2014/2015 Trade Speculation and Rumors

[Reign of Fire]

Originally Posted by BrownDrake

Hudler has one year left at 4 and then a UFA.

Considering his size, wouldn't be surprised he's dealt at the deadline

[BrownDrake]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

What's your reasoning behind this?

2016-17 cap is tight, yes. But off the books the very next year in 2017-18:
$2.90M - Engelland
$3.15M - Raymond
$3.50M - Smid
$5.25M - Wideman

And this is assuming we already gave Hudler a raise the year prior.


It's pretty safe to assume that the first three will be pushed out by the youngsters by the end of 2016. And I think Wideman will be traded in his UFA year while his value is still high. Even if he doesn't - that's still a generous extra $10M to do the one really pressing matter that offseason: Sam Bennett gets term and a hefty raise. Once that's done, there's your Flames core (Gio, Brodie, Monahan, Gaudreau, Bennett) locked up for a long time right there. Other contracts or players are a secondary matter - the term on those contracts will not be long enough to affect the Flames cap situation long term.

I think if you look around the league there are very few teams with 24 million tied up in 4 forwards. Thanks to our friends to the North, our big 3 will sign deals north of 6 per year (cause they r better). We have two years before Bennetts new deal, but doubt we can sign Hudler to just a two year.

When you look at other comparable LWingers at the 29 to 32 age bracket that are 65 to 75 point players they are 5.5 to 7.5 million players - what do you think he gets on the market? I might be wrong but I think someone will pay him close to 6 per over 4 or 5 years, if it's the flames that's a mistake.

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by BrownDrake

I think if you look around the league there are very few teams with 24 million tied up in 4 forwards.

When you look at other comparable LWingers at the 29 to 32 age bracket that are 65 to 75 point players they are 5.5 to 7.5 million players - what do you think he gets on the market? I might be wrong but I think someone will pay him close to 6 per over 4 or 5 years, if it's the flames that's a mistake.

Two of them seem to be favorites to win the Stanley Cup this year, so this is a non-issue.

Chicago:
$10.5M - Toews
$10.5M - Kane
$5.9M - Sharp
$5.275 - Hossa


Anaheim:
$8.625M - Perry
$8.25M - Getzlaf
$5M - Kesler
$3M - Cogliano

I highlighted Hossa there because I feel he's Hudler's comparable. Older, but steady and still can put up a lot of points...so is being paid accordingly with long term (TWELVE years). And with all the comparables to the Blackhawks we get, why can't Hudler be our Hossa?

[BrownDrake]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Two of them seem to be favorites to win the Stanley Cup this year, so this is a non-issue.

Chicago:
$10.5M - Toews
$10.5M - Kane
$5.9M - Sharp
$5.275 - Hossa


Anaheim:
$8.625M - Perry
$8.25M - Getzlaf
$5M - Kesler
$3M - Cogliano

I highlighted Hossa there because I feel he's Hudler's comparable. Older, but steady and still can put up a lot of points...so is being paid accordingly with long term (TWELVE years). And with all the comparables to the Blackhawks we get, why can't Hudler be our Hossa?

I hope we are contenders in 2 or 3 years, but I think our time is 4 to 5 years.

Chicago is in cap trouble, Anaheims top 4 adds up to 25 but their top 3 d man are 5.5, 4.0 & 3.25 (12.75) Gio will be 8 per, Brodie 4.65 (12.65 in two d men) - if you load up on the forwards you have less money the back end.

If we can sign Hudler for 5.25 for two years I say do it, just don't think a 31 year old coming off a career season does anything less than a 4 year deal.

[868904]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Two of them seem to be favorites to win the Stanley Cup this year, so this is a non-issue.

Chicago:
$10.5M - Toews
$10.5M - Kane
$5.9M - Sharp
$5.275 - Hossa


Anaheim:
$8.625M - Perry
$8.25M - Getzlaf
$5M - Kesler
$3M - Cogliano

I highlighted Hossa there because I feel he's Hudler's comparable. Older, but steady and still can put up a lot of points...so is being paid accordingly with long term (TWELVE years). And with all the comparables to the Blackhawks we get, why can't Hudler be our Hossa?

Hossa is a big guy, the older a player gets, the slower they get, the easier they get hit, the slower they recover from injuries. Even Hossa has slowed down considerably, but he's not a defensive liability out there because he's still big and strong.

With Hudler, it's all about his quickness. How much quicker is he going to get? He's probably only going to slow down. If he's not quick, then he's not capable of doing the skill tasks that he wants to do and he loses his one advantage over other players.

A slower Hudler is not going to be worth big money. His whole game is generating offense, and the more he slows, the less likely he's going to be able to do that. He doesn't have much else to offer other than leadership, but you don't pay $5 million plus for leadership. You can get that easily in the $500k veteran UFA bin every year.

