Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[wireframe]

Originally Posted by Muta

https://twitter.com/user/status/1580939834750734336

It is terrifying that half of Alberta thinks that the UCP should continue to form government with Danielle Smith as Premier.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by wireframe

It is terrifying that half of Alberta thinks that the UCP should continue to form government with Danielle Smith as Premier.

Yeah, it's been a weird few years in this province. I grew up being frustrated and upset at how we're viewed here, and defended our people against the rest of Canada. But these days, it's a sad realization that our province is actually inhabited by a signifiant population of half wits and old, dumb conservatives that will justify a conservative vote no matter what happens.

Heartbreaking, really. We could be so much more as a province.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

That polling info doesn't really mean much without a breakdown on expected seats. The rural/urban splits will tell the full story (and even that, I don't generally trust polling data this far out of an election).

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

That polling info doesn't really mean much without a breakdown on expected seats. The rural/urban splits will tell the full story (and even that, I don't generally trust polling data this far out of an election).

While it won't tell us who would win, it does tell us there is a stunning rejection of the new premier.

[Macman]

Originally Posted by wireframe

It is terrifying that half of Alberta thinks that the UCP should continue to form government with Danielle Smith as Premier.

And a lot of Albertans simply don’t want a provincial party (NDP) that’s associated with the current Federal coalition. I wouldn’t call it terrifying either, look at it more as a process, working things through. I’m giving Smith a chance, let’s see what she does up to the election and then decide on the different campaigns come election time.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by #-3

Out of curiosity what specifically were they actions they took directly against that industry.

Dentoman is a dentist. He's talking about the fee structure.

[Ozy_Flame]

Lol

https://twitter.com/user/status/1580999654124449792

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

While it won't tell us who would win, it does tell us there is a stunning rejection of the new premier.

Yes, which is what Rick Bell - yes, even Rick Bell - points out: https://calgarysun.com/opinion/colum...p-premier-poll

For every question but one, those who think Smith will bring positive change is a much smaller group than those who think she will not.

Article content
In no question do Smith’s positives beat Smith’s negatives.

To the nose-counter, it is clear Smith has not convinced all UCP voters she’s the real deal.

“She has a lot of explaining to do, a lot of convincing to do and do even with her own supporters,” says Leger’s Ian Large.

Smith is clearly less popular than her party.

The really telling math is what decided UCP voters think of Smith.

In all the questions mentioned above there is not one question where half the UCP voters agree she’s up to the task.

This last quote sums things up well, I think, and gets at a similar idea as was for Kenney (in his case its easy to campaign, but not so easy to actually govern):

“She has to be Premier Smith,” says the man with the math.

“That’s the one who stays calm, that’s the one who doesn’t say stupid things.”

The advice to the new premier?

“It’s not talk radio. You’re the boss.”

Ouch. It’s true but the truth often hurts.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

That polling info doesn't really mean much without a breakdown on expected seats. The rural/urban splits will tell the full story (and even that, I don't generally trust polling data this far out of an election).

Splits here in the full poll:

https://legermarketing.wpenginepower...ct-12-2022.pdf

Agreed on being skeptical this far out from an election, but there's one particular thing Smith needs to be really worried about in this poll, and that is that she's starting out waaaay behind Notley on the question of who would make the better premier. Even in rural Alberta where The UCP leads the NDP by 16% overall, the difference on the 'better premier' question is within the margin of error. She trails on that question by 15% in Calgary.

And this poll was completed entirely before her introductory press conference with her 'most discriminated against' comments, so there's certainly reason to think it would be lower now than when the poll was taken.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Macman

And a lot of Albertans simply don’t want a provincial party (NDP) that’s associated with the current Federal coalition. I wouldn’t call it terrifying either, look at it more as a process, working things through. I’m giving Smith a chance, let’s see what she does up to the election and then decide on the different campaigns come election time.

before a swarm of folks start attacking you, what to you would be crossing the line for the UCP?

