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Old 01-19-2016, 11:17 AM   #221
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I agree with everything, except for the bolded. Russell is a good, not great player, who should be traded for a good, but not great return, IMO. I don't see this as any great turning point for his tenure as GM.
Yah, I agree. What will define Treliving is the Hamilton deal and the Gio extension. I'd argue the development of Kylington/Andersson will define Treliving a lot more than whatever he decides to do with Russell.
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Old 01-19-2016, 11:29 AM   #222
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Stajan and Bollig are kind of opposites. Bollig's contract is fine cap-wise, but he can't play at all. Stajan's contract is awful, but he is actually serviceable and even effective in his role.
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Old 01-19-2016, 11:55 AM   #223
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Don't lump Matt Stajan in with that group. He sees top-flight competition from a very difficult position and performs rather well. Not even Monahan would be as effective in his role (or at least, not without losing effectiveness in his own role).

The rest are all replace-able though. Though we don't really have a dedicated facepuncher in Stockton if management insists on having Bollig.
Hunter Smith? They do have colton Orr down there although I guess he's on an AHL only deal (and never plays so not sure if he's hurt or what).
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Old 01-19-2016, 12:00 PM   #224
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Hunter Smith?
Hunter Smith is not a facepuncher. He just tries to be. His game is more Tomas Holmstrom or Patrick Maroon, and he needs to be in the AHL developing as a prospect not in the NHL any time soon.

Bryce Van Brabant might need to start getting fists on face though, if he wants an NHL shot.
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Old 01-19-2016, 12:04 PM   #225
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Russell is one of those decisions that will define Treliving's time as GM.
How could it be when the Hamilton trade had multiple components more valuable than Russell? So far that's his defining move and it looks like it'll work out long term to me.
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Old 01-19-2016, 12:05 PM   #226
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Hunter Smith is not a facepuncher. He just tries to be. His game is more Tomas Holmstrom or Patrick Maroon, and he needs to be in the AHL developing as a prospect not in the NHL any time soon.

Bryce Van Brabant might need to start getting fists on face though, if he wants an NHL shot.
Stockton does have the second most fights in the AHL. But you are right they don't really have any pure goons signed to NHL contracts.

Engelland would just have to cover the odd Bollig fight if you wanted that role.
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Old 01-19-2016, 12:20 PM   #227
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I think Russell could fetch two 2nd rounders at the deadline. I think his trade value may have eclipsed Hudler's now.
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Old 01-19-2016, 01:21 PM   #228
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How could it be when the Hamilton trade had multiple components more valuable than Russell? So far that's his defining move and it looks like it'll work out long term to me.
It is just so incredibly hard for Hamilton to work out. There are no other d-men playing #4 minutes on a .500 club getting paid 5.5M / year. He is in a category all by himself. He has to improve exponentially to work out.

Colton Prayko 22 6-5 226 19 pts in 44 games Team high +17. playing 19 minutes a night (#4 on the Blues) compares well with Hamilton expect he is getting paid 849K this year and next. He just has to maintain his current play for the next 2-4 years to work out.

It is not great management move paying a 22 year old more than anyone else will pay them based on potential. Otherwise the Oilers would be a successful franchise.
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Old 01-19-2016, 01:23 PM   #229
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It is just so incredibly hard for Hamilton to work out. There are no other d-men playing #4 minutes on a .500 club getting paid 5.5M / year. He is in a category all by himself. He has to improve exponentially to work out.

Colton Prayko 22 6-5 226 19 pts in 44 games Team high +17. playing 19 minutes a night (#4 on the Blues) compares well with Hamilton expect he is getting paid 849K this year and next. He just has to maintain his current play for the next 2-4 years to work out.

It is not great management move paying a 22 year old more than anyone else will pay them based on potential. Otherwise the Oilers would be a successful franchise.
Worst. Analysis. Ever
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Old 01-19-2016, 01:24 PM   #230
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It is just so incredibly hard for Hamilton to work out. There are no other d-men playing #4 minutes on a .500 club getting paid 5.5M / year. He is in a category all by himself. He has to improve exponentially to work out.

Colton Prayko 22 6-5 226 19 pts in 44 games Team high +17. playing 19 minutes a night (#4 on the Blues) compares well with Hamilton expect he is getting paid 849K this year and next. He just has to maintain his current play for the next 2-4 years to work out.