[Mark]

I was reading the Bruins off season game plan from TSN and he was talking about Lucic as potential trade bait. My initial reaction was wondering if the Flames could use someone like him. I eventually get down to Cullen's potential depth chart and see Poirier and Wotherspoon on there and no Lucic. I think I'd make that trade, but Lucic is on the last year.

http://www.tsn.ca/off-season-game-pl...ruins-1.293480

[Angelino]

Originally Posted by 868904

Hossa is a big guy, the older a player gets, the slower they get, the easier they get hit, the slower they recover from injuries. Even Hossa has slowed down considerably, but he's not a defensive liability out there because he's still big and strong.

With Hudler, it's all about his quickness. How much quicker is he going to get? He's probably only going to slow down. If he's not quick, then he's not capable of doing the skill tasks that he wants to do and he loses his one advantage over other players.

A slower Hudler is not going to be worth big money. His whole game is generating offense, and the more he slows, the less likely he's going to be able to do that. He doesn't have much else to offer other than leadership, but you don't pay $5 million plus for leadership. You can get that easily in the $500k veteran UFA bin every year.

I agree with your points. It's best to sell high on an asset that will be declining. However Hudlers chemistry on the team can't be discounted. Do you think hudler might take a bit of a discount on a contract to stay in Calgary?

[Angelino]

Originally Posted by Mark

I was reading the Bruins off season game plan from TSN and he was talking about Lucic as potential trade bait. My initial reaction was wondering if the Flames could use someone like him. I eventually get down to Cullen's potential depth chart and see Poirier and Wotherspoon on there and no Lucic. I think I'd make that trade, but Lucic is on the last year.

http://www.tsn.ca/off-season-game-pl...ruins-1.293480

I would love to see Lucic on Calgary. He's in the proper age range and has the size. Much rather pay the price on lucic than a belesky in terms of a contract. What it would take to get lucic in Calgary would be the question.

[868904]

Originally Posted by Angelino

I would love to see Lucic on Calgary. He's in the proper age range and has the size. Much rather pay the price on lucic than a belesky in terms of a contract. What it would take to get lucic in Calgary would be the question.

I have a feeling Lucic will become either a Canuck or an Oiler. I know he's upset with the Vancouver fans but I think when given the opportunity at UFA, he'll seriously consider going home. Plus there's a connection there already with Benning and i'm sure playing for Linden would be appealing for a Vancouver boy. You know the Canucks will go after him after the number Ferland did on them this year.

As for the Oilers, we know how much MacT loves Lucic and you know they will want to protect the golden boy and who better than Lucic? In fact, I could see the Oilers try and trade for Lucic even before he becomes UFA and maybe offload a package that includes Yakupov, assuming the Bruins don't intend on re-signing Lucic.

[868904]

Originally Posted by Angelino

I agree with your points. It's best to sell high on an asset that will be declining. However Hudlers chemistry on the team can't be discounted. Do you think hudler might take a bit of a discount on a contract to stay in Calgary?

Hudler has been good for the Flames, but I think eventually the Flames will have to evolve from him. They will need to upgrade that scoring winger role with someone younger and bigger. Maybe it'll be a guy they draft this year? I think the Flames should just ride out the Hudler contract and let him walk as a UFA.

His utility to the Flames in 3 or 4 years will be mostly in the form of leadership and like I said in an earlier post, you can get leadership for much cheaper. Besides, isn't it a foregone conclusion that Iggy will be back for his final contract and finally give the Flames a hometown discount and play the veteran leader role ala Lanny McDonald in helping the Flames to the cup? It is destiny.

[sureLoss]

Alexander Radulov's agent says Patrick Roy calls his client all the time trying to get him to come to the Avalanche. Radulov played for Roy's Ramparts for two years.

Radulov's KHL contract expires after this season.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Alexander Radulov's agent says Patrick Roy calls his client all the time trying to get him to come to the Avalanche. Radulov played for Roy's Ramparts for two years.

Radulov's KHL contract expires after this season.

Headcase playing for another massive headcase.

That would work out wonderfully I bet...

[The Original FFIV]

Not a player rumor but Bill Watters was on Tsn1040 this am and said Quenneville could be out in Chicago as he's not getting along with the Bowmans. Thinks Buffalo would be wise to wait and see what happens before moving on Bylsma. If Chicago loses on Saturday will be interesting to watch.

[Da_Chief]

Bill Watters is an idiot.

[Street Pharmacist]

Yeah. Wilbur is funny to listen too, but not connected anymore to anything and just throws crap at the wall to see what sticks. He's hilarious when he's ranting about Ovechkin

[handgroen]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

Bill Watters is an idiot.

no doubt, quenville is one win away from playing for yet another cup, his team is a perennial contender, and chicago seems to be one of the most harmonious organizations in the league post-wirtz.

but where there's smoke there's fire right?

