Calgary Centre Federal By-election - Nov 26 (UPDATE - Crockatt wins for CPC)

[mariners_fever]

Originally Posted by PoliSciStudent

Grenier has shown he can be quite accurate when polling is right. Polling in the US were correct, polls in Canada have been wrong. How was Grenier suppose to predict a large PC victory when polls showed the Wildrose in the lead?

Grenier's other challenge is that what Nate Silver does is easier to do when, for the most part, all of a state's electoral vote goes to a certain candidate and polls are done 14-times more often then they are in Canada and done by state. For Grenier to be able to do it the way Nate Silver does, we'd need reliable polling in each constituency. In my presidential pool, three of us all were right on 50/50 states. Nate Silver isn't much an oracle, he just computes data and presents it in a novel way.

Grenier's only hope in the Alberta Election would have been, again, access to local constituency polls. My own internal polling was spot on. The media polls, too, were accurate snapshots at that time. They matched with my internal polling when they were in the field, as did the actual result.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by RatherDashing

Does anybody know the location of the polling stations? I tried this tool from Elections Canada, but it doesn't seem to be working for me.

Your polling station has been moved, we'll call you on election day and let you know where to go.

Originally Posted by Bunk

“If I’m a backbench MP, I’m just fine doing that,” Ms. Crockatt said. “To me, the job is to support the Prime Minister in whatever way that he thinks.”

Good strategy, Harper is much more popular in Calgary than she is.

[Matty81]

Guy running for the Greens seems like a decent guy and I understand where their hearts are but man I loath Elizabeth May and the Greens. It takes a special kind of egomania to sap votes from parties with any chance of governing that might even consider the environment so you can have your 5 minutes of fame. Even worse how she parachuted in to Gulf Islands so she could get a job for herself after trying to parachute in to London North in 06.

Feels sort of like Canada's permanent Ross Perot to me. I know they only had 3.9% of the vote last election, but if they ever pick up steam the Conservatives will be in power for the next decade at least.

Ya I know people are going to claim disgruntled conservatives vote for them too - maybe a few but that's mostly bullcrap. With their platform on things like cracking down on polluters, national daycare and legalized marijuana they're poaching the vast majority of their voters from other left parties or people who weren't really very conservative to begin with.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Anyone think the Tories might be starting to regret nominating a complete nincompoop in this by-election? My guess is this race isn't even close if the Tory candidate has the kind of resume that Turner and Locke do.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Matty81

With their platform on things like cracking down on polluters, national daycare and legalized marijuana they're poaching the vast majority of their voters from other left parties or people who weren't really very conservative to begin with.

With a kid 2 or so weeks away, $7 daycare sounds pretty awesome.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Yeah, daycare costs are one of the biggest drags on the middle class these days. A targeted daycare subsidy would amount to a massive economic stimulus, in effect a tax break for middle-income earners worth thousands a year.

It would also be really expensive, and whether it's worthwhile is a debate worth having. But I don't see how it's some outlandish idea that instantly disqualifies a candidate.

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by Table 5

With a kid 2 or so weeks away, $7 daycare sounds pretty awesome.

I'm not even criticizing those things in particular, just saying that Elizabeth May has the same chance of making them happen as I do of winning the lottery.

to quote Jim Carrey - So I'm saying there's a chance.

[mariners_fever]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Anyone think the Tories might be starting to regret nominating a complete nincompoop in this by-election? My guess is this race isn't even close if the Tory candidate has the kind of resume that Turner and Locke do.

I'm going to guess you haven't seen Crockatt's resume....

20 years of high level media work with regularly circulated publications (Herald, helped form the NatPost, Canwest).

Has been at the front of a great deal of charity work for the arts and women.

I would say that her resume is no worse or better than either Turner's or Locke's.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

You guessed wrong.

EDIT to add that we've really fallen on hard times if a stint as an at-best mediocre editor of a third-rate local newspaper is enough to qualify someone to serve as our elected representative. Either we really lack talented people in Calgary Centre, or Crockatt (in addition to being patently a doofus) is pitifully unqualified.

