[Signing] Backlund re-signs. 6 years, AAV $5.35M

[GioforPM]

I agree that:

(a) calling anyone a nominee for a prize is inaccurate, since even the "finalists" aren't in any kind of run off, they are just the top vote getters;

(b) Backlund needs to be better at faceoffs and it would make his excellent defensive game even better;

(c) he may drop in play level before the end of this contract (though I don't think he plays a particularly punishing style on himself). Backlund is 28 (almost 29) and seems to keep himself in very good shape. Other top defensive centres have aged well. Bergeron is at the top of his game at 32. Kessler is still good at what he does at 33 (and he plays a more physical style). Hosea was effective at an old age. Will Backlund be the same? Who knows. But it's an OK risk IMO.

I think, however, the market is relevant on a resigning. I also think that you average out what he could get now and the potential drop in play, to get to an overall fair compensation.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Kesler is having a rough time of it at present and is constantly playing through injuries. Bergeron is probably the best two way forward in the history of the sport. Hard to compare. Not to say Backlund won't still be a very good player at 32, of course, and this is about as good as you get for a UFA 2C, even if he winds up as a 3C before all's said and done. UFAs just aren't cheap.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by New Era

I really wish you would have spent some time to put together a thoughtful post. I'll say it was because you were tired.



Okay, you completely missed the point. There is no doubt that Backlund is a better player RIGHT NOW. But what happens if Backlund takes the step backward that comes with age? What happens when Tkachuk moves on to another line where his skills may be better used? If Backlund falls back to a 30 point player like some have suggested, this is a boat anchor of a contract. Lets not kid ourselves here. Treliving just gave a $5M+ contract, for six seasons, to a guy who has 10 goals on the season. If that is the new standard, this team is in for a world of hurt. Backlund needs to be a 20G, 50P+ center for the next four or five seasons for this contract to make sense. I personally don't like the odds of that happening.



Yeah, no. In no way, shape or form, is Backlund elite, let alone elite of the elite. In. No. Way. Hyperbole doesn't make your case. Here's a look at Backlund's rankings in comparison to his peers at his position (252 players).

Goals: 86th.
Assists: 38th
Points: 53rd
+/-: 231st
PPG: 62nd
GWG: Tied for 82nd (1 goal)
Shots: 30th
Shooting%: 170th
Faceoff%: 133rd



He obliterates opponents each and every night? How is he a 231st out of 252 centers (just centers!) in +/- if he's oblitering the opposition each night? I know +/- isn't the greatest stat, but is no worse than the fancy stats which were dreamed up by a bunch of fans looking to pump the tires on their poorly performing team. I'm sorry, but stats just don't support your claims.

As I said earlier, I am happy to see Backlund signed. I think the Flames overpaid, and if Backlund doesn't maintain that 20G/50P pace this contract is going to start stinking pretty quick. If he falls back to 30 points, we're going to have a new whipping boy.

His plus/minus is due to shooting percentage variances.

The Flames shooting percentage when he's on the ice at 5 on 5 is 5.51% which is laughably bad.

The Flames save percentage when he's on the ice 5 on 5 is .904. Besides his linemates, the next worst is Lazar at 917 and no one else is below is 920.

So he's out there with goalies playing like Karri Ramo in net while everyone else has vintage Kipprusoff. That's going to hurt your +/-.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

His point production has be maintained in the 50 point range over the length of the contract. Any dip and Backlund will quickly become a liability and whipping boy for the fans here. Can you imagine a player scoring 30 points and getting $5M+ a season? That's like a guy scoring 25 points and getting paid $4.5M. We know how popular that guy is.

It isn't that cut and dried.

He is currently productive, and he does more than just produce. If you were to call him a top 5 shut down center he'd already have a 4M contract just for that role alone.

His production puts him in the 6.5 range on the open market, so this deal is what it is.

It's very good value for three years, and then likely a decline that Treliving is well aware of.

But it adds an important player to the window that the Flames are using to contend, and that's the right thing to do.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Fair, but unnecessary to point out. Anyone who refers to +/- to justify a view about a player's value can safely be ignored.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by New Era

What a player could get on the open market is irrelevant. The Flames have a budget, and they pay a player what they think he will bring to the team.

If you ignore what a player is worth on the open market, you'll soon find yourself short of enough players to field a contending team.

Players are predominately concerned with getting a fair wage based on their worth to all employers, just like pretty much everyone else in the world.

The employer who ignores that is eventually out of business.

GM's just can't decide to pay players what they want to.

[theinfinitejar]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Not a fan of this deal nor am I hater of Backlund, but if Backlund at 29 is worth $5.35m X 6 then I can't help wondering what Chucky will command next year?

To me and likely his agent as well he drives that 2nd line, leads the line in scoring X2 and grit X5.

Backlund at this number might make Tkachuk the highest paid Flame player

Chucky's gonna get what he's worth regardless what Backlund gets.

[Sylvanfan]

Given the deals coming off the books in the next two seasons I think Backlunds deal will be manageable.

Given that you have the likes of Monahan, Gaudreau, Hamilton at their price points for 3 more years this won't be a contract that "ruins" the Flames. If not Backlund....you're probably buying lesser value in Free Agency to use that money.

