2015-2016 Blue Jays Off-Season Thread

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

So anyone watch the Shapiro interview with Stephen Brunt followed up by Stephen Brunt appearing on Tim and Sid?

Pretty much confirms what the "pessimists" in this thread are saying. Will go with what they got for next year and then there will be a fundamental change in organizational philosophy. Shapiro flat out says that next year is the window closing.

Hard not to be a pessimist when you've followed a team for 30+ years and they continually bull the same BS.

Frankly I imagine you are spinning this in the most negative light possible.

And does anyone disagree that the window does start to close next year? If only because Jose and EE both become free agents.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by kmart

The reason I see Tulo being traded is because Goins finished off the season very strong. He's not a bluechip prospect or anything of that sort, but he's a left handed bat in a line up full of righties, so as an everyday player he can be a contributor. His defence is top notch as well, so sitting him as the fourth infielder wouldn't make much sense. He's an above average player that should be playing IMO.

He's not a prospect at all - he'll be 28 by the start of next season. And contrary to popular belief, Goins didn't finish the season that strong. He had an awesome August (.314/.442/.443). He finished with a pedestrian September (.263/.324/.374) and awful postseason (.139/.162/.250). Essentially, after August he was hitting pretty close to his usual self.

I just don't understand the appeal of trading Tulo. First off, he's the best shortstop in baseball when healthy. More importantly, the intent is to replace him with a Ryan Goins because he had one good month in his MLB career and Devon Travis because he had two good months in his MLB career. That is a massive risk.

I really don't see the issue with rolling with Tulo/Travis and having Goins back up. Tulo likely only plays 125-130 games or so based on history and having a solid back-up like Goins will only help give Tulo plenty of off days and keep him healthier long term. Travis is coming off an injured plagued year and has never played more than 100 games in a season (once and his next highest was 77 games). Expecting the guy to come back and play 150 games next year is just going to wear him down for the playoffs (assuming he stays healthy).

The best plan is to use Goins as a back-up and he likely starts 70 games anyways.

[The Big Chill]

I don't get the calls for trading EE or Jose for pitching.

For one thing, making us weaker in one area to make us stronger in another isn't going to make us a better team, unless we have a player waiting to replace their production, which we don't.

Secondly, the return for EE would be very minimal, at least in terms of current MLB level talent. An expiring EE does not get you an ace, and certainly does not get you an ace with any amount of team control. Trading EE would only make sense if we are blowing the whole thing up and getting prospects in return for all of our expiring contracts, or if a team lost their mind and we're making a dumb move like in the JD trade.

[dustyanddaflames]

Yes two good months from Ryan Goins does not negate the black hole he was at the plate previously. He is the perfect infield glove coming off the bench - by not stretch of the imagination would I give Goins the reigns for a full season, especially with an unproven Devon Travis presumably playing full time at second base. Goins did make some adjustments at the plate, drew way more walks, and had some very clutch hits down the stretch. But he was okay in September and terrible in October.

As for Travis - FanGraphs has a very good article on him right now. I knew he liked to go the other way, but his spray chart is something else. Add to that, all 4 fly balls that he hit to his pull side, left the ball park. Worth the read if you have a minute or two.

[adc]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

I don't get the calls for trading EE or Jose for pitching.

For one thing, making us weaker in one area to make us stronger in another isn't going to make us a better team, unless we have a player waiting to replace their production, which we don't.

Secondly, the return for EE would be very minimal, at least in terms of current MLB level talent. An expiring EE does not get you an ace, and certainly does not get you an ace with any amount of team control. Trading EE would only make sense if we are blowing the whole thing up and getting prospects in return for all of our expiring contracts, or if a team lost their mind and we're making a dumb move like in the JD trade.

Wouldn't the thinking be the downgrade from EE to say Colabello would be negated by the upgrade from Hutchinson to pitcher X?

I don't think trading EE or Bautista for pitching makes much sense because I think it would be hard to find a team that would be interested in them that would also be giving up a pitcher that would have interest to the Jays.

