Lets Talk About Mr. Backlund

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Psytic

It's more an adress to the posters that want to back the truck up for every flames player and start a fricking thread.

Paying Backlund fair value is hardly backing up the truck for every Flames player.

We have 1.5 seasons until Backlund is UFA. Assuming Bennett/Goaltender/Versteeg/Ferland put us at the cap ceiling in 2017, in 2018:

- Tkachuk will be entering year 3 of his ELC and some contingency obviously needs to be in place for his first RFA

- Backlund's own 3.75M comes off the books, so any raise he gets is just that, a raise, not a brand new contract

- Stajan, and Bouma will also be UFA opening up cap space. That's about 5.325 million in extra cap space.

- Raymond's $1.05M buyout cap hit is also complete

- Jankowski will be ready to play NHL minutes at a discount. I'd argue he's ready now to play top 9, and is only buried there because of the curious case of Stajan, Monahan and Bennett.

- Mangiapane, Klimchuk, Poirier, maybe even Lomberg or Dube, will replace the 2.2 million dollar Bouma.

- Brouwer will be on year 3. We'll probably have to suck it up miserably through the final two years of his deal, but losing Backlund at the expense of Brouwer would suck far, far more than keeping Backlund and not signing a better RW than Brouwer.

Not extending Backlund to a fair value contract would be pretty idiotic. We don't know if Monahan or Bennett will ever reach Backlund's two-way level.

[MarkGio]

I'm hesitant to pay Backlund alot. Before this year Backlund was only mediocre. Good possession numbers, but underwhelming everywhere else. You don't pay top dollar for possession numbers, you pay top dollar for points.

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Paying Backlund fair value is hardly backing up the truck for every Flames player.

We have 1.5 seasons until Backlund is UFA. Assuming Bennett/Goaltender/Ferland put us at the cap ceiling in 2017, in 2018:

- Tkachuk will be entering year 3 of his ELC and some contingency obviously needs to be in place for his first RFA

- Backlund's own 3.75M comes off the books, so any raise he gets is just that, a raise, not a brand new contract

- Stajan, and Bouma will also be UFA opening up cap space. That's about 5.3 million in extra cap space.

- Jankowski will be ready to play NHL minutes at a discount. I'd argue he's ready now to play top 9, and is only buried there because of the curious case of Stajan, Monahan and Bennett.

- Mangiapane, Klimchuk, Poirier, maybe even Lomberg or Dube, will replace the 2.2 million dollar Bouma.

- Raymond's $1.05M buyout is also out

- Brouwer will be on year 3. We'll probably have to suck it up miserably through the final two years of his deal, but losing Backlund at the expense of Brouwer would suck far, far more than keeping Backlund and not signing a better RW than Brouwer.

Your saying you want to find a way to keep the exact same wild card level team with out any upgrades on RW or Top 4 D unless one of our guys on the farm suddenly steps up miraculously in their first seasons? What is fair market value for Backlund?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Psytic

Your saying you want to find a way to keep the exact same wild card level team with out any upgrades on RW or Top 4 D

Tkachuk is 19. Monahan is 22. Bennett is 20. Gaudreau is 23. Hamilton is 23. Ferland is 24. Kulak is 22. These kids are only going to get more polished, more responsible, quicker, stronger and better at hanging on to the puck. This team's long term success rides on these guys while Frolik, Giordano, Backlund, Brodie will continue to hold the fort in their own respect.

You are correct, we do need a fourth top 4D. And if we could ""lose"" Brouwer to expansion, it's even viable we could add someone to our top 4D. It's a probably most plausible to promote from within a guy like Kulak or Andersson however. We have a lot of money tied up in our top 3 D for a reason, because at least one of them is capable of anchoring a 2nd pair with a less-than-spectacular #4.

One thing's for sure, filling holes by opening new ones or trading young players is not the solution.

unless one of our guys on the farm suddenly steps up miraculously in their first seasons?

Our farm is probably the best it has ever been, at least since the late 80s. There is nothing miraculous about kids like Klimchuk having great first seasons. It's the norm in the modern NHL to fill out your non-core pieces internally. Look at the Blue Jackets, the Leafs, the Penguins, Blackhawks.

What is fair market value for Backlund?

Frans Nielson seems an apt comprable.

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Tkachuk is 19. Monahan is 22. Bennett is 20. Gaudreau is 23. Hamilton is 23. Ferland is 24. Kulak is 22. These kids are only going to get more polished, more responsible, quicker, stronger and better at hanging on to the puck. This team's long term success rides on these guys while Frolik, Giordano, Backlund, Brodie will continue to hold the fort in their own respect.

You are correct, we do need a fourth top 4D. And if we could ""lose"" Brouwer to expansion, it's even viable we could add someone to our top 4D. It's a probably most plausible to promote from within a guy like Kulak or Andersson however. We have a lot of money tied up in our top 3 D for a reason, because at least one of them is capable of anchoring a 2nd pair with a less-than-spectacular #4.

