American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

So most likely not a MAGA looking to destroy votes.

Just like Antifa ?

If you are Magaer are you going to write a bunch of MAGA crap on it? Maybe I’m giving those idiots too much credit for being smart.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

States in play: Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), Virginia (13), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Florida (30), Arizona (11), and Nevada (6). Without those states the count is Harris 213 and Trump 189. So, lots of iterations that can go into play. Saying losing any one state is a death nell to either campaign is silly.

Florida and Virginia are not in play unless it's a total landslide. And if it is, those states won't matter at all.

That really is the point, to identify which states are the tipping point. If the Dems have enough support to win some of the other toss-up states, then really no way to see them losing MI, WI or PA.

You should play around with the numbers. I can't see any plausible scenario where the Dems lose one of those states but win some of the other ones. Win Goergia but lose Michigan? Not likely at all.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

Well this is just false, if you look at the federal reserve data.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

You said wages, but now you're talking about household income. Those are two different things, as the latter is more influenced by demographic factors than the former.

Regardless, the 8.22% growth in Real Household Income in Trump's term is good, but it's still well below where it was before he took office. In Obama's 2nd term, Real Household Income grew 11.8%, nearly 50% faster than under Trump.

[Josh]

With a Multnomah County Jury, if it were some MAGA nut they'd throw the book at them (rightfully so). Since its a Gaza protest, likely a slap on the wrist.

Unless this becomes a federal case, then all bets are off.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Trump has the best chance based on polling numbers. You would have to ignore all of the data out there to think he is not the clear leader at the moment and recognize that a large percentage of the United States population is dumb as a post and will let their social media guide their lives. Trump and his followers own social media right now, so they have a massive advantage there. For that reason I think Trump has the inside track to 270, with probably 302 being the final count.

Having said all of that, there could be some problems brewing for Trump that could dramatically shift the needle. Number one, Trump is already laying the groundwork for a challenge in Pennsylvania, so they must have some inside data that shows them trailing there and likely to lose. Number two, the Puerto Rican vote becomes important. Florida has a big population of Puerto Rican voters, as does Pennsylvania, which could swing this vote in close Florida and Pennsylvania races. We already know Pennsylvania is in play, but it appears that Florida may have just been dragged into the mix as a state up for grabs. If Florida and Pennsylvania fall off the Trump train, Harris will win unless she collapses in Wisconsin and Michigan.

That's a lot of things that have to fall in Harris' favor. It is possible, but I still think Trump is going win by an electoral college edge and lose ugly in popular vote.

As I mentioned previously, there are two hugely important ballot amendments that Democrats are going to come out in droves for. Legal weed. No laws restricting abortion access. Add in the chance to flip Rick Scott out of office and there's a very big chance that Florida could be a toss up at the very least. I know it's been trending red for a while, but there could be a lot of Trump apathy on the right and a strong blue turnout at the polls.

[puffnstuff]

Trump went and cosplayed as a garbageman today...and he decided to keep the safety vest on for his speech. The vest and his white shirt somehow make his clown makeup look even worse than usual.
His handlers may actually hate him letting him do that...

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by DownInFlames

Palmer?

According to Trump he was so impressive he got 10 votes.

Talking about the terminator.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Just like Antifa ?

If you are Magaer are you going to write a bunch of MAGA crap on it? Maybe I’m giving those idiots too much credit for being smart.

MAGAers take pride in their obstruction work and celebrate it.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

As I mentioned previously, there are two hugely important ballot amendments that Democrats are going to come out in droves for. Legal weed. No laws restricting abortion access. Add in the chance to flip Rick Scott out of office and there's a very big chance that Florida could be a toss up at the very least. I know it's been trending red for a while, but there could be a lot of Trump apathy on the right and a strong blue turnout at the polls.

No, you're crazy. Florida is a slam dunk for Trump. This election is already over and there is no way anything could possibly change this late in the game. The betting line says so!



Hopefully we're celebrating "a shocker" on Tuesday.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

MAGAers take pride in their obstruction work and celebrate it.

We are splitting the profits if MAGAers catches on.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Florida and Virginia are not in play unless it's a total landslide. And if it is, those states won't matter at all.