It is not great management move paying a 22 year old more than anyone else will pay them based on potential. Otherwise the Oilers would be a successful franchise.
Oh it's you bashing Dougie again?
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Old 01-19-2016, 01:26 PM   #231
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Worst. Analysis. Ever
Yep that might be an all time low
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Old 01-19-2016, 01:38 PM   #232
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Originally Posted by ricardodw View Post
It is just so incredibly hard for Hamilton to work out. There are no other d-men playing #4 minutes on a .500 club getting paid 5.5M / year. He is in a category all by himself. He has to improve exponentially to work out.

Colton Prayko 22 6-5 226 19 pts in 44 games Team high +17. playing 19 minutes a night (#4 on the Blues) compares well with Hamilton expect he is getting paid 849K this year and next. He just has to maintain his current play for the next 2-4 years to work out.

It is not great management move paying a 22 year old more than anyone else will pay them based on potential. Otherwise the Oilers would be a successful franchise.
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Old 01-19-2016, 01:53 PM   #233
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It is just so incredibly hard for Hamilton to work out. There are no other d-men playing #4 minutes on a .500 club getting paid 5.5M / year. He is in a category all by himself. He has to improve exponentially to work out.

Colton Prayko 22 6-5 226 19 pts in 44 games Team high +17. playing 19 minutes a night (#4 on the Blues) compares well with Hamilton expect he is getting paid 849K this year and next. He just has to maintain his current play for the next 2-4 years to work out.

It is not great management move paying a 22 year old more than anyone else will pay them based on potential. Otherwise the Oilers would be a successful franchise.
You made me choke on my lunch.. what a terrible analysis. You can't compare Parayko to Hamilton for starters because Parayko is on his first entry level contract.
It would be like comparing Johnny this year on his contract to RNH, Landeskog - or even Huberdeau and Zibanejad -> guys who are past their entry level deals even though they were all drafted in the same year.

Plus Parayko at his age 21 season was still playing in college and then in the AHL. He is a nice story and all but if he keeps this up, he will demand a large raise as an RFA as well.

Here, I can pull random stats too:

Hamilton had 42 points as a 21 year old defenseman. Let's look at defenseman at the same age.

Doughty - 40 points
Weber - 40 points
Keith - 26 points - with Norfolk in the AHL
Chara - 4 points in 23 games - in the AHL
Pietrangelo - 51 points
Subban - 38 points
Gio - 16 points in the AHL.

The point is getting 40 points in the NHL at age 21 is nothing to sneeze at - and more than justifies his contract at this stage given the NHL climate (in terms of offer sheets and lack of bridge contracts). You could argue that the Habs are now stuck with an insane contract with Subban because they could've given him the rumoured long term deal with a 6 mill aav when he was RFA but chose to give him a bridge contract instead.

Back on topic, I wouldn't be adverse to keeping Russell, but only if we can offload 2 of Wideman/Engelland/Smid. I suspect that it is not happening so we need to trade Russell to free up room to sign Johnny and Monahan to their long term deals. Plus you wouldn't want Russell's contract to handcuff you when it is time to extend Bennett as well because I suspect he won't get a bridge deal as well.

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Old 01-19-2016, 01:57 PM   #234
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I am a big believer in veteran leadership. And I also believe in not rushing the kids.

Having said that, I think that the leadership and coaching staff have successfully instilled a culture and work ethic now. I think the kids that are on the roster (Monahan, Gaudreau, Bennett, Ferland, Brodie) have learned from the vets and are on the right path.

I don't want to see all the vets run out of town, but I think that it is just about time to start the transition. It's time to start giving some of the young guys on the team more responsibility, and the guys in Stockton a chance.

I'm not saying 4 or 5 immediately. But it's time to move a couple guys at the deadline. And move a couple more next year. It's time to start the transition, to ask Monahan and Brodie and Gaudreau (and in another year or two, Bennett) to start to take over the room and say 'this is our team'.

You can't rush this sort of thing, and it would be folly to try.

But you also can't just wait forever - you have to keep challenging everyone, and push things forward.

I think Treliving has to send a message to the team at the deadline that the transition is starting. And ask the kids who has what it takes to step up.

I don't care whether it's Russell or Hudler or Jones or Wideman or whoever. But I think two guys should be moved, and the organization told why.
I think it's been this way for a while now. They've already been getting rid of veterans steadily over the last few years in favor of young kids finding a spot in the lineup. I believe that if Treliving really understood how close some of the prospects were when he came he would not have signed guys like Raymond and Engelland to fill out the roster. He would have taken his lumps with the young kids playing with the few really good veterans we had.