Calgary voters should stop letting the Tory party treat them like a doormat, and send a message to the party: give us better candidates.

[SebC]

It could be that the low turnout at advance polls reflects people wanting to vote strategically.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

That's probably part of the explanation, honestly.

[mariners_fever]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

You guessed wrong.

EDIT to add that we've really fallen on hard times if a stint as an at-best mediocre editor of a third-rate local newspaper is enough to qualify someone to serve as our elected representative. Either we really lack talented people in Calgary Centre, or Crockatt (in addition to being patently a doofus) is pitifully unqualified.

Calgary voters should stop letting the Tory party treat them like a doormat, and send a message to the party: give us better candidates.

Because the Herald and the National Post are 'third-rate'.....? Because helping build CanWest into what became, at the time, the world's largest media conglomerate is not a professional accomplishment?

The party should 'give' you better candidates? Ms. Crockatt wasn't 'given' by anyone, she ran in a nomination and won the votes of regular members. No one 'gave' us Crockatt. Last I checked, it was a wide open race with a diverse group of candidates whereby no one was kept from running for the nomination and Ms. Crockatt edged out the 2nd-place finisher on the fourth ballot. So no, she wasn't 'given' to us by anyone other than herself and from rumours I've heard, some CPC officials were hoping for her to not win her nomination.

If her resume is so 'average', why didn't you run yourself? Surely you'd be able to trump these accomplishments otherwise you wouldn't have thrown stones, right?

The most annoying thing in what should be a good political debate baseless bashing simply because of party affiliation. You don't like their policies, cool. That's your prerogative and something that should never be removed from you. But please, get the facts straight. Bash parties for their policies or things that are actually based on fact.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Table 5

With a kid 2 or so weeks away, $7 daycare sounds pretty awesome.

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Yeah, daycare costs are one of the biggest drags on the middle class these days. A targeted daycare subsidy would amount to a massive economic stimulus, in effect a tax break for middle-income earners worth thousands a year.

It works great in Quebec with 8 billion in transfer payments but on a nation wide basis it would be just another massive bloated social program. There is only one taxpayer. A tax break for middle income earners who have daycare aged children and big tax increase for everyone else in the middle class.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by mariners_fever

Because the Herald and the National Post are 'third-rate'.....? Because helping build CanWest into what became, at the time, the world's largest media conglomerate is not a professional accomplishment?

The party should 'give' you better candidates? Ms. Crockatt wasn't 'given' by anyone, she ran in a nomination and won the votes of regular members. No one 'gave' us Crockatt. Last I checked, it was a wide open race with a diverse group of candidates whereby no one was kept from running for the nomination and Ms. Crockatt edged out the 2nd-place finisher on the fourth ballot. So no, she wasn't 'given' to us by anyone other than herself and from rumours I've heard, some CPC officials were hoping for her to not win her nomination.

If her resume is so 'average', why didn't you run yourself? Surely you'd be able to trump these accomplishments otherwise you wouldn't have thrown stones, right?

The most annoying thing in what should be a good political debate baseless bashing simply because of party affiliation. You don't like their policies, cool. That's your prerogative and something that should never be removed from you. But please, get the facts straight. Bash parties for their policies or things that are actually based on fact.

Yes, if the party membership would like me to vote for a candidate, they should try to make sure that person is qualified for the job. Is that really a lot to ask? I have the same issue with the provincial liberal party, for whatever that's worth--but if it makes you feel better to say that it's about partisanship then have at it. The fact is, one of our major governance problems in this country is that the best people don't run for office. That is true across parties, and is largely an effect of the fact that more qualified people can make way more money (and take far less grief) elsewhere.

And yes, I am quite familiar with Ms. Crockatt's career in journalism. I pay close attention to the sector, enough to know that involvement with it does not qualify anyone to hold office. She's a paragon of mediocrity; and what's more, the polls indicate I'm not the only person who feels this way.

Unless the voters in this historically conservative riding are just engaging in "partisan bashing". I think you can figure out whether that's particularly likely.

