US government shutdown?

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by Red Ice Player

Repeated punches to the face springs to mind...do you value his friendship?

I was hoping to respond in a meaningful way. This seems to me that it's just opinion really. Sure the President and Senate could change all this by bending to the House, or the House could bend to the President and Senate.

[Fusebox]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

That means absolutely nothing. Very few black people vote for the Republican Party. Clinton, Gore, and Kerry all won the black vote by huge margins too.

Nobody has won a demographic by as many points as Obama won the black vote in 2008. Romney didn't even come close to that number among Mormans in 2012.

It isn't so much about how many members of a demographic a candidate can carry, but where they can carry them. Rubio would undoubtedly carry Florida, which would give him a solid 29 electoral votes more than what Romney won in 2012. That gets him to 235, if you assume that he can hold every state that Romney won. Add in New Mexico, whom Rubio would presumably carry with the Latino vote, and you're at 240. Colorado is worth nine, which gets him to 249. Nevada has six, so that's 255. He'd only have to pick off another 16 votes to win. Ohio would obviously be in play anyway, but the Latino factor could turn traditionally Democratic strongholds like New Jersey or even California into the mix. If either of them or New York are even being contested, it is lights out for Hillary or any other Democratic candidate.

Guys like John McCain and John Boehner are well aware of this, and that is why they are pushing so hard for a comprehensive immigration bill. Of course the Tea Party are against it, and this is what will absolutely doom the Republicans to a generation of losses in the Presidential races if they fail to address it properly.

[Red Ice Player]

Originally Posted by kermitology

I was hoping to respond in a meaningful way. This seems to me that it's just opinion really. Sure the President and Senate could change all this by bending to the House, or the House could bend to the President and Senate.

Giving in to House Republicans would be a subversion of what little democracy is left in Washington. Why empower extortionists? The GOP is in freefall. Let them implode.

[Minnie]

Originally Posted by DuffMan

Is that still going? Wish I never got kickd off , I'll have to try to get back in again. Is there a secret password or anything?

Yep. I just logged in after months of not being on there. Now I feel the distinct need to go take a long shower to get rid of the ick.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Fusebox

Nobody has won a demographic by as many points as Obama won the black vote in 2008. Romney didn't even come close to that number among Mormans in 2012.

It isn't so much about how many members of a demographic a candidate can carry, but where they can carry them. Rubio would undoubtedly carry Florida, which would give him a solid 29 electoral votes more than what Romney won in 2012. That gets him to 235, if you assume that he can hold every state that Romney won. Add in New Mexico, whom Rubio would presumably carry with the Latino vote, and you're at 240. Colorado is worth nine, which gets him to 249. Nevada has six, so that's 255. He'd only have to pick off another 16 votes to win. Ohio would obviously be in play anyway, but the Latino factor could turn traditionally Democratic strongholds like New Jersey or even California into the mix. If either of them or New York are even being contested, it is lights out for Hillary or any other Democratic candidate.

Guys like John McCain and John Boehner are well aware of this, and that is why they are pushing so hard for a comprehensive immigration bill. Of course the Tea Party are against it, and this is what will absolutely doom the Republicans to a generation of losses in the Presidential races if they fail to address it properly.

Just because Rubio is latino doesn't mean Latinos will vote for him. I think that is very, very simplistic.

The American Latino community, while on the whole religious and conservative, won't vote for republicans until the republica's adopt a serious immigration platform.

If Rubio runs and the democrats have a Latino President or VP candidate, where do you think the vote goes? To the party with the friendliest immigration platform presented by the hispanic person. They are issue voters, and their issue is immigration reform and naturalization.

[Fusebox]

Go up four posts, and then read the last paragraph.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Fusebox

Nobody has won a demographic by as many points as Obama won the black vote in 2008. Romney didn't even come close to that number among Mormans in 2012.
.

It was actually by a % or 2, it wasn't as much as you are making it out to be. Clinton and Gore both had high 90s support among black Americans.

[Fusebox]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

It was actually by a % or 2, it wasn't as much as you are making it out to be. Clinton and Gore both had high 90s support among black Americans.

No, they didn't.

