2025 NHL Draft Thread

[traptor]

Originally Posted by HitterD

Indulge me if you will, as I had been a little disappointed that the Flames' second pick in the first round has now moved to 29-32 (likely 32). I took a look at the last 10 drafts, and included 2024 as well because its so fresh in my mind still. The data, to me, does not show any correlation in value difference between 22-32, and its a pretty mixed bag in general. 2 conclusions, I think, is that there are players to be had in this range, but few superstars (as expected), but very little difference in whether they can be found at the top end of the range vs the bottom. (2015 being the best example of a "top heavy" grouping at the top of the range. The other, being that there is typically on average 1-2 top 6 forwards/top 4 d taken in this range per draft.

This is obviously a pretty surface-level analysis, and so many other factors are at play, including the often overlooked role in player development after drafting. Its one thing to scout and draft the best players, and another to develop them properly to reach full potential (this is a role that the player must embrace as well as the team being adept at it). I think the Flames have done a pretty good job showing that they may be in the upper tier in both categories, so while I think that finding a way to get into the top 8-12 in this draft is still likely a good strategy to target a more top-end potential center, I'm also more confident that the Flames have a decent likelyhood of getting at least 1 top 6 C in this draft, and the difference in their success may not be tied to the pick dropping from 22 to 32.

2014 GP PTS Last Season
1 22 Kasperi Kapanen 527 222 2024-25
1 23 Conner Bleackley
1 24 Jared McCann 668 398 2024-25
1 25 David Pastrnak 756 833 2024-25
1 26 Nikita Scherbak 37 8 2018-19
1 27 Nikolay Goldobin 125 46 2019-20
1 28 Josh Ho-Sang 53 24 2018-19
1 29 Adrian Kempe 630 401 2024-25
1 30 John Quenneville 42 5 2019-20
2 31 Brendan Lemieux 307 74 2023-24
2 32 Jayce Hawryluk 98 27 2020-21

2015
1 22 Ilya Samsonov 200 5 2024-25
1 23 Brock Boeser 554 434 2024-25
1 24 Travis Konecny 646 476 2024-25
1 25 Jack Roslovic 526 260 2024-25
1 26 Noah Juulsen 157 17 2024-25
1 27 Jacob Larsson 172 24 2022-23
1 28 Anthony Beauvillier 631 271 2024-25
1 29 Gabriel Carlsson 81 18 2022-23
1 30 Nick Merkley 41 15 2021-22
2 31 Jeremy Roy
2 32 Christian Fischer 523 137 2024-25

2016
1 22 German Rubtsov 4 0 2019-20
1 23 Henrik Borgstrom 111 26 2022-23
1 24 Max Jones 284 64 2024-25
1 25 Riley Tufte 24 3 2024-25
1 26 Tage Thompson 448 325 2024-25
1 27 Brett Howden 431 141 2024-25
1 28 Lucas Johansen 9 2 2023-24
1 29 Trent Frederic 338 109 2024-25
1 30 Sam Steel 418 142 2024-25
2 31 Egor Korshkov 1 1 2019-20
2 32 Tyler Benson 38 3 2022-23


2017
1 22 Kailer Yamamoto 315 137 2024-25
1 23 Pierre-Olivier Joseph 194 40 2024-25
1 24 Kristian Vesalainen 70 5 2021-22
1 25 Ryan Poehling 283 95 2024-25
1 26 Jake Oettinger 251 5 2024-25
1 27 Morgan Frost 310 147 2024-25
1 28 Shane Bowers 13 0 2024-25
1 29 Henri Jokiharju 407 97 2024-25
1 30 Eeli Tolvanen 345 154 2024-25
1 31 Klim Kostin 190 53 2024-25
2 32 Conor Timmins 159 46 2024-25

2018
1 22 K'Andre Miller 368 132 2024-25
1 23 Isac Lundestrom 337 84 2024-25
1 24 Filip Johansson
1 25 Dominik Bokk
1 26 J. Bernard-Docker 144 24 2024-25
1 27 Nicolas Beaudin 22 6 2021-22
1 28 Nils Lundkvist 183 44 2024-25
1 29 Rasmus Sandin 309 116 2024-25
1 30 Joe Veleno 306 81 2024-25
1 31 Alexander Alexeyev 80 8 2024-25
2 32 Mattias Samuelsson 212 43 2024-25