Last year the Cardinals traded Shelby Miller for Jason Heyward so maybe the Jays could look for a deal like that but I think Heyward is roughly 25 so he likely has more interest to teams than EE or Bautista.

[adc]

The only reason that I could see moving Tulo is that he has an issue with being in Toronto. I think most of his comments in interviews were more to do with being dealt than being dealt to Toronto specifically but if there is an issue and they think it did and/or will affect his play then you move him now.

[The Big Chill]

Originally Posted by adc

Wouldn't the thinking be the downgrade from EE to say Colabello would be negated by the upgrade from Hutchinson to pitcher X?

Yes, but I'm saying that in order to make the team better, we would need to add a pitcher that does more then just negate the downgrade elsewhere. Negating the downgrade would make the team more balanced, but not any better. So the incoming pitcher would need to be a significant upgrade to the rotation, and an expiring EE isn't going to get that type of return.

My feelings about the direction of this team are about the same as they were last season up until the big trades. We either need to go all in and commit to making this team better for the short term (preferably by spending in FA, rather than giving up prospects), or we need to sell off our expiring assets and try to rebuild with some high-end prospects. I'd be OK with either direction as long as we are fully committed to the choice. Hovering in the middle is the worst place to be.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

Yes, but I'm saying that in order to make the team better, we would need to add a pitcher that does more then just negate the downgrade elsewhere. Negating the downgrade would make the team more balanced, but not any better. So the incoming pitcher would need to be a significant upgrade to the rotation, and an expiring EE isn't going to get that type of return.

My feelings about the direction of this team are about the same as they were last season up until the big trades. We either need to go all in and commit to making this team better for the short term (preferably by spending in FA, rather than giving up prospects), or we need to sell off our expiring assets and try to rebuild with some high-end prospects. I'd be OK with either direction as long as we are fully committed to the choice. Hovering in the middle is the worst place to be.

Your logic is correct, but we are dealing with Rogers here. Watch the interview with Shapiro and Brunt, and than watch Brunt go on Sid and Tim to discuss it afterwards. I believe they are both on sportsnet.

Brunt's interview on Sid and Tim is quite telling. He essentially says not to expect the Jays to sign any pitching and go with that they got. In Shapiro's eye's this is the last year (and I think we can all agree that is the definitely the case), and he will not be adding 6-7 year pitching contracts when the meat of the order is gone after next season. So as usual, the Jays are not doing anything. They aren't adding to win now and they aren't subtracting to build the future. They'll ride the success of last year into this year, sop up all the increased revenue they can, and consider moving Bautista/EE/Tulo/Dickey/Martin if things go south prior to August.

Brunt even mentions moving Donaldson on the interview. I almost threw up in my mouth. I don't think that will happen, but when a well respected journalist implies that anything is possible, it really doesn't make a fan of the team feel too great.

[kmart]

I think we can agree that Goins is not half the player Tulo is, so I'll play deveils advocate from another prospective. Looking around online, the Blue Jays will have about 26 million in budget. That leaves room for one, maybe two pitchers with an awful bullpen. With Tulo you can remove 20 million off the payroll and add a pitcher through trade and allocate more money to the pitchers. The lineup was already deadly before the Tulo trade, it'll still be deadly without Tulo. He's still a premier shortstop on a contract that provides control, so he does have value.

There is no way you're trading away EE and Bautista for quality pitching and if you trade them for prospects the cap space provided from trading them won't bring the Blue Jay's much in terms of free agents.

Saying that I don't think anyone in the line up will be traded, but if a player were to get traded I'd place my bets on Tulo.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by JayP

He's not a prospect at all - he'll be 28 by the start of next season. And contrary to popular belief, Goins didn't finish the season that strong. He had an awesome August (.314/.442/.443). He finished with a pedestrian September (.263/.324/.374) and awful postseason (.139/.162/.250). Essentially, after August he was hitting pretty close to his usual self.

