[Signing] Patrick Kane to Detroit

[Southside403]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Yes, no doubt about it. Detroit is highly likely to make the playoffs and it's largely because they got hot and managed to find a bunch of saves and timely goals despite being outplayed consistently. That's just pure hockey. But it doesn't mean that I don't regard it is a cosmic outlier — and I think they're in for a rude awakening down the stretch, whether it's in March or if and when they do reach that first round.

Detroit hasn't been to the playoffs since 2013 10 year drought. If they make it to the dance it's a accomplishment
Not sure why you keep hating from kane to the Detroits upcoming playoff push .They are not pegged to win the cup.
Say what you want about kane the guy is a legend mr showtime has won everything .

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Right ... except the posters in favour of the Kane signing have done the same thing but in reverse. There are people who had a preconceived notion of the player being effective who didn't buy the early results and have jumped in on the more recent ones. That's just how the ballgame works. Feels like a bit of a double standard.

To me, my perspective hasn't changed because the only demonstrable difference with Kane of late is his shooting percentage. The rest is much like the last 5-ish years of his tenure in Chicago. If anything, I feel like I would be betraying my own integrity to change my opinion at this point in the face of the underlying results.

Initially was a small sample size of a player coming back from a major injury.

Now, it’s a much larger sample size.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

For me, it's not so much about wanting to cling to being proven right, because there are so many more numbers at play than goals and points and I don't view the current proceedings as sustainable. I still feel a great degree of conviction about my original take. And — quite frankly — to me, having conversations with multiple people who disagree with a specific take isn't the same as repeating the same take over and over again. It's just the nature of discourse.

I thought Kane wouldn't be productive. Dead wrong, guilty as charged. I thought he wouldn't be effective. I still don't think he is. If that's arrogant of me, well, there's not much I can do about that.

I haven't been part of this conversation, but just jumping in on this point.

I think your view of 'effective' might be too narrowly defined. He is a better point producer than every single player on the Calgary Flames, and offensive production is a massive contributor to team success. So while you may have problems with his even strength numbers (assumption on my side), at the end of the day he is producing right now and the team is doing what they can.

The Red Wings are a bizarre team, and certainly don't align with the view of a team that is on any sort of breakthrough. Collectively, they're almost all bad when looking at xGF%, SCF%, HDCF% (which is largely disconnected from their HDGF%) which I think further obfuscates Patrick Kane's overall play because when the entire team is looking like they're getting punched in, it's hard to tell root cause.

...that is all to say of course that if I'm NJD, and I know what's going on in Detroit, I go out and friggin' trade for friggin' Markstrom right friggin' now - because on paper, the Red Wings are due for a collapse and I think it could be significant.

Trade Markstrom.

(I didn't know where this post was going, but it turns out it's a Markstrom post)

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

For me, it's not so much about wanting to cling to being proven right, because there are so many more numbers at play than goals and points and I don't view the current proceedings as sustainable. I still feel a great degree of conviction about my original take. And — quite frankly — to me, having conversations with multiple people who disagree with a specific take isn't the same as repeating the same take over and over again. It's just the nature of discourse.

I thought Kane wouldn't be productive. Dead wrong, guilty as charged. I thought he wouldn't be effective. I still don't think he is. If that's arrogant of me, well, there's not much I can do about that.

How is he not effective though, if he's brought in to provide offense?

No one signs Kane to get a well rounded player at both ends of the ice. A decade and a half in people know what PK is.

Throwing in the caveat about ineffectiveness kind of dodges the whole being wrong part, which I agree is totally true.

I don't even have a horse in this race personally I just think that the larger sample size by default wins out in this argument and there isn't really anything to defend given what Kane has provided for a team that should now see playoffs with their trajectory.

But it's totally fair to predict a rude awakening or that it won't pan out longer term. You're entitled to make that prediction for sure even if you've been incorrect to this juncture. Hopefully the other side will concede if it turns out that way. But hopefully you don't shy away if the Kane experiment continues being a homerun for the rest of their season.

[TheScorpion]

I actually think the best thing to come out of this is the apparent newfound viability of hip resurfacing as a method for players to prolong their careers. Kane is back at the level he was before he suffered his injury, regardless of the quality of player you perceive(d) him to be. This will hopefully change the game like Eichel's disk replacement did.

In any event, the divide in perceptions on Kane goes way beyond this board and has existed for years in online circles. We're not breaking any new ground here. Detroit is on a run, NYR and Chicago have gone on runs with him in the lineup over the last half decade or so, but more often than not, those teams ended up being overwhelmed defensively despite 88's production. The goals and points are one thing. But what sets this Detroit team apart from Kane's other recent teams is their shooting and save percentages, both of which are way out of line with NHL averages. It just doesn't add up as being repeatable for very long. It looks suspiciously like luck. And hey, being lucky certainly has value.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Well, you know what they say. You have to be good to be lucky, and lucky to be good.