2019
1 22 Tobias Bjornfot 134 15 2024-25
1 23 Simon Holmstrom 200 79 2024-25
1 24 Philip Tomasino 209 94 2024-25
1 25 Connor McMichael 237 108 2024-25
1 26 Jakob Pelletier 86 29 2024-25
1 27 Nolan Foote 30 9 2024-25
1 28 Ryan Suzuki 2 0 2024-25
1 29 Brayden Tracey 1 0 2021-22
1 30 John Beecher 130 21 2024-25
1 31 Ryan Johnson 44 7 2024-25
2 32 Shane Pinto 210 107 2024-25

2020
1 22 Hendrix Lapierre 84 31 2024-25
1 23 Tyson Foerster 166 83 2024-25
1 24 Connor Zary 117 61 2024-25
1 25 Justin Barron 156 43 2024-25
1 26 Jake Neighbours 211 96 2024-25
1 27 Jacob Perreault 1 0 2021-22
1 28 Ridly Greig 170 69 2024-25
1 29 Brendan Brisson 24 8 2024-25
1 30 Mavrik Bourque 74 25 2024-25
1 31 Ozzy Wiesblatt 5 1 2024-25
2 32 William Wallinder

2021
1 22 Xavier Bourgault
1 23 Wyatt Johnston 246 177 2024-25
1 24 MatthewSamoskevich 79 31 2024-25
1 25 Corson Ceulemans
1 26 Carson Lambos
1 27 Zachary L'Heureux 62 15 2024-25
1 28 Oskar Olausson 4 0 2024-25
1 29 Chase Stillman
1 30 Zachary Dean 9 0 2023-24
1 31 Logan Mailloux 8 5 2024-25
1 32 Nolan Allan 43 8 2024-25

2022
1 22 Nathan Gaucher
1 23 Jimmy Snuggerud 7 4 2024-25
1 24 Danila Yurov
1 25 Sam Rinzel 9 5 2024-25
1 26 Filip Mesar
1 27 Filip Bystedt
1 28 Jiri Kulich 63 24 2024-25
1 29 Maveric Lamoureux 15 3 2024-25
1 30 Brad Lambert 6 2 2024-25
1 31 Isaac Howard
1 32 Reid Schaefer

2023
1 22 Oliver Bonk
1 23 Gabriel Perreault 5 0 2024-25
1 24 Tanner Molendyk
1 25 Otto Stenberg
1 26 Quentin Musty
1 27 Calum Ritchie 7 1 2024-25
1 28 Easton Cowan
1 29 Theo Lindstein
1 30 Bradly Nadeau 3 1 2024-25
1 31 Mikhail Gulyayev
1 32 David Edstrom

2024
1 22 Yegor Surin
1 23 Stian Solberg
1 24 Cole Beaudoin
1 25 Dean Letourneau
1 26 Liam Greentree
1 27 Marek Vanacker
1 28 Matvei Gridin
1 29 Emil Hemming
1 30 E.J. Emery
1 31 Ben Danford
1 32 Sam O'Reilly

Looking at this my takeaways are:

• Takes about 4-5 years to develop them on average into an everyday NHLer
• Feels like chances of getting an NHLer is solid, roughly around 50%
• Chances of hitting an elite player are low obviously. Roughly around 5%. This might be skewed low because the more recent draft haven't had time to pop off.
• It does feel like the elite player occur more frequently in the front half here. Pasta, Tage, Konecny, Ottenger and Johnston all taken in first half of the set.

[HitterD]

Originally Posted by traptor

Looking at this my takeaways are:

• Takes about 4-5 years to develop them on average into an everyday NHLer
• Feels like chances of getting an NHLer is solid, roughly around 50%
• Chances of hitting an elite player are low obviously. Roughly around 5%. This might be skewed low because the more recent draft haven't had time to pop off.
• It does feel like the elite player occur more frequently in the front half here. Pasta, Tage, Konecny, Ottenger and Johnston all taken in first half of the set.

Yes all of that I think is fair, and I would still have preferred 22 over 29-32 as i would have given the Flames a better shot at someone higher on their list as well, which i'm starting to trust is a pretty good list compared to other teams.

I'm tempted to do a similar look at pick #18 (say 3-4 spots on either side of #18) to see as well. Ultimately, at this point i'm most curious to identify if the Flames may be better to try to package picks to move up in this 2025 draft to increase the chance to nail down that top-line player rather than drafting 2 mid-level players at best.

[shutout]

An interesting article about the most used draft cliché BPA (Best Player Available)

https://hockeywilderness.com/news-ru...afting-r30700/

... inclined to lean towards a "BPA" approach. It's not always that simple, of course. For example, there is rarely a clear-cut "Best Player Available." A team's scouts also might genuinely judge a prospect to have more or less talent than the consensus ...