Clinton 83% in 1992
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/ele.../voted_92.html

Clinton 84% in 1996
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/ele.../voted_96.html

Gore 90% in 2000
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/ele.../voted_96.html

Kerry 88% in 2004
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/ele.../voted_04.html

Obama 95% in 2008
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/ele.../voted_08.html

Obama 93% in 2012
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/ele.../voted_12.html

Now, you might point out that Obama carried only 3% more of the black vote in 2012 than Gore did in 2000, and you would be correct. However, if Rubio were to win only 3% more of the Latino vote in 2016 than Romney carried in 2012, the election wouldn't even be close. Rubio would win the election in a landslide. If Rubio could even just improve the Republican showing among Hispanics to even something close to 50%, he'd win.

Interestingly, Hispanics/Latinos account for 16.3% of the American population, but only 10% of the actual voting demographic. Blacks account for 13% of the population and 13% of actual voters. What does that tell you? Either black people are more likely to vote, or black people are more likely to turn out to the polls when there is a black candidate on the ticket. Yes, it is an oversimplification, but don't think for a second that race is not a major factor when talking about elections, regardless of the issues. If a Cuban or Mexican or Puerto Rican American was on the top of the Republican ticket, I think they would stand a very, very good chance of winning in 2016.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Fusebox

Interestingly, Hispanics/Latinos account for 16.3% of the American population, but only 10% of the actual voting demographic.

Yeah, but a good chunk of those are not US citizens, and wouldn't be eligible to vote. Really, they only make up about 11% of eligible voters http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...n_1932569.html

Also, a candidate who runs for a party that doesn't represent the issues facing their community is not necessarily going to get much support from that community. Herman Cain brought up more feeling of vitrol and hatred among black friends and co-workers than just about any other republican politician I can recall.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by kermitology

I was hoping to respond in a meaningful way. This seems to me that it's just opinion really. Sure the President and Senate could change all this by bending to the House, or the House could bend to the President and Senate.

What I look at is that the Tea Party has come to Washington to disrupt the routine. Not just disrupt but to go against anything that Obama and the Democrats try to do to improve the country in order to make Obama look bad and be unsuccessful. To my mind this is just short of treason as they have no intention of doing what's best for the USA. They are out to get Obama at any cost and this is just another example.

The motivations at the lowest are racial and at the other end are economics and power as displayed by the Koch brothers who would be glad to bring the system down or at least bring them to a point of control of government for their benefit.

The ACA is just another example of the tactics employed by the Tea Party controlled Republican Party. To my way of thinking, if you support the Tea Party, you are either a millionaire or you've been brainwashed.

an example of the Republicans tactics which have nothing to do with the improvement of the common American.

The juxtaposition of Tuesday's two top stories was extraordinary.
The top story all day was that Republicans had shut down the federal government because President Obama wouldn't defund or delay the Affordable Care Act. The other major story was that the government's servers were crashing because so many people were trying to see if they could get insurance through Obamacare.
So on the one hand, Washington was shut down because Republicans don't want Obamacare. On the other hand, Obamacare was nearly shut down because so many Americans wanted Obamacare.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ere-afraid-of/

I'm sure I've left out some points but this is a start but really I don't see the reason for arguing with your friend. This is probably more deep seated than what appears on the surface.

[MarchHare]

To my way of thinking, if you support the Tea Party, you are either a millionaire or you've been brainwashed.

Koch brothers excepted, American business leaders are finally starting to turn against the Tea Party (see the link I posted earlier in this thread). Say what you will about Wall Street bankers and corporate CEOs, but they fully understand the dire consequences of an intransigent Tea Party triggering a global economic catastrophe by continuing the government shut down and causing the US to default on its debt repayments.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Fusebox

Go up four posts, and then read the last paragraph.

I read it.

a) it doesn't matter which moderates in the republican party are proposing immigration reform, the base won't like it and the party won't adopt it. Prime example is the Immigration bill that passed through the Senate, only to be outright rejected by Speaker of the House Boehner. It's pretty cut and dried. The republican controlled house won't even hear it. Right now, there is a bi-partisan bill that passed through the senate, something like 60-30, that is sitting, waiting, for the House to hear it. It's just sitting there. The republican controlled House won't listen to it as the 2 millionth illegal Mexican was deported and protests popped up in Washington.

b) 'Comprehensive Immigration Reform' isn't exactly as it's laid out, it was a massive appropriations bill in 2007 that would have substantially increased the footprint of the federal government. It was a non-starter with republicans who, (See point A) won't support any immigration bill that provides a means to citizenship for 'illegals' already in the country. It was a political move designed to help attract Latino votes to McCain. There is a serious argument to be made that McCain's championing of Immigration Reform cost him substantial Republican support throughout the entire campaign and eventually helped lose him the election.

