The Gambling Thread - Page 11 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

rubecube · 09-20-2010, 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GirlySports

wow that's really early!

You take too many road teams

Yeah, I won't actually throw any money down until Thursday or Friday. I might make an exception with the Pittsburgh game. That looks like one that could start to move.

By my calculations, road teams were 4/16 ATS with 3 push games in week 1, so that turns into 4/13. In week two they've gone 7/15 ATS. That equals out to 10/28, or 28%. That's actually low I think. I remember reading somewhere that road teams usually hit at around 40% ATS, so I don't put a whole lot of stock into home field advantage unless it's a straight bet.

GirlySports · 09-20-2010, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rubecube

Yeah, I won't actually throw any money down until Thursday or Friday. I might make an exception with the Pittsburgh game. That looks like one that could start to move.

By my calculations, road teams were 4/16 ATS with 3 push games in week 1, so that turns into 4/13. In week two they've gone 7/15 ATS. That equals out to 10/28, or 28%. That's actually low I think. I remember reading somewhere that road teams usually hit at around 40% ATS, so I don't put a whole lot of stock into home field advantage unless it's a straight bet.

Home dogs are always 65%

GirlySports · 09-20-2010, 08:08 PM

So I'm still ok. That 49ers fumble at the end saved my halftime-fulltime bet for now.
But I might not make it to 36.5.

Would be my luck if I lost a bet that was worth 1.33

GirlySports · 09-20-2010, 09:33 PM

Figures, I lose by .5 a point, by 1 yard! I knew that was going to happen when I tacked on the over.

FML.

rubecube · 09-20-2010, 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Figures, I lose by .5 a point, by 1 yard! I knew that was going to happen when I tacked on the over.

FML.

That sucks. That stupid muffed punt looks to have ruined my spread too.

GirlySports · 09-20-2010, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rubecube

That sucks. That stupid muffed punt looks to have ruined my spread too.

NEVERMIND, looks like we both won if this call stands!

Football is so weird!!!!!

rubecube · 09-20-2010, 09:49 PM

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!!!!

GirlySports · 09-20-2010, 09:50 PM

FUUUUUUUUU NEVERMIND! I hate football!

I can still win with an NO FG though but it has to be in regulation.

GirlySports · 09-20-2010, 09:56 PM

WOO! What a fluke.

What kind of kick was that!?

rubecube · 09-20-2010, 09:56 PM

Congrats girly. That was lame.

GirlySports · 09-20-2010, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rubecube

Congrats girly. That was lame.

That was really lame! This is so dumb sometimes!

HOOT · 09-21-2010, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rubecube

Any team with Derek Anderson as their QB is in big trouble, especially playing the early game on the East coast, which Arizona has always had trouble with.

Coming back in a little late but once I realized they weren't playing at home my mind changed pretty quickly. For some reason in my head I had this as a home game for the Cards.

Beerfest · 09-21-2010, 04:32 PM

Made a ticket on Sunday.
Took the Colts and the over and the Saints and the over.
Both teams won and both games went over..Saints only won by 3...needed them to win by 4 or more..lol.

Traditional_Ale · 09-21-2010, 05:31 PM

I freaking love the tags in this thread!

henry07 · 09-22-2010, 12:18 AM

how early in the week do you guys actually start ot take a look at which games to take? I usually wait till friday evening/ saturday morning to make my picks. i was 6/2 this week and lost out on the stupid parley on the saints game frek!!! i guess thats nfl for ya!

GirlySports · 09-22-2010, 07:24 AM

We need to add a tag called "blind stabs in the dark"

I start to look at the lines on Thursday.

rubecube · 09-22-2010, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by henry07

how early in the week do you guys actually start ot take a look at which games to take? I usually wait till friday evening/ saturday morning to make my picks. i was 6/2 this week and lost out on the stupid parley on the saints game frek!!! i guess thats nfl for ya!

I like to look at the lines as soon as they come out so I can judge how much they've moved when I actually make my picks. I usually don't put any money down until Friday at the earliest, unless there's a spread that I like and think might move.

henry07 · 09-22-2010, 07:32 PM

I take a quick peek on tuesday too but by the time friday rolls around i usually forget what the line was at. still early in the season so i think i might experiment for the next 3 weeks and make the picks early in the week. well see how i do

HOOT · 09-23-2010, 06:42 PM

rube do you ever play Toto?

rubecube · 09-23-2010, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HOOT

rube do you ever play Toto?

No, I think all BCLC games are a scam.