[GT] US election - It's 2020, what could possibly go wrong?

[opendoor]

Regarding Pennsylvania, based on Washington Post numbers:

6.156M votes cast
Approx 890K remaining
246K deficit for Biden

So that'd mean he'd need about 64% of the remaining vote to catch Trump. It's definitely possible, given where the votes are coming from (72% of the votes remaining are in counties Clinton won last time) and that they're likely mostly mail-in ballots which have favored Democrats.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Azure

So a recount means not just recounting the ballots on hand, but going from county to county and checking everything?

Sheesh.

No, Wisconsin conducts elections on the municipal level. So the cities, towns, etc are responsible for the actual vote process on election day. Then they have to provide everything to the counties to "canvass", which is a sort of re-check, I gather, that takes a few weeks. Then the results are certified at the county level (i.e., made official). Until that has been done, there can be no recount, because the results aren't official.

So it's not going county to county to check everything, it's rather everything getting aggregated at the county office level and reviewed there, and then reported centrally.

[SuperMatt18]

I still am not comfortable with these results leading to a Biden win.

If Trump wins Nev, Ga, NC, PA, and Alaska doesn’t he still win the election? Those could still go either way IMO and Trump still holds the lead in 4/5 (even though ballots are trending towards Biden).

[Enoch Root]

yes, that is correct

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I still am not comfortable with these results leading to a Biden win.

If Trump wins Nev, Ga, NC, PA, and Alaska doesn’t he still win the election? Those could still go either way IMO and Trump still holds the lead in 4/5 (even though ballots are trending towards Biden).

I think at this point, we are in the middle of a clock-killing drive, not a 2-minute drill to force OT.

Nothing is certain until it’s certain, however. So hold fast.

[troutman]

MSNBC saying Biden is winning 80-85% of mail-in ballots in some PA counties, with one million votes to count.

[Art Vandelay]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I still am not comfortable with these results leading to a Biden win.

If Trump wins Nev, Ga, NC, PA, and Alaska doesn’t he still win the election? Those could still go either way IMO and Trump still holds the lead in 4/5 (even though ballots are trending towards Biden).

Biden needs NV

[GGG]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I still am not comfortable with these results leading to a Biden win.

If Trump wins Nev, Ga, NC, PA, and Alaska doesn’t he still win the election? Those could still go either way IMO and Trump still holds the lead in 4/5 (even though ballots are trending towards Biden).

And you didn’t add Arizona which probably has more risk than Nevada where the uncounted vote is.

However Trump is down to a single path now. Biden has a few maps left.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Georgia has been getting closer...........

https://twitter.com/user/status/1324142850888683522

[Bonded]

Oof. I won't be happy until we get a clear win for Biden. I am not celebrating yet.

[Plett25]

Originally Posted by Art Vandelay

Biden needs NV

I don't think so, if Biden has AZ, he just needs one more state. NV or GA or PA.

Trump needs NV and NC and GA and PA

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Oof. I won't be happy until we get a clear win for Biden. I am not celebrating yet.

If you're looking for that cathartic "it's finally over, stick a fork in it" moment, we're still a few months away from that. The orange baboon is going to be throwing poop in every direction to try and cast doubt on the results.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Pennsylvania reported another batch. The Trump lead is now down to 292,414.

I see Nate Cohn predicting that ultimately Biden will end up leading there by 100,000 votes or so but that lead just doesn't seem to be evaporating quickly enough for that to be the case. I guess there are still 700,000 votes or so to be counted, but if you assume that Biden wins 70% of them, that would only make up 280,000 of the lead. And 70% seems pretty optimistic. I'm wondering what I'm missing.

It's a different state, but it was revealed in a report that of a batch of 4,000 mail in ballots that were counted recently in Georgia, 90% were for Biden. I suppose that could also happen in PA.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

If you're looking for that cathartic "it's finally over, stick a fork in it" moment, we're still a few months away from that. The orange baboon is going to be throwing poop in every direction to try and cast doubt on the results.

For sure but if Biden can flip GA or PA then it is pretty much done.

[Matty81]

I agree that the moaning and desperate wrangling will go on, but respectfully disagree that this will lack clarity for a long time in the minds of most.

If Nevada and Arizona are confirmed for Biden tonight at those upcoming press conferences/vote updates and the major news outlets like NBC and even his own right wing outlets like Fox declare Biden hits 270 and call it, I don't think Trump's coming back from that. Once the general public has largely been told and embraced Biden as President elect, it would take something seismic for that to revert.

Without even getting in to Georgia, NC and Pennsylvania.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

If you're looking for that cathartic "it's finally over, stick a fork in it" moment, we're still a few months away from that. The orange baboon is going to be throwing poop in every direction to try and cast doubt on the results.

The Fox News banner proclaiming Biden-270 will have to suffice.

[Lanny_McDonald]

I've been running and massaging numbers for the past couple of hours and I don't see how PA is possible. Then again, I also don't see how Arizona can flip and Paul Gozer has been telling Arizonans that there is 20% of the vote still out there from rural districts and Trump is only down 10K votes. I don't see that happening, just like I don't see Nevada going Trump, so I'm at the point of I just want some final numbers and closure on this mess, one way or another.

On a related matter, I already know two people that have said enough is enough and are heading to Canada and the maritimes to take advantage of opportunities for Americans, regardless of outcome. The past month has been brutal across the country and the stress has just been too much for some to handle. I wonder if this will be a trend. I know of others exploring opportunities elsewhere (Mexico, Belise, Costa Rica, Panama, and Vietnam). Really strange to see people just say #### it and move on.

[HockeyKhan]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

I know I'll regret saying this, but my respect for Fox has gone up with how they've handled this and defended the correct, democratic, process.

They had the the best coverage all evening as far as im concerned.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Fox News just claimed that there are 100k ballots left to be counted in Philadelphia and only 160k statewide. Not sure if that means that there is a huge amount counted and unreported, but... that's what the reporter in Philly said.

They keep playing that insane Eric Trump / Rudy Giuliani footage, which I don't even think has been acknowledged by the two left leaning networks. It's kind of annoying. I didn't want to hear that even once, much less ten times.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by HockeyKhan

They had the the best coverage all evening as far as im concerned.

Yeah I actually thought they were'nt bad. NBC was better, but Fox wasn't bad.