Anyways, just to remind everyone, this team has been jettisoning quite a few veterans and marginal players since the Iginla and Bouwmeester trades:

2013-14
Trades
Blake Comeau
Alex Tanguay
Cory Sarich
Tim Jackman
Lee Stempniak
Reto Berra
Roman Horak

UFA
Mike Cammalleri
Chris Butler
Shane O'Brien
Joey MacDonald
TJ Galiardi
Kevin Westgarth

2014-15
Trades
Curtis Glencross
Sven Baertschi
Corban Knight

UFA
Devin Setoguchi
Rafa Diaz
David Schlemko
Corey Potter
Brian McGrattan

2015-16
???-Does Paul Byron count?

I would expect a guy like David Jones to be moved, and Russell will be in that category if his demands are too high. More than likely Hudler will move on. Wideman will move if there are takers. I have a feeling Ramo will be re-signed for a couple years, but if anyone needs a depth goalie Hiller will be gone as well. There are 3-5 veterans right there that could be moved for decent value if the situation arises.

That first year after the Iginla trade we moved 13 guys that were veterans. The year after we moved 8, although some of them were just marginal prospects. That's 21 guys in 2 years. We've replaced some through trade and free agency, but it's hard to move many more veterans until the prospects start to show that they are going to steal a spot. Recently only Bennett and Ferland did it. Nobody else stepped up to the plate, and it looks like nobody else will any time soon. Deal veterans from a position of surplus, but make sure there is a solid succession plan in place otherwise you're forced to sign yet another marginal NHLer to be your organizational depth.
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Old 01-19-2016, 02:03 PM   #235
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We've replaced some through trade and free agency, but it's hard to move many more veterans until the prospects start to show that they are going to steal a spot. Recently only Bennett and Ferland did it. Nobody else stepped up to the plate, and it looks like nobody else will any time soon. Deal veterans from a position of surplus, but make sure there is a solid succession plan in place otherwise you're forced to sign yet another marginal NHLer to be your organizational depth.
It's hard to for prospects to show they are going to steal a spot when even a 27 year old KHL/Euro League veteran can't even get into a game. That's more than a surplus. It's not like the farm team is bad either, when they get decent goaltending they win by big margins.

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Old 01-19-2016, 02:09 PM   #236
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It's hard to for prospects to show they are going to steal a spot when even a 27 year old KHL/Euro League veteran can't even get into a game.
He'll get a chance, relax.

Problem is salary for our 5-7 d-men. It's hard to move any of them. Not to mention that we have been relatively healthy on the blue line this year. We've only been down 1 d-man at a time, and only Brodie's injury was prolonged enough to warrant a call up...but oh yeah, let's completely forget that Kulak earned an opportunity to play AHEAD OF Nakladal, did so, and was returned to the AHL because he wasn't measuring up after a while.

The NHL is a tough league to play defense. I'm all for giving someone else an opportunity, but I don't want to throw everyone we have out just because they aren't the absolute best player ever. If you can play 20 minutes a night competently, you're pretty valuable.
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Old 01-19-2016, 02:42 PM   #237
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He'll get a chance, relax.

Problem is salary for our 5-7 d-men. It's hard to move any of them. Not to mention that we have been relatively healthy on the blue line this year. We've only been down 1 d-man at a time, and only Brodie's injury was prolonged enough to warrant a call up...but oh yeah, let's completely forget that Kulak earned an opportunity to play AHEAD OF Nakladal, did so, and was returned to the AHL because he wasn't measuring up after a while.

The NHL is a tough league to play defense. I'm all for giving someone else an opportunity, but I don't want to throw everyone we have out just because they aren't the absolute best player ever. If you can play 20 minutes a night competently, you're pretty valuable.
Or Smid/Brodie got healthy and they didn't have room for any other young guys to come in.
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Old 01-19-2016, 02:46 PM   #238
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Or Smid/Brodie got healthy and they didn't have room for any other young guys to come in.
No, I don't think Kulak would have stayed in any case. He's at the level of an injury call up right now, not a guy that deserved to be on the roster ahead of a veteran.
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Old 01-19-2016, 02:52 PM   #239
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No, I don't think Kulak would have stayed in any case. He's at the level of an injury call up right now, not a guy that deserved to be on the roster ahead of a veteran.
Why are we so worried about keeping together a team that's 26th in the league? Subbing Russell for X isn't going to move the needle.
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Old 01-19-2016, 02:53 PM   #240
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Why are we so worried about keeping together a team that's 26th in the league? Subbing Russell for X isn't going to move the needle.
Uh, because the next step might be 30th. We don't put out a roster to tank. We aren't Edmonton.

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