I just don't understand the appeal of trading Tulo. First off, he's the best shortstop in baseball when healthy. More importantly, the intent is to replace him with a Ryan Goins because he had one good month in his MLB career and Devon Travis because he had two good months in his MLB career. That is a massive risk.

I really don't see the issue with rolling with Tulo/Travis and having Goins back up. Tulo likely only plays 125-130 games or so based on history and having a solid back-up like Goins will only help give Tulo plenty of off days and keep him healthier long term. Travis is coming off an injured plagued year and has never played more than 100 games in a season (once and his next highest was 77 games). Expecting the guy to come back and play 150 games next year is just going to wear him down for the playoffs (assuming he stays healthy).

The best plan is to use Goins as a back-up and he likely starts 70 games anyways.

I don't think any Jays fans see an appeal to trading Tulo, but they see his contract, know what needs to be done this year to win (pitching) and realize Rogers isn't going to increase the budget to meet that need.

I think Jays fans are just adding 2 and 2 together here. Rogers is simply not going to pay Tulo 20M a year until 2022 when the team has entered a complete rebuild. If they don't move Tulo now, they will in the future whether be of their volition or Tulo demanding out because he's not going to sit in the pinnacle of his career on a rebuild either. He already spent years on a dwindling team in Colorado.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Frankly I imagine you are spinning this in the most negative light possible.

And does anyone disagree that the window does start to close next year? If only because Jose and EE both become free agents.

I'm not spinning anything in a negative light all. Everything I say is based on the past actions of Jays management and Rogers over two decades.

The problem is, there's a bunch of people that have now found the Jays again, had a great run to amp them up, and seem to think this is the norm and want to bury their head in the sand when people who've followed the team for years give some perspective as to what has historically occurred.

Sure what I'm saying is negative, but certainly isn't a "spin". Here's what I've harped on over the past month or so. Most of which has come pretty close to true (unfortunately).


- Giving up home advantage in the playoffs was ridiculous given the Jays stats on the road versus home, and shutting the team down early was a bad mistake....... Well it took 3 games for the Jays to wake up against Texas, and not having home advantage cost them dearly against KC. Now I don't think they would have beaten KC regardless, but being the visiting team surely put them behind the 8 ball.

- Gibbons, AA, or both should lose their job over the way the end of the season was handled...... I probably overreacted with AA, but I stand by the fact that Gibbons should have lost his job (he would have had they lost to Texas). In fact, the silver lining of Shapiro was that I figured we would be rid of Gibbons. Unfortunately that is not going to be the case. They'll wait until 2017 for that.

- After seeing AA's end of the year conference, I said I didn't feel he was going to re-up with Toronto because he wouldn't work under Shapiro and wasn't happy with likely a shrinking Budget over the next few years (gave a snarky remark about having to ask someone above his pay grade on budget at the press conference). Multiple posters said I was reading more into that than I should and was being negative....... It appears I was quite correct on that front, and fully stand by the comment that this debacle will further damage the bad reputation the Jays already have around the league.

- People were talking about resigning Price and Estrada and bolstering a couple holes in the lineup, and I said I doubt this given how cheap Rogers is and their propensity to not reinvest profits into the baseball club...... Can't be right or wrong on that yet, but watch Brunt's interview with Tim and Sid and read between the lines. This team will be nowhere near the top ten in the league on payroll once 2017 rolls around. They won't be reallocating the money they save when Bautista and Edwin leave

Call me negative all you want, but i'm not spinning anything.

[kmart]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

- Giving up home advantage in the playoffs was ridiculous given the Jays stats on the road versus home, and shutting the team down early was a bad mistake....... Well it took 3 games for the Jays to wake up against Texas, and not having home advantage cost them dearly against KC. Now I don't think they would have beaten KC regardless, but being the visiting team surely put them behind the 8 ball..

