Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[nik-]

Yeah, when my interest rate went down I left the payment the same and it's making a serious dent on my principle.

You've already burnt that payment amount into your head and adjusted your lifestyle around it, so unless your employment situation has taken a dip, just keep on plugging at the same payment imo.

[Calgary14]

Originally Posted by nik-

Yeah, when my interest rate went down I left the payment the same and it's making a serious dent on my principle.

You've already burnt that payment amount into your head and adjusted your lifestyle around it, so unless your employment situation has taken a dip, just keep on plugging at the same payment imo.

A great way to pay off a mortgage quickly. We do the same and it's surprising how easy it is. We already have budgeted a certain amount in the past so when it's time for renewal and payments are lower we just keep them the same and the extra goes on the principal

[Eric Vail]

Originally Posted by Jedi Ninja

That's a compounded annual rate of return of 4.4% since 1955. If they had put the money in the Dow instead, they'd have almost $1.8 million.

My parents bough a house in Wildwood in 1968 for $15,000 so I suspect the initial 1950s price of $55,000 had an extra digit.

[gladaki]

Do you think its a good time to buy house. IMF and TD report says canadian market is 10% overvalued, Detusche bank says its close to 30%...

[ranchlandsselling]

Originally Posted by gladaki

Do you think its a good time to buy house. IMF and TD report says canadian market is 10% overvalued, Detusche bank says its close to 30%...

If you've got a downpayment, you think you'll live there for 5-years at least, would like stability (vs renting) and can afford the carrying costs (mortgage, utils, taxes, repairs and maintenance) as well as the risk of higher interest rates at your next renewal it seems like a good time to buy.

The problem with IMF/TD/Dousche Bank reports is they generalize too much. It's easy to say we're overvalued by Toronto and Vancouver price/income ratios, when considering job growth, unemployment and in comparison to rent. Calgary on the other hand - with the incomes people have in this city our affordability index shows better than the other major centres in Canada. The housing skeptics like to lambast about bad things in Toronto and Vancouver then throw in Calgary and refer to it as a boom/bust town. If you've got a job that you feel is stable and you can afford to buy I think it's a perfectly fine time.

But don't expect to make a ton of capital gains off of a house. That should be a bonus on top of living in it and paying down the mortgage so you have an asset at the end of the amortization that is worth a substantial amount of money.

[Calgary14]

Originally Posted by ranchlandsselling

If you've got a downpayment, you think you'll live there for 5-years at least, would like stability (vs renting) and can afford the carrying costs (mortgage, utils, taxes, repairs and maintenance) as well as the risk of higher interest rates at your next renewal it seems like a good time to buy.

The problem with IMF/TD/Dousche Bank reports is they generalize too much. It's easy to say we're overvalued by Toronto and Vancouver price/income ratios, when considering job growth, unemployment and in comparison to rent. Calgary on the other hand - with the incomes people have in this city our affordability index shows better than the other major centres in Canada. The housing skeptics like to lambast about bad things in Toronto and Vancouver then throw in Calgary and refer to it as a boom/bust town. If you've got a job that you feel is stable and you can afford to buy I think it's a perfectly fine time.

But don't expect to make a ton of capital gains off of a house. That should be a bonus on top of living in it and paying down the mortgage so you have an asset at the end of the amortization that is worth a substantial amount of money.

I never pay too much attention to national housing stats for that reason. The country is far too big to generalize the housing market into one stat. The situation in Fort Mac is likely the complete opposite of that in Newfoundland. People don't take into account household incomes when they compare cities like Calgary and Vancouver as mentioned. Some cities may be overvalued but definitely not all

[zarrell]

Originally Posted by gladaki

Do you think its a good time to buy house. IMF and TD report says canadian market is 10% overvalued, Detusche bank says its close to 30%...

Canadian market \= Calgary market.

The overinflation is in Toronto and Vancouver where the majority of the real estate is. Sure things could level off in Calgary, but that wont be this year.

[1stLand]

The market is crazy out there.
Multiple offers, bidding wars, cats and dogs - living together

[Slava]

What's the average house price at this point in Calgary, and for that price what do they base it on? (Like 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom detached, 1500 square feet?)