Except if you're an oiler or canuck. Then it's just horseshoes.

[AustinL_NHL]

The biggest part where Scorp was wrong was from Detroit's POV of Kane as an asset. It doesn't matter if he's now on an unsustainable bender.

- he's already more than earned his contract
- he's already likely brought in more profit (and definitely more entertainment) for the organization than could've been expected
- he could be/would've been a great trade chip at the deadline
- ^ or he's just a free playoff rental.

The contract signing is already a certified W with 20+ games to go no matter how poorly he plays from this point on.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

How is he not effective though, if he's brought in to provide offense?

No one signs Kane to get a well rounded player at both ends of the ice. A decade and a half in people know what PK is.

Throwing in the caveat about ineffectiveness kind of dodges the whole being wrong part, which I agree is totally true.

I don't even have a horse in this race personally I just think that the larger sample size by default wins out in this argument and there isn't really anything to defend given what Kane has provided for a team that should now see playoffs with their trajectory.

But it's totally fair to predict a rude awakening or that it won't pan out longer term. You're entitled to make that prediction for sure even if you've been incorrect to this juncture. Hopefully the other side will concede if it turns out that way. But hopefully you don't shy away if the Kane experiment continues being a homerun for the rest of their season.

31 teams 'fail' each year so it's pretty easy to vindicate any take if you really want to. But even if Detroit slides and ends up missing the playoffs by 1 point or something it would still be a successful step forward for the team from where they've been.

[TheScorpion]

It's a step forward ... although my concern is that Detroit is going to be artificially capped out in the mushy middle going forward with their lack of high-end young talent. The guys they already have on the roster are ideal secondary guys to me. I'd love it if I had Larkin as my 2C and Seider as my 2D but Detroit doesn't really have anyone else at those two premium positions, nor are any blue-chip guys coming up through the system. They could strike gold on a guy like Danielson but even if he pans out, I'm not sold on the viability of that core, even if some of the individual players are solid.

It reminds me of when Vancouver had Horvat as their top centre.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

It's a step forward ... although my concern is that Detroit is going to be artificially capped out in the mushy middle going forward with their lack of high-end young talent. The guys they already have on the roster are ideal secondary guys to me. I'd love it if I had Larkin as my 2C and Seider as my 2D but Detroit doesn't really have anyone else at those two premium positions, nor are any blue-chip guys coming up through the system. They could strike gold on a guy like Danielson but even if he pans out, I'm not sold on the viability of that core, even if some of the individual players are solid.

It reminds me of when Vancouver had Horvat as their top centre.

$2.75M is not going to cause that.

[TheScorpion]

No, I didn't mean because of Kane's contract (although who knows what kind of raise he gets). I think they're at the point where they're out of range from being able to reliably pick blue-chip prospects in the draft. Their core is solid, but not great, and because they've graduated to being a playoff bubble team, they're out of lottery range — but I think they might be capped out as a bubble team with this core unless they can pull off a miracle trade for Elias Pettersson or something.

[Matt Reeeeead]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Right ... except the posters in favour of the Kane signing have done the same thing but in reverse. There are people who had a preconceived notion of the player being effective who didn't buy the early results and have jumped in on the more recent ones. That's just how the ballgame works. Feels like a bit of a double standard.

To me, my perspective hasn't changed because the only demonstrable difference with Kane of late is his shooting percentage. The rest is much like the last 5-ish years of his tenure in Chicago. If anything, I feel like I would be betraying my own integrity to change my opinion at this point in the face of the underlying results.

“The doing it in reverse” is posters simply using the exact metrics you initially played score board with. You chose the parameters how success was being judged. Here are elements I don’t think you are recognizing or giving any credit to:

-played scoreboard after the first handful of games post mega injury; it’s reasonable there was dust to shake off

-he’s been excellent on the pp; that’s a repeatable skill

-he’s pushed Raymond and Perron down a line to create better matchups for other scoring lines; if Kane can hold serve towards what they were producing in their prior roles, the Wings are well ahead depth wise

-the Wings are getting out shot attempted, but where’s the analysis on pre shot movement on both ends of the ice? The wings during this stretch are grossly outscoring opponents when he’s been on the ice. Not fully sustainable, but is there more there than meets the eye? His teams have often outscored those expectations with him and other high efficiency scorers (ie. jt miller, Blake wheeler), whom have had similar impacts at times when xG didn’t appear too favourable. There are outliers in this sport that can’t be fully judged on trends that fit the general population

-examine the overtime goal again; yes, Kane didn’t follow his man, Seth Jones got first crack to win the game. But, Detroit also had two defenders camping in the slot and choking off obvious passing lanes. The shot attempt by Jones certainly was visible for the goalie, and didn’t present a grade A+ scoring chance. I read two things from this after watching the Blackhawks much of his career. Defenders are more careful with Kane on the ice to leave the spot area free, and related, Kane has the liberty to “pick his spots”. This style absolutely lends itself to easier clearance for the opponent to get opportunities, but not necessarily grade A chances with easy rebounds, passing lanes, or odd man rush. Detroit made the stop with control and gave a high end finisher a chance to win the game, and he dunked it. We’ve watched the same story dozens of times. Sometimes the chance won’t come, no strategy is fool proof.