That really is the point, to identify which states are the tipping point. If the Dems have enough support to win some of the other toss-up states, then really no way to see them losing MI, WI or PA.

You should play around with the numbers. I can't see any plausible scenario where the Dems lose one of those states but win some of the other ones. Win Goergia but lose Michigan? Not likely at all.

The Trump factor makes a lot of EC math confusing. Trump hurts Republicans in GA,VA, NC, but helps them in MI, WI, PA and FL. A moderate, generic Republican could easily win GA,VA,NC but lose MI,WI,PA. Trump could realistically lose GA,VA, and NC, but pickup some or all of MI,WI,PA.

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1851774712478683297

LMFAO he has my vote.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Shouldn't be too tough on the guy for struggling. I've done this before too. Trying to get into a cab after a night of drinking.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1851765350477754842

[Paulie Walnuts]

How many MAGA vests will be made. These suckers will buy anything. I’m going to sell merch.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Tax cuts are a systemic issue that the US government and economy has been battling since Clinton. Clinton raised taxes on the wealthy and cut taxes for businesses, families and capital gains. After that Bush came in and he cut taxes across the board. Those cuts expired under Obama but he signed an extension for those cuts to continue and subsequently made most of the Bush era tax cuts permanent. Trump came in and again imposed tax cuts. Under Biden there really hasn't been much change with some shifting in tax increases along with some tax cuts which basically balance out. Harris is campaigning on tax cuts which are essentially an extension of Trump's cuts for everyone under $400K. Harris wants to increase taxes on the rich but also provide a lot of cuts and credits to families and businesses.

The US has actually done a reasonable job of managing and controlling spending but no administration is really tackling the revenue side of things and because of that debt servicing has grown substantially.

Obama extending the Bush tax cuts was not something he wanted to do, but had little choice due to headwinds in congress. Besides, the economy was in a precarious spot as it was trying to recover from the 08 financial collapse, so any sudden change to tax policy was deemed to be risky.

Biden couldn't cancel the Trump tax cuts because he didn't have the votes in the Senate to make it happen.

Harris is running on increasing taxes on the rich and lowering them on the middle class. If she wins, how much she's able to get done depends on whether or not she gets all chambers of congress, and whether or not there are Manchin/Sinema types within her party who stand in her way. But yes I'm hoping for very significant increases in taxes for those making over 400k/year. I would hope they also look at other ways to raise revenue, such as estate taxes.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Obama extending the Bush tax cuts was not something he wanted to do, but had little choice due to headwinds in congress. Besides, the economy was in a precarious spot as it was trying to recover from the 08 financial collapse, so any sudden change to tax policy was deemed to be risky.

Biden couldn't cancel the Trump tax cuts because he didn't have the votes in the Senate to make it happen.

Harris is running on increasing taxes on the rich and lowering them on the middle class. If she wins, how much she's able to get done depends on whether or not she gets all chambers of congress, and whether or not there are Manchin/Sinema types within her party who stand in her way. But yes I'm hoping for very significant increases in taxes for those making over 400k/year. I would hope they also look at other ways to raise revenue, such as estate taxes.

I need Harris to repeal the SALT limit or atleast double it. It has been tragic for the last 7 years. Property taxes are so high and Trump capped it at $10K in order to fund the corporate tax cuts.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

No, you're crazy. Florida is a slam dunk for Trump. This election is already over and there is no way anything could possibly change this late in the game. The betting line says so!



Hopefully we're celebrating "a shocker" on Tuesday.

5.7 million votes already cast in FL, with Rs having a 45% to 34% lead.

Doesn't look good for a Harris win there. I'm not saying it's impossible, but that's a very steep hill to climb.

[Nancy]

nvm

[Josh]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

5.7 million votes already cast in FL, with Rs having a 45% to 34% lead.

Doesn't look good for a Harris win there. I'm not saying it's impossible, but that's a very steep hill to climb.

Gender gap is 54% Women & 46% Men. As my wife said (who voted for Trump in 2016).

"Women are PISSED"

[MegaErtz]

You have to bet $25 to win $1 on Trump winning Florida. People that think Florida or Texas are in play are nuts.

Harris is bet $7 to win $1 in Virginia, for context.