American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Cappy]

This is a wild ride of an article on why people are voting for which candidate:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources...e-be676cabd12b

1. A female and black nurse voting for Stein because of the Gaza situation.

2. An veteran married to a woman whose family are undocumented immigrants because he liked trumps "toughness" has since changed his mind

3. Anti-vaxxers voting for Trump. "There’s no way my vote could be swayed away from Trump,"

4. Former Republicans (largely christian-conservatives) who becamse one-issue voters after their children were involved in a school shooting where their kids survived but three classmates died.

5. A gay Evangelical Christian who voted for Trump "begrudgingly in 2020" and was going to vote for Harris this time until she said something at a rally that he found to be hostile to Christians. He will not be voting at all.

6. A marine who hates trump, but is a baptist (as Harris claims to be) and finds her support for abortion to be disingenuous. He's voting for Trump because "because for all of his faults, you can believe him"

7. A former conservative woman in kentucky voting on abortion issues and womens' rights.

Only one person mentioned the economy - the middle-aged, white anti-vaxxer.

Religion still has a huge hold on many in the US, and it comes up a lot in these personal accounts of voting records. Many Trump supporters that arent full MAGA try to justify it with, conservative = religion and vice versa. They hide it with things like "trust" "toughness" "straight shooter" etc.

For Democrats, the two biggest ones were womens' rights and gun control issues. The economy wasn't mentioned.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Cappy

6. A marine who hates trump, but is a baptist (as Harris claims to be) and finds her support for abortion to be disingenuous. He's voting for Trump because "because for all of his faults, you can believe him"

People like this are a lost cause. All he does is lie. When they hear him say things like Haitians are eating people's pets and they execute new born babies in some states, they actually believe it?

[The Yen Man]

Yah, that one has always puzzled me. How can someone actually listen to what Trump says and thinks he's got integrity? Guy lies through his teeth so much that we call just kind of give him the "aw schucks, it's just Trump being Trump! no biggie!" excuse. At this point, it'd be more surprising if he came out with some actual facts.

If you say you'll vote for him despite his lies, I can at least respect that. To say with a straight face he's a believable guy really makes me doubt your intelligence overall.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

People like this are a lost cause. All he does is lie. When they hear him say things like Haitians are eating people's pets and they execute new born babies in some states, they actually believe it?

Not a lost cause, just a case study in the power of affirmation bias, deep down in side for some unstated and probably unconscious model of the world where he intuitively understands that people 'like him' are on Trumps side, he will subconsciously bend any fact to support Trump or dismiss Harris.

The change that needs to be made is not convincing him that Trump is a horrible person, he already knows that. The change that needs to be made is to help him understand that people 'like him' can support Harris without compromising 'who' they are, or possibly getting them to the point of understanding they have compromised on their own values by supporting Trump. It's hard and it's a 1 person at a time effort until you hit a critical mass, then it changes very quickly, but it's not a lost cause.


Alberta is really no different, people in Alberta believe themselves to be conservatives. And they are happy to support some faux-libertarian crazy lady, in spite of the fact that she wouldn't know conservatism if it slapped her across the face, but she's there at the head of the 'Conservative' party. And one day when in spite of the great head start Alberta had on the 21st century we found every possible avenue of squandering it people will quickly figure out that most of them aren't all that ideological and the current government certainly isn't conservative.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

People like this are a lost cause. All he does is lie. When they hear him say things like Haitians are eating people's pets and they execute new born babies in some states, they actually believe it?

That is because you are getting wrapped up in the words he says rather than what is in his heart.



Sincerely,


Kelly-Anne

[CroFlames]

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by MRCboicgy

Just an interesting thread about the broader repercussions from Iowa's abortion ban. Makes me think of what will go on in Alberta down the road as well, just with slashing healthcare overall

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852921202567688416

I lived in Poland when they enacted their widespread abortion ban in 2020. The only way a woman could receive an abortion was if they was either a direct threat to the mother's life, or it could be proven in a court of law that the fetus was conceived by sexual assault/rape.