One thing's for sure, filling holes by opening new ones or trading young players is not the solution.



Our farm is probably the best it has ever been, at least since the late 80s. There is nothing miraculous about kids like Klimchuk having great first seasons. It's the norm in the modern NHL to fill out your non-core pieces internally. Look at the Blue Jackets, the Leafs, the Penguins, Blackhawks.



Frans Nielson seems an apt comprable.

Not sure why that's in bold I never said to trade any young players infact I've been saying the exact opposite. I'm actually asking what you think a reasonable contract is for Backlund an oft injured player that has put it together for a little over a season. He is one of my favourite players but I still would be hesitant to give him that much. I think we should sign him for less than 5 mill and from what I understand you think he deserves more. You believe this because you think we don't need any extra cap because the farm will fill our hole on top 4 d and RW. I guess I'm skeptical.

Frans Nielsen is less injury prone and has put up over 50 points before. He also moved onto another team since he was drafted. I think we should be able to get Backlund for less considering we stuck with him for years he's had a history of injuries and has really only put it together in the last year.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Psytic

I'm actually asking what you think a reasonable contract is for Backlund an oft injured player that has put it together for a little over a season. He is one of my favourite players but I still would be hesitant to give him that much.

What body part of Backlund is oft-injured? Is it a recurring injury or has he simply had unrelated injuries over his career?

Fact is Backlund has missed a whopping 36 games over the last three and a half seasons, most to a training camp abdominal tear that has been replaced by a metal plate. Any player who kills penalties and battles as hard as he does is bound to get nicked up every now and then. Brouwer being a so-called iron man didn't stop his finger from breaking on a fluke injury.

Injuries are a problem when it's the same injury getting re-aggravated. That's not the case for Backlund or Giordano.

I think we should sign him for less than 5 mill and from what I understand you think he deserves more.

I think getting him extended through age ~33 is worth whatever premium we have to pay. But if we get him for under 5.0 million I still prefer that. But if it takes 5.25 or 5.4 million, Backlund is worth that too.

You believe this because you think we don't need any extra cap because the farm will fill our hole on top 4 d and RW. I guess I'm skeptical.

I do believe we need more extra cap to fill holes, but Backlund is not extra cap. He is crucial cap.

Extra cap is guys like Wideman, Brouwer, Engelland, Bouma, Stajan, Raymond Buyout, Bollig. That's "extra" cap. That's money that should go to a RW and a #4D.

Regardless, the cap applies to all 30 teams in the league. Everybody has holes they can't fill because of the cap. And our farm is hardly average, it's probably the best farm in the league right now, and our prospect pool is trails only to a team like the Flyers who have simply acquired blue chippers for nothing *cough*PhillipeMyers*cough*

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

What body part of Backlund is oft-injured? Is it a recurring injury or has he simply had unrelated injuries over his career?

Fact is Backlund has missed a whopping 36 games over the last three and a half seasons, most to a training camp abdominal tear that has been replaced by a metal plate. Any player who kills penalties and battles as hard as he does is bound to get nicked up every now and then. Brouwer being a so-called iron man didn't stop his finger from breaking on a fluke injury.

Injuries are a problem when it's the same injury getting re-aggravated. That's not the case for Backlund or Giordano.



I think getting him extended through age ~33 is worth whatever premium we have to pay. But if we get him for under 5.0 million I still prefer that. But if it takes 5.25 or 5.4 million, Backlund is worth that too.



I do believe we need more extra cap to fill holes, but Backlund is not extra cap. He is crucial cap.

Extra cap is guys like Wideman, Brouwer, Engelland, Bouma, Stajan, Raymond Buyout, Bollig. That's "extra" cap. That's money that should go to a RW and a #4D.

Regardless, the cap applies to all 30 teams in the league. Everybody has holes they can't fill because of the cap. And our farm is hardly average, it's probably the best farm in the league right now, and our prospect pool is trails only to a team like the Flyers who have simply acquired blue chippers for nothing *cough*PhillipeMyers*cough*

Ahh well agree to disagree I guess. We are debating over about 600k-800k anyway

[jayswin]

Plus, rightly or wrongly points mean so much in forward worth so I'd imagine we're going to get a "discount" on Backlund unless he puts up ungodly numbers. He'll likely sign in the $4.5-$5.0 AAV range and we should be happy with it.

[Strange Brew]

Losing Backlund creates a huge hole on this team. Right now, he and Stajan make about $7 million combined. We should have Backlund and a young 4th line center combined for less than that in the future.

