06-05-2018, 12:17 AM
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#221
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Vancouver
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In an election like this, I think you need to take a closer look at the actually MPP candidate for your riding and choose the best one that you think will promote the best interests for your riding. The needs and wants for a specific riding rarely fall into the general template of an overall party platform and issues should be voted on in a case-by-case manner. Back when I was a kid, my parents were Liberal supporters, but I remember that they both voted PC a few times because the PC MPP for our riding was top notch when it came to being versatile on issues specific to our riding. Where did that go in this country?
It's unfortunate though that so many big party candidates end up supporting the party line come Hell or high water over the desires of their constituents. I would like to think that at least a few independents would have a chance in a crap election like this one. Too bad that rarely happens though.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
Last edited by FlamesAddiction; 06-05-2018 at 12:22 AM.
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06-05-2018, 06:30 AM
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#222
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
An 80% chance of a PC majority does not mean a 20% chance of an NDP majority.
Nor is 2 heads equal to 20%.
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Fair point.
I should have said that two coin flips is the probability of not getting a Conservatove majority. Given the accuracy of riding by riding assessment and the polls themselves a 75% chance and an 80% are making the same statement. The error bars on that percentage are large. The general point is that it is not unlikely or a polling failure if the PCs were to not win a majority Friday
Also not accounted for is the Trend that the NDP support has been rising which is very hard to factor in into these types of models.
Last edited by GGG; 06-05-2018 at 06:33 AM.
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06-05-2018, 07:19 AM
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#223
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
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Uh, a law firm generally doesn't sue people. It represents clients who do. Aird & Berlis is a big, reputable shop. Is she even involved in the file? Mpst likely not. That dog won't hunt - just an attempt to exploit public ignorance.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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06-05-2018, 08:56 AM
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#224
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In the Sin Bin
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I love the equivalence the Liberals are drawing in their latest ads. "Both sides are scary extremists. Vote for us to prevent either from forming a majority."
Not a surprise that Grenier has the Ontario Liberals pulling a Federal PCs circa 1993.
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06-05-2018, 08:59 AM
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#225
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
What bugs me about that graphic is that it doesnt explain what the 80% means.
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Yes it does. There's an information button right beside the statement:
Quote:
About probability of winning
The Poll Tracker gives a probability that each party would have of winning an election held today. These probabilities are based on simulations of 10,000 elections, taking into account potential errors in both the polls and the projection model itself. Full methodology here.
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06-05-2018, 09:12 AM
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#226
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14
Yes it does. There's an information button right beside the statement:
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The graphic does not.
People don't read the methodology. The same people who argue that polling failed in the US election will argue that polling failed here if the cons do not win a majority. Graphics like this need much better explanation and context around them to explain what they mean in leymans terms in order to effectively convey what probabilities are.
It takes to the very end of a technical methodology article before they mention the coin flip. Instead of presenting it in graphic itself.
Last edited by GGG; 06-05-2018 at 09:16 AM.
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06-05-2018, 09:35 AM
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#227
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In the Sin Bin
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The link is literally right beside the "probability of winning" header.
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06-05-2018, 10:15 AM
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#228
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Norm!
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__________________
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
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06-05-2018, 10:18 AM
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#229
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Norm!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
Uh, a law firm generally doesn't sue people. It represents clients who do. Aird & Berlis is a big, reputable shop. Is she even involved in the file? Mpst likely not. That dog won't hunt - just an attempt to exploit public ignorance.
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Yeah, you're probably right, but I'm suspicious by nature, and something like this being held until three days before the election, comes across at first brush as political.
Ford is claiming that he has taken care of the widow, he has no idea where this accusation is coming from, but that they've been trying to shake him down for money for a while now and when he refused they went public.
__________________
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
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06-05-2018, 10:47 AM
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#230
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Crowsnest Pass
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
Uh, a law firm generally doesn't sue people. It represents clients who do. Aird & Berlis is a big, reputable shop. Is she even involved in the file? Mpst likely not. That dog won't hunt - just an attempt to exploit public ignorance.
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I'm sure it was raised at the partners meeting that a client is suing Ford for $16.5 Million.
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06-05-2018, 08:52 PM
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#231
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Norm!
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__________________
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
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06-05-2018, 09:35 PM
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#232
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Vancouver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
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Quote:
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This election has been a forlorn hunt for the needed mixture of integrity and smart policy. The electorate cannot vote for leadership where it does not exist, or for platforms that are wrong for the times. So if you are lucky enough to have a local candidate who embodies integrity and principle, we encourage you to support him or her. The representatives you choose will need to be strong to hold the next premier to account. Who do you trust to do so?
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Pretty much what I was getting at. In an election like this, choose who you think the best candidate for your riding is who will hopefully have the guts to stand up to the party and the leaders. It's not always easy to find someone like that of course.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
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06-06-2018, 07:19 AM
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#233
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction
who will hopefully have the guts to stand up to the party and the leaders. It's not always easy to find someone like that of course.
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Because standing up to the leader isn't actually a thing in our system. The only thing that gets you is expelled from the party.
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06-06-2018, 08:53 AM
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#234
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Norm!
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Watching the news this morning, it stated that the latest mainstreet poll had the PC's opening a 5% gap on the NDP and on the way to a majority
(Again its polls).
It also has the Liberals enroute to being reduced to rump status with 1 to 2 seats.
__________________
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
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06-06-2018, 01:06 PM
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#236
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In the Sin Bin
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Honestly, the Alberta Liberals should consider doing the same. Couldn't hurt them.
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06-06-2018, 01:07 PM
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#237
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14
Honestly, the Alberta Liberals should consider doing the same. Couldn't hurt them.
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Not only the Liberals but the NDP. I mean how out of place is Notley and her crew vs the rest of the NDP in the country.
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06-06-2018, 01:13 PM
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#238
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Norm!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14
Honestly, the Alberta Liberals should consider doing the same. Couldn't hurt them.
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The Alberta Liberals should stop being the Alberta Liberals and be something else, like the Alberta Party that distracts you with these cute kittens.
Or give themselves a cool name like The Rhino Party.
__________________
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
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06-06-2018, 01:15 PM
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#239
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Norm!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov
Not only the Liberals but the NDP. I mean how out of place is Notley and her crew vs the rest of the NDP in the country.
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Federally or Provincially
Well both. Except that while the Alberta NDP is definitely the NDP, they're not as crackpot crazy or outright dumb as the other NDP parties.
__________________
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
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06-06-2018, 05:24 PM
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#240
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Norm!
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What could be the final poll of the election
Ekos
PC: 39.1
NDP: 35.1
Liberal: 18.9
Green: 5.0
__________________
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
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