[flamesfever]

Thank heavens they signed him before the trade deadline. I believe his absence would have severely diminished our defensive capability, and have a negative affect on our team spirit, and ability.

I believe our GM managed to get him at a discount to his fair market value, and that his tendency to work hard to keep himself in shape will keep him playing as a very important part of our team throughout the term of his contract.

His signing reinforces my faith in our management, and hopes for the team going forward. The next step should be to put the letter "A" on his sweater. He has certainly earned it.

[Strange Brew]

This is what happens in the NHL. Guys get paid for a little longer than they should. It is true for almost every single player and every single team.

There was essentially no option here given the tenure of the current management team and the desire to compete now. I don’t mind overpaying a little for guys like Backlund as long as we start developing pipeline of players to excel at the bottom of the roster.

[Brad Marsh]

Originally Posted by chummer

Tell that to Giordano and Smith who are having amazing years. Backlund will be the same age when this contract expires.

Great deal.

Of course you will always find exceptions, but what you're contesting here is in fact the case for the majority of players in the league.

Time will tell for Backlund, and it's possible that he will maintain his high level of play for the majority of the contract, but the odds aren't in his side.

But I guess it's the risk/cost you take in order to have the player at the level he's at for the next 2-3 seasons.

[4X4]

I don't mind it at all. Yes, the final year or two will probably be a little Stajan-ey, but Backlund, like Stajan, is a rock on this team, and the first four years will be exactly what the Flames need. Our own, homegrown veteran. Hopefully it deters management from going out and buying more Brouwers.

Seems like a few posters are trying to predict the twilight years just so they can tell everyone they told them so. Thanks for the update. Players slow down. That's why they leverage their best years into contracts that keep them from getting NFL'd the second they lose a step.

[Bunk]

I like this contract a lot. Great AAV. The thing that makes the length palatable is the modified no trade in the back half of the contract. It’s not immovable for the whole duration.

[chummer]

^^From Treliving-

“What if you don’t sign him? How do you replace him? If you’re going to bet on somebody in terms of body and lifestyle, Mikael’s is the body and lifestyle you’re going to bet on. He’s in elite shape. He’s like Gio (Mark Giordano). He works at it. His lifestyle is such that it’s conducive to prolonging his career."

As he also said, there was a lot of "arm wrestling". One of Treliving's strength's as a GM is hammering out deals, I think this deal is a win.

[Huntingwhale]

Awesome contract. I'm not too worried about the term. Anything less and the cap hit is likely higher. And plenty of defensive C's in the league play well at age 34. People are worried about the last half of the contract? Sure he could post a strong, sharp decline at 32. But I'll take my chances that he actually maintains this current level of production. He has shown nothing that he is slowing down enough to be worried about it becoming an albatross of a contract.

IMO his offence is a bonus to what he brings to the team. Just look at what he did to win the game vs the Preds a couple nights ago. He played over 2+ mins to close out the game and help seal the win. You win with players like Backlund on your team. He was the team MVP last season. The fact that he is homegrown makes it even sweeter. 6 years is fine with me. He's still an NHL player in 6 years. I'm willing to make a pube bet on that.

[Zevo]

Why are people so sure he will decline by the end of his contract?? He will be the same age as Gio is this year and he is at the top of his game. By all accounts Backlund is as much a pro as Giordano and I'm sure has learned a lot from him.

Great contract is great and could be for the whole six years.

[Enoch Root]

I don't mind 6 years at all, but would have preferred a little lower AAV for that term.

And I don't mind $5.35M at all, though I would have preferred maybe a year shorter for that AAV.

So I guess that means it's a fair deal.

Having our 2nd line C locked up for well under $6M is great for the next couple years. Hopefully he will be our 3rd line C in years 3 and 4 (because we have another top 6 C), at which point $5.35M isn't bad. And for the final 2 years, the cap is probably pushing $90M by then.

All in all, a good deal. Not a super bargain or anything, but solid.

[Flash Walken]

Lower than I thought he'd get.

More term, though.

DOn't like a 6 year term with a cap hit over 5.

[ForeverFlameFan]

My take is that Backlund is slightly getting paid over what he is worth, but the cap will be going up. Besides, we're not signing him to score 60 points, we're signing him to put up 40-50 and solid defensive play against the top 6 of other teams. I'm happy that he is back, he has come a long way.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Brad Marsh

But Backlund has never demonstrated that he can be a consistent 50 point player. At 29, there is a chance that his best offensive years are behind him.

But even if there is more offensive upside in his game, how many more years do you realistically think it's going to continue to be there?

I agree with everything else. Today and for the next couple of years this is a great deal.

My only contention, is that when he is 33 or 34 or 35, and putting up fewer than 50 points, probably much fewer, and playing in a third line depth role, how excited will we all be about his $5.35M/yr?

I just think that should be taken into account when evaluating the contract today. And I appreciate that some of you have done that and still love it! (I just don't love it as much).

For the last 3 seasons combined, he has played at a 49.7 point pace. I am willing to call it 50 for the sake of argument.

That also ranks him 37th in the league among Cs over that time.

Of course his production will slow by the end of the contract. But we are getting him below market right now, and the cap will rise. That's the cost of doing business.