[Trade] Elias Lindholm + Noah Hanifin to Flames for D. Hamilton, Micheal Ferland, & Adam Fox

[Geeoff]

We are not going to get a significant cap saving going from Hamilton to Hanifin IMO. Be prepared for it to be similar to the Skjei deal.

[Poe969]

It may not be that big of a savings now but in a couple of years when Hamilton gets a big raise and Hanafin is locked in on a good deal it will make a huge difference

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Poe969

It may not be that big of a savings now but in a couple of years when Hamilton gets a big raise and Hanafin is locked in on a good deal it will make a huge difference

Especially when it's conceivable that Hamilton might have left as a UFA.

The Flames get Hanafin for what is hoped to be 6 prime years, assuming they come to terms with him. That's a good trade off right there.

No one can just look at the talent level of players who are involved in trades anymore. You can't even just consider their current cap hits. One must additionally look at when the next contract is going to be signed, and what they will likely look like.

The Flames likely received the better control years in this trade. getting decent players for their prime years without paying UFA prices is huge these days.

Assuming Hanafin gets signed for 6 years, the Flames have 2 good players under reasonable deals for 12 years, and gave up 4 years to get it.

People hear always comment on the Monny and Johnny deals in the same light.

[Flamescuprun2018]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Especially when it's conceivable that Hamilton might have left as a UFA.

The Flames get Hanafin for what is hoped to be 6 prime years, assuming they come to terms with him. That's a good trade off right there.

No one can just look at the talent level of players who are involved in trades anymore. You can't even just consider their current cap hits. One must additionally look at when the next contract is going to be signed, and what they will likely look like.

The Flames likely received the better control years in this trade. getting decent players for their prime years without paying UFA prices is huge these days.

Assuming Hanafin gets signed for 6 years, the Flames have 2 good players under reasonable deals for 12 years, and gave up 4 years to get it.

People hear always comment on the Monny and Johnny deals in the same light.

Completely agree.

We are unlikely to be winning this deal in year 1 as Hamilton/Ferland productivity may be better than Hanifan/Lindholm initially. But things begin to turn in year 2 when Ferland signs significant UFA deal somewhere. In year 3 we know where Fox lands and Hamilton reups to a big extension contract in 8-10 million range if his league leading D goal numbers persist.

Year 4-6 is really where our controllable assets who are much younger make this deal a winner for us from cost perspective. Hanifan also begins to show his peak potential and Lindholm is in his prime as our 1RW.

Only wildcard in years 4-6 is if Fox signs with Canes and becomes a top 2D and PP specialist.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Flamescuprun2018

Completely agree.

We are unlikely to be winning this deal in year 1 as Hamilton/Ferland productivity may be better than Hanifan/Lindholm initially. But things begin to turn in year 2 when Ferland signs significant UFA deal somewhere. In year 3 we know where Fox lands and Hamilton reups to a big extension contract in 8-10 million range if his league leading D goal numbers persist.

Year 4-6 is really where our controllable assets who are much younger make this deal a winner for us from cost perspective. Hanifan also begins to show his peak potential and Lindholm is in his prime as our 1RW.

Only wildcard in years 4-6 is if Fox signs with Canes and becomes a top 2D and PP specialist.

I pretty much agree with this, although I doubt Fox will ever be a top 2D due to lack of speed and size He could eventually become a top PP quarterback, however. The fly in the ointment for the Flames was that he had obviously indicated to the team that he would never agree to sign here, and he would have become a depreciating asset as he approached UFA status.

It would be a hilarious turn of events if Fox had a gentleman's agreement to sign with the Flames after he graduated and became a UFA. Won't happen, though, because the Flames simply don't have the room on the roster to guarantee him a spot, and I don't think he wants to move out west anyway.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

We are not going to get a significant cap saving going from Hamilton to Hanifin IMO. Be prepared for it to be similar to the Skjei deal.

Only his agent would suggest that Hanifin could get that deal. Compared to Hanifin, Skeji:

1. had arb rights,
2. had one less RFA year, and
3. had top pairing minutes.

Hanifin should come in at about 1M/yr less, for the above reasons.

[Deegee]

Hanifin at anything under 5 for long term is going to be an absolute steal IMO. Really hope a bridge type contract isn't signed.

[Flamescuprun2018]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

I pretty much agree with this, although I doubt Fox will ever be a top 2D due to lack of speed and size He could eventually become a top PP quarterback, however. The fly in the ointment for the Flames was that he had obviously indicated to the team that he would never agree to sign here, and he would have become a depreciating asset as he approached UFA status.

It would be a hilarious turn of events if Fox had a gentleman's agreement to sign with the Flames after he graduated and became a UFA. Won't happen, though, because the Flames simply don't have the room on the roster to guarantee him a spot, and I don't think he wants to move out west anyway.

Top pairing D is a highly unlikely wildcard scenario for Fox, agreed.

Equally unlikely he ends up with Canes given their budget restrictions and current mess in the front office. He will likely get traded again to East Coast team.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I very much agree with most of what you've said.

However Corsi was presented as a "possession" stat. It does not directly measure possession. Therefore the stat has been miscast and misleading from the very beginning by the way it was presented initially. I think its application and interpretation has been questionable from the very beginning and I think thats why a lot of people are skeptical of advanced stats and their value. Surely someone can compile actual possession numbers based on time spent controlling the puck. That would actually measure possession. Corsi meanwhile should have been presented as merely a shot differential and nothing else. The advanced stats people hurt their case right from the start by using stats that measure something to stand for something else.

