Blu-ray Vs. HD DVD not as close as expected... (Official- HD-DVD Dead)

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by LockedOut

It'll still take a long time if Blu-Ray becomes standard for BD to overtake DVD's. When DVD's became popular people did not have the collection of movies and TV shows on VHS like they do now on DVD. Thus there wasn't the major financial hassle of repurchasing the movies on DVD. I doubt today people are willing to repurchase alot of what they have on DVD. The DVD movies and players are so much cheaper than what VHS ever achieved in its time that people probably have one for each TV, possibly a portable DVD player, DVD player in each computer and a DVD player in their car. These are hurdles HD has to overcome to become mainstream not to mention getting more HDTV's into homes. Until then it's still a niche product.

Since HD player upscale your old DVD's pretty well, people don't have to replace their DVD's, they can just start buying HD's from now on. In a short while, these players will come down in price enough where buying a player will not be a hurdle for most people. You can already buy an HD DVD for under 200 bucks...Blu-Ray won't be far behind.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Kryzsky

I plan to continue buying HD-DVDs, maybe I'll be able to get them for cheap if BluRay takes over quickly. HD is HD, no matter what color plastic the case is made of. And I am buying a PS3 very soon, I'll slowly start buying BluRays when most releases are exclusive.

I understand what you're saying, but it's not like there's a wide variety of HD-DVD titles out. I don't know the exact number, but it must be only around 150. That's not exactly going to make worth it for people to ever buy an HD-DVD player when the same titles will be available on blu-ray when Paramount and Universal jump over. It may be a little cheaper, but you didn't see the Dreamcast get any burst of sales after it was dirt cheap early in last-gen's gaming. I doubt the HD-DVD player would be any different.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

Seems to be working alright for music...

I think the major hurdle for movies is download speed and size.

The average download speed for the average North American home is ridiculously slow. It would take days to download a 700 MB movie at the average speed. Even my very fast connection takes at least an hour to download a demo on my PS3.

Until download speeds increase immensely there's no way digital distribution for video is viable in the near future.

[TheyCallMeBruce]

Originally Posted by JayP

I think the major hurdle for movies is download speed and size.

The average download speed for the average North American home is ridiculously slow. It would take days to download a 700 MB movie at the average speed. Even my very fast connection takes at least an hour to download a demo on my PS3.

Until download speeds increase immensely there's no way digital distribution for video is viable in the near future.

Unless you're talking about streaming downloads, which are highly possible for HD quality movies.

[Barnes]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Paramount looks like it might be trying to get out of it's HD DVD exclusive deal....while this might not be the end of HD DVD, there sure hasn't been much positive news coming out of that camp in a while now.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ea637496-b...nclick_check=1

Here's a better article:

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...o_blu_ray.html

Paramount is denying the FT article.

[Draug]

Originally Posted by TheyCallMeBruce

Unless you're talking about streaming downloads, which are highly possible for HD quality movies.

Where?

I have Shaw Extreme, and any streaming video I have come across is nowhere near the quality of my Blu-ray discs.

I have downloaded a ton of ripped HD TV and a 42 minute episode has an mpeg4 file size of 1.2GB. It takes about 15 minutes to download, at an average speed of 9.15 Mbps. The same episode from HD-DVD or Blu-Ray rips takes about 20 minutes to download and is about 1.5GB in size. Niether option provides the same quality as my Blu-rays or Hd-dvds. A good HD rip is very marginally better than DVD and a good HDTV rip is about the same as DVD. Both my computer and my DVD players are all hooked up to the same TV, so the comparison is fairly valid.

My download speed is better than the average. Just yesterday, I helped a person that only has dialup internet access! It took him about 5 minutes to download 1.5 MB's - it literally just blinked across my screen when I downloaded it.

Until everyone can download and stream at 100 Mbps, physical media wont be obsolete.

[TheyCallMeBruce]

Originally Posted by Draug

Where?

I have Shaw Extreme, and any streaming video I have come across is nowhere near the quality of my Blu-ray discs.

I have downloaded a ton of ripped HD TV and a 42 minute episode has an mpeg4 file size of 1.2GB. It takes about 15 minutes to download, at an average speed of 9.15 Mbps. The same episode from HD-DVD or Blu-Ray rips takes about 20 minutes to download and is about 1.5GB in size. Niether option provides the same quality as my Blu-rays or Hd-dvds. A good HD rip is very marginally better than DVD and a good HDTV rip is about the same as DVD. Both my computer and my DVD players are all hooked up to the same TV, so the comparison is fairly valid.

My download speed is better than the average. Just yesterday, I helped a person that only has dialup internet access! It took him about 5 minutes to download 1.5 MB's - it literally just blinked across my screen when I downloaded it.

Until everyone can download and stream at 100 Mbps, physical media wont be obsolete.

I'm not saying this is happening now. I'm saying this will happen eventually. How soon? Who knows. It could happen in 5 years, maybe sooner.

Here's an example...

HSDPA phones were a pipe dream 5 years ago. Hell, even a couple of years ago we weren't even remotely thinking of such technology, but it is here.

I'm just trying to point out that physical media may not have as long as a shelf life as we think.

[SarichFan]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

Seems to be working alright for music...

That's an entirely different medium though... Many, Many people are afficionado's of collecting films. People who have certain favorites will double, or even triple dip into their collection when a new release is out. A huge part of buying movies to people is to add to their collections.

It's working alright for music, yes but you don't see HMV closing up shop. People still prefer a hard copy, but the ability to download from say, iTunes is for mereconvenience. If a die hard fan of a band were to choose to download or go buy an album at the store, I'd venture to guess 9/10 would rather own the CD.