Blue Jays were 91-65 and the Royals were 90-66 with six games remaining. IIRC the Blue Jay's clinched the AL east in the first game of a double header and didn't player their starters in the last game and the game after. Well usually when there are double headers you don't player your starters in the second game. Secondly the last game in the series was a rainout, I don't even play Gibbons for not letting his players play, that is just calling for injuries for a team that had everything to lose. The series against the Rays they tried to win, they just lost to some really good pitching. You're spinning it as if they didn't even bother trying after they clinched the AL East, of course they tried.

- Gibbons, AA, or both should lose their job over the way the end of the season was handled...... I probably overreacted with AA, but I stand by the fact that Gibbons should have lost his job (he would have had they lost to Texas). In fact, the silver lining of Shapiro was that I figured we would be rid of Gibbons. Unfortunately that is not going to be the case. They'll wait until 2017 for that.

Why should they lose their jobs again? They were AL East champs, doesn't speak of the need to be fired to me. They weren't world series champs, but they certainly weren't unsuccessful.

- After seeing AA's end of the year conference, I said I didn't feel he was going to re-up with Toronto because he wouldn't work under Shapiro and wasn't happy with likely a shrinking Budget over the next few years (gave a snarky remark about having to ask someone above his pay grade on budget at the press conference). Multiple posters said I was reading more into that than I should and was being negative....... It appears I was quite correct on that front, and fully stand by the comment that this debacle will further damage the bad reputation the Jays already have around the league.

The Blue Jays are a top 10 team in payroll and they have been for the last 3 years. In fact how is it not impressive that Rogers is letting the Blue Jays keep their payroll with a dropping Canadian dollar, bad reputation or not.

- People were talking about resigning Price and Estrada and bolstering a couple holes in the lineup, and I said I doubt this given how cheap Rogers is and their propensity to not reinvest profits into the baseball club...... Can't be right or wrong on that yet, but watch Brunt's interview with Tim and Sid and read between the lines. This team will be nowhere near the top ten in the league on payroll once 2017 rolls around. They won't be reallocating the money they save when Bautista and Edwin leave

I don't see any indication that they will decrease their spending on payroll this. Brunt was just mentioning that their window is small, which it is. Yeah once 2017 rolls around they might spend less if Bautista or Encarnacion are gone, I don't see why that is a bad thing, why would you spend cash in a year where your top sluggers are gone? Theres no point in spending cash when you know you're losing. But thats 2017, which is a year from now. I'll enjoy this next season with the Blue Jays being top contenders.

[Caged Great]

For me, in free agency my targets for starters would be

#1 Jordan Zimmerman
#2 Hisashi Iwakuma
#3 Scott Kazmir
#4 John Lackey (Barf)
#5 Brett Anderson
#6 Marco Estrada

I would also not be opposed to backing up the brinks truck for Heyward if the Jays could then flip Jose for a starter. Also would not be opposed to a 5/100 for Chris Davis either.

Signing Mark Lowe should also be a priority. A 2/8 deal should get it done. He was pretty good and if the Jays decide to move one of the other late inning guys to the rotation, they will need someone to replace them.

[TheAlpineOracle]

nm

[TheAlpineOracle]

- You will never get me to believe the Jays made any effort to win in Tampa. They started Buerhle on like one day's rest.

- Gibbons is not a good Manager. In his latest tenure he is under .500 right up until July Of this year when he was handed the keys to an all star team. He under achieved for two and half years. His game management is terrible, and leaning on his gut instead of looking at the stats costs the Jays all the time. He should have been gone before this season even started. Had they lost to Texas, he would have been canned.

- Are you really suggesting Jays fans should be grateful Rogers is keeping the same payroll? Both Rogers and the Jays are hedged on fx so it's not as big of deal as you think, and even if they weren't, these guys made a boatload of money on this run and aren't reinvesting a penny of in back in to the team which is the problem with the Jays in the first place.

- they aren't going to reduce payrolll, but they aren't going to be a contender if they don't increase it They desperately need pitching and don't have a single Prospect left to be renters at the deadline. Brunt flat out said they aren't going to be signing any pitchers when they fully intend on rebuilding in 2017. They are essentially wasting 2016 by keeping the status quo. I'm not even going to get into my thoughts on rebuilding. In a market the size of Toronto (well Canada), this team should be restocking through free agency not rebuilding. Even with Bautista and Edwin gone, they still have pillar, Donaldson, Martin, Tulo, and a Travis to build around.

