywhere near accurate.

The Conservatives now command 39 per cent in support among decided voters, compared with 28 per cent for the Liberals, according to the survey, conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National by Ipsos Reid. Since the last Ipsos poll two months ago, the Tories have climbed five percentage points, while the Grits have slumped seven points.

gionally, the Conservatives now lead the Liberals in vote-rich Ontario by 43 per cent to 31 per cent. The Tories have also seen their fortunes improve in Quebec, where they had previously been in free fall. The Bloc Quebecois lead with 35 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 29 per cent and the Conservatives with 20 per cent.
In Atlantic Canada, the Grits lead the Tories by 34 per cent to 32 per cent. The Conservatives are ahead in the Prairies with 57 per cent, followed by the NDP with 25 per cent. The Tories continue to dominate Alberta at 64 per cent, followed far behind by the Grits at 21 per cent. In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead the Liberals, 38 per cent to 27 per cent.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Ha...538/story.html

[starseed]

Jack and Gilles are hinting at supporting a Liberal government if the conservatives win another minority.

Ignatieff is saying there will not be an election, but rumours are coming out from some liberals that there will be... or maybe they are just preparing just in case.

[Resolute 14]

They aren't just hinting, they are already getting their pictures taken for their campaign signs.

Then Ipsos-Reid came along and spoiled the party.

[mykalberta]

I wouldnt take that poll with 100% accuracy, wait till CPAC releases a poll to see what the numbers are. In the last 3 elections the CPAC polls have been within +/-2% of what the numbers actually are.

Most likely they have a much better sample to choose from is my thinking. We should have a topic devoted to Canadian politics so news like this can go in that rather than resurrecting this old thread.

[Pastiche]

Not a heck of a lot to read out of this poll or really any of the polls in the past 4 months.

The key is to look not at individual polls but at trends. There's no convincing trend line for either party.

Plus if you look at historical polling, the Government party always sees a bump in the summer recess. They just have much more access to media and the public during this time. This latest number represents historical summer bumps pretty accurately.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Not to completely re-open this debate, but I saw this polling in today's Herald and thought it would be interesting to look back and see what so many thought the Libs/Cons numbers would be like after the raucos debate of 8 months ago.

Doesn't look like the Liberals will be trying to topple the Conservatives any time soon if these are anywhere near accurate.




http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Ha...538/story.html

Those numbers are surprising, I thought that they were a lot closer to a little in the liberal favor especially in Ontario and Quebec. Ignatieff has done a great job of fund raising, but I think he's failed in getting his message out, and he's stuck himself with the EI reform stuff which hasn't generated the momentum that he thought it would.

He's making the same mistake that rookie leaders seem to make, he's not creating a platform, he's trying to tear down what the party in power is doing.

Plus the whole "coming out of the recession" ahead of schedule news is certainly helped the cons.

[Devils'Advocate]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

He's making the same mistake that rookie leaders seem to make, he's not creating a platform, he's trying to tear down what the party in power is doing.

I think history has proven that that strategy works incredibly well.

I still think this Ipsos poll is an outlier, and I have no fear the Ford Prefect will be owing me $100 (Liberals will have a higher popular vote next election than last and have more seats).

[mykalberta]

What is the bet? More pop vote/seats that cons or more than what they have now?

[Dan02]

http://start.shaw.ca/start/enCA/News...c=n082438A.xml

well 1 of these 2 polls is a outlier

[octothorp]

Yeah, I think we'll get a much better idea in the next few weeks of where the polls are trending. If you're the Liberals, the good news is that even if this Ipsos one is the first one since late January that shows the Cons with any sort of sizable lead, but even so it's no worse than the 2008 election results. I think if you're the Liberals, the question isn't whether or not you can improve on your results (that should be relatively easy), it's whether you can actually win now. If I were them, I'd wait until next spring at the earliest, although a lot could change in the next few weeks.

[Calgaryborn]

The problem the Liberals have is that this recession isn't very deep and may not last another year. If they don't strike soon they might have to fight against a conservative government boosting of a recovering economy and bright future.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Calgaryborn

The problem the Liberals have is that this recession isn't very deep and may not last another year. If they don't strike soon they might have to fight against a conservative government boosting of a recovering economy and bright future.

That is true (about the recession not lasting). At the same time though the CPC is going to have to explain why this minor little recession has sent the government spiralling into deficit.

I know that the easy argument is that they had to do this otherwise the Liberals and NDP would've brought down the house. The problem is that you can't both take the credit for the government intervention and also say that it was your opponents who caused the debt, if you see what I mean here.

[evman150]

Originally Posted by Dan02

http://start.shaw.ca/start/enCA/News...c=n082438A.xml

well 1 of these 2 polls is a outlier

The first poll has a sample size of 1000. The second has a sample size of 2000.

[Calgaryborn]

Originally Posted by Slava

That is true (about the recession not lasting). At the same time though the CPC is going to have to explain why this minor little recession has sent the government spiralling into deficit.

I know that the easy argument is that they had to do this otherwise the Liberals and NDP would've brought down the house. The problem is that you can't both take the credit for the government intervention and also say that it was your opponents who caused the debt, if you see what I mean here.

The recession blame is squarely on the American economy right now. When trade with the States decrease most Canadians accept it will slow the Canadian economy. The need for the government to over spend in order to soften the blow of a shrinking economy on average Canadians is obvious and also accepted. The Liberals almost overthrew the government on the premise that they weren't doing enough. I can't see them getting much steam from arguing the government is spending too much now. The Liberals would be better off arguing that the Conservatives haven't been compassionate enough or are spending the money wisely enough. That would be more believable.

From what I've read Obama is only spending about 9% of his stimulus package this year. Next year much more will be spent because regardless of where the economy really is at he'll want an upswing before midterm elections. Added to that the recession has soften in areas due probably to time. People won't sit on their money indefinitely. People are already testing the waters in the stock market. Also, the population is still getting older. People are retiring and moving away from the city. That movement alone will create some traction in the real estate market. Products like cars and electronics have a short life span. They will have to be replaced eventually. Slowly the glut of unemployed will step in to new jobs opened up by retirements. Remember before the recession there were fears of shortages in most professions for the coming years. People might cling to there jobs a little longer now that their nest egg has shrunk but, time doesn't stand still. Some will revise their expectations for their retirement income and others will fall to health issues or mandatory retirement at 65.
I don't expect anything dramatic but, their should be positive signs of recovery building slowly over the next few years.