2 things wrong with that. First of all, some older more conservative jesus-loving doctors were ignoring when mother's were lives were in danger and forcing the women to carry to term, regardless. I heard a bunch of stores in the news how women at risk were in hospital beds begging for doctors, but instead the hospital brought over priests to issue last rights. If the woman died, it was "god's plan". If she survived, then she wasn't really at a threat of dying. Either way, the solution was literally to pray the problem away. No repercussions to the doctor/hospital if a pregnant woman died.

Second of all regarding conception by rape, the only way a judge would rule in a woman's favor to terminate the pregnancy was if the rapist was convicted. This means that charges had to be filed, a court case takes place, and the rapist is found guilty. This does not take into accounts the delays or appeals which happen. This also all has to happen before the 3rd trimester. Also saw many news stories how lawyers were just filing motions to delay and appeal.

Many women would just leave the country to get abortions since they can travel the Schengen zone to pro-life member states. But the government caught on quick and had a pregnancy registry setup to track who was pregnant, the time frame, estimated due date, and could follow up to ensure the child was born. Last I heard before I moved back to Canada was that the newly elected left-leaning government was going to retract the law, but a quick google search shows the ban remains in place and the retraction never happened.

Not sure how this will work in the US if the ban happens, but likely it will go the same way. In my city where I lived there were 27 deaths in the first few weeks of the abortion ban. Plastering it on the front page news didn't change much either.

I don't understand how any woman of childbearing age who fully understands what it is like to physically be a woman and the trials her body goes through could vote for Trump. That is, unless you hate immigrants, black/brown/asian people so much that you are willing to put your own sex's lives at risk. I guess then, sure, vote for him

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

I lived in Poland when they enacted their widespread abortion ban in 2020. The only way a woman could receive an abortion was if they was either a direct threat to the mother's life, or it could be proven in a court of law that the fetus was conceived by sexual assault/rape.

2 things wrong with that. First of all, some older more conservative jesus-loving doctors were ignoring when mother's were lives were in danger and forcing the women to carry to term, regardless. I heard a bunch of stores in the news how women at risk were in hospital beds begging for doctors, but instead the hospital brought over priests to issue last rights. If the woman died, it was "god's plan". If she survived, then she wasn't really at a threat of dying. Either way, the solution was literally to pray the problem away. No repercussions to the doctor/hospital if a pregnant woman died.

Second of all regarding conception by rape, the only way a judge would rule in a woman's favor to terminate the pregnancy was if the rapist was convicted. This means that charges had to be filed, a court case takes place, and the rapist is found guilty. This does not take into accounts the delays or appeals which happen. This also all has to happen before the 3rd trimester. Also saw many news stories how lawyers were just filing motions to delay and appeal.

Many women would just leave the country to get abortions since they can travel the Schengen zone to pro-life member states. But the government caught on quick and had a pregnancy registry setup to track who was pregnant, the time frame, estimated due date, and could follow up to ensure the child was born. Last I heard before I moved back to Canada was that the newly elected left-leaning government was going to retract the law, but a quick google search shows the ban remains in place and the retraction never happened.

Not sure how this will work in the US if the ban happens, but likely it will go the same way. In my city where I lived there were 27 deaths in the first few weeks of the abortion ban. Plastering it on the front page news didn't change much either.

I don't understand how any woman of childbearing age who fully understands what it is like to physically be a woman and the trials her body goes through could vote for Trump. That is, unless you hate immigrants, black/brown/asian people so much that you are willing to put your own sex's lives at risk. I guess then, sure, vote for him

I think only an extreme bible thumper female who values the good book over her own body and rights could justify it.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Next week:
"Okay, so we all agree that it sucks that the election has come down to Fangorn, and we know that they're probably going to vote against the pro-deforestation candidate once the votes are actually counted... although they are pretty independently-minded, and early vote returns do have an alarming gender gap. But we have to continue to allow the Ents to count their votes according to their own internal systems and timelines, even if that creates a lot of uncertainty for everyone else."