- the general concensus among Jays fans was that they showed Rogers what they are capable of when They commit to fielding a winning team, this would change Rogers opinion on the team. Well it looks like that isn't the case, Rogers gonna do what Rogers gonna do.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

I'm not spinning anything in a negative light all. Everything I say is based on the past actions of Jays management and Rogers over two decades.

The problem is, there's a bunch of people that have now found the Jays again, had a great run to amp them up, and seem to think this is the norm and want to bury their head in the sand when people who've followed the team for years give some perspective as to what has historically occurred.

Sure what I'm saying is negative, but certainly isn't a "spin". Here's what I've harped on over the past month or so. Most of which has come pretty close to true (unfortunately).


- Giving up home advantage in the playoffs was ridiculous given the Jays stats on the road versus home, and shutting the team down early was a bad mistake....... Well it took 3 games for the Jays to wake up against Texas, and not having home advantage cost them dearly against KC. Now I don't think they would have beaten KC regardless, but being the visiting team surely put them behind the 8 ball.

- Gibbons, AA, or both should lose their job over the way the end of the season was handled...... I probably overreacted with AA, but I stand by the fact that Gibbons should have lost his job (he would have had they lost to Texas). In fact, the silver lining of Shapiro was that I figured we would be rid of Gibbons. Unfortunately that is not going to be the case. They'll wait until 2017 for that.

- After seeing AA's end of the year conference, I said I didn't feel he was going to re-up with Toronto because he wouldn't work under Shapiro and wasn't happy with likely a shrinking Budget over the next few years (gave a snarky remark about having to ask someone above his pay grade on budget at the press conference). Multiple posters said I was reading more into that than I should and was being negative....... It appears I was quite correct on that front, and fully stand by the comment that this debacle will further damage the bad reputation the Jays already have around the league.

- People were talking about resigning Price and Estrada and bolstering a couple holes in the lineup, and I said I doubt this given how cheap Rogers is and their propensity to not reinvest profits into the baseball club...... Can't be right or wrong on that yet, but watch Brunt's interview with Tim and Sid and read between the lines. This team will be nowhere near the top ten in the league on payroll once 2017 rolls around. They won't be reallocating the money they save when Bautista and Edwin leave

Call me negative all you want, but i'm not spinning anything.

Maybe not spin but you certainly have a glass half empty view of anything related to the Jays.
And for the record, I've been a fan of this team for 30 years.

Just because someone doesn't share your pessimistic view of the Jays that they have their "head in the sand". Maybe they just have a different opinion?

[bluejays]

I'm not sure about Anderson. When Oakland had him he was a stud in the making. Now in a team going for it, he seems more of a project than a player you want to take a chance on for a championship team. I'd really put Marco higher. I wonder how much Jeff Samardzija will be going for?

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

- the general concensus among Jays fans was that they showed Rogers what they are capable of when They commit to fielding a winning team, this would change Rogers opinion on the team. Well it looks like that isn't the case, Rogers gonna do what Rogers gonna do.

While I don't agree, I don't necessarily disagree on your view of Rogers' stance.

Toronto generally pays for good performance. With the Jays though, if the Jays made all these deals last November, I'm not convinced the fans would've had the same turnout as they did when most the deals were made at the deadline and just came out of nowhere. It was a shock effect and it wasn't expected in the least. Whether it continues into next season, as good as ticket sales were this year, I wouldn't be surprised if fans regress a little bit.

Secondly, the effect of the USD. Surely Rogers hedges against this, but how much and when? The currency exchange is likely killing them right now as I don't imagine they banked a lot of that hedging last year, knowing the dollar was going to tank. Just think about it for a second. They lose 30% for every dollar they spend right now, because they have to pay in US funds. On that alone I don't blame them for being a little cheap. It's hard to keep up with the Jones', if you're in such a tough economic situation. Which brings me to my third point - risk...