... Wild director of scouting Judd Brackett ... He's a scout who tends to take fallers -- players with significant talent who slip through the cracks, for one reason or another. By contrast, Chuck Fletcher's regime, led by head scout Brent Flahr, loved late risers: players who were generally off the radar as first-rounders, but made massive strides in the months leading up to the draft.

Statistically, there was an argument to make that Rossi was the best prospect in his class

Wild did what any BPA team would do: Grab the most talent at the most premium position.

Rossi was the best player Minnesota could have drafted. He's arguably still better than anyone chosen after him. But talent isn't everything. Even production isn't everything. The upcoming split between the Wild and Rossi is about more than that.

What if Rossi isn't, and never was, a good fit for the organization?

If they think that, then this is an issue they should have seen coming.

can't make up for the original sin of taking a player the front office never seemed enamored of in the first place. It's been five years since that draft. Five years of development for Rossi, and five years of the organization pouring resources into him, only to be on the verge of selling him at a discount. If that happens, it's hard to conclude anything other than the team wasted the time of everyone involved, including themselves, and the fallout of going BPA might end up setting back their Stanley Cup aspirations.

[UKflames]

2019
1 22 Tobias Bjornfot 134 15 2024-25
1 23 Simon Holmstrom 200 79 2024-25
1 24 Philip Tomasino 209 94 2024-25
1 25 Connor McMichael 237 108 2024-25
1 26 Jakob Pelletier 86 29 2024-25
1 27 Nolan Foote 30 9 2024-25
1 28 Ryan Suzuki 2 0 2024-25
1 29 Brayden Tracey 1 0 2021-22
1 30 John Beecher 130 21 2024-25
1 31 Ryan Johnson 44 7 2024-25
[/B]2 32 Shane Pinto 210 107 2024-25[/B]

Current flavour of the day in the trade thread taken at 32 I see

[cral12]

Mega update on our 2025 dedicated Prospect Profiles page at Upside Hockey via Sandman and I:

Sandman's prospect tiers (21 of them) ranking 128 prospects AND

185 prospects profiled!

And more to come!

https://www.upsidehockey.com/prospec...spect-profiles

[mile]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Realistically the Flames could leave the draft with 2 of these 14 C's. One of the first group at 18, and one of the second group at 29-32.

Jake O'Brien C 10.20
Roger McQueen C 10.70
Carter Bear C 13.60
Brady Martin C 13.80
Braeden Cootes C 17.67
Cullen Potter C 18.89
Benjamin Kindel C 21.78
Cole Reschny C 22.63

Ivan Ryabkin C 26.67
Jack Nesbitt C 30.43
Cole McKinney C 31.38
Jack Murtagh C 31.43
William Moore C 32.33
Milton Gästrin C 33.14

Hopefully they can find some guys with true top 6 potential out of that group.

Hope we can find the Robert Thomas or Wyatt Johnston of this group

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Maybe that person thinks so.

But it is more of an indication - and reminder - that these rankings are personal opinions only, and opinions differ. This idea that there is always a BPA is silly, and that if someone likes a player that 'the consensus' has a little lower, it isn't 'going off the board', it is simply having a different opinion about kids, and this is very far from being an exact science.

Hopefully, by now, most people are at the point that when they say BPA, they mean BPA according to the Flames' list. That's at least what I mean by BPA. After 2024, and generally strong drafting since the Sutter era, there are only a few posters on this board that argue the Flames' scouting staff isn't legitimately one of the better staffs in the league.

Todd was also interviewed pre-draft last year and he basically said they were probably going to take a defensive prospect both because the system needed it, even though Conroy had addressed some of the need through trades, and because there was a high number of good quality defenders in the top of the draft, and it was just a matter of ranking them properly.

Fortunately, this year, there are a number of Cs "ranked" around 18, so there's a good chance that the Flames' true BPA will likely be a C when they pick.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by shutout

An interesting article about the most used draft cliché BPA (Best Player Available)

https://hockeywilderness.com/news-ru...afting-r30700/

This is a recipe for poor drafting and sounds a lot like the years that Sutter ran the show. He drafted for identity, toughness and what he wanted the team to be, and ignored a lot of talent because it just might not fit his mold.

I do think character, coaching, strength, toughness is important, but teams shouldn't pass on the prospect they've ranked BPA for those characteristics, unless those characteristics are part of the package.