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by ranchlandsselling

But don't expect to make a ton of capital gains off of a house. That should be a bonus on top of living in it and paying down the mortgage so you have an asset at the end of the amortization that is worth a substantial amount of money.

That's my favorite part of home-ownership. It's a forced investment towards yourself.

Yes, there are probably better ways to invest money that may or may not get you more capital gains, but those require effort and intelligence. Effort that most people won't make because they are too busy working and living their lives, and intelligence that I don't have. Putting money towards your mortgage every month is effortless and consistent...and it's an investment that you can can actually enjoy while it accrues.

[Table 5]

Yeah, unfortunately that too.

[Tron_fdc]

I have a buddy who is a framer in South Calgary, he says it's busier than it was in 2008 (or at least he is).

He's been building in Calgary since 1995, runs 6 or 7 crews, and said that he has enough work with his homebuilder to take as many houses as he wants. He also said that the foreign framers are starting to show up again, which will help his repair business

[Slava]

Originally Posted by fotze

FYP.

Have a buddy who is a VP of a local mid to large sized corporation. Says he never invests in equities because the earnings manipulation that goes on is ridiculous.

Well I like home ownership as a method of forced savings as much as anyone else, but this is just not true. Not only can you make money in equities, but the earnings manipulation isn't as big a factor as this guys seems to believe.

[ranchlandsselling]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well I like home ownership as a method of forced savings as much as anyone else, but this is just not true. Not only can you make money in equities, but the earnings manipulation isn't as big a factor as this guys seems to believe.

Let's maybe keep this thread RE specific. I want to comment on this but fear it will derail the thread a bit.

Some people do need the forced savings that a home provides. Even if it ends up terrible or costing more in the end. Still ends up being a form of accumulation.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by fotze

You know how cynical I am on this stuff. I guess I meant individual equities. Have to spread the risk around.

I house probably isn't the best "investment" but the forcing of the savings seems to be unmatched. It is weird because it is a lot easier to force savings into other stuff. There is just a mental barrier.

For myself it was to get the money out of the account as close to the paycheck going in as possible. Seems the institutions are inflexible in when they take your withdrawl. If they spent a little time actually matching the day of the withdrawl with the pay schedule I bet they would get a lot more business.

You don't want the $1000 bucks taken out of your account before your paycheck going in. If they could make it smart and force the withdrawl the second it sees the pay deposit, I would take them up on it.

I use my company's own payroll to take the extra and put it into the company stock plan. Had to get some special permissions to get them to take above the max they allowed. Not seeing the money has a special power over me. If it is there I will spend it.

I overextend the amount put into the savings plan, raises go there too. It means I live paycheck to paycheck now though, sometimes going into overdraft. But now I am overexposed to a single stock. At least I have insider info on it.

I do something similar, but take the money out of the company stock plan once a year and transfer it my brokerage account, sell the stock and buy a more diversified set of stuff. Once the money is in my brokerage account I have never been tempted to spend it.

[kevman]

Prices up ~6% year over year and set a new record high:
http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...market-report/

The media is gearing up to hype the "boom" as well:
http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...808/story.html

It's going to be an interesting spring for those in the market one way or the other!

[Yoho]

Pimco sees Can. Realestate drop 20% in next five years.


http://business.financialpost.com/20...as-much-as-20/

[Bill Bumface]

I wish we could hang out in a balanced economy, just for a while. I don't think our industry will ever diversify in the current climate. There is no more "Alberta Advantage" and no reason to move an office here unless you are directly downstream of the energy industry.

[nik-]

I think I'm just going to forgo buying a home here and buy a home in Europe. Slug it out in a condo until I'm ready to retire. I don't know how people can do some of these commutes they do, I would lose my ####ing mind.

[Johnny199r]

Originally Posted by nik-

I think I'm just going to forgo buying a home here and buy a home in Europe. Slug it out in a condo until I'm ready to retire. I don't know how people can do some of these commutes they do, I would lose my ####ing mind.

I'd much rather have a smaller place closer to the core than a bigger house with a long commute.