Early in the Corsi days someone did do this work at shot attempts did correlate well for posession. The best I can find now googling quickly is a hfboards thread which has dead links to the original work.

But the concept of Corsi being a measure of posession was at least validated early on the the Corsi days. No idea if that still holds since advanced stats became a thing or of knowledge of the measurement changed the results..

[dammage79]

Ugh, just one more puzzle piece to finish off this off season and I fell very impatient in waiting to hear Hanifin is signed. And I sincerely hope trelving has the plan to make the cap space for a long term deal.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Ugh, just one more puzzle piece to finish off this off season and I fell very impatient in waiting to hear Hanifin is signed. And I sincerely hope trelving has the plan to make the cap space for a long term deal.

I feel if BT wanted a bridge deal it would 've been done already. I really hope to see 7 years on the contract.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

We are not going to get a significant cap saving going from Hamilton to Hanifin IMO. Be prepared for it to be similar to the Skjei deal.

I disagree. I don't think Hanifin is going to get much more than Brodie, if he gets any more at all.

He doesn't have arb rights. Nobody's talked about offersheets, so I assume that isn't a possibility. Not to mention, any reasonable offer sheet gets matched, and anyone who wants to give us a 1st plus for Hanifin can have him.

Lindholm got $4.85 and has done much more at this level than Hanifin, even allowing for their age difference and position.

If Hanifin comes in higher than Brodie, it's because he gave us term. 7 x $4.75 or something. Brad is pretty good at these RFA deals. It's going to ok.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

I disagree. I don't think Hanifin is going to get much more than Brodie, if he gets any more at all.

He doesn't have arb rights. Nobody's talked about offersheets, so I assume that isn't a possibility. Not to mention, any reasonable offer sheet gets matched, and anyone who wants to give us a 1st plus for Hanifin can have him.

Lindholm got $4.85 and has done much more at this level than Hanifin, even allowing for their age difference and position.

If Hanifin comes in higher than Brodie, it's because he gave us term. 7 x $4.75 or something. Brad is pretty good at these RFA deals. It's going to ok.

May be cherry picking but you would let Hanifin go for a 1st and a 3rd?

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

May be cherry picking but you would let Hanifin go for a 1st and a 3rd?

I don't see anybody lining up to give Noah Hanifin $5.8M two months after he was traded for a guy with three 40 point seasons who makes $5.75.

Anything over $5 and I would look long and hard.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by GGG

Early in the Corsi days someone did do this work at shot attempts did correlate well for posession. The best I can find now googling quickly is a hfboards thread which has dead links to the original work.

But the concept of Corsi being a measure of posession was at least validated early on the the Corsi days. No idea if that still holds since advanced stats became a thing or of knowledge of the measurement changed the results..

It was never validated. It’s early proponents claimed it was validated, but the data available back then was even more sketchy than the data now. It’s about the same as saying the product info on late night infomercials has been validated because Vince Shlomi says it’s good.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

I disagree. I don't think Hanifin is going to get much more than Brodie, if he gets any more at all.

He doesn't have arb rights. Nobody's talked about offersheets, so I assume that isn't a possibility. Not to mention, any reasonable offer sheet gets matched, and anyone who wants to give us a 1st plus for Hanifin can have him.

Lindholm got $4.85 and has done much more at this level than Hanifin, even allowing for their age difference and position.

If Hanifin comes in higher than Brodie, it's because he gave us term. 7 x $4.75 or something. Brad is pretty good at these RFA deals. It's going to ok.

I'd be pretty happy with 7 X 4.75, except that it would force Brad's hand in making another move in order to be cap compliant.

[FBI]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

I'd be pretty happy with 7 X 4.75, except that it would force Brad's hand in making another move in order to be cap compliant.

and the problem with buying Brouwer out is???

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

I don't see anybody lining up to give Noah Hanifin $5.8M two months after he was traded for a guy with three 40 point seasons who makes $5.75.

Anything over $5 and I would look long and hard.

Well that guy with three 40 point seasons would have cost a lot more than a 1st and a 3rd to get. Hanifin and Lindholm combined are exponentially more valued. I'm sure there's a lot of teams that would consider 5.8M if it meant getting Hanifin for the low cost of a 1st round pick. However, there's two things working against that. Number one is, I just don't see any team taking the risk when it comes with alienating a large number of GMs and the likelihood of the Flame just matching.

The second is that the team doesn't want to risk a high-cap hit, a first round pick+ and pissing off the other GMs for 5 years of Hanifin. If they were to offer 5.8M for 7 years, the actual compensation is two firsts, a second and a third round pick. There's a reason that the offer-sheet hasn't been used since 2013, and that took a holdout O'Reilly to sign one.

[shadowlord]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

Wasn’t the plan to shoot even from bad angle? Funnel pucks to the net and get follow up chances/rebounds, thus the high level shots and lots of high danger shots. But in the end we didn’t convert. Where did I read this?

That came from a media interview with Troy Brouwer. I think it was on garbage bag day, but GG hadn't been fired yet.

[TheIronMaiden]

Not sure if this is posted somewhere else, but capfriendly has the Flames with $4,538,290 in capspace remaining.

How many years can 4.5M Av get you? when in Hanifin supposed to become a UFA?