[Sandman]

Draft Thoughts (Aces Edition, Vol. 9):

C/LW Carter Bear (6'0",176lbs)
Everett (WHL): 56gp/ 40g/ 42a/ 82pts, +33, 77 PIM

The Everett Silvertips were the best team in the WHL's regular season, but were unfortunately eliminated in round # 2 of the playoffs in 7 games by the Portland Winterhawks. One of the main reasons the 'Tips didn't get a chance to play for the Championship was that they lost their best player, C Carter Bear (ranked # 10 NA Skaters, # 15 by McKenzie, # 22 by Button) to a season-ending injury on March 7th, which turned out to be a ruptured achilles tendon. Bear, who wore an "A" for Everett, played mostly on the wing this season, and has age working against him, with a Nov. 4, 2006 birthday, but he's one of the hardest-working players in this draft-class; he's a gritty, physical winger with sky-high motor, smarts and skill, and a stifling two-way presence. Bear is hard-nosed and rugged, gets inside position on opponents with regularity, and uses physicality to gain advantages, create space, and win possession. Engaging early and often, he throws big hits, and competes hard in all of the hazardous areas of the ice- and with his dogged determination, he comes up with the puck much more often than not. He is energetic and highly competitive, and drives an unmatchable pace with a motor that never quits. Bear plays through contact, is more than willing to take a hit to get the job done, and never gives up on a play- putting in multiple efforts to win pucks in battle. With intensity and tenacity, he forechecks with purpose and desperation, attacking puck-carriers at full-throttle, catching his prey often with thunderous bodychecks, and causing nightmares for defensemen in retrieval as a constant irritant.

Like a true goal-scorer, he has the instincts to locate splinters of space in the slot to unleash his dangerous wrister, drives the net for rebounds, and plants himself in-front- never being deterred by having to battle for positioning, while cleaning up garbage in the crease. He scores goals like the pros do, with soft-hands in-tight, and keen hand-eye coordination for tips; he owns a strong catch-and-release wrister that can stun goalies, a sharp snap-shot with precision in tight-areas, and a blistering one-timer. He will need to upgrade the power in his release though, and work on his shot-selection for the next level, but he scores most of his goals in-close anyway. Bear drives play, and exhibits high-end vision, awareness, and creativity, with a talent for manufacturing space for himself and his teammates; he baits pressure with patient delays, and forces defenders back off the rush to make room at the top of the zone. He can spot passing seams that few others could, and gets pucks to teammates on the other side of traffic, with saucers over sticks, and slips between feet, and the soft-touch to put the perfect amount of weight needed behind his feeds- right to his target's blade. He can transfer the puck across the ice and through traffic, or through the crease to a recipient waiting in high-danger. He exerts a fantastic knowledge of where to be on the ice to create offense, get shots off, and be a consistent viable option for teammates.

Bear's puck-pursuit and details in all three zones are elite; he disrupts retrievals, forechecks with intensity, intercepts breakouts, snuffs entries, and is a stalwart in his own zone. Displaying keen awareness, he flies in the face of his attackers with ferocity to apply near- insurmountable pressure, and to remove every stitch of space and time. He is consistently well-positioned, and anticipates well to get into lanes, intercept passes, lift sticks, and poke pucks off of sticks- he will also put his body on the line to block shots. Bear launches himself into battles, throws his weight around to dislodge pucks, and skates into hands to separate man from puck. Skating-wise, his stride is a work in progress as far as his mechanics go, and his edgework is slightly deficient, but he generates excellent straight-line speed off of his high-end work-ethic and tenacity. His puck-skills are more than adequate, showing good control at high speed, the ability to bob and weave through traffic, tight puck-protection, and he can even walk defenders at times. Though age works against him, and he's not an ideal size for someone who plays his style, he has the grit and skill to be a top-line winger in the NHL some day, and will surely be picked in the first-round.

[DuckSauce]

It sounds like it would be so fun to have both Martin and Bear.

[The Original FFIV]

Originally Posted by YyjFlames

Hopefully, by now, most people are at the point that when they say BPA, they mean BPA according to the Flames' list. That's at least what I mean by BPA. After 2024, and generally strong drafting since the Sutter era, there are only a few posters on this board that argue the Flames' scouting staff isn't legitimately one of the better staffs in the league.

Todd was also interviewed pre-draft last year and he basically said they were probably going to take a defensive prospect both because the system needed it, even though Conroy had addressed some of the need through trades, and because there was a high number of good quality defenders in the top of the draft, and it was just a matter of ranking them properly.

Fortunately, this year, there are a number of Cs "ranked" around 18, so there's a good chance that the Flames' true BPA will likely be a C when they pick.

“Best” by its nature is subjective. But as you point out, drafts can be deep in position. and organizations don’t have the same weighting on what attributes a player has (size, skill, character, etc.). And as indicated in the Rossi case, best player doesn’t mean best fit. So maybe the bpa philosophy should be renamed to best fit available, given that teams aren’t homogenous and value players differently.

