American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1847024907521347765

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

My point was early voting doesn't necessarily mean overall turnout will be up. It could net out to no increase at all. It could net out to a decline. Until election day it's just a number. But even if it is up, as mentioned, high turnout in an incumbent election historically is bad for the incumbent (in this case that would be Harris).

Not sure that is statistically correct. Probably not more correct than saying higher turnout traditionally favors the Democrats.

Harris is not the incumbent.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

I'm not sure what Trump has to do with an interview between Bret Baier and Kamala Harris.

The original post claimed the Fox News interview was a debacle. I challenged that statement and asked for back up. None was provided.

I just told you. What did you expect? She wasn't allowed to answer questions. The moron kept talking over her. He turned it into a debate, it was not a professional interview.

Any other company fires that clown, Fox probably gave him a raise and pays for his Botox.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

I just told you. What did you expect? She wasn't allowed to answer questions. The moron kept talking over her. He turned it into a debate, it was not a professional interview.

Any other company fires that clown, Fox probably gave him a raise and pays for his Botox.

I posted the script, can you you show me where she wasn't allowed to answer?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Not sure that is statistically correct. Probably not more correct than saying higher turnout traditionally favors the Democrats.

Harris is not the incumbent.

Technically she is not, effectively she is. It's obviously an abnormal election in a lot of ways, and that is one of them. Only reason she's here is cause Biden shat the bed in the first debate.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

People on Reddit are looking into the Polymarket thing, it's interesting. Seems one big buyer has moved it the most.


https://www.reddit.com/r/EnoughMuskS...markets_trump/


This is linked in the thread, but worth me reposting(nitter link), he actually tried to track down the whale and may have made contact. It's all...weird. But it's enough to make me say that the Polymarket data has zero reflection of voter intent.



https://nitter.privacydev.net/Domahh...97997507092901

Honest question...is this another Gamestop type of thing? Are people doing it just out of solidarity? Diamond hands?

It's utterly confusing to me why people do the things they do anymore.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

If it didn't matter than campaigns wouldn't do internals. It still matters. Is it more difficult than ever to do? Absolutely, but it's not worthless. What I think is impossible to believe in polling these days is there is such a thing as undecideds. Things are way to hyper-polarized for there to be many undecideds.

I think the internals are more focused on what needs to be talked about and where versus how many people are voting for who.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Honest question...is this another Gamestop type of thing? Are people doing it just out of solidarity? Diamond hands?

It's utterly confusing to me why people do the things they do anymore.

This may be a little too tinfoil hat for me, but I kinda suspect it is far more nefarious. Or it could be money laundering. With the people involved(Musk, Trump, Thiel et all) I think you maybe have to be a bit naive to not at least suspect some funny business.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

You guys really think millions of people have changed their minds on Trump in the last couple weeks. Not saying he wont win but these polls are nonsense

What are you talking about? Trump’s support is rising on every poll I have seen. Doesn’t mean millions have changed their mind. This happens in every election as polls are just snapshots and support rises and falls over time.

On the early voting topic, I just think it is more and more commonplace and less people wait until Election Day. High early voting numbers aren’t necessarily a signal of anything IMO.

[DownInFlames]

Two things that are going against Harris which piss me off:

1. Young men who supported Biden are less likely to vote for her. They give vague reasons like "the economy" but it's obviously veiled misogyny keeping them from voting for a woman.

2. Liberals refusing to vote for her because it would be a vote for "genocide". Even if the acknowledge that Trump would be worse for Gaza they say their conscience can't allow them to vote. #### them for being unable to see that one evil is way, way lesser than the other and keeping their conscience clean will lead to more suffering beyond their myopic single issue.

[Duruss]

Couple articles about Alan Lichtman and his 'keys':

Critism's and rebuttles of the 'keys' model. Alan sounds arrogant, but sound.
https://www.newsweek.com/allan-licht...lained-1937114

He's still backing Kamala.
https://www.newsweek.com/allan-licht...ctions-1970553

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Trump’s decline is too dangerous to ignore

We can see the decline in the former president’s ability to hold a train of thought, speak coherently, or demonstrate a command of the English language, to say nothing of policy. So why are Republicans and the press holding Trump to a different standard than Biden?

