Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by troutman

The financial industry is regulated? Seems like a free-for-all to me.

Originally Posted by fotze

Seems every week in the Herald we find out about another new financial advisor charged with stealing a million dollars from client and it scares the hell out of me.

Licensed and regulated advisors are subject to a lot of scrutiny actually. While there are always some who manage to slip through the cracks, its a very small percentage. The other thing that happens (and why I quoted fotze here) is that anyone seems to be able to hold them out as a financial advisor...I wish there was a regulation on who can use all those types of titles to lend some credibility to the profession and industry.

[chemgear]

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/09...n_3957237.html

Real estate consultant Ross Kay alleges that realtors in certain parts of the country — particularly in Greater Toronto and southern Ontario — are artificially inflating home sales by listing the same property twice, or sometimes even three times.

Ross Godsoe, CEO of the Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington, said Kay is “probably correct” in his claim that houses are being double- and triple-counted. He told HuffPost Canada that any house listed in his area — even if it is listed elsewhere — would count towards the monthly sales numbers.

BMO economist Benjamin Reitzes noted the controversy in a client note Monday morning, and told HuffPost Canada he found that the sales numbers from the local Toronto-area boards compared to stats from CREA “were off just a little bit."

But Reitzes and other market observers said the practice was unlikely to raise house price numbers, because it increases the apparent supply of available houses as much as it increases the sales numbers. Kay disagrees. He says the double- and triple-listings are concentrated more at the top of end the housing market, and those increased “sales” at the top end are pulling up the average house price.

Caroline Feeley, a sales rep with Sutton Group Quantum Realty in Mississauga, writes in to say she agrees the double and triple listings are distorting the statistics.

"I am not at all pleased with loading a listing three times and I feel that it is ridiculous to have to do so," Feeley writes. But she explains she has no choice, because of the way the "fractured" real estate board system works.

[Travis Munroe]

I can't speak for how it is done in Toronto however you will never see the same property listed twice under 2 different agents on the MLS in Calgary.
The one stat that can be thrown off is Days on Market. Reason being is some agents, including myself, will re list a property with price drops. This makes it look like a new listing and creates a sense of urgency for potential buyers. Now a listing which actually took 3 months to sell has sold in 6 days on market under the new listing.

[chemgear]

^ Yeah, I've always thought the "days on the market" stat was always rather useless/easily manipulated.

EDIT: I remember watching a listing that was continually updated every 2 days with a $100 change. It sure kept that stat low for a long while.

[squiggs96]

Any buyer with a competent agent will be provided with the listing, pricing and sales history of the house. You can see that the last listing either expired, or was removed, when the new one is created. If there was a house that I was interested in and saw it had a price drop and was relisted, I would think I can get it for even lower. Yes, every circumstance is different.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

I can't speak for how it is done in Toronto however you will never see the same property listed twice under 2 different agents on the MLS in Calgary.

Just to clarify though, is CREB indeed comparing "apple and donuts" against just apples with their press releases this year? Basically rolling in the private sales numbers and comparing them against numbers which never had these private sales last year.

I can't seem to find them pointing out this obvious discrepancy in their year over year comparisons.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by chemgear

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/09...n_3957237.html

Real estate consultant Ross Kay alleges that realtors in certain parts of the country — particularly in Greater Toronto and southern Ontario — are artificially inflating home sales by listing the same property twice, or sometimes even three times.

Ross Godsoe, CEO of the Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington, said Kay is “probably correct” in his claim that houses are being double- and triple-counted. He told HuffPost Canada that any house listed in his area — even if it is listed elsewhere — would count towards the monthly sales numbers.

BMO economist Benjamin Reitzes noted the controversy in a client note Monday morning, and told HuffPost Canada he found that the sales numbers from the local Toronto-area boards compared to stats from CREA “were off just a little bit."

But Reitzes and other market observers said the practice was unlikely to raise house price numbers, because it increases the apparent supply of available houses as much as it increases the sales numbers. Kay disagrees. He says the double- and triple-listings are concentrated more at the top of end the housing market, and those increased “sales” at the top end are pulling up the average house price.

