Playoff Chances

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Parallex

By that standard St. Louis, Detroit, and Nashville (to say nothing of Columbas) should all be sellers right now.

Ahhhh I see what you did there!

Come one, Central division versus NW? Out of any team in the central NSH should be selling anything they can . Det is the only bubble team ouside of NSH and CLB (because the Jackets still suck).

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Flames are three games out of the division lead. I'd say we become sellers if we fall twelve points out of the division race.

3 points?

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

3 points?

Games, two points per win = 6 points. Sorry I have a basketball and baseball standings way of looking at standings.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

3 points?

6 points.

3 games.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Ahhhh I see what you did there!

Come one, Central division versus NW?

Okey pacific then?... I guess Los Angeles best be dumping guys if the Ducks win their next game and the Kings lose their next game?

I don't actually believe that I'm just pointing out that determining when (if ever) the appropriate time to shed assets is should not be relative to your position to the division leader. Beyond the occasional #3 seeding the division doesn't even matter with regards to playoff entry.

[dammage79]

The west is so tight outside of Division leaders, my post was more in line with the idea that almost every team in the NW outside of VAN will likely miss a playoff birth if we don't take the division. which is pretty fair to say. And if we are twelve points back of any team leading the NW division, Its a fair bet we are well off the pace to the rest of the west.

[Flash Walken]

It's taken a month for the flames to make up a 1 point deficit in behind 8th.

On February 4th, the Flames were 5 points back of 6th (3 teams tied) with 2 games in hand.

They are now 4 points back of 6th with 1 game in hand, 4 points back of 8th (two teams tied) with 2 games in hand.

Lots of teams around/ahead of the flames have gained or lost ground but the Flames are mostly stagnant.

4 points may not look like much, but half way into the season, it's likely insurmountable without any inter-conference games.

Calgary is now going to be playing a ton of games against teams ahead of them that are doing their own scrambling to get ahead. at 5-4-1 in their last 10, the Flames are lagging behind the Stars at 5-4-1 and the Wild at 6-3-1.

Phoenix, the 9th place team is also 6-3-1 in their last 10 and is 3 points up on Calgary having played one more game. With a goal differential of +3, I think it's far more likely that Phoenix finishes in the playoffs than Calgary with their -11 differential.

The LA Kings, only one position up from Calgary in the standings are 7-3-0 in their last ten and are 2 points up on Calgary with a game in hand.

4 Points is a lot.

[HELPNEEDED]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

It's taken a month for the flames to make up a 1 point deficit in behind 8th.

On February 4th, the Flames were 5 points back of 6th (3 teams tied) with 2 games in hand.

They are now 4 points back of 6th with 1 game in hand, 4 points back of 8th (two teams tied) with 2 games in hand.

Lots of teams around/ahead of the flames have gained or lost ground but the Flames are mostly stagnant.

4 points may not look like much, but half way into the season, it's likely insurmountable without any inter-conference games.

Calgary is now going to be playing a ton of games against teams ahead of them that are doing their own scrambling to get ahead. at 5-4-1 in their last 10, the Flames are lagging behind the Stars at 5-4-1 and the Wild at 6-3-1.

Phoenix, the 9th place team is also 6-3-1 in their last 10 and is 3 points up on Calgary having played one more game. With a goal differential of +3, I think it's far more likely that Phoenix finishes in the playoffs than Calgary with their -11 differential.

The LA Kings, only one position up from Calgary in the standings are 7-3-0 in their last ten and are 2 points up on Calgary with a game in hand.

4 Points is a lot.

But simply due to the fact their all inter-conference games those 4-points are very much attainable.

[moon]

Originally Posted by HELPNEEDED

But simply due to the fact their all inter-conference games those 4-points are very much attainable.

The problem isn't the 4 points it is that at least one if not more of the teams ahead of us are likely to also get the 4 points as well.

Sure the Flames can outplay the 8th place team the rest of the way but can they outplay the all of the 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th place teams in a season where those teams are playing each other more often and somebody is getting 2 points and in many cases they are 3 point games.

[troutman]

The biggest problem for the Flames is the many home losses. 5-5-2 at home is a big obstacle. 12 home games. 8 road games.

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by HELPNEEDED

But simply due to the fact their all inter-conference games those 4-points are very much attainable.

One of SJ, LA, or STL is going to drop or move up a few spots in the next month. LA has 10 games at home for the remainder of March, which I would assume they win 6 of them.

Problem there is, LA plays PHX 3 times, which leaves the potential for either team to advance 6 points. It's also possible each game goes 3 points and 9 are up for grabs (PHX gets 6, LA gets 3 or vice versa)

The best chance the Flames have right now is for the Blues to hit a losing streak. St. Louis is the only team of PHX, LA, SJ (within 4 points) that does not play either of that mix 3 times during March.

The Flames must get 4 points vs. Columbus this month as well to have a shot, imo. They need help from Anaheim, who could potentially block 10 points from the Sharks & Blues.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by troutman

The biggest problem for the Flames is the many home losses. 5-5-2 at home is a big obstacle. 12 home games. 8 road games.

