Main Camp Day 1 - Kylington will not take part of first day of training camp

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

1 X $5.5
2 X $5.0
3 X $4.5
4 X $4.0

take your pick, Mikael

I see your point, but I can’t see him picking anything but the 4x4. Too rich for me. I think it needs to be more like 2yrs x$4, or 4yrs x $2 for it to make sense for the Flames.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

I see your point, but I can’t see him picking anything but the 4x4. Too rich for me. I think it needs to be more like 2yrs x$4, or 4yrs x $2 for it to make sense for the Flames.

Here's how I came up with the numbers (then rounded down):

35: $5.5
36: $4.5
37: $4.0
38: $3.5

Hard to imagine he's going to get LESS than those numbers

[memphusk]

Calgary shall keep a large dinosaur collection.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Here's how I came up with the numbers (then rounded down):

35: $5.5
36: $4.5
37: $4.0
38: $3.5

Hard to imagine he's going to get LESS than those numbers

We can quibble with the numbers, but my point is that a longer term deal needs to be more deeply discounted. Given the original choices, the 4x4 would be clearly the best for Backlund.

I think even in a 1 yr deal, he will take a pay cut, but that is just my opinion.

[HighLifeMan]

Jordan Staal should be the comparable and he signed for 4 years @ 2.9M

If Backlund isn't willing to take something similar (with the captaincy) then he can move on.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

1 X $5.5
2 X $5.0
3 X $4.5
4 X $4.0

take your pick, Mikael

That is just too much money. The Flames would seriously handicap themselves cap wise at those numbers. I would rather use that money on a long term deal for Zadorov than Backlund. I am not anti Backlund at all, I just don't think he is the best choice given his age and contract situation. Also, if they are giving him the C I would rather he be here for multiple years than just one for continuity sake. His game is going to start falling off, I would be ok with 3x3, at the most 3x3.5. You compared Andersson as also being here for a while but nowhere near as long as Backlund, nor has he been part of our leadership group very long. I don't see the comparison there.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Jordan Staal should be the comparable and he signed for 4 years @ 2.9M

If Backlund isn't willing to take something similar (with the captaincy) then he can move on.

I agree with this, but I think it is also worthwhile pointing out that within the next year or two a cap hit of $4.0 m will likely be the going rate for any halfway competent third-line centre.

[GioforPM]

Staal is a year older and has not matched Backlund's production over the last 5 years. So it's a close match but I think Backlund can do a little better.

[Enoch Root]

I agree that Staal is a great comparison, but Staal had been about a 0.5 PPG player in his last 5 years leading up to the new contract, while Backlund has been a 0.6 PPG player, which would roughly be worth $1M per year or so more. I would also add that Staal has been significantly more injury prone, and has played 250 more games (3 entire seasons).

Also, the environment is changing rapidly, and contracts this year are factoring in a cap hike going forward. If Staal made sense at 4 X $2.9M, Backlund makes sense at 4 X $3.75 - $4M

Backlund is a better player. Full stop. 4 X 4 is a pretty decent deal, IMO.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Staal is a year older and has not matched Backlund's production over the last 5 years. So it's a close match but I think Backlund can do a little better.

Maybe slightly more, sure, but it's only a 19 point discrepancy over the last three years combined and that's with Backlund having a career year last season. It's also only a 7 month age gap too which at this point really means nothing.

4x3.25M sounds like the a palatable number for both sides.

[Heavy Jack]

4 x 3 - super close to the Staal deal makes a lot of sense to me; Backlund has proven time and again how great he is taking young players under his wing and turn them into better versions out there

Mangiapane
Tkachuk
Dube

All come to mind and I know there are others missing; I still think he has that ability in spades and would be a great player to pair up with Pelts and/or Coronato to continue that trend. Say what you want about Backs but the dude is captain material regardless of all the variables at play, if he signed a 3 or 4 year commitment to the team I’d happily see him named team Captain.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Maybe slightly more, sure, but it's only a 19 point discrepancy over the last three years combined and that's with Backlund having a career year last season. It's also only a 7 month age gap too which at this point really means nothing.

4x3.25M sounds like the a palatable number for both sides.

But, Backlund's career year should definitely also be a factor. Staal's production has consistently declined over the last two seasons. Backlund's has not. As of today he is clearly a better, more productive player than Staal.

Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

[Saqe]

The term should be max three years at his age. He'll get paid a bonus based on being a leader (maybe captain) but something like 3.5 million x 3 years should be max he gets.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Maybe slightly more, sure, but it's only a 19 point discrepancy over the last three years combined and that's with Backlund having a career year last season. It's also only a 7 month age gap too which at this point really means nothing.

4x3.25M sounds like the a palatable number for both sides.

As I said, it's 0.6 PPG vs 0.5

And Backlund having a career year last year is an argument in his favour, not against. Staal is slowing down and his production is declining, Backlund isn't.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

But, Backlund's career year should definitely also be a factor. Staal's production has consistently declined over the last two seasons. Backlund's has not. As of today he is clearly a better, more productive player than Staal.

Sent from my moto g stylus 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

While you are not wrong, that is when teams get into trouble. If Backlund wants to use his career year at 33/34 years old to drive contract negotiations then you have to move on. That type of production should not be the expectation. I have serious doubts any team on the open market would be willing to go 4 years with Backlund.

The prior two years combined Staal actually outscored Backlund which also cannot be discredited.

[Enoch Root]

anyone who thinks Backlund will get a deal around 3 X $3.5 or 4 X $2.9 is living in dreamland. Not happening.

[868904]

Originally Posted by memphusk

Calgary shall keep a large dinosaur collection.

New arena to be built in Drumheller!

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

anyone who thinks Backlund will get a deal around 3 X $3.5 or 4 X $2.9 is living in dreamland. Not happening.

He's 35 by the time the contract comes into effect there are pretty much no evidence of any long term deals bigger than that at that age - unless you're the elite of the elite.

There are 11 2+ year 35+ contracts in the entire NHL right now.

Ovechkin - 5 x $9.5M
Letang - 6 x $6.1M
Malkin - 4 x $6.1M
Suter - 4 x $3.6M
Fleury - 2 x $3.5M
Carter - 2 x $3.125M
Varlamov - 4 x $2.75M
Goligoski - 2 x $2M
Reeves - 3 x $1.35M
Derek Ryan - 2 x $900k
Giordano - 2 x $900k

Backlund shouldn't be expecting 3-4 years x $5M+, there is no real precedent for it at his age.

He's 35 years old, projects to be your 3rd line center, and for his career is 44 points per 82 games. 3-4 years at $3.25M-$4.0M would be more than fair with all that considered IMO.

35 year old season: $6M
36 year old season: $4-4.5M
37 year old season: $2-3M
38 year old season: $1-1.5M

That works out to 4 between $3.25M and $3.75M. That seems fair. Plus if he wants to win then the best bet is to actually take a bit less to help the team build more strength around him.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

anyone who thinks Backlund will get a deal around 3 X $3.5 or 4 X $2.9 is living in dreamland. Not happening.

Ok, then he can go get more somewhere else. The Flames can't be paying their 3rd line C more with the other contracts they have.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

He's 35 by the time the contract comes into effect there are pretty much no evidence of any long term deals bigger than that at that age - unless you're the elite of the elite.

There are 11 2+ year 35+ contracts in the entire NHL right now.

Ovechkin - 5 x $9.5M
Letang - 6 x $6.1M
Malkin - 4 x $6.1M
Suter - 4 x $3.6M
Fleury - 2 x $3.5M
Carter - 2 x $3.125M
Varlamov - 4 x $2.75M
Goligoski - 2 x $2M
Reeves - 3 x $1.35M
Derek Ryan - 2 x $900k
Giordano - 2 x $900k

Backlund shouldn't be expecting 3-4 years x $5M+, there is no real precedent for it at his age.

He's 35 years old, projects to be your 3rd line center, and for his career is 44 points per 82 games. 3-4 years at $3.25M-$4.0M would be more than fair with all that considered IMO.

35 year old season: $6M
36 year old season: $4-4.5M
37 year old season: $2-3M
38 year old season: $1-1.5M

That works out to 4 between $3.25M and $3.75M. That seems fair. Plus if he wants to win then the best bet is to actually take a bit less to help the team build more strength around him.

You went through all that to come up with a number about half a million lower than mine. And I'll bet mine ends up closer.

My guess (on a 4 year deal) is $3.95 AAV