Alberta Provincial By-Elections - Fall 2014 Editions

[Slava]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

There's absolutely ZERO chance that Anders becomes the next WRP leader. If he's even on the ballot, I -- a latte-sipping small-l liberal -- will personally buy a party membership just so I can vote against him.

Assuming Smith's upcoming presser is to announce her resignation (what else could it be?), I have no idea who will replace her. Does the WRP have any star candidates waiting in the wings? Someone capable and experienced enough to take on Prentice in a general election? I honestly can't think of anyone. Maybe Jason Kenney, but I think he has eyes on the federal CPC leadership if/when Harper loses an election and resigns.

Not me. I would buy a membership to vote for Anders as the leader of the Wildrose. Politics 101.

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I suspect where we differ is on expectations: I never thought they had a realistic shot in Elbow, so given that I would say their showing was very strong. In that context, the real question is whether they can raise enough money to run that kind of campaign province-wide. If they can they will be a force in the next election, not in Elbow, but Currie, Buffalo, and other urban-sense ridings. Let's not forget that Calgarians, even urban ones, won't vote NDP--that is abundantly clear. The issue to me is where centrists will park their vote next time given the choice between an Alberta Party that exceeded expectations in Elbow and a Liberal Party that was honestly an afterthought in four byelections.

Building a party from the ground up takes a lot of time; I think the Alberta Party looks at this as a partial victory. Obviously winning would have been better, but the riding didn't look all that winnable in the beginning. Given that, I don't see how they consider folding their tents after this.

Of course the Alberta Party looks at this as a small victory. The fact remains this was a golden opportunity. I thinks its interesting that you keep focusing in Clark beating Susan Wright because if he didn't it would be a clear disaster. Realistically the bar is not set at beating the Liberals in a by election against a candidate. We're talking about a party leader here, so for Clark the bar is he had to win. The Alberta Party got trounced by the Liberals in the other ridings, who got trounced by the other major parties.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Slava

Not me. I would buy a membership to vote for Anders as the leader of the Wildrose. Politics 101.

The thought of Anders becoming premier is so horrifying to me that I would do anything to prevent it from happening, even if that means helping the WRP choose a more electable leader.

This debate is purely academic, though. He's very unlikely to ever hold an elected office again. I'm curious what plum patronage appointment Harper will give him prior to the next election, though.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

The Wildrose is at an existential crisis point, if they can't make serious inroads in the cities in the next election they might as well fold as a party, unless they are content maxing out at 20 rural seats with the ability to accomplish nothing. But if the PCs can win again with ease in 2016 I can see the Wildrose folding and their best elected members going back to the PCs.

While I think the Wildrose is deep trouble, I don't think you'll ever see the Wildrose unite with the PCs ever again. That divorce has been a nasty drawn out feud, where both parties see each other not as rivalries, but as enemies. I don't see any benefit for the PCs in such a merger considering the newest generation of Albertans are moving to the left and not the right.

[GP_Matt]

Originally Posted by Ducay

WRA will start to win when they start acting like a mature, responsible party. Right now they'll literally say anything and support anything to get a vote. Smith is more interested in slandering opponents than making the party something more legitimate than simply a "second choice".

They would do so much better if they set some firm policies that were realistic and picked up a leader that people could trust (Someone like Kenny or another MP). For now, they're a walking sideshow with Roberta Anders as a leader. Plus, they remind me of American politics, smear everything and pray you come out on top.

I would put a lot more weight on your opinion if you didn't resort to name calling when calling out a party for low brow political methods.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I suspect where we differ is on expectations: I never thought they had a realistic shot in Elbow, so given that I would say their showing was very strong. In that context, the real question is whether they can raise enough money to run that kind of campaign province-wide. If they can they will be a force in the next election, not in Elbow, but Currie, Buffalo, and other urban-sense ridings. Let's not forget that Calgarians, even urban ones, won't vote NDP--that is abundantly clear. The issue to me is where centrists will park their vote next time given the choice between an Alberta Party that exceeded expectations in Elbow and a Liberal Party that was honestly an afterthought in four byelections.

Building a party from the ground up takes a lot of time; I think the Alberta Party looks at this as a partial victory. Obviously winning would have been better, but the riding didn't look all that winnable in the beginning. Given that, I don't see how they consider folding their tents after this.