[Imported_Aussie]

Originally Posted by Mark

I was reading the Bruins off season game plan from TSN and he was talking about Lucic as potential trade bait. My initial reaction was wondering if the Flames could use someone like him. I eventually get down to Cullen's potential depth chart and see Poirier and Wotherspoon on there and no Lucic. I think I'd make that trade, but Lucic is on the last year.

http://www.tsn.ca/off-season-game-pl...ruins-1.293480

I wouldn't trade Poirier - even though he shoots left, he is best on the RW and that is an organizational weakness. Lucic is a LW which is an area of depth. Lucic is also UFA after this season, so paying out the two of the closest prospects the Flames have seems a bit steep. Sure, he would be an upgrade on where Ferland is now, and could help against teams like Anaheim and LA, but bringing him in, you have to make him the #2 LW behind Gaudreau, ahead of Bouma, and Ferland is 4th line/pressbox and you have to see him in that role for a few more years with a new contract if you are paying that kind of a premium.

If the Bruins want to shed salary and Lucic is outs, I would be lowballing them, not offering a former 1st and 2nd round picks who look to be progressing towards NHL careers in the next 1-2 seasons.

[handgroen]

Originally Posted by Mark

I eventually get down to Cullen's potential depth chart and see Poirier and Wotherspoon on there and no Lucic. I think I'd make that trade, but Lucic is on the last year.

http://www.tsn.ca/off-season-game-pl...ruins-1.293480

yeah it's weird that it's published that way on their site, but it's gotta be some editing mistake.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Yeah, there is no real problems on the horizon cap-wise. We're positioned extremely well (so long as we don't get stupid during free agency).

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

This is incorrect.

If we just keep the roster we have right now, we will still have approx $19M in cap to spend in '17-'18. Plenty of room for one more short term, high dollar player.

Your assertion of incorrectness is incorrect. As others have noted, it's not nearly as simple as you're making it out to be. We won't necessarily have problems, but we could be a cap team pretty quickly. There was some analysis done on this in another thread, as well as:

http://flamesnation.ca/2015/5/21/fla...moving-forward

[Incogneto]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Some things the spreadsheet doesn't take into account:


1.) Mark Giordano is going to be paid

Judging by what CP thinks, he'll be getting a raise of $3M to somewhere around 7-7.5M AAV. Potentially even higher.

+$3M in cap for 2016-17.

2.) Johnny and Mony

They'll be getting the biggest raises. Sure, you can bridge them but it'll put you in an even worse cap hell later. And we already consider them part of the core moving forward, so I would be expecting like $5-6M AAV each... a massive hike up from their ELC's.

+$10-12M in cap for 2016-17.

3.) Jiri Hudler will probably stay

I think the Flames have recognized the stellar job he's done mentoring our two prize rookies, and will continue to do that as long as he can score at a competent pace. I see Hudler staying in Calgary... probably not retiring here, but at least another few years at a similar cap hit.

+$4M in cap for 2016-17.

4.) Kris Russell might too

Russell is worth every bit of his $2.6M contract right now especially after he stepped up so well in the absence of Giordano. So when his current contract ends he'll probably want a respectable raise as well. It won't be a ridiculous amount, and since he's from Caroline he might even give us a hometown discount.

+$4M in cap for 2016-17.


5.) Goalie Situation after 2015-16

As you pointed out, we will have Ortio and probably one other goalie, likely from free agency or trade. I don't think Gillies will be ready for the NHL until like 1 pro season.

Ortio will be likely ready to be our starter in 2016-17. So he'll get a raise to probably like $2-3M AAV. Our UFA/trade backup is harder to predict, but we'll just say $2M for now.


+$4M in cap for 2016-17.


6.) RFA's that will be staying
I noticed you listed some players that you expect to be gone/traded. So I'll assume that the other RFAs on your list that haven't been mentioned already will stay and likely get raises.

Granlund - Probably minor raise, from 767K to probably 900K. Negligible.
Colborne - Raise by $1M (unless he really sucks next year)
Wotherspoon - Raise by $1M

7.) Smid's situation

Between retiring and not getting paid vs LTIR and getting paid.... I think it's safe to assume he's not *officially* retiring - which means he'll be paid what his contract says. I think the Flames will put him on LTIR so the cap isn't an issue during the season. However, IIRC he would still count towards the year-end cap, LTIR or not.

+$3.5M in cap for 2016-17.



Adding it up, that's already around $30M of cap the Flames will be looking to add in 2016-17. If we sign free agents to replace Jones and Bollig, then we'll be edging dangerously close to the cap limit that year.

...did you notice the yearly tabs at the bottom? I have 1 tab for every year moving forwards.
1) I have Gio accounted for $7.5M moving forward
2) I have both Mony and Gaudreau accounted for $6M per year extensions.
3) I used the assumption of 'ONLY CURRENT ROSTER PLAYERS', and I decided to move on from Jiri to have the kids move up.
4) Kris Russell was a tough one....In my original thread on this issue, I didn't know what to pay him for an extension. There was some discussion about it in this thread: http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=147234
5) I accounted for Ortio getting a $3M/yr extension. As for backup, like I said, I was only using current roster players.
6) Again, RFA's were all accounted for in the season tabs.
7) I am not sure what the rule in on this.....but the $3.5M shouldn't be an issue.

Please take a look at the tabs at the bottom....The way the numbers work right now, only with current roster players (no UFAs), we have $19M free in '17-'18