The worst thing is she will likely win--and by her own admission she will then join Rob Anders among the ranks of permanent rank-and-file backbenchers. At least she hasn't got delusions of grandeur..... :/

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Jacks

It works great in Quebec with 8 billion in transfer payments but on a nation wide basis it would be just another massive bloated social program. There is only one taxpayer. A tax break for middle income earners who have daycare aged children and big tax increase for everyone else in the middle class.

That's certainly possible. There are other problems with the idea as well, including the administrative nightmare of ensuring compliance with safety standards across a myriad of newly government-run facilities, not to mention the litigation risk of acting in loco parentis to small children while employing some of the lowest wage-earners in our economy.

On balance, it's hard to see how it could work--historically the federal government has been really bad at administering these sorts of programs.

[c.t.ner]

For those interested, the registration deadline for 1CalgaryCentre's vote is tonight at 6:00pm MST. If you want to register to vote use the link here - http://www.1calgarycentre.com/get-involved/#register. (And if you have questions regarding how the vote will run, they should be in answered in this blog post - http://www.1calgarycentre.com/1calga...tion-vote-run/).

The team will be verifying the registrants are indeed apart of the riding tonight and the emailing the voting questions tomorrow. The results of the voting, will then be released on Friday morning. (Which everyone can then dissect and extrapolate the information they want out of it).

From what I last heard we're sitting at above 400 people registered to vote and adding more as the day goes on. (So we've already surpassed the Forum Research samples).

[jtfrogger]

That seems like a lot of effort by 1CC for what seems like a predetermined endorsement of Turner. Tweets have been biased toward Turner. There seems to be a number of personal links between 1CC & the Turner campaign.

Now this process of registering with validation. Sure, it shows that they are going above and beyond to screen out duplicates. However, this will by no means be a random sample. This is very biased toward those that are very active online. Turner's campaign is very actively promoting that people sign up. Given that it appears that Turner has the strongest volunteer army, his supporters will dominate the poll. The sad part is 1CC will use this "validation" process to argue that it was an impartial process.

Keep in mind I am saying this as someone who is going to vote for Turner and I really hope that he wins (no matter how big of a longshot). I still think he is the best candidate, by far. Even if he comes in third, my vote is not wasted. It shows that if you bring forward a great candidate, you have a great shot of winning even if you are are backed by a "loonie" party. I think he would be in the lead if he was the Liberal candidate.

I am looking forward to hear the result of the latest polls. There are at least two recent polls. I got one call last night and one the night before. The call I got last night was interesting, in that it asked if 1CC would influence my vote. Obviously, this could be a private poll, but even these often get released unless the people paying for it really don't like the result.

[Knut]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

That's certainly possible. There are other problems with the idea as well, including the administrative nightmare of ensuring compliance with safety standards across a myriad of newly government-run facilities, not to mention the litigation risk of acting in loco parentis to small children while employing some of the lowest wage-earners in our economy.

On balance, it's hard to see how it could work--historically the federal government has been really bad at administering these sorts of programs.

There are allready some subsidies in place for RRSP matching ($500 a year) and tax breaks (lowest income parent can use daycare costs as a tax deduction). I have Kid in a day-home that costs me $850/month, but there is no way i should expect the rest of the tax paying population to help with that cost.

Once you start having multiple kids it is actually cheaper to hire a Nanny.

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by Jacks

It works great in Quebec with 8 billion in transfer payments but on a nation wide basis it would be just another massive bloated social program. There is only one taxpayer. A tax break for middle income earners who have daycare aged children and big tax increase for everyone else in the middle class.

The conservatives have already instituted Child Tax Credits which anyone can apply towards day care.

A daycare subsidy punishes families who choose to have a stay at home parent.

[bizaro86]

Interesting blog post about the by-election.

http://www.justinbumstead.ca/?p=330

It's from the end of September, before the 3 horse race got going. I though the part about a large number of non-party loyal voters was interesting, and I'd say it's pretty instructive as to what's happened. The support for Turner isn't support for the Green Party, imo.