Caroline Feeley, a sales rep with Sutton Group Quantum Realty in Mississauga, writes in to say she agrees the double and triple listings are distorting the statistics.

"I am not at all pleased with loading a listing three times and I feel that it is ridiculous to have to do so," Feeley writes. But she explains she has no choice, because of the way the "fractured" real estate board system works.

That's messed up!
I've never heard of listing the same property multiple times at once; don't even understand how that is possible??

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

That's messed up!
I've never heard of listing the same property multiple times at once; don't even understand how that is possible??

They have a bunch of real estate boards in one metropolis. So if you were selling a house you might list it on the Toronto Real Estate Board's MLS, the Mississauga Real Estate Board's MLS, etc.

Then, when it's marked sold on each version of MLS, its counted multiple times in the national statistics roll up. They argue that doesn't matter because multiple listings also improve availability.

All of this is of course ridiculous, there's no reason they couldn't filter out multiple properties with the same address/sales price from the sold numbers.

[Yoho]

Sept.

" Calgary’s red-hot housing market continued to sizzle in September as MLS sales and prices followed an upward trend."

http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...403/story.html

[chemgear]

Are they still rolling in the private sales numbers for this year and comparing them against numbers which never had these private sales last year?

Still no clarification or disclaimer about that?

[Red]

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/ross-ka...b_4018891.html

[Tron_fdc]

I let one of my properties sit for 2 weeks and relisted it. Sold in 24 hours, 1% below list. I'm selling another one in Cochrane, so we'll see how that goes.

I still think the market is inflated and due for a correction, so I'm pulling all my equity out now. Park it all in something like a fleet of snowmobiles

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

I let one of my properties sit for 2 weeks and relisted it. Sold in 24 hours, 1% below list. I'm selling another one in Cochrane, so we'll see how that goes.

When did you buy it & what was your sale price like compared to your original purchase price?
Curious to see how real properties have performed for CP members over the time we've been arguing in thread about "bubbles" and whatnot.

[Flamenspiel]

Personally i don't look at the CREA stats, one thing i have noticed is that land in the inner city has continued to appreciate, even past levels of the earlier boom. With all the infills there are very few of the older 50 foot lots.

[Muta]

I wish I had more than one property. How the hell do you rich f'ers do it, one is hard enough to pay for!

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by Muta

I wish I had more than one property. How the hell do you rich f'ers do it, one is hard enough to pay for!

Keep voting for Nenshi Druh...

[chemgear]

What am I missing here?


http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/

http://www.crea.ca/canadian-home-sales-august

For September:

Some 340,980 homes have traded hands across the country so far this year. That stands 1.8 per cent below levels recorded in the first three quarters of 2012.

For August:

Some 325,180 homes have traded hands across the country so far this year. That stands 2.9 per cent below levels recorded in the first eight months of 2012. Notwithstanding the recent upward trend in demand, CREA still expects the 2013 annual sales figure to come in below the 2012 figure.


But their graph is showing about 40,000 sales for September? That math isn't right; what am I missing, 25,000 in sales? Are they still double or triple counting and/or doing their improper comparison between last year and this year for private sales?

[kevman]

So what's happening in Calgary right now? Things seem to be taking off again with houses selling fast and for over list. Inventory is low low and demand seems strong. Where is the crash? There are some pretty crappy houses getting snapped up in days!

Are rates going up soon? Inflation is low but the dollar is slipping.

Having only casually followed it all for the last 6 or 7 years things seem very odd right now.

[darklord700]

Is the flood displacement effect still at work in the Calgary real estate market?

[nik-]

Originally Posted by kevman

So what's happening in Calgary right now? Things seem to be taking off again with houses selling fast and for over list. Inventory is low low and demand seems strong. Where is the crash? There are some pretty crappy houses getting snapped up in days!

Are rates going up soon? Inflation is low but the dollar is slipping.

Having only casually followed it all for the last 6 or 7 years things seem very odd right now.

One side: just an extra bubble before the burst

Other side: signs of a stable market with consistent growth, buy now!