Originally Posted by TheyCallMeBruce

You may not buy it, but that is the reality and the direction we are heading. It has been argued for years that the physical media needs to reinvent itself to stay alive.

And I doubt you'd be paying $20 if digital distribution comes into play. If given the choice, I would gladly spend $5 to get my movies, than $20 for some paper and plastic.

Well XBox Live has already started doing this, $7 ish I think for a HD Rental Download that lasts 24 hours.. now to me this is a huge Rip off. I'd rather scour eBay for a Blu-Ray version of 300 for $20 shipped and be able to own it forever and at a higher quality for just $13 more.

The Digital Download era of Home video has already begun and I don't see it growing any more then where it's at right now. If Blu-Ray is a niche market, Digital Downloads for movies is Uber Niche and it will stay there ONLY as a pure rental market.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by TheyCallMeBruce

Unless you're talking about streaming downloads, which are highly possible for HD quality movies.

And then you're talking about something completely different, aren't you?

You don't own anything if you're just streaming it. It might be a possibility for rentals.

[TurnedTheCorner]

Originally Posted by JayP

I understand what you're saying, but it's not like there's a wide variety of HD-DVD titles out. I don't know the exact number, but it must be only around 150. That's not exactly going to make worth it for people to ever buy an HD-DVD player when the same titles will be available on blu-ray when Paramount and Universal jump over.

Just offering up a number - Toshiba's CES booth made mention of the fact that there are over 1000 HD-DVD titles available worldwide.

[photon]

Originally Posted by JayP

And then you're talking about something completely different, aren't you?

You don't own anything if you're just streaming it. It might be a possibility for rentals.

Semantics really, you can still own something and stream it, you might own the right to stream it whenever you want/need it.

When high bandwidth becomes pervasive enough this makes the most sense as then you don't have to worry about storage and stuff.

http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/08/x...nue-to-emerge/

Stuff like that can go in between now and uber-bandwidth era, streaming but not live streaming.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Barnes

Paramount is denying the FT article.

Warner was denying it's rumored departure till pretty much the day of their anouncement, so I'm not sure that really matters.

[SarichFan]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Warner was denying it's rumored departure till pretty much the day of their anouncement, so I'm not sure that really matters.

Not only that, but The Financial Times is a highly reputable source for this kind of stuff.

It makes sense for Paramount to deny at this point as they're likely going through the legal process.

[TheyCallMeBruce]

sarichfan, we will have to agree to disagree. I am only basing this on what my company, a multimedia content provider, has done or is doing. The way we see it, the future IS digital content. And as a company, we have taken into account the trends and lifestyle choices of our demographic. What we see is that everything is pointing toward digital content distribution. I would be more than happy to share with you the details if you really want to know. So take that for what it is worth.

[Bertuzzied]

Originally Posted by TheyCallMeBruce

sarichfan, we will have to agree to disagree. I am only basing this on what my company, a multimedia content provider, has done or is doing. The way we see it, the future IS digital content. And as a company, we have taken into account the trends and lifestyle choices of our demographic. What we see is that everything is pointing toward digital content distribution. I would be more than happy to share with you the details if you really want to know. So take that for what it is worth.

As long as blu ray has a burner under $200 and media under $2-3/disc it will go away later rather then sooner. I'm sure they will have that within the next 2-3 years, and i don't see any drastic changes with streaming and shaw within that time period.

I still remember my first pioneer dvd burner for my comp. It was $700 for the burner and the DVD-R's were $8 a disc. I did a little dance everytime i made a coaster. hahahahah hehe

[Table 5]

The faltering of companies like Blockbuster should be good indication that digital content is the way of the future. Companies like Netflix are already drawing customers from traditional means, as well as offering streaming media. While not 100% there yet, I think many people are showing that they would much rather make these type of viewing decisions in front of a computer in the comfort of their home.

This doesnt mean that physical media will go away, it will just find it's own place in society. Magazines and books were supposed to die too after all.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by TheyCallMeBruce

sarichfan, we will have to agree to disagree. I am only basing this on what my company, a multimedia content provider, has done or is doing. The way we see it, the future IS digital content. And as a company, we have taken into account the trends and lifestyle choices of our demographic. What we see is that everything is pointing toward digital content distribution. I would be more than happy to share with you the details if you really want to know. So take that for what it is worth.

I'm not sure about other people, but for me personally, if I were shelling out the same amount, I would rather own a physical copy of a movie than own a right to stream it. Streaming to me is the same as PPV, or renting at Blockbuster. I like collecting movies, including having the physical disc and all the bonus stuff that may come with it (box art, postcards, etc.)

[Table 5]

who say's we can't have both?

[TheyCallMeBruce]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

I'm not sure about other people, but for me personally, if I were shelling out the same amount, I would rather own a physical copy of a movie than own a right to stream it. Streaming to me is the same as PPV, or renting at Blockbuster. I like collecting movies, including having the physical disc and all the bonus stuff that may come with it (box art, postcards, etc.)

Like Table5 said, I don't think physical media will go extinct. Like print media, they will have their place, just not front and center like they are now. And I highly doubt you'll be paying the same price. Digital content is usually cheaper (or should be).

[Barnes]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Warner was denying it's rumored departure till pretty much the day of their anouncement, so I'm not sure that really matters.

Originally Posted by SarichFan

Not only that, but The Financial Times is a highly reputable source for this kind of stuff.

It makes sense for Paramount to deny at this point as they're likely going through the legal process.

Hey, I don't make the news, I just report it!

I thought maybe Apple would add blu ray burners to the next Mac Pro at Macworld but they updated them today without.

Dual-quad core Hapertowns at 3.2ghz. My birthday's on the 22nd people.