[Heavy Jack]

4 or 5 years, 5.25 is fair IMO, bit of a hometown discount but he knows what he is here now and the team is growing into quite a good young core. He brings so much to the table now, plays in all situations, faceoff guy, shutdown center, scores, is a playmaker of sorts, is appearing to be more physical this year which is a bonus. Lots to like and he just keeps getting better - sign him now or a guy like Babcock will be calling for this guy and saying he's worth the asking rate which could be as high as 6 mill per IMO on the open market.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

I'm hesitant to pay Backlund alot. Before this year Backlund was only mediocre. Good possession numbers, but underwhelming everywhere else. You don't pay top dollar for possession numbers, you pay top dollar for points.

This is completely false.

[boogerz]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

I'm hesitant to pay Backlund alot. Before this year Backlund was only mediocre. Good possession numbers, but underwhelming everywhere else. You don't pay top dollar for possession numbers, you pay top dollar for points.

Ignoring the intangibles and looking solely at points, Backlund's comparables are in the $4.5-5.5 million/year range

Vincent Trocheck - $4.8mm
Brayden Schenn - $5.1mm
Marcus Johansson - $4.58mm
Sam Gagner - $5.0mm (the three years prior to this year)
Frans Neilsen - $5.25mm
Nazeem Kadri - $4.5mm

Backlund's getting paid this summer, whether it's by the Flames or someone else. Hopefully it's the Flames

[FBI]

Backlund is leading us in goals now. Wowsa.

[Matty81]

Great player and mr. Calgary flame attitude wise, have heard he is really passionate about the flames and seems like the type of guy who will be a big fan of the team long after he is done playing. Lots of prime years left at 28 when he is a ufa next year. No problem seeing him get 5x5.5 if that is what it takes... The whole contract will be productive. Should be wearing an "a" instead of Brouwer.

[Hack&Lube]

Backlund is tied w/Gio for leader in games played in 2016 (including the tail of last season). No one else has played more games than the two of them. I remember all those years where Backlund would be gone for a major injury, etc.

Other stats for 2016.

2016 POINTS-PER-GAME LEADERS

1. Johnny Gaudreau - 0.91

2. Sean Monahan - 0.70

3. Mikael Backlund - 0.66

4. Dougie Hamilton, Matthew Tkachuk, Kris Versteeg - 0.62

5. Mark Giordano - 0.60


2016 GOALS-PER-GAME LEADERS

1. Mikael Backlund - 0.33

2. Johnny Gaudreau - 0.31

3. Sean Monahan - 0.30

4. Sam Bennett - 0.28

5. Kris Versteeg - 0.23

https://www.nhl.com/flames/news/by-t...16/c-285239226

[dissentowner]

I think we also need to see how Janko develops. I love Backlund's game but it might be worth trading him when the time comes to address other needs if Jankowski develops into a very good C.

[Heavy Jack]

Honestly when Janko is ready I'm almost tempted to swing Bennett to the wing knowing he can always jump into center if the need is there - injuries, switch things up ect. - you can never have too much center depth and having Monahan/Backlund/Bennett/Janko as our big time options is a very good 'problem' to have with generally easy solutions like moving Benny to the wing.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

Honestly when Janko is ready I'm almost tempted to swing Bennett to the wing knowing he can always jump into center if the need is there - injuries, switch things up ect. - you can never have too much center depth and having Monahan/Backlund/Bennett/Janko as our big time options is a very good 'problem' to have with generally easy solutions like moving Benny to the wing.

This is what I want to see as well.

Janko is not going to be ready to replace Backlund with what Backlund is doing right now. We still need that centreman who is going to shut down the oppositions top lines. I don't see either Monahan or Bennett filling in that role and honestly Bennett looks better at wing anyways. He's able to focus more on offense and forechecking which is what we need from him.

Next season (or after the trade deadline) I'd like to see:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Bennett
Tkachuk - Backlund - Frolik
Ferland - Jankowski - Brouwer
Hathaway - Bouma - Chiasson

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

This is what I want to see as well.

Janko is not going to be ready to replace Backlund with what Backlund is doing right now. We still need that centreman who is going to shut down the oppositions top lines. I don't see either Monahan or Bennett filling in that role and honestly Bennett looks better at wing anyways. He's able to focus more on offense and forechecking which is what we need from him.

Next season (or after the trade deadline) I'd like to see:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Bennett
Tkachuk - Backlund - Frolik
Ferland - Jankowski - Brouwer
Hathaway - Bouma - Chiasson

I am intrigued by that lineup but it supposes Jankowski is ready. Have yet to see that at the NHL level.

But you left out Stajan who's not going anywhere until his contract expires.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I am intrigued by that lineup but it supposes Jankowski is ready. Have yet to see that at the NHL level.

But you left out Stajan who's not going anywhere until his contract expires.

Well, there's an outside chance he could still be bought out in June if management feels it's really the direction they really want to go in despite his much better play this year as opposed to last year.

Granted there's a lot less of a reason to buy him out given that he's played quite well this year, but I still wouldn't completely rule it out even considering he's played well.