Asked at an economic forum in New York what specific legislation he would back to make child care more affordable, Trump rambled incomprehensibly for nearly two minutes without answering the question.

“Well, I would do that, and we’re sitting down,” Trump said. “You know, I was somebody — we had, Senator Marco Rubio, and my daughter Ivanka, was so impactful on that issue. It’s a very important issue. But I think when you talk about the kind of numbers that I’m talking about — that, because look, child care is child care, couldn’t — you know, there’s something — you have to have it in this country. You have to have it. But when you talk about those numbers, compared to the kind of numbers that I’m talking about by taxing foreign nations at levels that they’re not used to.”

The rest of his answer provided no clarification about a connection between import tariffs — if that is what Trump was referencing — and child-care costs. The lack of context, or even complete sentences, made his comments as clear as mud.

Yet Trump’s party has not urged him to step aside for the good of the country, as Biden’s did. And much of the press is doing the American people a disservice by treating Trump’s obvious cognitive slippage as just “Trump being Trump.”

Yes, the press has a lot to wrestle with when it comes to Trump, including his embrace of authoritarian strongmen, his refusal to vow to accept the election results, his criminal conviction and civil judgments for fraud and sexual abuse, and his racism and disparagement of women, LGBTQ people, and immigrants.

But his diminishing cognitive ability can’t be ignored. He may not be able to get a grip, but it’s long past time the news media and Republicans stop participating in the gaslighting. We can see reality with our own eyes.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/10/...s-republicans/

[direwolf]

The media’s terrible coverage is a big reason why this election is still essentially a coin toss. Constantly trying to “both sides” everything and holding Harris to a completely different standard than Trump. It’s insane.

As for young men leaning towards Trump instead of Harris, I find it crazy that people would rather destroy their country than vote for a woman for once in their lives. But that appears to be the case with many male voters, young and old. CBC did a story on this the other night and all I could do was just shake my head in disgust. What a sad, broken country. I guess it’ll be up to women to try and save American democracy. Please make it happen, ladies. You can do this!

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

I'm not sure what Trump has to do with an interview between Bret Baier and Kamala Harris.

There's an election where voters are comparing the two candidates and deciding who to vote for. Therefore you shouldn't be surprised when people get annoyed at those who are super critical of Harris for something that Trump does way more often and way more egregiously.

[MegaErtz]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

+130 really aren't great odds though, value really isn't there. Rather throw money on the Saints tonight at +130. Value would probably be there when we get over +180.

Broncos 33 Saints 10.

[Meelapo]

Has anyone watched this? This guy really just wants to be an entertainer.

Full Remarks: Donald Trump speaks at Al Smith Dinner in New York City

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Allan Lichtman is out there defending his Harris prediction...he hasn't be wrong yet, including 2016

He was wrong in 2000 when he predicted Gore.

And really, he was wrong in 2016 as well. Pre-2000 election, he said his keys predicted the winner of the election. But then when Gore lost despite winning the popular vote, he started saying that they keys can't predict the electoral college, and they actually predict the popular vote. But then he predicted Trump in 2016, who lost the popular vote.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

What are you talking about? Trump’s support is rising on every poll I have seen. Doesn’t mean millions have changed their mind. This happens in every election as polls are just snapshots and support rises and falls over time.

On the early voting topic, I just think it is more and more commonplace and less people wait until Election Day. High early voting numbers aren’t necessarily a signal of anything IMO.

I think the polls are inaccurate...I don't think Trumps support rises or falls, he has the cult, nobody is changing their mind on Trump. If the dems get the turnout they will win and if they don't they will lose. I do think all the early voting is a good sign for a large turnout...more early voting makes it easier and less time consuming to vote on election day. Are you more likely to vote if the line is 3 hours or 20 mins?

All this being said tight polls are good, they get people off the couch

IMO

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by opendoor

He was wrong in 2000 when he predicted Gore.

And really, he was wrong in 2016 as well. Pre-2000 election, he said his keys predicted the winner of the election. But then when Gore lost despite winning the popular vote, he started saying that they keys can't predict the electoral college, and they actually predict the popular vote. But then he predicted Trump in 2016, who lost the popular vote.

Thats a whole can of worms

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by opendoor

He was wrong in 2000 when he predicted Gore.

Except that Gore technically won, and Bush's brother stole the election.

This is generally acknowledged now.