Quote:
Originally Posted by MattyC
Really no luck at all involved with having 2 franchise players that were passed on 3 times over at least by every team (including the Flames themselves)? If the Flames had some magic knowledge that these players would become what they are they would have taken them both with their 1st picks in those respective years. It's even referred to as "taking a chance" on these players.
Luck is very much a component, yes.
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Picking up on this point, unless people can actually predict the future (in which case why are you here posting instead of playing the real lottery every day) then why would you possibly go crazy over the precise order in which the Flames spin the roulette wheel otherwise known as the entry draft?!
http://www.thesportster.com/hockey/t...1980/?view=all
The NHL has numerous current examples of players contributing way past what their draft order would suggest and there are all kinds of 'busts' out there too.
For the entire existence of your franchise no matter where you place you could routinely be looking back with 20/20 hindsight and wishing you picked the guy that went after the guy you selected (or the guy that never even got drafted for that matter).
http://www.thesportster.com/hockey/t...n-nhl-history/
Making the 'right' pick
whenever it is your turn (with a healthy portion of luck) is just as, if not more, important than the order.
In 2011, the Flames apparently made this assessment of asset value:
1. Sven Baertchi (13) > John Gaudreau
2. Markus Granlund (45) > John Gaudreau
3. Tyler Wotherspoon (57) > John Gaudreau
4. Ok, fine, John Gaudreau (104)
Would ANYONE pick the same way for the Flames today?
Another way to look at it - the top 10 picks in 2011:
1 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (C)
2 Gabriel Landeskog (RW)
3 Jonathan Huberdeau (C)
4 Adam Larsson (D)
5 Ryan Strome (C)
6 Mika Zibanejad (C)
7 Mark Scheifele (C)
8 Sean Couturier (C)
9 Dougie Hamilton (D)
10 Jonas Brodin (D)
Some nice players there. But as an example, consider would you answer these two questions differently?
Question 1: "Will you take my #104 overall pick for your #3 pick this year?"
Question 2: "Will you trade Johnny Gaudreau for Jonathan Huberdeau?"
My point really is, we might have struck gold by dropping from 5th to 9th or whatever it ends up being. We won't know until we see if the player we get actually proves to be a valuable NHL player. The value of a player asset is not determined by the order in which he is selected.
As a draft pick itself (i.e. the actual right to pick), order may have comparative value because you could trade it to someone willing to give value for it. In the end though, once the right to pick has been exchanged for an asset, the asset picked 1st cannot be said to be worth more than the one picked 4th or the 104th due to chronological order (2011 example above pretty well proves that).
Cheering for losses or deliberate 'tanking' also presupposes that every early first rounder will pan out as predicted (including not be plagued by injuries beyond their control). I for one choose winning and the never quit culture over a bit better percentage chance to throw a dart at a dartboard earlier than the next guy.
