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Old 05-12-2025, 12:53 PM   #2281
troutman
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Originally Posted by Mickey76 View Post
Thanks for the ongoing analysis MBates.

One of the most ridiculous comments/beliefs that has been made throughout this thread is that false sexual assault claims are very rare: Making the players more likely to be guilty. This is a 100% unknowable stat. There is no way to know how prevalent it is or isn’t. Anyone who says they knowis simply lying. It may be rare, it’s probably rare, but there is absolutely no way to tell with any accuracy whatsoever how rare. So some think tank saying it’s rare because it’s seldom proven doesn’t make it true or not. The case should be solely determined on whether or not the Jury believes in this specific case that the players are guilty. Not influenced by a made up stat.
There is research:

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-...ths-facts.html

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False accusations of sexual assault are extremely rare (only 2-4%). Research demonstrates that rates of false reporting are consistent across violent crimes, including sexual assault.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21164210/

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All cases (N = 136) of sexual assault reported to a major Northeastern university over a 10-year period are analyzed to determine the percentage of false allegations. Of the 136 cases of sexual assault reported over the 10-year period, 8 (5.9%) are coded as false allegations. These results, taken in the context of an examination of previous research, indicate that the prevalence of false allegations is between 2% and 10%.
https://evawintl.org/best_practice_f...ts-percentage/

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In reality, no one knows – and in fact no one can possibly know – exactly how many sexual assault reports are false. However, estimates narrow to the range of 2-8% when they are based on rigorous research of case classifications using specific criteria and incorporating various protections of the reliability and validity of the research.
http://www.alanberkowitz.com/article...20Ch.%2016.pdf

Last edited by troutman; 05-12-2025 at 12:57 PM.
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Old 05-12-2025, 01:31 PM   #2282
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Again I get the role of the defense in this, but I HATE how it reinforces this type of bull####:

"Carnelos says that if E.M. had felt she’d been “sexually violated or assaulted that night,” she would have told her best friend."

F'n brutal. No people do not always tell their best friends, or anyone, when they are raped.
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Old 05-12-2025, 02:12 PM   #2283
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Again I get the role of the defense in this, but I HATE how it reinforces this type of bull####:

"Carnelos says that if E.M. had felt she’d been “sexually violated or assaulted that night,” she would have told her best friend."

F'n brutal. No people do not always tell their best friends, or anyone, when they are raped.
This line of "reasoning" is bad too:

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She previously estimated she was 120 pounds.

Brown says that according to her medical records, she was 138 pounds.

He pushes her on the 18-pound difference and suggests she wanted to leave the impression with the jury that she was much smaller than the men.

E.M. rejects that insinuation, and says she wasn’t weighing herself and maybe was just hoping she was still 120 pounds back then.
So, the lawyer is suggesting that at 138 pounds, she was not much smaller than the men in the room? Brown sounds like a dirt bag.

If that is a significant part of the defense of his client, he is really grasping for straws.
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Old 05-12-2025, 02:17 PM   #2284
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This line of "reasoning" is bad too:



So, the lawyer is suggesting that at 138 pounds, she was not much smaller than the men in the room? Brown sounds like a dirt bag.

If that is a significant part of the defense of his client, he is really grasping for straws.
I'd imagine they are just challenging her recollection. Because they don't want to repeat questions, Dube's lawyer is left with pretty insignificant stuff to pick at.
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Old 05-12-2025, 02:29 PM   #2285
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I'd imagine they are just challenging her recollection. Because they don't want to repeat questions, Dube's lawyer is left with pretty insignificant stuff to pick at.
So far it seems like Hart's lawyer, Megan Savard, did a lot of the heavy lifting. From what I heard, she is kind of a big deal in the defense attorney world.
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Old 05-12-2025, 02:58 PM   #2286
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The defense seems to be employing a strategy to discredit the victim's account by portraying her as unreliable. They're presenting multiple narratives to try and throw doubt any way things are framed.

If she was intoxicated, they suggest she has a "drunk fun" persona, and she was into it at the time but regrets her actions sober.

If she was sober, they claim she was fully coherent, complicit and unrealiable as she can't remember now even thiugh she was sober.

As they attack her creditibility they're also turning into a she said/they said situation to cause reasonable doubt. Saying she was asking them to do stuff and wanted to be the center of attention.
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Old 05-12-2025, 03:11 PM   #2287
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The defense seems to be employing a strategy to discredit the victim's account by portraying her as unreliable. They're presenting multiple narratives to try and throw doubt any way things are framed.

If she was intoxicated, they suggest she has a "drunk fun" persona, and she was into it at the time but regrets her actions sober.

If she was sober, they claim she was fully coherent, complicit and unrealiable as she can't remember now even thiugh she was sober.

As they attack her creditibility they're also turning into a she said/they said situation to cause reasonable doubt. Saying she was asking them to do stuff and wanted to be the center of attention.
Ya the defense does work for the defendents. Nothing surprising or unusual here.
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Old 05-12-2025, 03:48 PM   #2288
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The persecution is really on the back foot. granted 5 -1 is tough to beat, no less when they can afford the best lawyers.

It will be very interesting when McLeod is asked to testify. That will be the deciding factor. How does he respond when is is asked about inviting people into his hotel room without consent.
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Old 05-12-2025, 04:30 PM   #2289
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The persecution is really on the back foot. granted 5 -1 is tough to beat, no less when they can afford the best lawyers.

It will be very interesting when McLeod is asked to testify. That will be the deciding factor. How does he respond when is is asked about inviting people into his hotel room without consent.
The five will have coordinated their stories regardless, seems like, so I think it’ll actually be more about finding inconsistencies/slipups where the stories don’t match and anything any other witnesses (of which there was a long list of potential ones submitted) have to say which disputes their version of events.

Based on the lawyers suggestions, I think the claim will be that she asked him to.
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Old 05-12-2025, 04:33 PM   #2290
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I'll be surprised if any of the five take the stand. At most I think they'd select one with a combination of likeable+shrewd to speak for all, but how knows if any of them fit that description.
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Old 05-12-2025, 07:00 PM   #2291
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I'll be surprised if any of the five take the stand. At most I think they'd select one with a combination of likeable+shrewd to speak for all, but how knows if any of them fit that description.
Imagine trying to find the smart one in that group LOL
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Old 05-12-2025, 07:12 PM   #2292
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Imagine trying to find the smart one in that group LOL
Do we have any information about how intelligent they are?
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Old 05-12-2025, 07:18 PM   #2293
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I'll be surprised if any of the five take the stand.
I agree.

Ghomeshi did not take the stand and was acquitted.

Last edited by troutman; 05-12-2025 at 07:21 PM.
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Old 05-12-2025, 07:24 PM   #2294
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Do we have any information about how intelligent they are?
Uneducated hockey players? 20something uneducated hockey players? Probably not very. I mean Alex Formenton seems like a real f'n dummy.
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Old 05-12-2025, 07:27 PM   #2295
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I agree.

Ghomeshi did not take the stand and was acquitted.
Defence counsel would have to be on crack to put any of those meatheads on the stand.
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Old 05-12-2025, 08:09 PM   #2296
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They might have to or her account of why she made the tape goes unrebutted as well as all the facts put to her that she denies.
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Old 05-12-2025, 08:26 PM   #2297
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Nm
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Old 05-12-2025, 10:02 PM   #2298
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I'm pretty sure they raped her. But beyond a reasonable doubt? I dunno...
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Old 05-12-2025, 10:12 PM   #2299
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The defense lawyers are getting some shots in. They are going for reasonable doubt and planting a lot of seeds.
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Old 05-12-2025, 10:18 PM   #2300
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