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by Macman

And a lot of Albertans simply don’t want a provincial party (NDP) that’s associated with the current Federal coalition. I wouldn’t call it terrifying either, look at it more as a process, working things through. I’m giving Smith a chance, let’s see what she does up to the election and then decide on the different campaigns come election time.

The ANDP are as associated with the Federal NDP as the Provincial Governments are to the Federal Government. Both NDP parties are under the "NDP" umbrella as much as the provinces are under the "Canada" umbrella. But in both cases, the Federal leader isn't the "boss" of their provincial counterpart and they don't give them marching orders in their jurisdiction.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Splits here in the full poll:

https://legermarketing.wpenginepower...ct-12-2022.pdf

Agreed on being skeptical this far out from an election, but there's one particular thing Smith needs to be really worried about in this poll, and that is that she's starting out waaaay behind Notley on the question of who would make the better premier. Even in rural Alberta where The UCP leads the NDP by 16% overall, the difference on the 'better premier' question is within the margin of error. She trails on that question by 15% in Calgary.

And this poll was completed entirely before her introductory press conference with her 'most descriminated against' comments, so there's certainly reason to think it would be lower now than when the poll was taken.

I have to wonder how much the average UCP voter even really cares about having a good leader especially since they just saw Kenney voted out and a new leader brought it. That has probably established a mindset that it is more important to win a majority than it is to have a good leader because that can be changed somewhat easily.

[Macman]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

before a swarm of folks start attacking you, what to you would be crossing the line for the UCP?

Like I said, let’s see what the new premier does and how and what effects it will have. She’s already replacing Dr. Hinshaw so let’s see what happens. She also has a new plan for Alberta to keep carbon tax credits/money.

Alberta is also a very diverse province, even when you go out to rural areas. Alberta is a vast place with many different people and it’s intertwined with urban areas more than some may think.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Yeah, it's been a weird few years in this province. I grew up being frustrated and upset at how we're viewed here, and defended our people against the rest of Canada. But these days, it's a sad realization that our province is actually inhabited by a signifiant population of half wits and old, dumb conservatives that will justify a conservative vote no matter what happens.

Heartbreaking, really. We could be so much more as a province.

Just keep in mind that the people who mock Alberta, mainly BC, Quebec and Ontario, have no better track record than we do. Much like the US the real divide is urban vs rural. And since virtually all rural areas are massively over represented and urban areas massively under represented, we end up having crappy governments that reflect the political stance of the dregs of society.

Ontario has a loser Premier who has done tons of damage and wants to privatize health care. Not quite Smith bad but nearly on par with Kenney for sure.

BC meanwhile regularly votes liberal/NDP but have horrendously incompetent provincial governments, regardless of political stance. They might be able to take some moral high ground because at least their gov isn’t socially regressive and straight out of Idiocracy but they’re not much better all around.

Don’t even get me started on Quebec. They’re practically fascist their government is so socially conservative. They’re downright racist and discriminatory is what they are.

Moral of the story is that outside of the cities, the whole country are generally a bunch of hicks when we talk rural voters. I wish I had a better word than “hick” because it triggers them and makes them angry but I can’t think of one. I can only use the term ultra conservative so many times and even then it doesn’t quite cover it. Doesn’t encapsulate the lack of critical thinking and lack of education you see in rural areas. I swear their media literacy is negative.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Just keep in mind that the people who mock Alberta, mainly BC, Quebec and Ontario, have no better track record than we do. Much like the US the real divide is urban vs rural. And since virtually all rural areas are massively over represented and urban areas massively under represented, we end up having crappy governments that reflect the political stance of the dregs of society.

Ontario has a loser Premier who has done tons of damage and wants to privatize health care. Not quite Smith bad but nearly on par with Kenney for sure.