The AP certainly won't fold their tents, but they pulled what the Greens did in the federal election - put all eggs in one basket and left the other candidates to twist in the wind - and still lost easily. The questionable robocall "scandal", the worked poll results, the fake merger proposal. Carter did a masterful job of making something out of nothing, but it still amounted to pretty much nothing. And now Clark needs to hope that his vote can hold in another riding (because he sure as hell won't run against an incumbent minister if he's smart) and not just a by-election effect.

Meanwhile, you look at the other three ridings, and the Alberta party was completely irrelevant. Even more so than an NDP candidate in Calgary, and finished SIXTH in Calgary-Foothills. Clark can claim a moral victory personally, but his party is slotting in comfortably behind the NDP in the grand scheme of things.

From a Wildrose perspective, the only chance they really had was Calgary-West, and that loss hurts. Smith et al are going to have to put some serious thinking into how to fight the next election. Much like how Hinman's by-election victory invigorated the party, these losses are going to hurt. They will need to plan how to get past it.

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The AP certainly won't fold their tents, but they pulled what the Greens did in the federal election - put all eggs in one basket and left the other candidates to twist in the wind - and still lost easily. The questionable robocall "scandal", the worked poll results, the fake merger proposal. Carter did a masterful job of making something out of nothing, but it still amounted to pretty much nothing. And now Clark needs to hope that his vote can hold in another riding (because he sure as hell won't run against an incumbent minister if he's smart) and not just a by-election effect.

Calgary-Buffalo? Or is there a chance Chima goes there?

[Bigtime]

Apparently the Wild Rose thing at 11am is just a question and answer session.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Calgary-Buffalo? Or is there a chance Chima goes there?

That's the rumour that I've heard.

[nik-]

Danielle Smith on the news last night was saying that "It appears that the voters are willing to give the PC one last chance". She looked like she was about to cry. Like when you see people who are smiling on the outside but then just burst into tears.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Calgary-Buffalo? Or is there a chance Chima goes there?

Yeah, that would be a good one. Kent Hehr abandoning the riding for federal politics would definitely make that one a possibility.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

And now Clark needs to hope that his vote can hold in another riding (because he sure as hell won't run against an incumbent minister if he's smart) and not just a by-election effect.

If Clark runs again, I bet it's in Calgary-Buffalo. With Kent Hehr jumping to the feds, there's going to be an opening there, and voters in the area have a recent history of electing progressive candidates (i.e. Hehr, Woolley).

[Edit]
I see I was beaten by several others with this thought.

[ben voyonsdonc]

If Clark runs in Buffalo against a strong Liberal, he is going to gift wrap the riding for the PCs.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Apparently the Wild Rose thing at 11am is just a question and answer session.

Booooring. Why not just do that last night when Smith was already addressing the media?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by ben voyonsdonc

If Clark runs in Buffalo against a strong Liberal, he is going to gift wrap the riding for the PCs.

This is exactly why the Liberals and Alberta Party need to come together. Its not the ridings like Calgary West, Shaw, Foothills or wherever, its the ridings where some cooperation would actually mean seats.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

And now Clark needs to hope that his vote can hold in another riding (because he sure as hell won't run against an incumbent minister if he's smart) and not just a by-election effect.

It may just be morning after talk, but he's already declared that he will run again in the Elbow. Which is why I think they aren't going to move any further up the food chain. Why not take a run at Hehr's spot? They would have a stronger chance then trying to unseat a high-profile minister of education.

[Slava]

He also says that there are sitting MLAs who are ready to jump to the Alberta Party.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Apparently the Wild Rose thing at 11am is just a question and answer session.

First question should be whether a leadership change is needed to take them beyond a meaningless secondary party. Would love to her reaction to that one.

[troutman]

Goodbye wild rose
From a province lost without your soul
Who'll miss the wings of your compassion
More than you'll ever know

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

It may just be morning after talk, but he's already declared that he will run again in the Elbow. Which is why I think they aren't going to move any further up the food chain. Why not take a run at Hehr's spot? They would have a stronger chance then trying to unseat a high-profile minister of education.

Because Clark will run in Elbow again and Chima will take Buffalo.

[ben voyonsdonc]

I don't think Chima will be enough to take Buffalo for the Alberta Party either...especially considering the Liberals can do a year long candidate search to find a strong candidate. If the Liberals field a weak candidate, Chima could pull it off.