[Bingo]

Updated with Button's list.

11 rankings now

Player has to be on 4 to be ranked.

 	Player	Position	Average
1	M Schaefer	D	1.09
2	Michael Misa	C	2.00

3	James Hagens	C	4.09
4	Porter Martone	RW	4.36

5	Anton Frondell	C	5.64
6	Victor Eklund	LW	7.64
7	C Desnoyers	C	7.82

8	Roger McQueen	C	10.18
9	Jake O'Brien	C	10.27
10	Jackson Smith	D	10.82
11	Radim Mrtka	D	11.55

12	Brady Martin	C	13.09
13	Carter Bear	C	14.55
14	Lynden Lakovic	LW	15.91

15	Braeden Cootes	C	17.70
16	J Carbonneau	RW	17.80
17	K Aitcheson	D	18.80
18	Logan Hensler	D	19.00

19	Malcolm Spence	LW	21.30
20	Cole Reschny	C	21.56
21	Cullen Potter	C	21.60
22	Benjamin Kindel	RW	22.30
23	Cameron Reid	D	22.70
24	Cam Schmidt	RW	23.89

25	Ivan Ryabkin	C	25.71
26	Bill Zonnon	Lw	26.30
27	J Ravensbergen	G	26.38

28	S Boumedienne	D	29.22
29	Blake Fiddler	D	29.67
30	Jack Nesbitt	C	31.38
31	Jack Murtagh	C	31.50
32	Milton Gästrin	C	31.75
33	William Moore	C	32.43

34	Cole McKinney	C	34.11
35	Ryker Lee  	RW	34.17
36	J Ihs-Wozniak	RW	36.71

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by stemit14

McQueen ranked in the 2nd round. Wow. Is that an indication of how serious his injury is?

I have no idea how much weight he put into McQueen's injury and the overall amount of time missed for his development. That's definitely its own can of worms there.


I will preface this by saying that I generally do agree with Western Hockey Scout's opinions on players in general. I enjoy reading his tweets. However, no scout is right 100% of the time, regardless of how experienced he is. With that being said, here is his opinion on McQueen:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1907152667882770770


Not sure that embedded properly as social media is blocked on my firefox, so here is the link:
https://x.com/Pete___Hughes/status/1907152667882770770

[Paulie Walnuts]

I am not sold on McQueen. The injuries, and scouting reports to me make it seem like he projects to be a winger in the NHL. I haven't watched him play, but from what I have read on the player.

The big red flag for me from the one report was he makes too many safe plays instead of putting passes into high danger areas.

[Jiri Hrdina]

What centres in this draft would you take over him?

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

What centres in this draft would you take over him?

At our spot?

Reschny, Martin, O'Brein,.

Not sure if any of trhem make it to our pick tho..but McQueen will and I would say hard pass on him. Ryabkin is available would be my pick.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

I am not sold on McQueen. The injuries, and scouting reports to me make it seem like he projects to be a winger in the NHL. I haven't watched him play, but from what I have read on the player.

The big red flag for me from the one report was he makes too many safe plays instead of putting passes into high danger areas.

That could be because the coach insists on playing it safe too, right?



At the Flames spot in the draft - even with the injury concerns - I would feel good about drafting McQueen.



1) Shot at a #1 Center
2) Shot at a #2 Center with size and reach who can hopefully become a hard player to play against in all zones.
3) A winger with size and skill (how much skill is debatable)
4) A bust (mostly due to injuries)


I think McQueen gets picked ahead of where the Flames are set to pick anyway. If he falls, I would love for the Flames to pick McQueen. Heck McQueen + Ryabkin with their 2 first round picks would be 2 decent lottery balls at a 1st line center. If they both bust, that does hurt, but the Flames are likely going to find other players. I don't really see a #1 center left. They either project as 2nd line centers or wingers, unless they outperform expectations. It can happen, but it rarely happens.


I am going to go back to watching more videos again, so maybe I will change my mind afterwards, but I would be thrilled with McQueen at this point. Concerned? Absolutely... but thrilled nonetheless.

[Knut]

If McQueen drops to 18. I think you have to take him. There are red flags, but that is true of all the players in that range. Tough to pass up a potential dominant Center.

[Jiri Hrdina]

If not for the injuries many believe he would have been a top 5 or even top 3 pick this year.

[Monahammer]

If you had told me last year we could potentially draft McQueen and Ryabkin this year, I would wonder how we got two top 5 picks.