BC meanwhile regularly votes liberal/NDP but have horrendously incompetent provincial governments, regardless of political stance. They might be able to take some moral high ground because at least their gov isn’t socially regressive and straight out of Idiocracy but they’re not much better all around.

Don’t even get me started on Quebec. They’re practically fascist their government is so socially conservative. They’re downright racist and discriminatory is what they are.

Moral of the story is that outside of the cities, the whole country are generally a bunch of hicks when we talk rural voters. I wish I had a better word than “hick” because it triggers them and makes them angry but I can’t think of one. I can only use the term ultra conservative so many times and even then it doesn’t quite cover it. Doesn’t encapsulate the lack of critical thinking and lack of education you see in rural areas. I swear their media literacy is negative.

Thanks Cecil, I completely agree. Alberta does not have a monopoly on hicks, we're probably on par with every other province to be honest. We just seem to get tarred with a different brush.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://338canada.com/alberta/map.htm

If you look at the riding map(last updated early Sept, before the Dean of Delusion took over-so probably worse for UCP now), the NDP looks to have potential in Banff/Canmore, which makes sense. Same with 2 ridings in Lethbrdge(this will be interesting, because the smaller cities aren't actually rural, and probably share more values with Edmonton and Calgary.

Lethbridge is interesting. They have voted Liberal IIRC (could be wrong) and NDP (?) in the past. The university probably skews the votes left somewhat. But it's also southern Alberta and right on the doorstep of Mormon country so about as conservative a region in Alberta as there is.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

Thanks Cecil, I completely agree. Alberta does not have a monopoly on hicks, we're probably on par with every other province to be honest. We just seem to get tarred with a different brush.

They do seem to have a monopoly on non-stop political talk though. Provincial and federal politics never (literally, never) come up in casual conversations I have in Ontario. I’m sure it happens, but anecdotally I have not experienced it. On the flip side, I get texts constantly from people in AB about politics, about Trudeau… and it was the same when I lived there. It was non-stop going back as far as I can remember.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Just keep in mind that the people who mock Alberta, mainly BC, Quebec and Ontario, have no better track record than we do. Much like the US the real divide is urban vs rural. And since virtually all rural areas are massively over represented and urban areas massively under represented, we end up having crappy governments that reflect the political stance of the dregs of society.

Ontario has a loser Premier who has done tons of damage and wants to privatize health care. Not quite Smith bad but nearly on par with Kenney for sure.

BC meanwhile regularly votes liberal/NDP but have horrendously incompetent provincial governments, regardless of political stance. They might be able to take some moral high ground because at least their gov isn’t socially regressive and straight out of Idiocracy but they’re not much better all around.

Don’t even get me started on Quebec. They’re practically fascist their government is so socially conservative. They’re downright racist and discriminatory is what they are.

Moral of the story is that outside of the cities, the whole country are generally a bunch of hicks when we talk rural voters. I wish I had a better word than “hick” because it triggers them and makes them angry but I can’t think of one. I can only use the term ultra conservative so many times and even then it doesn’t quite cover it. Doesn’t encapsulate the lack of critical thinking and lack of education you see in rural areas. I swear their media literacy is negative.

This is false. He's inept with health care but Ontario will flip from Conservative to Liberal if he tries to privatize it.

The difference between Alberta and other provinces is that they all will boot out the party in charge when they don't like them. Alberta has yet to prove they will do that unless the Conservative side splits. There are no guard rails for the UCP in Alberta right now.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

Lethbridge is interesting. They have voted Liberal IIRC (could be wrong) and NDP (?) in the past. The university probably skews the votes left somewhat. But it's also southern Alberta and right on the doorstep of Mormon country so about as conservative a region in Alberta as there is.

Ya, that'll be a tough one to predict. But if Smith keeps it up, there might just be a few options outside of Edmonton and Calgary to provide a little buffer.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Yoho

I guess if we are quoting the Beaverton.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1580982266787921920

Tell me you are clueless without tell me you are clueless