Especially when 6 of those 12 games have been against teams who played the night before. The Flames really needed to take better advantage of their early season schedule.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by moon

The problem isn't the 4 points it is that at least one if not more of the teams ahead of us are likely to also get the 4 points as well.

But 4 points is what seperates the Flames and 4th place... 1 team getting those same 4 doesn't really change the equation (although it's going to be more then just the one) That's 5 playoff spots that they're presently only 4 points out of (AKA everything but the division winner slots)... granted those same 4 points are also what seperates fourteenth from fourth... crazy how bunched together the west is this year. Basically you have Chicago in a class all their own, Columbas pretty much out of it, and the Ducks seperating themselves from the pack but everyone else is just so close (even Vancouver is just a mere two points up on the bulk of the pack).

When is Kipper due back? If he comes back as something resembling his usual self (as opposed to the "brown banana's" he was laying at seasons onset) I wouldn't say it's out of the realm of possibility that the team goes on a run and pushes themselves into a playoff spot.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

It's taken a month for the flames to make up a 1 point deficit in behind 8th.

On February 4th, the Flames were 5 points back of 6th (3 teams tied) with 2 games in hand.

They are now 4 points back of 6th with 1 game in hand, 4 points back of 8th (two teams tied) with 2 games in hand.

Lots of teams around/ahead of the flames have gained or lost ground but the Flames are mostly stagnant.

4 points may not look like much, but half way into the season, it's likely insurmountable without any inter-conference games.

Calgary is now going to be playing a ton of games against teams ahead of them that are doing their own scrambling to get ahead. at 5-4-1 in their last 10, the Flames are lagging behind the Stars at 5-4-1 and the Wild at 6-3-1.

Phoenix, the 9th place team is also 6-3-1 in their last 10 and is 3 points up on Calgary having played one more game. With a goal differential of +3, I think it's far more likely that Phoenix finishes in the playoffs than Calgary with their -11 differential.

The LA Kings, only one position up from Calgary in the standings are 7-3-0 in their last ten and are 2 points up on Calgary with a game in hand.

4 Points is a lot.

It is worth noting that the Flames have missed their starting goaltender (arguably their best, or at least most important, player) for this entire month.

[StrykerSteve]

Originally Posted by Makarov

It is worth noting that the Flames have missed their starting goaltender (arguably their best, or at least most important, player) for this entire month.

Every team has been hit with those sorts of injuries, that can't be used as an excuse. Look at Ottawa as a great example.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Makarov

It is worth noting that the Flames have missed their starting goaltender (arguably their best, or at least most important, player) for this entire month.

They haven't been losing games because of goaltending even with the crappy play from Macdonald and Taylor. Heck last night they won a game with awful goaltending.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Parallex

But 4 points is what seperates the Flames and 4th place... 1 team getting those same 4 doesn't really change the equation (although it's going to be more then just the one) That's 5 playoff spots that they're presently only 4 points out of (AKA everything but the division winner slots)... granted those same 4 points are also what seperates fourteenth from fourth... crazy how bunched together the west is this year. Basically you have Chicago in a class all their own, Columbas pretty much out of it, and the Ducks seperating themselves from the pack but everyone else is just so close (even Vancouver is just a mere two points up on the bulk of the pack).

When is Kipper due back? If he comes back as something resembling his usual self (as opposed to the "brown banana's" he was laying at seasons onset) I wouldn't say it's out of the realm of possibility that the team goes on a run and pushes themselves into a playoff spot.

Still a bunch of teams that they have to play better than. I guess more spots makes it somewhat better but the amount of teams that are ahead of them is the real problem that the Flames have especially with the way the schedule works.

I certainly think they could go on a run and push themselves into the play-off but in my view an 8th place finish and 4 games of play-off action is likely more terrifying than missing as it will give the morons running the team that this group is worth keeping and that mediocrity is awesome.

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by moon

Still a bunch of teams that they have to play better than. I guess more spots makes it somewhat better but the amount of teams that are ahead of them is the real problem that the Flames have especially with the way the schedule works.

I certainly think they could go on a run and push themselves into the play-off but in my view an 8th place finish and 4 games of play-off action is likely more terrifying than missing as it will give the morons running the team that this group is worth keeping and that mediocrity is awesome.

The answer would probably be that the team hasn't been swept in a playoff series since 1995-1996. Coincidentally, vs. the Blackhawks.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by moon

The problem isn't the 4 points it is that at least one if not more of the teams ahead of us are likely to also get the 4 points as well.

Sure the Flames can outplay the 8th place team the rest of the way but can they outplay the all of the 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th place teams in a season where those teams are playing each other more often and somebody is getting 2 points and in many cases they are 3 point games.

The other huge problem is damn near half the games are going to OT as well which means your win is effectively only worth one point against half the teams you are chasing.

[timbit]

If anyone out there sees a team with less upside short term, intermediate and long term, please let me know.

Poor planning and poorly constructed. Period.

Zero impact players under 27. What other team can make that claim?