Rogers is a corporation. They're responsible to their shareholders to bring value. Surely this year was very valuable to shareholders based on ticket sales, merchandise and playoff revenue. That is undeniable. However, this is a sport and especially baseball, is so difficult to make the playoffs. Say the Jays poured Bosox money this year again and they didn't make it, suddenly shareholders are pissed that there was no good ROI. Look at it from the perspective of the CEO. How do you forecast to your shareholders what the expected income will be the following quarter if much of your estimate is on how a sports property is performing? It's a tough sell. Corporate ownership in sports sucks, because they're responsible first to the shareholder, then second the fan. At least private ownership by some old rich guy means greater risk propositions, because it's play money.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by fleury

I'm not sure about Anderson. When Oakland had him he was a stud in the making. Now in a team going for it, he seems more of a project than a player you want to take a chance on for a championship team. I'd really put Marco higher. I wonder how much Jeff Samardzija will be going for?

Only had him higher due to his high GB rate. With how much the turf slows the ball down and the Jays amazing IF defense, I think a pitcher like Anderson might have a great season. If anything I'd target mostly GB pitchers with K abilities.

[kmart]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

- You will never get me to believe the Jays made any effort to win in Tampa. They started Buerhle on like one day's rest.

Depends how you spin it. Royals were in control of their own destiny at that point and Buerhle was trying to get to 200 innings. You talk about reputation, things like this couldn't hurt that reputation.

- Gibbons is not a good Manager. In his latest tenure he is under .500 right up until July Of this year when he was handed the keys to an all star team. He under achieved for two and half years. His game management is terrible, and leaning on his gut instead of looking at the stats costs the Jays all the time. He should have been gone before this season even started. Had they lost to Texas, he would have been canned.

Really up to discretion, could you imagine how pissed some players might be if he was fired after a pretty good season?

- Are you really suggesting Jays fans should be grateful Rogers is keeping the same payroll? Both Rogers and the Jays are hedged on fx so it's not as big of deal as you think, and even if they weren't, these guys made a boatload of money on this run and aren't reinvesting a penny of in back in to the team which is the problem with the Jays in the first place.

Sports teams don't make much money period, there isn't much money at all to be re-invested. Rogers aren't going to throw 50 million at baseball team, thats money that won't be coming back at all. Being a Blue Jays fan its just something you have to live with knowing that a corporation owns the Blue Jays. Some years they won't spend, some years they will go for it.

- they aren't going to reduce payrolll, but they aren't going to be a contender if they don't increase it They desperately need pitching and don't have a single Prospect left to be renters at the deadline. Brunt flat out said they aren't going to be signing any pitchers when they fully intend on rebuilding in 2017. They are essentially wasting 2016 by keeping the status quo. I'm not even going to get into my thoughts on rebuilding. In a market the size of Toronto (well Canada), this team should be restocking through free agency not rebuilding. Even with Bautista and Edwin gone, they still have pillar, Donaldson, Martin, Tulo, and a Travis to build around.

You have the bottom half payroll teams like the Royals and Mets making the playoffs. Let's wait and see what happens this offseason when it comes to making moves for pitchers. Again I believe the our dollar declining really hurt our payroll.

I know the market size is large, but until the end of last season it didn't even result in ticket sales. This is a market that is spread out nationwide. It's not like the Yankees with 20 million people in remote location.

- the general concensus among Jays fans was that they showed Rogers what they are capable of when They commit to fielding a winning team, this would change Rogers opinion on the team. Well it looks like that isn't the case, Rogers gonna do what Rogers gonna do.

Again, thats just the way a corporation works. They have to account for different shareholders. They can't just throw 50 million at a team without receiving a return on their investment and with a sports team they will not. The fact that they are top 10 in payroll speaks volumes that they are somewhat committed to winning. If you want a top 5 payroll team the fan bases of the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox are always open. I'll stick with the ups and downs of being a Blue Jays fan.