C) Social conservativism and tax cuts are the two major tenants of the GOP. Immigration reform goes against both of those things and cuts directly to the race-relation nerve that is still such a prominent political tool in the US.

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Just because Rubio is latino doesn't mean Latinos will vote for him. I think that is very, very simplistic.

The American Latino community, while on the whole religious and conservative, won't vote for republicans until the republica's adopt a serious immigration platform.

That is exactly the point, though. People have been saying this for years. Want the white house? Well here's a massive block of voters that you could have in your tent who share many of your core values anyway, and all you have to do is take their side on this one issue - which, by the way, could very well sway a bunch of non-latino Democrats.

Having to root out this infestation of crazy is really costing the Republicans an opportunity to revitalize their party.

[Stay Golden]

If the Republicans don't smarten up they are going to have a Greece situation with the masses. More and more people being denied their incomes just because of a pissing contest to make Obama look bad and to force the government to become ineffective.
I really am shocked anyone is even blaming Obama for his healthcare being the problem. It is laughable.
The Republicans are acting somewhat treasonous towards their own soldiers and the people of the USA.
Refusing to pay military bereavement benefits to the families is heinous.
Is that true that this is what is occurring?

[CaptainCrunch]

I think there was an agreement reached on Military Bereavement pay

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Fusebox

No, they didn't.

Clinton 83% in 1992
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/ele.../voted_92.html

Clinton 84% in 1996
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/ele.../voted_96.html

Gore 90% in 2000
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/ele.../voted_96.html

Kerry 88% in 2004
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/ele.../voted_04.html

Obama 95% in 2008
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/ele.../voted_08.html

Obama 93% in 2012
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/ele.../voted_12.html

Now, you might point out that Obama carried only 3% more of the black vote in 2012 than Gore did in 2000, and you would be correct. However, if Rubio were to win only 3% more of the Latino vote in 2016 than Romney carried in 2012, the election wouldn't even be close. Rubio would win the election in a landslide. If Rubio could even just improve the Republican showing among Hispanics to even something close to 50%, he'd win.

Interestingly, Hispanics/Latinos account for 16.3% of the American population, but only 10% of the actual voting demographic. Blacks account for 13% of the population and 13% of actual voters. What does that tell you? Either black people are more likely to vote, or black people are more likely to turn out to the polls when there is a black candidate on the ticket. Yes, it is an oversimplification, but don't think for a second that race is not a major factor when talking about elections, regardless of the issues. If a Cuban or Mexican or Puerto Rican American was on the top of the Republican ticket, I think they would stand a very, very good chance of winning in 2016.

I had to dig back in our old US politics thread for this one.

Guess it depends on who you go with, I am not sure about the source you posted, but here is Gallup:

Link

Gallup polling estimated that John Kerry received 93% of the black vote in 2004, and Al Gore received 95% in 2000. So it may be that black voters are making the (correct) self-observation that they would be voting for the Democratic candidate regardless of his or her race, meaning that Obama's particular race is not a deciding factor for them.

[CaptainCrunch]

Hopefully I'm out of texas before the food rights commence and the T.V. networks take over governing the country.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by 19Yzerman19

That is exactly the point, though. People have been saying this for years. Want the white house? Well here's a massive block of voters that you could have in your tent who share many of your core values anyway, and all you have to do is take their side on this one issue - which, by the way, could very well sway a bunch of non-latino Democrats.

Having to root out this infestation of crazy is really costing the Republicans an opportunity to revitalize their party.

Its not crazy that's the problem, it is deep seeded issues of racial stratification and how fundamentally important they are and how effectively the GOP uses it for tactical advantage.

From a base historical perspective, this is an unchanged issue from Lincoln era america.

It is a divisive tactic that is necessary to tap into if you want to be elected without a substantive platform. In the absense of these antiquated tactics of a bygone era, you have to actually campaign on ideas, proposals and initiative, none of which are hallmarks of the GOP of the last...20 to 25 years.

[karl262]

Clean limit debt increase bill to avoid default just defeated. Time is quickly running out, they better get this sorted right away. No one knows how the markets are going to react on Monday to this news of more deadlock.

[DuffMan]

Originally Posted by karl262

Clean limit debt increase bill to avoid default just defeated. Time is quickly running out, they better get this sorted right away. No one knows how the markets are going to react on Monday to this news of more deadlock.

morons