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

A "fundamentals basis"? What does that mean? Wouldn't that imply based on policy positions? Wouldn't Project 2025 pretty much make this election a complete loss for either party trying to run under that policy structure? I think there are a lot of reasons that this election is close and much of it is appealing to the inherit racism and xenophobia of Americans and the desire to turn the United States into a Christian caliphate by those same voters. Fundamentally, that is completely incongruous with America is supposed to be about or what the constitution says. Trump only lets those voters say those quite parts out loud without the fear of repercussions they faced in the past.

Fundementals is looking at things like unemployment and how the economy is doing rather than polling to predict the outcome of an election rather than individuals policy and polling. Usually it is more predictive than polling far out from the election. Essentially it’s a measure of how tilted the playing field is before the start. In those measures this election should have been a cake walk for the republicans. So if they win it’s in spite of Trump rather than because of Trump.

Now a lot of that is all based on pre-2016 theory and may or may not apply in the current post truth world we live in.

Your comment about project 2025 is interesting. Does it exist because the cultists will vote for Trump no matter what and because Trump has no interest in governing or does it exist because it’s the collective will of the party. In the absense of Trump Indony think the oligarchs backing the party can push through such an anti-worker platform to blue coller males or at least the platform wouldn’t have been written down like it is.

Also a candidate interested in governing would have more influence on the policy they are running on.

So while Trump hurts the republicans chance of winning he also enhances the likelihood of extreme policy being implemented because he runs on personality and feelings not policy.

[activeStick]

I really like Mayor Pete. Guy is super quick on his feet and knows his stuff. Not sure why he doesn't seem to get more press or support from the Dems.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1853290455636603192

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by activeStick

I really like Mayor Pete. Guy is super quick on his feet and knows his stuff. Not sure why he doesn't seem to get more press or support from the Dems.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1853290455636603192

Sadly the US will never elect a gay man in my lifetime.

Time and time again he presents so well

[direwolf]

Mayor Pete would make such a great President.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Sadly the US will never elect a gay man in my lifetime.



Time and time again he presents so well

I believe that but also don't believe it at the same time. No doubt he'd get the entire left vote IMO. And then even if we assume that the right doesn't vote for him, I'd believe that he'd get a good amount of votes from the undecided. I don't know, it just doesn't make much sense at all to not vote for him mainly because he loves another man.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Sadly the US will never elect a gay man in my lifetime.

Time and time again he presents so well

And you're still selfishly clinging to life. What a jerk.

[Paulie Walnuts]

1 day away.

Even if big Disco Don loses, I can't see him conceding at any point.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

1 day away.

Even if big Disco Don loses, I can't see him conceding at any point.

I am expecting it to be so close that mandatory recounts could hold up the result for a week. Which is probably the worst if that happens and Trump loses, because it will give them time to fabricate more conspiracy theories. When things are close, it's easier to sell because small scale inconsistencies can seem to make a bigger difference in the results.

I am hoping Harris wins convincingly enough that they can call it tomorrow night, because a week of being too close to call will fester resentment in the MAGA if Trump loses a close one.

[activeStick]

I'm predicting Trump leading tomorrow in the evening, let's say around 10:30PM EST, in a few of the key swing states, but with only like 60% reporting or something like that with projections indicating that if he was able to hold those key swing states that he's leading at that time, he'd win the election. That's when he'll come out and just declare himself the winner and then use that narrative later (that he had already won based on the numbers) to argue and bring to the courts the results if it happens that Harris overtakes him later.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Mayor Pete would make such a great President.

He’s in the perfect role. He’s the best communicator they have.

[FlamesAddiction]

Do they count the early votes, mail in, and absentee ballots ahead of time?

That was one thing I thought was dumb about the recent BC election. In the ridings that were too close too call after the voting, it was like damn, I guess we are going to have to count those early votes because they might actually make a difference. I wondered why they didn't do that before hand and then they could add them immediately.

You just know if some states are too close and then they break out stored boxes of early ballots, people in the MAGA crowd will assume shenanigans.