[PGT] Calgary Civic Election Results Discussion

[Regulator75]

Originally Posted by SebC

I found this interesting:

Youth Can Vote mock election results (http://www.calgarysun.com/news/calga.../15739301.html)

41% Nenshi
25% McIver
22% Higgins

Actual election results (http://election.gov.calgary.ab.ca/)

40% Nenshi
32% McIver
26% Higgins

On the other hand...

I note that they didn't have very large sample sizes at all for the aldermanic polls. Regardless, here is the council they selected (actual winners in brackets when not the same):

Ward 13: Jenkins (Colley-Urquhart)

Full results here: http://www.youthcanvote.com/?p=1361

It's too bad that DCU won in my ward, she is part of the problem in city hall (just as McIver was).

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

There's a few things I don't get:
- They can't say why they're recounting until the candidates know. What would that change if they told the public at the same time?
- They refuse to recount Ward 9, with a much smaller vote spread. Why?
- Why is the official name for Billy the Butcher allowed like that? No quality control for legal names or anything?

You're allowed to put a nickname on the ballot. So "Ric" instead of Richard, "Sandy" instead of Alexander and that sort of thing.

I was a little surprised that they let him put that on there, but then again if that is what he is known as then it should be allowed. Policy and what-not aside, how cool would it be to have an alderman named Billy the Butcher?

[kermitology]

Plus he could actually be a butcher in which case there isn't anything offensive about it, it's a literal truth.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by kermitology

Plus he could actually be a butcher in which case there isn't anything offensive about it, it's a literal truth.

He is a butcher and to give the guy a plug his shop is in Avenida. I go there fairly often and he has some great meats. If you like to BBQ and want to spend an extra buck or two, its worth the extra stop. Also, Billy is a Flames fan, so he should get a little shout out here on CP!

[calf]

Originally Posted by kermitology

Plus he could actually be a butcher in which case there isn't anything offensive about it, it's a literal truth.

Same deal as Stan The Man Wacziak in Ward 9, I'm guessing

[You Need a Thneed]

Ward 14 is being recounted because more votes were counted than there were ballots distributed to the polling stations. Something fishy going on there, me thinks.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Ward 14 is being recounted because more votes were counted than there were ballots distributed to the polling stations. Something fishy going on there, me thinks.

WOW! That sounds like a huge scandal!

It was a weird situation there anyway though. People went home at one station hearing that there were not enough ballots, but there ended up being enough? I'm not sure how the results could be considered fair with that type of thing.

[Table 5]

I love the jesus-like halo around him in his family photo. I think it means he's good.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Slava

WOW! That sounds like a huge scandal!

It was a weird situation there anyway though. People went home at one station hearing that there were not enough ballots, but there ended up being enough? I'm not sure how the results could be considered fair with that type of thing.

From the rumblings out of that ward on twitter during the election, this doesn't surprise me. There was some sketchy things going on there.

I know Shawn Kao was on twitter constantly showing his opposition to some of the tactics being used and there seems to be rumblings tied to Craig Chandler.

Take it for what it is, but it doesn't surprise me at all.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

From the rumblings out of that ward on twitter during the election, this doesn't surprise me. There was some sketchy things going on there.

I know Shawn Kao was on twitter constantly showing his opposition to some of the tactics being used and there seems to be rumblings tied to Craig Chandler.

Take it for what it is, but it doesn't surprise me at all.

For those of us not in that ward, what kinda sketchy things were going on there? Voter intimidation? Ballot stuffing?

[firebug]

Word is that 10 ballot bundles that were counted as '50' only contained '35' ballots.

Recount did not change the result of Ward 14.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/calgary/sto...-fourteen.html

[Bigtime]

Was this posted yet?

[Regulator75]

Hahahaha!

[getbak]

This morning, the City released the total breakdown of votes for each voting station in the city: http://www.calgary.ca/docgallery/bu/...ng_station.pdf

This clarifies the voting distribution even more than the ward-by-ward numbers we've already seen. DJ Kelly has taken the numbers and mapped the top 3 mayoral candidate's numbers: http://djkelly.ca/2010/10/fun-with-m...te-vote-share/

McIver was basically strong south of Glenmore and a little bit east of Deerfoot. Higgins strength was east of Deerfoot north of Glenmore. Nenshi destroyed the others in the core, and was also strong in the NW and far NE (while being strong enough city-wide to win all but three wards).


The Herald has a breakdown of how the voting for both Alderman and Mayor went in each ward and what it took for each Alderman to win: http://communities.canada.com/calgar...r/default.aspx

As suspected, Farrel won Ward 7 because she is strong in the inner city neighbourhoods, but not so much further out.

I live in Ward 9, so I found its numbers interesting. It's probably the best example of the Deerfoot/Glenmore split in the city. The polls that are north of Glenmore and West of Deerfoot went heavily toward Nenshi and Carra; the polls east of Deerfoot and/or south of Glenmore were dominated by McIver and Pal. Almost every poll in the ward was a landslide one way or the other, but in the end was only slightly tilted towards Nenshi and Carra.

It will be interesting to see if they redraw the wards in an effort to better groups similar neighbourhoods together.


The numbers also show the voting in the advanced polls. It's interesting that Higgins was pretty strong in the advanced voting.

I wonder if it's an indication that her interview on City actually swayed public opinion against her that strongly?

The split in the advanced numbers (Ward 0) were Higgins - 33%; McIver - 32%; Nenshi - 27%. The final totals were Higgins - 26%; McIver - 32%; Nenshi - 40%. Based on that, and assuming that the advanced voters were a general cross-section of the electorate, it looks like McIver's support was solid and fixed and Nenshi picked up not only the support that Barb lost, but basically all the drop out candidates' support as well.

[stevinder]

My map from the Mayoral results:


MayoralResults by srp775, on Flickr

Nenshi: Purple
Higgins: Light Blue
McIvor: Red

Individual Ward Maps: http://bit.ly/diQYCW