But I am concluding that this is a more nuanced discussion than you’re giving it credit for, and I challenge you to look closer at your bias on this one and consider if your confidence and conclusion continue to be premature on this topic due to sn inherent bias, and whether a deeper analysis on these types of players are warranted.

Btw - I don’t disagree that Detroit isn’t that great. I just don’t attribute that specifically to Kane; or the Wings being in a worse spot by bringing him
In. He was in my eyes, a small, luxury upgrade. I don’t buy their goaltending or D core to be a sustainable contender or make noise in the playoffs.


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[TheScorpion]

Detroit's pre-shot puck movement and other microstats have generally ranked near the bottom of the league this season. The main exception is, yes, the PP — valuable, but less of a factor in playoff-style hockey, and I attribute a lot of its success to DeBrincat.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1761760671195189383

With Kane on the ice at 5v5 thus far this season, the Red Wings have scored 20 goals on 12.88 expected and have allowed 15 on 15.38 expected. Outperforming xG has been Kane's thing for a long time but never quite to this extent: he shot roughly 10% over his last four seasons in Chicago, compared to 19.05% now.

I think two things are true (and this is where the nuances come in): 1) Kane has historically broken xG models somewhat due to his very particular method of play in the offensive zone; 2) Kane is so far above his typical model-breaking baseline this year that it's almost impossible to look at his most recent results without a sizeable amount of apprehension. And even when he's at his baseline, Kane can cost you.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

I'll take on the burden of all that apprehensiveness to have Kane here for that contract. Every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

I'll take on the burden of all that apprehensiveness to have Kane here for that contract. Every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Yeah, you think he would help Calgary’s PP.

And maybe he could finish Hubby’s passes.

[Shazam]

Kane must have stolen TheScorpion's girlfriend.

[Matt Reeeeead]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Detroit's pre-shot puck movement and other microstats have generally ranked near the bottom of the league this season. The main exception is, yes, the PP — valuable, but less of a factor in playoff-style hockey, and I attribute a lot of its success to DeBrincat.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1761760671195189383

With Kane on the ice at 5v5 thus far this season, the Red Wings have scored 20 goals on 12.88 expected and have allowed 15 on 15.38 expected. Outperforming xG has been Kane's thing for a long time but never quite to this extent: he shot roughly 10% over his last four seasons in Chicago, compared to 19.05% now.

I think two things are true (and this is where the nuances come in): 1) Kane has historically broken xG models somewhat due to his very particular method of play in the offensive zone; 2) Kane is so far above his typical model-breaking baseline this year that it's almost impossible to look at his most recent results without a sizeable amount of apprehension. And even when he's at his baseline, Kane can cost you.

Good thoughts here, a few ideas:
-it’s not like the Larkin line has previously been above water in g%
-Debrincat certainly didn’t have the magic touch in gelling in Ottawa. He is a good player, drives play, but can be a bit one dimensional in the ozone… strikes me that Kane is a good match for his game as it has in the past
-regress kanes numbers a bit and with his skills fair to say they could be around even after… that’s not worse than before, it just looks different, while moving good players down the lineup to improve other lines
-clearly his impacts are trending better than first few weeks… numbers still might be moving

All in all, the idea that Kane has hurt much of anything to this point, even considering underlying numbers, seems like a reach


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[FanIn80]

One of my problem with expected goals, is the way people use it. At its core, it's just supposed to represent a flatline rate of how an "average player" would perform in a given situation. It's not meant to measure how Patrick Kane would perform in those situations. (Actually, I'd argue it's more of a representation of the quality of the situations that occur when a player is on the ice -- not tecnically a measurement of the player... other than to say that when player x is on the ice, situations in which an average-skilled player would produce a goal occur more/less regularily than when they aren't on the ice.)

To say that "20 goals on 12.88 expected" is indicative of Kane unsustainably "outperforming xG" just belies the point of xG. It's supposed to help you figure out what the benefit of having a particular player on this ice is, and when used comparatively with actual goals and/or assists can help you see who the truly elite drivers and finishers are.

Kane has proved himself to be a highly superior finisher and driver over almost the entirety of his career, so I'm not sure why anyone is worried that he's outperforming an average player.

[Enoch Root]

And if/when his shooting percentage normalizes, it's not like the Wings have to give back the points they have earned to date.

I enjoy stats, and they're fun to look at things in different ways, but at the end of the day, I am far more concerned with results.

[Matt Reeeeead]

Ya, like, the canucks are out scoring xG by about 25-30 goals with JT Miller on the ice at even strength this year. I’m sure there is some level of regression coming, but I’m
Comfortable concluding that JT Miller is having a positive influence on the outperformance of xG


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